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Meister, Perhaps part of the issue is the disconnect between the names of the brands and the name Castle Brands. It's still new and not as iconic as some of the majors.
Doesn't almost everything taste good with a fine bourbon?
And YOU could be doing the groundwork by asking for Jefferson's versions which you do not see on the shelf. That's what Funman and $oldier do all the time.
For those interested in learning about bourbon in general, there are a series of podcasts at: http://www.bourbonpursuit.com/
Hey, sounds like a deal. Will last longer than a couple bottles.
Sounds like a call to the distillery might be a great place to start. Perhaps the barter arrangement I mentioned to Funman.....
Grizz, One source is:
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/ctix/insider-trades/buys
But don't anticipate seeing any buys there any time soon. Menon and Leo already have control.
Barter is alive and well.
That's your new assignment: settingup a rudimentary e-commerce page for them, or at leasta display page with images and prices.
If you can part with them. Lol
I'm sure you know people who'd want them.
So, if the store won't at least make an ad hoc arrangement to sell you shirts and ship them, perhaps Lakefun can. You two should get your heads together.
If I have to come up with all the ideas, then you guys should at least send me a Jefferson's shirt. Size XL please.
You could also paint the pontoon boat to look like a Jefferson's Ocean bottle. That's more than the work to buy the shirts, but sure distinctive. Might get your neighbors asking what it's about.
Perhaps you might do like Funman and buy Jefferson's shirts for everyone in the family. Walking billboards.
Added a few shares today
Cyna related. You'll see. http://ir.baystreet.ca/article.aspx?id=208&1458558081
FDA Approved This Drug for an Unmet Need That Is Now 21x Larger Than Previously Thought
Monday,March 21,2016
This past November, the FDA approved ‘NARCAN’, a nasally-administered version of naloxone, for opioid overdose. Prior to this, naloxone was only available as an injection, which limited its real-world use.
The maker of NARCAN is Opiant Pharmaceuticals (OPNT), an $18 million company addressing a naloxone market likely worth $1.3 billion, not $60 million - as reports of sales of the injectable naloxone drug suggest [1].
Drugs that are effective as injections are sometimes underutilized and limited in their real-world application for reasons ranging from convenience to access, as is the case with injected naloxone. When these underutilized drugs are reformulated and effective in oral or intranasal form, they often expand sales and market penetration.
Figure 1, below, shows a massive uptick in sales of drugs, like Pfizer’s (PFE) ‘Viagra’ for erectile dysfunction or Purdue Pharma’s ‘Oxycodone’ for pain, after the pharmaceuticals were reformulated from injection to oral delivery.
Figure 1: Sales Ballooned After Needed Drugs Were Made Available In Convenient and Accessible Form
Our research suggests that the market has underestimated the true size of the naloxone market by a factor of 21x. This creates a significant arbitrage opportunity in owning Opiant Pharmaceuticals (OPNT), who owns the only FDA-approved non-injection form of naloxone – NARCAN.
Opiant’s NARCAN was launched in late Q1 2016 in parallel to (i) an uptick in new government spending on naloxone, (ii) increased private investment and (iii) CVS and Walgreens announcing that naloxone would be made available over-the-counter in 35 states this year. On the basis of a conservative market penetration, we peg fair value for OPNT shares at $17. OPNT most recently traded just shy of $10 per share. If our estimates are met, owning OPNT represents potential upside of 77%.
Cynapsus’ Sublingual Apomorphine Helps Explain Opportunity for Opiant’s Intranasal Naloxone
Before Civitas - the maker of an inhaled version of apomorphine - was acquired by Acorda Therapeutics (ACOR) for $525 Million, investors had assumed the total addressable opportunity for apomorphine was <$100 Million.
Cynapsus (CYNA), who is now in late-stages of testing a sublingual formulation of apomorphine, was then valued at $50 Million, because peak sales of injected apomorphine – branded ‘Apokyn’ – were just $50 Million worldwide. Cynapsus had conducted surveys of neurologists that clearly showed utilization of the injected apomorphine was in the single digits because patients requiring the drug had difficulty preparing the injection.
Investors grossly underestimated the addressable market for a convenient form of apomorphine. It wasn’t until Acorda bought inhaled-apomophine maker Civitas for more than half a billion dollars that investors finally started paying attention to the arbitrage in Cynapsus’ valuation (as shown in Figure 2, below). Cynapsus peaked at a valuation over $250 Million last year.
