... it's a big blue watery road ...
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Nothing is ever difinite in the stock market.
That explains the nature of those 50 blocks of exactly 500,000 that would be sold right before close and often after close to suppress the price for so long. Looks like a confession. But I guess it is getting much more difficult at this point, I haven't see much more of those recently.
You know, I used to manage a good-sized business too, and one of my co-workers would always repeat "Revenues cure everything." It will be exactly the case here, once those millions of Chinese-born dollars are in, PPS will be cured in no time.
I answered in 9684, just replied to me by mistake.
Apparently Bob had learned his lesson, and no longer gives out exact date projections on future events.
The most recent PR states: "The iron ore is being crushed to main production sizes of 03 to 18 millimeter Fines and secondary sizes of 0 to 03 millimeter Super Fines. The 3 by 18mm Fines will be shipped via Bulk Cargo Vessels and the 0 by 3mm Super Fines will be packed in Maxi Bags for container shipments of 8 bags maximum of 25 metric tons per 20-ft container, for Environmental Air Quality concerns and will begin before the end of November 2010."
It looks like the first shipment will be before the end of this months. We just now saw trucks on the pictures from the company, and according to Bullit at this initial stage they are planning to get enough trucks to carry 35K load to the port in 30 days, so that November shipment will probably be the shipment of super fines in containers, because they would still be trucking 3x18 fines to complete 35K load by then. But the main shipment of fines should be out in early December. This is also confirmed by "The company will still make its first shipment via Handy cargo vessel at 30/35,000 DWT" i.e. before the dredging project is completed i.e. before the end of December.
Agreed 100%. Transparency is important. But until recently there was nothing in CWRN to be transparent with, and now Bob has his hands full with this time-consuming project. I am fairly confident that cleaning up the share structure and catching up on the filings is high up on his list of things to do once our massive Baja ball is rolling.
Good call. I am surprised more people aren't seeing the same.
I suppose the only reasonable concern at this point is dilution. But I have said multiple times that it does not make sense.
There are piles of iron ore ready to be exported on Baja site (http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=56510440). Getting it to the port is basic mechanics. Selling it to the Chinese is basic supply/demand. One 35K DMT (until January, and 75K thereafter) load will generate a whopping 5.4 million dollars of revenue with around 2.5 million before-tax profit. Do you think Bob would rather do that, or try selling 2.5B shares (more than the entire OS) at today's closing price to get the same money? Which, if we assume no drop in price (unreal) and today's sell volume of 27M, would take him NEARLY FIVE MONTHS OF PURE SHARE SELLING.
Bob established CWRN to make money, and right now there is much more money to be made much faster by going through with the project, than by selling shares. He absolutely knows that.
THERE IS NO DILUTION, no matter what our in-house expert Bigfoot says.
i.t.m.d.
I don't see why people would stay with brokers like Scottrade at all. You are paying them for service, and then they choose which securities you are allowed to buy. Take your money somewhere else.
It is unfortunate that CWRN ended up on their questionable list, but maybe if enough ST users try to buy it, and complain they will take it off.
For a million bucks? Hmmm... How about the entire float? The market capacity is such a joke right now.
With market regulations where they are, MMs are pretty much in charge here. They can make their own trades in many cases, and are in this to make money just like all of us. I don't see why they wouldn't take advantage of the opportunities they have, especially when it comes to some emergent new micro cap that has a real huge-potential company behind it. Micro on this board pointed out already that CWRN is on the verge of a sort of a break-out that happens very rarely in the pinksheets land. It is only natural that all kinds of opportunists will come around to feast on this. Unfortunately, sometimes things that benefit them do not benefit the rest of the shareholders. The good thing is that it is only temporary. At the end of the day, all involved parties will have vested interested in CWRN going up and up only. This wonderful time is very close, in my honest opinion.
Bid is pushing up for sure.
BS, I agree. They might be able to pull it off at the moment. But as more good things are announced, including official revenues as early as next month, it will become increasingly difficult to hold this down. Buyback will definitely take care of such issues as well. It's just the matter of time until CWRN runs as it is ought to.
Thanks, 2010ftw! Thanks, Finra! We will make some spectacular money here, have no doubt about it.
Someone is still resisting the momentum, this is just obvious looking at the way it trades. But talking about common sense, we simply can't lose in the end owning a part of a real mining company with so much potential at these prices. I suppose that anyone with common sense could not possibly doubt the legitimacy of CWRN today.
Link? To what? Personal site of the port of Ensenada director where he blogs about confidential particularities of port contracts? Get serious.
Take it or leave it. If you were such a major shareholder, you should have done enough DD by now to not be concerned about this particular issue.
I heard there was some bureaucratic issue with the port that has been successfully resolved. The trucks that are being loaded on the pictures have to be going somewhere, right? I hope that resolves your "substantial investor's concern."
