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I still assume NVS can do $1b sales on m-enox even with the AG around.
I agree. If it's NVS, then it isn't that dramatic (Should take NVS around a q and a half) and it would also mean the irreparable harm part of the PI case would still be relevant. My quick math says Amphastar launching would still cost MNTA $120-150m profits a year.
It's the AG, not ampha's version.
Looks like SNY not taking chances and launching AG before PI decided.
What does this do to MNTA's case?
Purely guessing, I would imagine it would take us above pre ampha prices and possibly into 52 week high territory. A PI would really confirm the value of MNTA's technology while finally doing away with the enox overhang.
But as many others have mentioned, getting a PI is not the easiest thing in the world.
And NVS will release Enox numbers early tomorrow morning.
The fact that MNTA hasn't issued a PR otherwise confirms they are still in profit share mode.
Maybe there's a few "Special Masters" on this board the judge should consult :)
I heard the same...
Oh yeah, RBC Capital is also taking it seriously, but from the other side (they cover WPI). They've issued a few notes regarding the trial and they have yet to include a-enox in WPI's earnings because of it.
I think Oppenheimer is one of the analysts not giving MNTA lawsuit a shred of credibility.
The only one to even mention it publicly is Canaccord right?
Looks like we got opex, RS speaking in 5 minutes, and a PI decision looming. Fun!
TRO expires EOB tomorrow
IG:
The analyst who told me last Monday about what ampha said on the TRO hearing was the same one who told me about the futility of TEVAs Enox app. I don't know why you keep chirping about the subject. And obviously since DD, myself, go seek, flo, rwwine, zip jet, mouton and even jbog (ie; the consortium) are the same person, your posts exposing us will be deleted.
I would argue "they" were waiting for TEVA. Instead, they got lucky and amphastar got approved.
I think the easy answer is MNTA would be required to issue a PR if the terms of the agreement have changed. The fact that they haven't and it's been nearly a week since the hearing is pretty good evidence that profit-share is still in tact for MNTA.
In addition, I believe the street now thinks MNTA has not lost profit-share mode, which was unclear on Monday...
Indeed.
In fact, the only analyst that I know of that took it seriously from the get-go doesn't even cover MNTA.
very well could be the case! :)
My point is that I'm not just pulling these things out of thin air and it is not "wild speculation". The likelihood that it was said in court is pretty high considering A) where I heard it from and B) MNTAs response when I asked them about it.
Obviously I can't 100% confirm it since I wasn't there, but I assure you I wouldn't post it if I didn't think it was extremely likely that it was said.
No clue. From what I gather MNTA doesn't know either and they are trying to figure it out.
Unrelated. I confirmed MNTA was still in profit-share mode when he said that.
And MNTA would have released a PR had they switched.
IMO the street thinks MNTA has lost the profit-share arrangement. We'll see in the next few days if that's the case.
If that is true and it leads to MNTA receiving a royalty rather than a split of the profits, then any settlement becomes much less likely because the damage will have been done.
I wouldn't assume as much as like I said, MNTA would have to issue a PR.
And as I think someone mentioned, WPI has stated that they have not launched, so any product sold, if this indeed did occur, would be on Ampha at this point.
but this rumor that ampha released product to WPI
I'm guessing that that is what MNTA is currently trying to ascertain. A switch to royalty-share mode would constitute a PR from them.
Apparantly one of Ampha's lawyers said at the trial on Friday that they have sold some product. Whether this constitutes a "launch" is still unclear to MNTA at this time.
Apparently amphastar changed a step in their process after MNTA was approved.
Interesting hypothetical but can't see FTC allowing that
WPI is not a fly at the seat of the pants outfit, so I'd be shocked that they wouldn't know everything they are involved in.
This is black and white to WPI.
Teva still could have done what I am guessing Ampha has done by pressing its partner to tweak its process to gain approval.
Not to mention the FDA 8 months ago
IG: TEVA's ANDA hasn't been approved.
It is information I recieved and if I want to share with the board, I will. I have not nor have I ever distorted anything.
If I had any trust whatsoever in you, I would share details about which analyst and what they said exactly (I've done so with others on the board), but alas...
IG: My posting record speaks for itself. I'm relaying information that was given to me.
Once again, anything related to the "consortium" will be deleted.
FWIW I heard from an analyst that Amphastar changed their application after MNTA was approved and copied a step from MNTA that the FDA required.
If there was a failed attempt, does that mean WPI intends to launch in the near term or is MNTA just playing it safe?
I'm not buying the argument that supply reasons are holding up launch. Companies have to have some inkling that approval is imminent.