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Hi JT. Thanks for making me your assistant on ARUN!
CXTI- Reuters- Outperform rating 4 of 4 report dated 7/23/07 @$4.55 per share.
Outperform rates in all four catagories:
Fundamental Quality
Technical Factors
Value Catch-Up and
Operational Trends.
Current PE- 8.0.
Forward 2008 PE- 4.5.
PEG- .05 (yes that is .05!)
EPS: (source: yahoo)
2007- $0.57 (+128%);
2008- $1.01 (+77%), (PE 4.5).
Price/sales:
2007- 1.82;
2008- 1.0.
5 year estimated growth rate: +84%.
Projections:
2007: (based on $4.55 per share price)
Estimated PE of
13.5= $7.70 price per share
16= $9.10
22.5= $13.65.
2008:
Estimated PE of
13.5= $13.65
16= $18.20
22.5= $22.75. (these are my guessimates)
With estimated growth of +84% for 2009 through 2013, I believe CXTI's PE could possibily exceed 22.5, but lets not get to far ahead of ourselves right now.
Hoping to see current share price get back to around $6 as soon as possible and stay over $6.
IMHO, enless there is some kind of fraud taking place within the company, CXTI should be a tremendous investment in the coming years. I have bought in and am holding for the long term.
Thanks for posts and response rebmk- hoping you are right!
About two 50k sell blocks.
Some big holders selling.
Heading to $2.22.
*#%!
GOIDM!
Could secondary buyers be shorting IDM?
This quote from RGRP.ob Yahoo board. There was a secondary offering in May:
"it means that Wellington lent for shorting the shares they "bought" on the secondary. The company knew Wellington would do this but to secure funding companies often sacrifice the share price short term for the money.
Got to keep those salaries coming in you know?
Scumbags.
Too bad for shareholders, they always get kicked in the balls." (be long 4 life)
I really do not understand what this means. Do you think it might be applicable to IDM?
Any comments?
GOIMD!
I believe in IDM and I really hope it succeeds. I have a lot of money in the stock, down big time.
The push back on the schedule of mifmurtide, long term is good for IDMI because I think it improves the chances of approval. I do not think these events would have even happened if there was not a strong probability that mifmurtide is going to be approved by the FDA.
But the push-back in the schedule causing the extra waiting time is negative in the short, medium term. IMO IDM is dead money for the rest of 2007 and earily 2008. I hope I am wrong.
GOIMD!
www.biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070510/nyth072.html?.v=91
If that does not work,
go to yahoo, headlines for May 10, 2007,
"ROO Completes $25 Million Private Equity Financing."
Hi ada. You were right. I bought more ROO today, down to $1.56 avg.
Do you understand what this post from Yahoo board means?
"It means that Wellington lent for shorting the shares they "bought" on the secondary. The company knew Wellington would do this but to secure funding companies often sacrifice the share price short term for the money.
Got to keep those salaries coming in you know?
Scumbags.
Too bad for shareholders, they always get kicked in the balls."
Thanks ada.
GORGRP!
Thanks surf & mexi for responses.
Strange that AOL has this.
Bexidem and Collidem development has been halted by IDM. source: AOL finance.
So the pipeline now is Junovan, Uvidem and EP-2101.
Is this correct?
Neg. earnings: -$0.57 in 2007 and -$0.46 in 2008. Who knows when ROO will break even. This keeps a lot of buyers away.
I have a hunch that ROO is going to be profitable in 2009. I think their earnings are going to explode. Just a hunch though. Time will tell. I believe now is the time to buy ROO and then just hold it for many years. What ROO does is the future and if, if, they can execute their plan, I think the stock should do very well.
The Wellington purchase of 5.7M shares of ROO @$2.50 is huge for me. It is one of the reasons I decided to purchase ROO. Wellington has 332 billion under management, co-manage many Vanguard funds, and I believe know what they are doing. They saw value in ROO at $2.50 a share. I am in at a $1.68 avg.
I bought more ROO yesterday and I think that is it. I am holding for the long, long term, three+ years or more. I am going to file and forget.
Now that I am in, I will just pray nothing explodes, otherwise I am just going to wait for the earnings to ramp-up in 2009 and beyond. I am really not interested in taking the buy and sell approach you have choosen, but to each his own!
GORGRP!
Cheers.
Re: RGRP. Before eight days ago was heading back up and I had it on hold. See 3mo chart. Then eight days ago tanked again and suddenly was in the buy zone. My buy was just a reaction to last eight days price action. I had been watching and waiting, but before eight days ago I had no idea I was going to buy RGRP.
