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George, all,
I plan on doing more travelling this year and would like to find a place to park some funds that will not require a great deal of supervision. I already have a position in Hussman's HSGFX and am looking for other possibilities.
Two that I've seen discussed are the Prudent Safe Harbor Fund (PSAFX) - a mixture of gold and international securities, and BEGBX - an international bond fund. Both could take advantage of a decline in the dollar and PSAFX should profit from a rise in the shiny stuff.
Any comments on these - or suggestions for other funds - are appreciated.
From Debka file:
http://www.debka.com/
Senior officials in London say Blair government seeks to delay Iraqi war till autumn to give UN arms inspectors more time - Telegraph
chainik, what reasoning leads you to believe that Hussman will be an early bull?
TXN's weakness may be due to NOK's warning:
http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/021210/tech_nokia_outlook_1.html
Zeev, just to correct a typo: Kayaker's board with critical posts is #board-1439 (you gave the id for your main board)
Kayaker doesn't reference the post that lists the core candidates (perhaps he will add it). But for those interested it's #msg-584574 . Best, Hiker
Zeev, I've been wading through old posts but I can't find the answer to this one.... what is your target for the peak after the next presumed low (at 1222). Undoubtedly you mentioned this in an old post but I've been unsuccessful in finding it. Thanks, hiker
John Hussman, who manages HSGFX & HSTRX, has a weekly audio gig here:
http://www.aegeancapital.com/freeservices/archives1/Guests/Hussman/pg1.htm
By the way, I'm not trying to promote Hussman's funds (though I have a position in HSGFX) but thought this might be of interest since he is often mentioned here.
Indeed. From Hussman's Nov 10 update:
"We don't make forecasts regarding when such shifts may occur, but historically the Market Climate has shifted nearly twice a year, on average. In addition, trend uniformity has historically been favorable during about two-thirds of the seasonally favorable periods between November and April. As noted last week, it's a favorable Market Climate you wait for, not just favorable seasonality. But given all of these tendencies, I'll be at least a bit surprised if we don't see a favorable shift in the Market Climate at some point between now and April. Given that the current Climate remains unfavorable, the historical tendency is that such a shift would occur at lower prices, not higher ones."
Judging from his commentaries I think that Hussman has a good take on the market, but his HSGFX fund has nonetheless been giving up ground lately, I'm afraid that its exposure to consumer goods & services will hurt it. A few weeks back one of the stocks he said he liked was WEN, down today on the warning from MCD.
Zeev, now that you have a "run for the hills", is your time frame for the decline to 1222 still 3 to 4 weeks or do you now think things will evolve more quickly than that?
If you played the dark side on the QQQ when (or would) you be shorting?
I'm not a big Cramer fan, but it was interesting that TXN apparently said that business still looks bad...
Texas Instruments Speaks the Truth and Spoils the Party
Tuesday November 5, 2:49 pm ET
By James J. Cramer,
This rally in tech is struggling because Texas Instruments (NYSE:TXN - News) refused to play ball. That's right, it had the gall, the guts, the darned insistence that the truth be told. It stood up in front of a room full of people in Boca Raton, Fla., at 11 a.m. today and said, nope, no change, business is still bad.
Of all the crummy, un-American things to do. Of all of the no-good statements to make. Or, as one of my hedge fund pals said to me, "Why can't they just be more like Tom Siebel and give the crowd what it wanted to hear?"
http://biz.yahoo.com/tsp/021105/10052414_1.html
Remaining content requires subscription.
George, Newman's forecast seems similar in form to Donald Sew's, but proceeding faster. From yesterday:
------------------------------------------------------------
Market Swing Discussion: Donald Sew's Index Update
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Posted by Donaldsew on Sunday, November 03, 2002 - 10:50 am:
If anyone would like to join in, will be opening the YAHOO chat-room
"YUKON_____" at 9:00 pm est to discuss market direction. Basic
positions:
ShortTerm - nearing a top, but pullback should produce a higher low
MidTerm(30+ days) - bullish to the extent that there could be more
upside, but that such upside may be limited and that the full extent
of this rally may be about 75% already done.
