Sorry Zeev, I meant prognosis for the NAS today and tomorrow if you could opine?

Amazing RMBS! What's your prognosis for today and tomorrow if you have minute to opine?

RMBS trading at $12.50 this morning.

Bearmove, looks like ORB could run today. Last you said you would exit around $5.60? Looks like we could open higher than that. Do you have a new exit point?

Reuters
Orbital gets Air Force contract worth up to $238 mln
Wednesday January 29, 5:58 pm ET


WASHINGTON, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Orbital Sciences (NYSE:ORB - News) Corp. won a contract valued at up to $237.9 million over 10 years to recycle spare ballistic missile parts in orbital and suborbital launch systems, the Air Force said Wednesday.
The work is to be wrapped up by July 2014.

8:35AM: Q4 GDP was a touch weaker than expected at 0.7%, but the final sales gain of 1.3% will be seen as somewhat encouraging. This report was not sufficiently off of expectations to change the view that Q4 is old news. ECI was a bit shy of expectations at 0.7% vs the 0.9% consensus, this confirms something we already knew: there are no wage inflation pressures at present. Finally, claims ticked higher to 397K, but still have to be considered as trending flat, consistent with a continued jobless recovery. No big stories with these three releases and no significant market impact expected.

Looks like numbers were a bit worse than expected across the board but futures seem to be up a bit. G&C today?

Good reason Zeev - the shelf. They are almost never positive. May want to look for an exit point on this bounce.

Just sold 5K RMBS AH at $11.76 (+.34). Hope we technically go below 10 coinciding with a market swoon so I can load up again.

Zeev, as we approach 1360, do you think this is a local top? I know you didn't think we would reach 1360 and we may not but either way do you think the downtrend continues tomorrow and into Friday?

Thanks.

No change in Fed - looks like downtrend back in place.

Free trades only if you keep 6 months or longer, correct?

I trade RYVNX for instance and if I hold my trade for less than 6 months, Rydex charges me .25% and Schwab charges me another .75% early withdrawal penalty (this is a normal account, not a 401K account).

Is this standard for people who trade RYVNX through other brokers besides Schwab?

Thanks.

Thanks, covered all my shorts last couple of days expecting a post State of Union bounce. Up 13% in just January so may take a breather here until I can short another bounce with the risk of missing the big down trend we may be in.

How's your "nucular" indicator looking this morning?

Not so sure? Quick 10 points off the low.

I have 1321.30 as the low and a hard bounce from there?

NVLS just gave Q1 guidance higher but mentioned some will be due to a better tax rate. Stock seems to like it. 30.25 AH
Wondering if it's a good short here in AH?

Just covered NVLS at $29.04 (maybe too early) +$2.84

Still falling...

Thanks, may add some REDF on any bounce.

Chinese internet stocks finally tanking - SINA, SOHU, NTES

Zeev and Bob,

I'm not going to take the time to take a poll on who thinks we should have the "new post" button vs. not have the button but based on the quick replies from mlsoft and chainik (two posters who post often and I have much respect for) I can only draw the conclusion that other posters would like this button back so I am going to respectfully ask both of you to reconsider putting the "new post" button back.

I also feel "there is no harm" putting the button back for those of us that obviously enjoy using it. There seems to be the real estate to do it and I would put it right after the bolded "reply publicly" button as it would be the 2nd most used button on the site.

If you wish to take a poll, you have 3 YEA's so far for putting the "new post" button back on the site.

Left a bit more detailed post to Bob on Q&A and before I respond to your message I want to let you all know that this is a mild inconvenience and certainly something I will "shut my hole" on soon because the value of the rest of this thread far outweighs this mild inconvenience.

However, I believe it is confusing seeing a post posted to someone that is not a reply to the prior post because I often click on the prior post to get up to speed on the whole discussion. As far as people trying to address you, they will quickly learn through trial and error that if they don't respond directly to you, it will be tough to get an answer (I've made that mistake before). People forgetting to address you isn't fixed with this change either as they will just reply to someone else's post and say "hey Zeev, what do you think of ...?" You still won't see the post so those mistakes will continue - nothing we can do about that it seems.

Great calls as of late and as always appreciate your perspective.