JT do you know what is up BVSN?
CAMD. Charts look good, but not sure what the upside is in the price action.
Forward PE 207, scary. Anything over 40, I am suspect.
Earnings estimates keep getting changed, a red flag.
Negative earnings growth in 2007 and -11% qtrly revenue growth (yoy).
Projected 5 year growth 12%.
Price to sales is very good: 1.43.
$49 million in cash, 264K debt, thats good.
Producing free cash flow.
23.2 million shares outstanding.
Perhaps something to watch but that forward PE and negative earnings growth scares me away.
Cheers.
Wellington- 5.7 million shares, 20.3% of outstanding shares and
Tudor Investment- 3.2 million shares, 11.6%
become RGRP's largest institutional holders on May 10, 2007, in a private equity financing deal worth $25 million. Wellington and Tudor paid $2.50 a share for ROO.
It is good to see Wellington Management on board! They co-manage many Vanguard funds. This could just be the begining of institutional interest in ROO.
GORGRP!
Hi ada.
So I was looking at the one year and two year charts for ROO. The price action has not really spent to much time at these levels, <$2.00 a share.
Do you think there is much down side @$1.69?
I follow Essex Investment Management and they bought 169K shares of ROO between 1/1/07 and 3/31/07, +654%, for a total holdings of 195K shares. Essex specializes in micro and small caps. I have had some luck following their holdings. I look forward to when Q2 institutional holdings for individual stocks are available at www.nasdaq.com.
Having said that, during the same time period, Q1 2007, institutional holders decreased their holdings in ROO by 1.46 million shares, the main seller being William D. Witter, Inc., -1.22 million shares. So most of the selling was from this one holder.
Anyway, do you think ROO will start to make money in 2009?
Cheers.
Hello. In @$1.70 a share. Anybody out there?
Buy, hold, forget. Breaking even in 2009??
I could resist because Wellingtion bought 5.7 million shares @$2.50 in May, 2007, and Tudor Investment 3.2 million, same price in the priviate equity financing deal.
I think we have reached the overreaction point to the +10 million shares, but time will tell. I would like to buy more, as I was to afraid to jump into the deep end with both feet.
Any comments as to if we have seen a bottom @$1.69? or are we going lower towards 52 week low of $1.22?
GOROO!
Alright! cool JT. Thanks!
P.S. How do you do that?
Hi JT, thanks for supg, I'll check it out.
I bought some RGRP.ob today @$1.70. Losing $ at least till 2009, but has 67% 5 year growth rate for 2009-2013.
Institutional investors bought in May, 2007, in a private equity financing deal:
Wellington- 5.7 million shares @$2.50 and
Tudor Investment- 3.2 million shares @$2.50, +32% form current price.
I could not resist but this a stock to hold for three+ years. File and forget.
Good investing
Cheers.
JT.
My main interest is in micro and small cap stocks. Do not have time for anything else.
Cheers.
OK JT, I found you. You are on board!
Welcome.
GOAXTI!
OK. I found you. You are on board!
Thanks JT.
JT what is your handle so I can add you.
Hey JT! You found it!
I did not include AXTI because of it's recent run-up to $4.72. I was really lucky and got in @$3.70 on May 30, 2007. There was a major bullish hammer that day and AXTI has never looked back.
I still believe there is a lot value @$4.72 long term.
Next stop would be $5.49, the current 52 week high. But it is going to take a good earnings report on 8/2/07 (est. $0.03/shr) to really break-out.
I know this is looking forward and wishful thinking but here it goes:
If AXTI can get over $5.49, and stay over it, $5.49 would become support. Next resistance would be $6, on to $8.
If >$6, and stays over, on to $8, and so on, if >$8, resistance would be $10.
If >$10, resistance would be $12. If >$12, resistance would be $15.
I am not making these price targets up, I studied AXTI previous price action and came up with these target prices.
On Yahoo, growth estimate for 2007 is +206%, +35% for 2008.
Problem is no long term (5 yr) growth estimate. But if, IF, AXTI can grow somewhere between +25% to +35% for 2009 to 2013, I think those price projections are a strong possibility.
Cheers.
Hi aud.
I bought ZIXI Tuesday @$1.88.
I like the 5 year 40% projected growth. I did my DD and ZIXI looks good.
Do you have any comments re: the ZIXI board on Yahoo? Re: the bashers and this talk about the alledged huge naked short position in ZIXI and the SEC enforcing the rule and forcing all naked shorts to cover by 10/8/07?
