Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Buying panic on missing "the bottom". LOL. And sentiment is too negative? Another manufactured rally that'll end bad.
Short the QQQ's again at 24.72
Smells like mutual funds buying w/OPM to boost shares prices for quarter's end. The FED may be involved in supporting the Dollar here though. Again not short, but long gold.
Yea, KGC a real slug...
(1 year comparison on the HUI)
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?d=c&c=%5Ehui&k=c1&t=1y&s=k.to&a=v&p=s&l=on&am....
(6 month)
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=K.TO&d=c&k=c1&c=^hui&a=v&p=s&t=6m&l=on&....
Own HGMCY, PAAS, SSRI as well. Will probably pick up DROOY after earnings. KGC isn't my only holding but it appears to be tracking close to the HUI from what I can tell.
Perhaps when KGC goes through the merger it may lag short term, but I bought it for LT potential. Overpaid in Russia, perhaps, but KGC will also be a buyout target once the merger goes through having almost 2 mil ounces per year unhedged.
Wasted enough time with you already.
Haven't hear back why the market is so oversold?
Or why fighting the Fed the last 2 years was so bad? What's different now?
Or how you don't have a clue on EP, but won't admit it.
Etc, etc, etc.
Dude...
This market is wildly oversold? On what basis? I'm very interested to know your reasoning on this one.
As for EP, it hasn't been accused of floating a few trades. Their merchant energy side has been cleared of any wrong-doing thus far. The real reason it's down is an initial FERC decision (by one judge) that EP withheld pipeline capacity since they didn't pump at their maximum? Big difference. Try reading the specifics. The initial FERC ruling was either gross incompetance, purely political or both. It'll get overturned. Just a question of time. Pension shortfall? As of last year it was overfunded. It may be short this year, don't know. Numbers won't get published till Feb 2003, but of the S&P 500 companies with pension plans theirs is in the upper tier for funding. Of course it's easy for me to be bullish since my basis about 5.3.
Get those techs while they're cheap. Buying op of a lifetime. We're going straight back to Naz 5000 from here.
Dollar/Gold
http://kitco.com/ind/Skarica/oct242002.html
>> So why am I bullish? <<
>> 1) dividend yields are higher than bond yields <<
They are? Hmmm, first I heard. On average dividend yields are still very low historically.
>> 2) Fed continues to cut rates -- don't fight the fed... <<
What about the last 300+ basis points? What's an extra 50 at most? Come on? Please tell me you're kidding.
>> 3) Presidential race push kicks into gear in 2003 <<
Now I know you're kidding.
>> 4) Between now and April are historically the best times to be in the markets <<
Ok, 1 for 4, but it ain't enough.
>> sell gold stocks, and invest in energy -- preferably natural gas weighted plays. <<
Sorry, not selling my gold plays here with the US Dollar still very overvalued. Of course these gold plays were bought near the recent lows so it's easier to hold. In terms of natural gas agree if you're very selective. But I'd prefer to play a special situation that will benefit from NG, namely EP (psst - nice yield as well).
Up until about 2 days ago this thread was downright bullish. Too many still worried about missing the bottom. Bearish sentiment? Nah.
>> there is a crisis of confidence in CAPEX spending not consumer spending <<
Overly simplistic imho. If only it were simply a matter of confidence. I guess, like Greenspan, Zeev believes we can simply continue to borrow our way into a better standard of living. Keep on inflating that bubble. First stocks. Then the US Dollar. Next real estate? Keep borrowing...
This is why I'm not big into shorting. All the manipulation is one-sided. Gold shares while off the highs are still in most cases nicely higher.
Fed is doing the market far more harm in the long run by not allowing it to fully correct.
Rate cut! Rate Cut! BUY BUY BUY!!!!!
We're the only one's that know about this. The last 11 did no good, but the next one is going to get the economy going...
LOL.
The fact that the market can rebound from the lows based upon "bad news = rate cut = good news" after the past two years really makes me chuckle.
Oh well. Only a matter of time before another flock is fleeced.
>> nem down gg flat to down..what a great free
market system we have...no <<
I don't call that manipulation. I call it short term traders taking a few profits here given the move we've had of late. A pullback in the overall market was almost a given at the levels we were just at two days ago. These are just traders who are "selling the news". Of course far more profits are yet to come and I'm holding, but I can't blame anyone for taking profits in this market.
Still have HGMCY, KGC, PAAS and SSRI.
DROOY, KGC, HGMCY, PAAS and SSRI are all up nicely along with quite a few others. Rotation maybe since NEM led the rally in golds? Likely.
What is manipulated though is the clown Dollar. It's up given the consumer confidence #'s? LOL.
Covered QQQ short. Holding onto the gold shares. I still think the QQQ's have further to drop, but I don't like shorting that much especially with Easy Al on the trigger.
If/when the Dollar index breaks it's major trendline and gold breaks 330 there is going to be a lot of money to be made.
Over the long run gold tends to move opposite the US Dollar. However, the correlation historically is not as strong as some would think. A far stronger correlation is that gold rises with the Swiss Franc. I have no data on the Euro and gold.
Some have said that we may end up in a situation where all countries try to devalue their currency to help exports, but if the US Dollar is dropping as well then that devaluation may take place against gold.
I like gold short term, but I'm really holding out for the next move over $330. It should come within the next 1-6 months imho. It should be quite profitable for those long at today's levels.
I think NEM is a great company, but in terms of value there's much better value out there in the gold/silver patch. Pretty loaded with KGC now otherwise I'd be buying more at these prices. I like PAAS and SSRI here in the silvers.