Figure 2: Reformulated Apomorphine Buoys CYNA Shares After Market Validation from Civitas Acquisition
Opioid overdose is an epidemic in the U.S. Emerging companies like Elite Pharma (ELTP) are attempting to curb the opioid abuse with deterrent technology, but the only effective therapy to rescue an individual who has overdosed on opioids – which includes illicit drugs like heroin and prescription painkillers – is naloxone. Opiant Pharmaceuticals (OPNT) owns the only non-injected form of naloxone approved by the FDA.
FDA Report Suggests IMS Health Grossly Underestimated Size of Naloxone Market in 2014
IMS Health pegged sales of naloxone at $60 Million in 2014, but a flurry of data from the FDA, the CDC and other impartial sources suggest this grossly underestimates the actual size of the opportunity for a convenient and widely-accessible form of naloxone.
The FDA reports that naloxone makers - which include Amphastar (AMPH), Mylan (MYL) and Hospira (owned by Pfizer (PFE)) – increased the price of the injected drug to $30 on average, for a total of 3.2M vial sales in 2014 [2]. Total sales of naloxone were therefore $96M, compared to IMS Health’s estimate of $60M. This clearly shows that IMS Health under-estimated the size of the naloxone market by a factor of 1.6x in 2014.
Historically, Lack of ‘Layman-Friendly’ Naloxone Limited Its Real-World Use
The problem is access. Syringe-administered naloxone is limited in use to first responders. Often, by the time first responders arrive on the scene of an opioid overdose, the patient has already died, making availability of the [injected] naloxone redundant. Figure 3, below, clearly shows that a ‘layman’ version of naloxone is necessary.
Figure 3: Overdose Deaths Have Risen 4-Fold Since 2001 To Epidemic Proportions
Here’s Why The Addressable Market For Naloxone Is $1.3 Billion in 2016, or 21x Larger Than Industry Reports Suggest
Guidelines from the American Society of Addiction Medicine suggest that naloxone should become a standard script accompanying the 260 million opioid scripts written every year in the US [3].
More than 7% of patients prescribed opioids are considered at high risk for abuse, according to a study published in the Journal of American Medical Association [4]. In our model (Figure 4, below) we assume that 7% of the 260 million opioid prescriptions dispensed are to patients with high-risk for abuse and require a naloxone co-prescription. A price of $75 per NARCAN kit (the “special interest” pricing offered to government buyers) would mean that the market size for NARCAN is $1.3 billion in 2016, or more than 21x larger than the $60 million reported by IMS in 2014.
Figure 4: Market for Opioid Overdose Could Be 21x Higher Than IMS Data Suggests
Here’s further proof the market is grossly underestimating the size of naloxone for opioid overdose:
The U.S. Federal Government Is allocating $133 Million and tripling government purchases of naloxone to 400,000 Units
kaleo raised $150 Million from PDL BioPharma to support commercialization of ‘auto-injected’ naloxone, branded ‘EVZIO’
The Clinton Foundation agreed to subsidize the cost of EVZIO. They recently added NARCAN to the list of medicines that they’re making more affordable to those who need it but cannot access due to out-of-pocket cost.
Adapt Pharma, OPNT’s commercialization partner, raised $95 Million to “in-license and commercialize specialty pharma drugs in the United States”. All funds were raised from personal investment from the group’s founders (more on Adapt later). The only product Adapt seems to have in-licensed and commercialized since inception is NARCAN for opioid overdose.
CVS & Walgreen said they would make naloxone available over-the-counter (OTC) in 35 States in 2016
The most direct evidence that the size of the naloxone market being grossly underestimated comes from existing industry players:
Amphastar is scrambling to develop an intranasal naloxone because the Company realizes this will greatly expand sales of their naloxone franchise. Amphastar has been criticized for selling an ‘improvised’ nasal kit which has been shown to be ineffective in as many as 26% of patients.
Before OPNT’s NARCAN was approved by the FDA, Indivior, a $1.1 Billion dollar company who was also developing a nasal-spray naloxone, expected peak sales of their drug to be $100 Million.
Sarah Potter, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, valued Indivior’s nasal naloxone at $160 Million if commercialized in 2016. Ultimately, Indivior’s nasal naloxone was rejected by the FDA over concerns of efficacy. Indivior’s failure to win FDA approval left OPNT as the only player with a non-needle form of naloxone with regulatory approval.
OPNT Fair Value is $17/Share, or 77% Higher Than Current Market Price
OPNT received a $2.5 million milestone payment from partner Adapt Pharma in March 2016 for the first commercial sale of NARCAN in the US. We expect calendar year 2016 sales to come in at $12 million [5].