LongTerm - bearish, feel US DOLLAR is the KEY, a significant break
below 103 could be extremely negative. My LongTerm predictions, at
best, has only a 62% probability, again - at best - could be much
lower than 62% probability.
Hussman published a special hotline update today. Yesterday his HSGFX fund dropped over 1% (relatively unusual for this low volatility fund) and he talked about that.
His latest updates may always be found at:
http://www.hussman.com/hussman/members/updates/latest.htm
Jim, for what it's worth, I recall seeing some of these rising wedges morph into descending triangles before they fall out of bed. So far the compq doesn't look like a good candidate for one, but it may be interesting to watch out individual stocks to see if DTs develop there. Thanks for posting the chart.
Re: "Bears awfully quiet...are they now in hibernation or preparing for the kill..."
Mainehiker, the bears are just taking care of business:
http://www.adagrin.com/cartoons/photos_animals/images/bearwood.jpg
They'll be back soon enough!
I watched John Hussman on Wall Street Week last night - nothing terribly new was said, although he did say positive things about Lexmark, Wendy's & VFC.
According to his weekly update, John Hussman (of HSGFX) will be on Wall Street Week with Fortune on PBS tonight (Friday).
http://www.hussman.com/hussman/members/updates/latest.htm
Larry, the problem with the site I referenced is that it's more of an infomercial - it talks around the subject without really explaining it (no surprise they want you to buy their product).
Can you explain the basic premise behind the Dennis trend lines or at least give a better reference?
Augie, Re: Richard Dennis, Dennis Trend lines & Turtle trading, I found this:
http://www.turtletrader.com/skep.html
New to me, too.
Coaltrain, glad to help. I agree about the comparison to the Internet fund, sometimes I think these journalists just have to find something to write about.
Re: Hussman's record before starting his fund
See:
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P29902.asp?special=msn
Excerpt:
"Although his tenure at the helm of his mutual fund is short, he published an investment newsletter for nearly 10 years, ending when the fund was begun. Mark Hulbert, editor of Hulbert Financial Digest, says Hussman’s recommended stock portfolio badly lagged the market throughout that period.
His single-digit returns, Hulbert says, “reflect a combination of his stock picking, which was relatively good, and his market timing, which was wrong much of the 1990s. He was bearish a lot of that time.” "
Reading this didn't bother me because it seems to reflect a conservative investment philosophy appropriate for these times.
Augie, if there's a reason to compare last year's PPO/MACD to this year's value then the PPO is definitely the better choice since as you point out it's percentage-based & doesn't scale with the value of the index.
The dips in both PPO/MACD reflect the strength of the preceding decline. They appear predictive because these declines were followed by strong rallies. Do you trust this to be the case often enough to use the PPO as an indicator of rally size? I'm not so sure about that one, and I don't recall reading about anyone using that indicator that way. BWDIK.
The main divergence of opinion seems to be between those who think the local low is in (Zeev, Carpino, velociraptor, Donald Sew) and those who think we make a new low (Naz comp 1000?) before a rally (Newman, many of the folks on the retrace thread). (Slider's comments seem to be a bit more LT.)
In Hussman's latest (10/13) missive he addresses the recent pullback 4.5% in HSGFX as mainly due to being partially unhedged during the selloff from the August high:
http://www.hussman.com/hussman/members/updates/latest.htm
He's still fully hedged.
I only had one trade with PRITX before I was bounced. I wonder if there are any ETFs that this strategy would work with?
George, you have a great deal! I tried a ST trade with PRITX but was quickly labeled a "market timer". I would guess that outside of special situations like yours one would typically get hit with exit penalties or have future trades rejected. Outside of your 401k account do you know of any fund that you can play this strategy with?
George, how to manage to trade in and out of those funds for short periods without penalty (or being labeled a "market timer")?
Hussman published a special hotline update today:
http://www.hussman.com/hussman/members/updates/latest.htm
Re: "Only bull standing?"
