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Patrick, your MNTA article is in Seeking Alpha. This may help push the price up on Monday
http://seekingalpha.com/article/262726-momenta-set-up-for-profitable-2011?source=yahoo
However, who is contributor "M. E. Garza"? Did he seek your permission before posting it on Seeking Alpha?
Quote:
I am no financial analyst, so this might look like a novice's calculations.
You could say that again. If you haven't done so already, I would recommend you spend some time with the ReadMeFirst file. You failed to adjust your mL sales lower to take into consideration sales lost to other approved products in your scenarios. In addition, you're assuming that no matter what MNTA earns in EPS it deserves a 12 or 15 multiple. In addition, your estimated EPS for MNTA is too high for 2012 and beyond as you failed to factor in taxes (MNTA will likely start paying federal/state income taxes sometime in Q1 2012 as it burns thru its NOL's). I think its easier to understand MNTA's value by using a sum-of-the-parts calculation (mL + mC + FOB's + M118 + M402 + Net cash/AR's + IP) versus applying some multiple to EPS.
Yes, I am guilty of making hasty calculations. However, I have read the read-me-first. I may have to re-read it
Nowehere in the read-me-first are projected calculations like I was trying to do. Yes, let us ignore the multiples. Because those multiples are only useful if the FDA outright rejects T-Enox and we know that it is going to be years before it is approved. So, in that case MNTA has a steady income from M-Enox.
There is still some value in this exercise. Since you have a financial background, maybe you can help with correcting any incorrect assumptions / calculations.
So, strictly for this year based on the following assumptions:
1. No tax implications for 2011
2. Approximately $18 million expense / quarter
3. Approximately 68% profit margin and 45/55 profit sharing between MNTA and NVS
4. Approximately 53 million shares
5. Approximately $200 million sales / quarter as sole generic -- gives us about $0.82 EPS / quarter ((200 * 0.68 * 0.45) - 18) / 53
6. Approximately 10% royalties once there is a second generic.
7. Approximately $100 million sales / quarter with T-Enox. (simply assuming it is halved, even after considering that the price might come down a little as MNTA/NVS may have an edge over TEVA as the first generic) -- Gives us a loss of about $0.15 / quarter (18 - 100 * 0.10) / 53.
8. Approximately $2.5 million milestone payment from NVS to MNTA in July of 2011 if M-Enox is still the sole generic. This adds about 5 cents to the 3rd quarter.
9. No additional income from Copaxone and partnerships in 2011
Using the following assumptions let us look at the following scenarios:
Scenario 1: Sole generic until July 1st.
EPS for the year = 0.82 + .82 - 0.15 - 0.15 = $1.34
Scenario 2: Sole generic until Oct 1st.
EPS for the year = 0.82 + .82 + .82 + .05 - 0.15 = $2.36
Scenario 2: Sole generic until Jan 1st 2012.
EPS for the year = 0.82 + .82 + .82 + 0.82 + .05 = $3.33
Now, does that look correct to you?
I would appreciate it if you could help me figure out what the earnings for 2012 would be after taking taxes into question for 2012 and keeping the rest of the assumptions the same?
I think this will help people greatly trying to figure out how much new money to put into MNTA on a monthly / quarterly basis as long as M-Enox is the sole generic. I know it will certainly help me. That was the purpose behind this exercise for me.
When you have corrected the above calculations and then added the calculations for 2012, you can add your post to the read-me-first so people don't have to spend the time doing these calculations.
Thanks
Make that 1400 MAY $16 contracts.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/os?s=MNTA&m=2011-05-20
Ok, so which one of you bought 1200 MAY $16 contracts today? Is that a bullish sign?
MNTA, ABT, ARRY!
The intro message to the Biotech Values has a read-me first document for each of the above three stocks.
I have been looking into MNTA the last 3 months and I have gradually built a position of about 1500 shares in MNTA since the Feb conference call (accumulated from 13.10 to 15.80). In addition, I have some LEAP 2012/2013 calls and some speculative short term calls and some written puts. (So, if the price were to drop, I would be accumulating more shares from the written puts). So, needless to say I am fully invested in MNTA and possibly more than I should be.
I will be looking into acquiring some ABT through written PUTS in the next few months. I may also look at some $40 LEAP 2013 calls.
I just started researching ARRY. I read the transcript of one of their earnings calls on Seeking Alpha where the management said that their valuation of all the programs would add up to at least $800 million. Yet, their valuation is 1/5th of that. Nearly half of their $170 million valuation is cash. I am not sure I understand why there is such a disconnect. Is the fear here that they have too many things going on in Phase 1 or 2 that they might run out of money before they ever get the drug to market? But the partnerships are with some really big companies. Wouldn't they step in buy ARRY at some point instead of letting their research money all go to waste?
Also, my thanks to Dew Diligence and others who post here. I have been learning a lot here.
Finally, do you have a read-me first document for these companies because you believe these three represent the best "biotech values" in the market right now? If, after I have invested in these three I have additional funds that could be invested, what other companies should I look at i.e. Biotechs that have a un-justifiably low valuation compared to their potential?
Thanks
Come on MNTA, release a PR saying that you just wrapped up a great quarter and that you expect EPS to be around $0.90c or more
When IPGP pre announced, their stock went up $20 in a day. I will be happy with even a $1 - $2 bump.
In the worst case if TEVA does get approval for their Lovenox genric, how long before it can start selling it? i.e. if they get approval today, can they get to market by end of April?
Also, what is the Sandoz / MNTA agreement about the second generic? Is that 45% profit agreement good until a second generic comes to market or a second generic gets approved? In other words if TEVA gets approval today, does that 45% profit end today?
Thanks.
I tell you MNTA is in the wrong business. If they were not a biotech company, but instead took hotel reservations online, with $1 EPS / quarter they could be a $800 stock (OPEN Table)
Hear! Hear! Is that another 77c do you think? Or possibly higher because the weekly scripts counts was trending higher this year?
You got your volume at the close. It went up from about 500k shares to 663k in the last 10 minutes of trading. However the stock only went up from 15.70 to 15.85. Why is that? That kind of volume should have pushed it over 16. Was that some short covering? Well maybe tomorrow we will have the capitulation of the shorts. I am hoping
An FDA Chemist makes $215,000 in two MNTA trades -- once in 2007 when its ANDA was rejected and then in 2010 when it was approved.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704471904576231000918221870.html?ru=yahoo&mod=yahoo_hs
Maybe he made a recent MNTA purchase knowing that MNTA's copaxone is to be approved and this is probably what alerted the SEC Here's hoping that this was the case. I can then take 2011 and 2012 off
TEVA / MNTA News. TEVA lost 2% to $ 49.31. An unknown company is beginning the process of starting a clinical trial of a generic version of Teva's MS blockbuster Copaxone. The issue came up from a Cowen analyst at its health-care conference in Boston . The analyst said he had heard some clinicians have been contacted about a study, something Teva confirmed, but neither know who is running the study or its design. Teva is currently battling multiple generic challengers, with a court trial beginning in September.
Any ideas what this company might be? Thanks