It seems to me that someone is paying the bashers to try and convince people not to buy ZIXI. I have never come across such negativity on stock on a message board. All it does for me is to want to buy more ZIXI. In fact, if ZIXI goes down tommorrow, I might buy more.
GOZIXI!
Nasdaq delist: <$1 for 30 business days. Nasdaq Marketplace Rule 4450(a)(5).
IDMI is not even close. Know what you are talking about before you start throwing around baseless statements.
Current possibilities are IDMI (@$2.76) and ZIXI (@$2.01). I also hold AXTI, which has had a recent run-up, but long term AXTI could do very well.
IDMI, jr. biotech. 27.5 million shares. Short term all or nothing on Junovan approval by FDA. in late August. If yes, >$7 in days. If no, pipeline, which is impressive, but a $3 stock for many months. I have a large position in IDMI @$3.18, currently in big hole. Watching, waiting and praying.
ZIXI. 60 milion shares. I just bought ZIXI on Tuesday @$1.88. Email security (main source of revenue now) and eprescription (possible future revenue source). Turn around story. Possible positive EPS in late 2008.
Long term looks very good, 5 year projected growth 40%, (www.yahoo.com). Short term some very strange things are in play. Apparently there is a huge nake short position in this stock. Per recent SEC ruling all "grandfathered" nake short positions must closed by 10/8/08. Holding ZIXI for long term.
Cheers.
Hi JT.
Glad to hear from you.
Well if you want to talk shop:
Current possibilities are IDMI (@$2.76) and ZIXI (@$2.01). I also hold AXTI, which has had a recent run-up, but long term AXTI could do very well.
IDMI, jr. biotech. 27.5 million shares. Short term all or nothing on Junovan approval by FDA. in late August. If yes, >$7 in days. If no, pipeline, which is impressive, but a $3 stock for many months. I have a large position in IDMI @$3.18, currently in big hole. Watching, waiting and praying.
ZIXI. 60 milion shares. I just bought ZIXI on Tuesday @$1.88. Email security (main source of revenue now) and eprescription (possible future revenue source). Turn around story. Possible positive EPS in late 2008.
Long term looks very good, 5 year projected growth 40%, (www.yahoo.com). Short term some very strange things are in play. Apparently there is a huge nake short position in this stock. Per recent SEC ruling all "grandfathered" nake short positions must closed by 10/8/08. Holding ZIXI for long term.
Cheers.
Hello, JT are u there?
ARUN has a 418% 5 year growth rate on Yahoo finance. But on Reuters it is N/A. Do you know why it has such a high 5 year growth projection? Any comments?
I have never seen a stock with such a high projected 5 year growth rate. The next closest I have come across is SDXC at 124% projected 5 year growth.
I am not in yet, but watching closely. I think anything <$18, if it gets there, would be a possible buy point. Comments? Any chance you think it will get to $18, or possibily under?
Thanks. Lets get this site going! Thanks for setting it up.
bowonwing
AXT- StockScouter rating 9 (10 is best). "AXT, Inc., a micro-cap growth company in the technology sector, is expected to significantly outperform the market over the next six months with less than average risk." source: www.moneycentral.com. July 8, 2007.
$4.77 close 7/6/07. $4.58 support (type single, strength 2). $5.11 resistance (type triple, strength 8).
Target #1: $5.49, 52 week high.
Target #2: $8.00, range $6.00-$8.00, support would be $5.49.
www.stockconsultant.com.
I believe it is free for first 15 or so stock screens every 24 hours. So you can go see "blurb" for yourself.
The 95 % bullish ranking is really just a prediction of future short term price action, two to six weeks, using their computer program.
It is really just a lot of technical analysis for each stock. To be honest, I am a member at $16/mo., mainly for the support and resistance levels it provides you with. It is also a great way to screen a lot of stocks quickly.
As to the programs predictive ability, 95% bullish, I have found it to be less than stellar reguarding future price action. I just thought I would share the info with the board. As I said in the post "for what its worth."
Stock Consultant 95% bullish for IDMI. For what its worth.
Close @$2.90, +$0.13. Buying started @ 1 p.m from $2.80 to $2.84, about 30k shares. At 2 p.m 300k+ shares traded, from $2.85 to $3.00, back down to $2.90, the close. Someone came in and bought today! Does not look like MM action to me. We will find out tommorrow.
Hopefully this price action is the harbinger of some serious upward price movement for IDM. I am even @$3.18.
Thanks to tzm and meixatech for their posts.
Go IDM!
tzm, sorry for misunderstanding.