OPNT currently trades at 1.3x EV/Sales (on a forward basis, assuming 2016 sales of $12 Million) compared to specialty pharma peers Valeant (VRX) and DepoMed (DEPO), at 2.6x. If OPNT were priced in-line with its peers, OPNT shares would be worth 77% higher than they are today.
Opiant Pharmaceuticals is developing a pipeline of drugs based on its expertise in addictive behaviors. The company expects to report Phase 2 results for their National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA) sponsored cocaine use disorder drug in Q1 2017 [6]. If successful, we believe this study will draw collaboration interest from larger partners that will bring the drug-candidate to market, akin to Adapt commercializing NARCAN in exchange for a royalty and $55 Million in potential milestones payments to OPNT.
Figure 5: OPNT Valuation Completely Discounts ANY success with Pipeline Drug Candidates For Other Large Unmet Needs
What are the risks to owning Opiant Pharmaceuticals?
In Opiant’s 10-Q the Company discloses that it will need to raise additional capital to move its pipeline of drug candidates forward. However, historically, the Company has been able to develop products, notably NARCAN, through non-dilutive profit-interest sales and research grants. Options issued to management will have a dilutive effect on the number of shares outstanding, however, this has been balanced by value-creation, including a $55M+ licensing deal with Adapt Pharma and regulatory approval of their lead product. Follow-on drug candidates are de-risked, relatively speaking, since naloxone is both well-understood from an activity and safety viewpoint. Further, Opiant has proven its ability to navigate the FDA drug pathway.
Why Own OPNT Right Now? Because the market will correct.
We believe OPNT’s quotation on the OTCQX has led to an inefficient valuation of the Company. Further, we believe the market has grossly underestimated the size of the naloxone market for a layman-friendly and widely accessible form of naloxone, eg. nasal spray form. Investors familiar with MannKind (MNKD) might recall the maker of an inhaled version of insulin sporting a multi-billion dollar valuation on the premise that some patients would prefer this formulation over injection. So why wouldn’t investors assign an $18 Million market cap Company a higher valuation as it tackles a burgeoning unmet $1.3 Billion need with a disruptive formulation of a proven drug?
As Cynapsus and countless other mis-valued companies have shown, the market eventually corrects. OPNT’s commercialization partner Adapt Pharma brought NARCAN to market in late Q1 2016. Q2 results create a catalyst for OPNT and a reason to own the Company right now. Shares trade just below $10 but are worth upwards of $17, in our view, pointing to potential upside of 77%.
Key Takeaways:
Naloxone is an effective treatment for opioid overdose; however, its real-world use is limited when administered as an injection
In November 2015, Opiant’s (OPNT) NARCAN became the first and remains the only FDA-approved naloxone administered as a nasal-spray, versus competitors who all require needle injection
Reformulations of effective drugs from injection to oral or nasal spray form have historically resulted in expansion of the reformulated drug’s sales, often 10-fold or greater.
Our estimates suggest naloxone market size is actually $1.3 billion, versus the misconception that it is only $60 Million
NARCAN was commercially launched in February 2016
Misconception of nasal-spray naloxone market size creates an opportunity in owning OPNT at recent market prices
OPNT has potential upside of 77%, with a compelling risk profile
References & Endnotes
[1] http://www.foxbusiness.com/features/2015/04/21/amphastar-and-others-are-providing-life-saving-naloxone-products.html
[2] http://www.fda.gov/downloads/Drugs/NewsEvents/UCM454757.pdf
[3] http://prescribetoprevent.org/wp2015/wp-content/uploads/1naloxone-rev-8-14.pdf
[4] http://archinte.jamanetwork.com/article.aspx?articleid=1840033
[5] http://ir.baystreet.ca/article.aspx?id=195
[6] http://finance.yahoo.com/news/opiant-pharmaceuticals-inc-reports-fiscal-123000286.html
Jeffersons Ocean Cask Strength sighting.
So, I was in a Viginia ABC store last night and I got to hold a cask strength bottle of Jefferson's Ocean in my hands. Price $100, which is a bit less than the $105 at Caskers but I still did not spring for it.
I did persuade a guy who was looking for something for his brother in law to drink, to buy a regular bottle of Jefferson's at $29.99. He didn't feel his BIL was worth the higher rank Jeff's, which were $52 for reserve, $78 for Groth and $85 for Ocean.
NR, Thank you for that validation.
Unless that buyer split the orders up to reduce such suspicion.
Don't spend your ROX shares, where the odds are better than house odds anywhere in Vegas.
Hope you're a big winner there, so you can fund both of your IRAs this year. I converted my Traditional over to Roth a few years ago, when we had that nice tax deferral incentive to do so.