Zeev, they are playing your song:
<vbg>
http://www.discoverynet.com/~ajsnead/allsongs_1/lonlybul.html
Bush Sends Troops to West Nile
http://www.theonion.com/onion3834/bush_sends_troops.html
WASHINGTON, DC—Vowing to "exact justice for the taking of innocent American lives," a determined and defiant President Bush deployed more than 14,000 ground troops to the West Nile Monday.
"My fellow Americans, an enemy from overseas has attacked us in our own land, waging biological warfare against us on our home soil," Bush said in a nationally televised speech from the Oval Office. "We must send a strong message to our enemies in the West Nile region that this virulent aggression against America will not go unpunished; it will not stand."
Bush's decision to deploy troops came on the heels of three more West Nile virus deaths over the weekend—one in Louisiana and two in Illinois—bringing the national death toll to 51.
"These cowards want to bring down our very way of life," Bush said. "They have sought to rob us of our ability to leave the house without repellent. But what they did not count on is the tremendous spirit and resolve of the American people. No one, be they man or mosquito, will dictate what we put or don't put on our skin for protection."
Armed with anti-mosquito munitions, American Special Forces made landfall at Damietta near the mouth of the Nile early Tuesday, and by dawn had erected U.S. Army netting over the city. Bush promised that the netting, expected to extend all the way to Khartoum by the end of the week, will eventually stretch nearly 1,000 miles to the Nile's source and "as far to the west as necessary."
"The United States will not stand idly by while people or insects who despise everything we stand for develop weapons of mass infection," Bush said. "The only way to fight a pestilence such as this is to attack it right where it breeds—in this case, the lands to the west of the Nile River."
Though not made public until Monday, Operation Deep Desert Off! began at approximately 3 p.m. EST Sunday when Air Force F-15 aircraft armed with mosquito-seeking Sidewinder missiles flew in support of F-18s deploying military-grade citronella napalm. By nightfall, special DEET-dispensing flamethrower tanks of the First Armored Infantry were scouting out possible base camps 100 miles west of the Nile.
Though details of the plan remain classified, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said the ultimate goal of Operation Deep Desert Off! is to "eradicate the deadly, virulent strain of anti-Americanism that has spread from the West Nile to our own shores."
"We have 14,000 fully armed and equipped American troops in the region right now who are prepared to take the fight to this foreign threat," Rumsfeld said. "I must stress that it will not be easy, as the war we wage is not against a traditional enemy. This enemy operates in secrecy, striking when and where we least expect. It is an enemy without borders. But I am nevertheless confident that the evildoers responsible for killing those 51 Americans and infecting hundreds more can be defeated by Christmas."
"This ridiculous show of force is patently not the way to fight the West Nile virus," said Dr. Arnold Bloch of the Centers For Disease Control. "Foreign military action will do nothing to halt the spread of this disease and does not help those currently infected with West Nile. Besides, Bush should have deployed those anti-mosquito jet fighters along the eastern seaboard and garrisoned the Mississippi River area last year, when there was still a chance to contain the disease's domestic spread."
"Only two years ago, Bush said he would try to control his retaliatory impulses," Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle (D-SD) said. "But in the past six months, he's invaded the West Nile, petitioned Congress for economic sanctions against Japan for the crop devastation wrought by the Japanese beetle, and threatened China with nuclear attack if its snakehead invasion was not halted. If he continues this hardline military stance on all overseas natural threats, he will badly damage his chances of ever solving future crises peacefully."
Undeterred, Bush maintains that the time to strike is now.
"We will hunt down and capture those who bring sickness and death to our shores," said Bush during a visit to the St. Louis home of Robyn Crist, 35, whose husband Dan was one of the first West Nile casualties. "Nothing can deter us from bringing down these bloodsucking anti-American parasites."
oeo2oo - thanks for that link. I must be blind - I think I stared at that very page! -hiker
oeo2oo (or anyone)
Re: "According to S&P on its website, based on "as reported earnings," the current PE for the S&P 500 is 37..."
Could you tell me where on the SP website you found this?