Thanks for your reply Bob. I apologize but I really don't unserstand how the "post new message" was causing all these problems. I have been a long time user of this thread since Zeev moved over from SI and both you and Matt seem quite capable of dealing appropriately with offending posters.

I would guess maybe 30% of posts are "new message" related vs. replies. That is far too high to just think it can be removed. I believe the effort to keep out the "bad apples" is negatively impacting the effectiveness of the thread by removing "post new message." Seems any message board I go to (and there aren't too many) all have a post new message function.

I know it's on the header page but that's just not effective.

I won't continue to bring this up if it's not an issue with the rest of the thread. If my opinion is that different I will happily live with it as the rest of the positives of this great thread certainly outweigh this inconvenience.

Thanks Rick. Just quickly read all the previous discussion that led to the changes and I think the best of all worlds would still be to add the "post new message" button back because since the changes I have seen "replies" that don't seem to be related to the "message replied to" because you now have the opposite problem which is the path of least resistance is to just "reply publicly" to the latest message you see when you want to post a NEW THOUGHT.

I think the changes which highlight (bold) the "Reply Publicly" button are very good and that is the button which will probably be used most often but I beleive you can add the "post new message" button back to the end of the list and accomplish both goals.

Not a major issue, just some thoughts on continuous improvement.

Bob, is it possible to add back the "post new message" button next to the "reply publicly" and "reply privately" buttons? I believe many times readers want to post new messages not related to the current message they are reading and going back to the thread header is not as efficient a method of posting a new message.

Thanks for your consideration. I thought I saw others mention this since the change as well but not sure it is something the majority would want. Any other thoughts on this from the board?

Well, my shorts (MXIM, PSFT, NVLS, QQQ, RYVNX, TYC, SINA) had a wonderful day except SINA and my only long ORB was up!

It must be happy hour.

Enjoy your weekends.

That's what happens when you pump Da Chief stocks. Your sense of reality becomes distorted.

Maybe Zeev's lying again or intentionally misleading us

C'mon, if it was a mistake, surely innocent and he usually corrects them before we find them.

Listening to the call and CEO and CFO keep "apologizing for their decreased guidance" saying they are just "very conservative." That will probably pop it a bit.

However, if they are "so conservative," why did they miss this quarter revenue slightly? ($335 vs $336M)

Good luck. Tried shorting it at $37.50 on the brief run before guidance but didn't get it.

bye bye klac - just reduced guidance again from 307 to 300.

Bye Bye BRCM. Down 2 1/2 to 15.

Kind enough to forward a link to the Korea news please?

Beating the revenue number is far more important than the EPS. Note JDSU up AH on their "bad miss."

mlsoft,

I'm hoping you're right but also just noticed guidance for Q1 is already pretty low at $307M and 11 cents vs the $335M they did this quarter.

Is there that much seasonality between Q4 and Q1 in this business? I remember they took guidance way down last quarter and promptly rose 15 points but I believe the market id different here.

ISSX Reduced guidance:

said 61-65 for next quarter - consensus is 65M
said 267 - 285 for '03 - consensus is 282M

Read that PSFT news release again. Q1 will be "flat to lower" from LAST YEAR. That was already expected so they didn't reduce previously stated guidance as you can see reflected in the stock's performance today.

Where did PSFT guide "flat to lower?"

Q1 expectations were 13 cents and $478M and they guided Q1 13-14 cents and $125 - $135M in license fees. What is the consensus for license fees for Q1? Interesting they didn't give total revenue guidance although license fees are most important for a software company.

Better strategy...short companies with good #s AND who guide lower.<g>A momo like QCOM flying can do wonders for an ailing market,so I'm going to let the dust settle manana.
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Once they guide lower, you've already missed out. Companies that have good earnings and fly up immediately after hours until the conference call in which they guide down and lose all that up momentum and then some.

These can be multiple buckers after hours.

Strategy: "short companies that have good earnings but don't offer guidance until the conference call."

PSFT up $1 after hours on good earnings. No guidance in press release. Conference call in half hour.

Schwab after hours trading canceled.

"Upside Surprises
Companies whose quarterly net income (or loss) was better than the mean estimate provided by First Call: "
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Do a separate chart for top-line revenue and things will look worse. Do a separate chart for guidance and things will look really bad.