If you send me your email during Happy hour today (4-5 pm, when we get to send PMs, even as free members) I have something to mention to you. I will send mine if I remember.
And good tax-planing for us to buy at this low a level, especially in our Roth (no future tax on our outsized gains) or traditional IRAs.
Has anyone NOT made their contribution for the year (assuming they have the earned income to do so)?
Realize I'm stepping onto your turf here. Feel free to correct me or to explain further.
Well, Lampden must have felt this was a deal here. It also preserves his options for exercise later.
Yupper, eh. I'm sure you can find one store which sells ROX products there. There are online sources as well, including Caskers.com, which is overpriced. They recently announced a new Jefferson's product, cask-strength Jefferson's Ocean aged at sea, at something like 112 proof.
I suspect since Lampden bought another 25k shares in the open market, you like it even more. Underpriced to me.
Welcome to the board. Many of us have had the opportunity to try a variety of Castle Brands products. If you don't see them jumping out at you, why not ask the store manager if they have any of the Jefferson's bourbons, Boru Vodka, Goslings rum, etc. If that manager says no, there have to be other stores which do carry at least some of them.
In what part of the country are you located? In Montgomery County MD, for example, the county liquor stores carry anywhere from three to five different Jeffersons. The introductory material at the top of the ROX IHub page should list these (but I admit I have not looked there in quite a while). Failing that, the company website has them all listed.
Very good indicator
Irish whiskey in 60 seconds. Other whiskey links as well.
http://liquor.com/video/irish-whiskey-in-60/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=FA%20-%2003.14.16%20-%20Irish%20Whiskey%20in%20:60-ab&utm_term=Liquor:%20Total%20%28Consumer%29
I have been making similar speculations about NNAB since buying in quite a while ago. They have IP transferred from the old KARD already.
Haven't been a bad guy yet. I expect that will continue.
Ultimate, Hoping you are right about NNAB having a good chance of a prosperous future.
No major difference jumped out at me,but then I did not do a side by side comparison.
Good. Glad you and family are safe - not that I wish ill on anyone in the path of destructive forces of nature. Old USDA hand here, so I have a bit of appreciiation for you guys who feed America.
There is serious flooding in part of Texas. Perhaps that is having a major effect on his ranch. Also possible he is preparing for planting.
It's about time.
New 8K current report is posted above. Has March version of ROX presentation.
News on Breaking Bourbon:
http://www.breakingbourbon.com/new-2016-whiskeys.html (with photos)
...
"Label approval for a cask strength version of Jefferson’s Ocean Aged at Sea came in 2015 and consumers should expect to see this in January 2016 for around $100. It will be very interesting to see how a higher proof affects the resulting bourbon with this unique release. We also saw five voyages of this series so far, so more voyages at the brand's standard 90 proof are also very likely in 2016.
The Wood Experiment collection includes five different 200 ml “experiments” that each offer a unique flavor profile. They include different aging/barrel finishes, flavor altering agents, and varying levels of barrel char. The first collection was released in limited markets at the end of 2015 and is expected to expand to more markets in 2016. The suggested retail price is $100.
Jefferson’s released Groth Reserve Finish in 2015 and is planning a follow up on their finished series in 2016. The next release will have their standard Jefferson’s Reserve bourbon finished in old rum barrels. According to an interview company founder Trey Zoeller had with Men’s Journal, Jefferson’s Old Rum Cask Finish is a “4-year-old bourbon in dark rum barrels that had been aging rum for 14 years…took on "that molasses flavor," and made it "thick with a heavy pour." ...
Article on Randal Kirk, major owner of SYN through Intrexon:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/06/business/a-biotech-evangelist-seeks-a-zika-dividend.html?_r=0
Let's hope that happens, even on a small scale.
I received the letter from management as well. While I am just sitting and patiently waiting for lightning to strike, I am pleased with the groundwork CDXC has been laying and try to listen in on all updates.
IMHO, the board will be more active when that lightning hits.
The replay of the webcast can be accessed here: http://services.choruscall.ca/links/resverlogix20160304.html
This was provided by their Investor Relations person. You still need to register to hear/see the information.
Does anyone have a copy of todays slides? Or a link thereto?
It's possible some of the shorts are working on Mako's latest attack today, this time on Medicinova, using SA. I sure hope we can ultimately win a judgement against Rosen sufficient to pay the CTIX legal expanses, and that we can eventually nail Mako.
IPN, I expect you are right about the patents being different. However, it might be increasing the pressure on GRPN to settle with us here and limit the possible damage, so they can focus on IBM.
"signed" long time bag holder