No, I ment the fda transcript with the exchange between Kanzer and Hussain that you posted.
Re: Cantor Fitzgerald report by Bassett. Does anyone know how to get a copy of it? Someone on Yahoo board said you could buy it for $65.00, but I have been unable to locate it.
Thank you.
Thanks tzm. Re: gossip: Great stuff. Who are players and what does exchange mean in general and in particular to IDM?
Thanking you in advance.
JDS Capital Management, Inc. bought 1.2m shares of AXT on June 5, 2007, for total ownership of 2M shares. source www.Quote.com.
AXT shares are being quietly accumulated, 7/3/07 closed @$4.43, up almost 10% in last week.
Hopefully on 8/2 earnings will beat estimate of $0.04.
I believe AXT is strong turn around company. I am long and holding for the long term.
AXT's all time high was $43.63 in about May, 1999.
At that time they had about 70% of VGF market. Yin (CEO) and Cheung's intent is to regain world market share to 30%, currently it is at about 17%. If AXT can gain world market share to 30%, my rough calculations based on old previous high, (70% market share- $43.63 stock price), works out to about $20 target price, in about two or three years (2009), a 450% increase from current price. Of course this does not factor inflation.
AXT's wild cards: solar play (germanium revenues) and joint ventures in China.
Perhaps, with luck we will see a new 52 week high (>$5.49) in short order, onward to >$6.00, $7.98 trending towards $10. Wishful thinking, I admit, but I like AXT's new management and projected reveune and earnings estimates.
If AXT can get painted on investors radar screens, long holders could be greatly rewarded.
We'll see.
AXT has five joint venture operations in China for the raw materials required by AXT's compound semiconductor substrates.
The five joint ventures are:
Beijing Ji Ya Semiconductor Co. Ltd.
Producer of 4N Ga. AXT ownership- 46%
Nanjin Jin Mei Gallium Co. Ltd.
Producer of 6N & 7N Ga, B2O3. -83%
Xilingol Tongli Germanium Co. Ltd.
Producer of Ge. -25%
Emeishan Jia Mei High Purity Materials Co. Ltd.
Produce of 4N, 6N and 7N Arsenic- 25%
Beijing Bo Yu Seniconductor Vessel Craftwork Technology
Producer of pBN crucibles, parts for MBE use. -70%.
Through these joint ventures, AXT manufactures and sells critical materials and parts, while reducing dependency on other suppliers of raw materials in the open market. This affords AXT the price and volume stability unavailable on the open market. In addition, AXT is a majority owner in three of the key ventures, which affords AXT board-level control and vertical intergation. AXT has critical manufacturing processes in China. See company web site for further information.
I am an individual investor. I bought AXTI in May, 2007. I believe AXT is a turn around story with very good days ahead.
Est. growth for 2007- 206%, for 2008- 29%. Est. revenue sales growth for 2008 is 24% (source Yahoo finance). Reuters Outperform rating, 4 of 4, as of June 28, 2007.
I came across AXT because Essex Investment Management Company (AMG Essex Small/Micro Cap Growth Fund) took an initial position in AXT between 1/1/07 and 3/31/07 of 1 million shares ($4.82M) at a price somewhere between $4.18 and $4.78. At 7/3/07 close of $4.43, much upside price potential.
During the same time peroid Institutional ownership in AXT increased by 2.63M shares, out of 29.89M shares outstanding, about +9%. (Sources www.Managersinvest.com and www.MoneyCentral.com).
Next earnings report for AXT is 08/02/2007.
The only question I have is long-term growth for 2009 to 2013. So far, neither Yahoo or Reuters have a long-term growth estimate for AXT. Does anyone have this information? Thank you.
Good luck to AXT and good investing to all.
tzm thanks for your great post on IDM!
Your knowledge of these issues is greater than mine, do not assume we know something, please error on the side of detail and do not worry about your grammer.
We are here to make money and watch IDM grow and help cancer patients (my mother was a double cancer surivor for 28 years!). I am long IDM, @$3.18 share and holding for long term.
"... based on other possible applications of Junovan."
Bassett stated "We view Junovan as a PRODUCT PLATFORM ... ." I read this statement as meaning that Junovan could develop into other cancer fighting drugs. Comments?
Also, the WSJ article by Thornton. Amazing re: Advisory Committee cabal? Current vested interests ($) perfiduously torpedoing potential rival cancer therapies with meaningless minute details? Paranoia or possibility? If yes, what can we do to expose the cabal?
Thanks again. Go IDM.