All I was was able to dig up was this Aug. 12 article by Jeremy Siegel, and he puts the PE around 21x next year's core earnings:
http://www.standardandpoors.com/Forum/MarketAnalysis/coreEarnings/Articles/081202_oasis.html
Zeev,
Since Kayaker is no longer compiling a reference list of your posts (perhaps he got overwhelmed since he was listing so many!) would it not be helpful to you & your readers to have a small set of your key posts listed in the thread header?
I'm thinking of posts like the one this responds to, or the general forecast you wrote back in 2000, and perhaps a few other topics (perhaps OBs?).
Also - many thanks for being so free in sharing your thoughts & expertise. I also think that your move to Ihub has proven to be a good one - this seems to be a much more constructive environment than the one at SI.
Best,
Hiker
"A turn up?"
I think he meant "a turnip".
<vbg>
Vesselin,
I followed your work while on stockcharts, it's good to see it again here at Ihub.
One suggestion: For your set of "timeless" charts, why not put links to those posts in the thread header? That would make them easy to find, especially for someone who starts reading this thread after it's been going for a while and there are many posts.
Looking forward to the discussion & analysis here!
Hiker
OK LG, I'm with you now, your question is a good one, but since I don't key off of Don's signals, I've never really worried about it.
LG, agree with you about price being the ultimate confirmation! <g> Since these are Don Sew's words (and since I am not Don Sew) I prefer not to answer questions about them. However, evry few days Don hosts an online chat and you (or anyone else) can ask him yourself. (BTW, I'm just passing along the calls I get from him, I have no connection with him or marketswing.)
Mike, Don's signals are explained in the header of his thread at marketswing.com :
====================================
Welcome to Donald Sew's Index Update
EXPLANATION of CLASS SIGNALS:
My short-term system attempts to predict the reversal point prior to any linear confirmation of a reversal. Most systems are linear in that actual price movement is required to confirm a reversal. My short-term system attempts to identify extreme overbought or oversold situation and then gives a time frame as to when the actual short-term top/reversal begins, without the actual price reversing. On many occassions my CLASS SIGNALs may appear to be contrarian since they may ring while the market is still heading in the opposite direction of my signal.
This short-term system is for only short-term moves of 1-5 days. They do not attempt to predict the amount of the price movement, but only the TIME-FRAME of the reversal/top or bottom.
CLASS 1 SELL - extreme overbought with the window until the next days highs
CLASS 2 SELL - a preliminary warning for a CLASS 1 signal, but a reversal could occur immediately
CLASS 1 BUY - extremd oversold with the window until the next days lows
CLASS 2 BUY - a preliminary warning for a CLASS 1 signal, but a reversal could occur immediately
On a statistical basis the minimum move after a CLASS 1 SELL signal is 150 points for the DOW. In only one case over the past 3 years the DOW only reversed 75 points, so I consider 75 as the absolute minimum. The NORMAL MOVE is 200-350 points, and a STRONG MOVE is over 350 points.
NEGATED CLASS 1 SIGNALS - This does not occur often, but when it does - WATCH OUT. I lost my data, but from memory, NEGATED CLASS 1 SIGNAL only occured over the past 3 years, 4 or 5 times for three major indices-DOW/SPX/NAZ- combined. The best example of a negated signal was back in APRIL 1998 when I got a NEGATED CLASS 1 SELL SIGNAL when the the DOW was around 10,100 - thereafter the DOW ran to 11,000+ by MAY. The same type cf response should be expected for a NEGATED CLASS 1 BUY signal, where there should be a strong downside.
Don Sew's latest:
Posted by Donaldsew on Thursday, August 15, 2002 - 9:55 am:
With the DOW up 40+ points a few minutes ago got the INTRADAY
BORDERLINE CLASS 1 SELL signals on the DOW/SPX/OEX/NAZ/NDX
FYI, Don Sew's latest:
[Note: His signals are explained in the header of his board at http://marketswing.com]
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Market Swing Discussion: Donald Sew's Index Update
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Posted by Donaldsew on Tuesday, August 13, 2002 - 11:12 am:
At this morning's high, a few minutes ago, got the following signals:
DOW/SPX/OEX - CLASS 2 SELL
NAZ/NDX - BORDERLINE CLASS 1 SELL