Look at the COTs. Silver may be closer to a near term move than gold. I still like gold more, but I did add to my silvers today.
Increased my gold exposure. Fed cuts, gold wins in a low interest rate environment. Fed doesn't cut or market wakes up from dream and heads south again...gold wins.
Bought more KGC and HGMCY.
MsLoft, excellent post. Like George I'm pretty much in agreement with your entire post.
Under fundamentals though you could also list:
8) Under-funded pension plans may cut into earnings/cash flow for years to come.
9) Option expensing may reduce earnings substantially
10) Argentina, Japan and now maybe Brazil have not gone away.
11) JPM/Derivitive issues. How many skeletons are hiding in that closet?
On the plus side if the dollar does get substantially weaker that will eventually help US based trade, however the initial impact would be quite negative for US equity markets and the overall world economy.
Dow 5000, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 800 are starting to look more like average assumptions than exteme views of the bear market bottom.
Currently long EP, long gold (KGC, HGMCY), short the QQQ's and have some cash on hand for buying/selling ops.
Most likely. Zeev tends to be early in on his bull calls, but when he goes bearish he tends to have his timing down much better.
I look at how well gold is holding up. I think the FA picture is still getting worse. I look at most of the major indices breaking their hourly trend lines. The consumer is taking on more debt and corporations are nowhere close to being ready to spend again. Once the housing market starts to crack it's game over.
I'm still concerned that next week could be another up week due to end of quarter and in some case end of year financial dressings by mutual funds and managers who get bonuses based up on Oct's #s. But overall the turn is not far off % or time wise.
Short the QQQ's again at 24.62. Sold a little bit of gold but keeping a core holding.
Will cover QQQ short before the EOD, but continue to hold my gold shares.
Regarding NEM the market has already announced it's answer with regards to NEM. Has NEM been following ABX and PDG which are heavily hedged? Or has it traded more like HGMCY, KGC, etc.
As far as springing their hedge book on people unexpectly, come on. When they announced their merger everyone knew about the hedging they were acquiring then, but that over time they would close the hedge book.
Just as important and NEM's current hedges is it's committment to becoming completely unhedged. In many ways NEM started this whole gold rally though it's merger forcing ABX and PDG to follow suit in buying back their hedges.
I don't think you give NEM enough credit.
See my last message. KGC and NEM aren't even in the same ballpark. That said I like KGC here, but those who want a very liquid issue w/big cap safety NEM is a good choice. Better investments, sure, but your portrayal of NEM as highly hedged is blantant BS.
Short the QQQ's again at 24.52.
Also bought more KGC at 1.56.
Still holding EP long and will continue to hold until at least 15 to 20.
>> I think NEM is the slowest among the big golds, now burdened further by a nagging medium hedgebook <<
NEM is the least hedged within the "big golds". About 10% of their reserves and declining rapidly.
There are others, but then you get into SA ownership.
NEM is good choice for most here imho.
Beige Book anyone?
Sentiment on this board is definately favoring the shorts in the near term.
>> The Beige book will be out in a couple of hours and it will not be pretty <<
What time is it released today?
TIA
Bye, bye unsustainable Naz trendline...
I've been buying more HGMCY and KGC this morning. I expect the Naz swoon to start today or by the end of the week at the latest. Gold should get a pop once it starts.
NEM - Yea, by about .01 to .02 cents per year and it's non-cash.
BIG DEAL.
NEM news is already on Yahoo.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/021023/law053_1.html
A whole 6.5 mil. over 3 years related to how they treat their hedges.
Watch 23.6 to 23.75 on the QQQ's. If that area goes then this uptrend goes into correction mode (revist the low 1200's??).
Holding onto EP on the long side. Gold on the other side. May consider shorting the qqq's tomorrow on a break of that level. Like Zeev don't like shorting individual stocks, but I seem to have better luck w/the QQQ's.
Been buying more gold. The recent uptrend on the QQQs looks like it's about to go on the hourly.
Must be looking over your shoulder today. Covered my QQQ short again.
Back short the QQQ's at 24.25.
Covered my QQQ short. Will wait to see if any rally ensues and consider re-shorting.
Begin an initial short position in the QQQ's. (about 1/3 of the max position I would hold). Will scale in again above 25 and then again above 26.
Not looking for massive gains here, but a pullback is in order.
Looks relatively good shor term from a risk/reward standpoint.
Ave price 24.18
>> DJ Utilities: 58 year low -- inflation adjusted. <<
That's one of the reasons I was buying today. Do you have a long term chart of this index? Longest I can find is 10 years.
Picked up some UTH and looking to buy more EP on weakness. The economy can survive without the dot-coms. Good luck surviving without electricity. Still have to be very selective in this sector. Avoiding the pure play IPPs. Playing UTH purely for a bounce. Have half a position now will add on further weakness.
EP is more of a LT hold.
Bush's speech should already be priced in. As such I was buying again late in the day. Can't see him saying anything new that isn't widely known already. He's simply trying to make the case with the American people. I'm not saying the war itself (if any) is priced in as there are still some uncertainties surrounding the war, but I have to believe we'll at least get some sort of relief tomorrow.
OT - Yes, but I can still look. Actually I'm extremely happy with my new wife. I'm guessing Laurie D. won't be taking me up on my offer anytime soon so my wife has nothing to fear.
OT - Maria B looks like death warmed over. I'm not sure why so many men obsess over her looks. There is far better eye candy out there. I'm partial to that blond Fox anchor woman (Laurie Dhue "me...please?").
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,1228,00.html