The PR dates back to Apr. 2009, back then the prices on the iron ore market were a fraction of what they are now. China hadn't even begun exhibiting the demand again after the 2008-2009 markets crash. CWRN had to deal with those miserable prices, and the lack of leverage. I think this sort of market conditions back then is what ultimately resulted in the project being postponed up until now.
Now China is hungry for iron again, and the prices are at $152/tonne and rising. Also, CWRN stated that it will be selling through spot trade which will result in higher revenues as well, as opposed to the contract where you lose some of the profit in exchange for on-paper commitment from the steel mill.
Manipulation at its best.
Where did that number even come from?
There is no dilution, you are wrong.
I don't think he was trying to convince you of anything, more like FYI. The whole point of investing is being able to seek out and recognize opportunities before they become sure shots and well-known. At that point it will be too late to get in. Might as well put your money in a savings account.
TDAmeritrade doesn't have issues like that. Scottrade is the worst, they block a lot of micro caps:
http://www.onlinestockbrokerreviews.com/scottrade/clearing-restrictions.php (Outdated but gives you an idea)
You say the company is diluting and then you say that the volume is low today, those things do not go together.
Hight OS is normal for developing micro caps, 2B is actually comparably low considering that most of it are restricted shares. The structure will be reconsidered once the company is making money.
This is the pace I would like to see. Beats having a 300% run within ten minutres, and then having day traders eating it down to the opening price.
Dec. 2nd?
CWRN DD AND NEW PRODUCTION PICS
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=56463918
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=56464891
GOOD LUCK!
CWRN DD + NEW PRODUCTION PICS
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=56463918
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=56464891
Good Luck to All!
CWRN $1 PPS in 2011
Starting January next year CWRN will be shipping via PanaMax one to two 75,000 DWT loads per months.
(www.marketwire.com/press-release/CWRN-Baja-Iron-Mining-Project-in-Full-Production-1349792.htm)
This means an average of 1.5 shipment a month. The number comes up to 18 shipped loads per year.
18 x 75,000 DWT = 1350000 DWT
According to www.mbironoreindex.com, iron prices keep rising and are currently at about $152/tonne.
1350000 DWT x $152/tonne = $205,200,000
This is our anticipated revenue for 2011, MORE THAN TWO HUNDRED MILLION DOLLARS!
According to the company's preliminary projections (www.marketwire.com/press-release/Cotton-Western-Mining-Inc-CWRN-12636000000-Revenues-Projected-on-first-2808000-Metric-975457.htm), their profit margin will be around 50% before tax. This is reasonable for high-margin, high-demand commodity like iron ore, but for the sake of being conservative, let's say it will be 40%.
$205,200,000 x 0.40% = $82,080,000
This is our anticipated earnings for 2011 before tax.
Now, the last update on the share structure was 2.3B OS, of which 2B were restricted shares, and the float was 300M. I assume the company could have converted some of the restricted shares into free-trading ones for the purposes of supporting this enormous project. Let's assume the worst case scenario that the entire 2.3B shares are free-trading.
Then our earnings per share can be calculated as follows:
$82,080,000 / 2.3B Shares = $0.036 per share.
Established companies with high shareholder confidence trade at 20x - 30x of their EPS. In CWRN's case, 10x should be reasonable, so a fair PPS under the anticipated conditions in 2011 is 36 cents per share.
***** 36 cents per share is what can conservatively be calculated considering the worst case scenario for the share structure, disregarding the fact the iron ore prices are rapidly rising, ignoring any expansion potential, and WITHOUT CONSIDERATION OF THE 60% BUYBACK. The reality is that CWRN trades as if the float was MUCH less than what I used in my calculations, and that the buyback will start as soon as the first revenues are in. Thus, all in all, $1 per share is something I would expect for the company with this much potential. It might seem like quite a leap from where we are now, but feel free to go over all the aforementioned math on your own, look at the millions of dollars worth of equipment on the production site, and then decide for yourself if this sort of risk/reward ratio is for you.
P.S. For those who like seeking out rare long-term plays in the pinky land, Baja 14 has 8 million DMT of ore (www.marketwire.com/press-release/CWRN-Cotton-Western-Mining-Inc-Projects-Additional-One-Million-Metric-Tons-Usable-Iron-984505.htm), with an additonal million discovered just recently (www.marketwire.com/press-release/CWRN-Additional-10000000000-in-New-Baja-14-Iron-Found-1291865.htm). Those deposits alone will keep CWRN busy for nearly a decade. For a complete list of the company's iron mines see: www.cottonwestern.com/iron_mines.php.
Good Luck to All!
i.t.m.d.
0.001 hit
Great things to come!
Good morning, indeed!
He definitely is willing to talk shareholders. This is one thing you hardly ever see with other companies, even the smallest ones. Though he has been pretty busy lately with the project being up and running.
Nice. Getting some attention now. The $100M number was actually just the additional iron ore that CWRN discovered while preparing Baja for production.
You can add that $100M to another billion dollars that was already there:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=49864259
It has to very close to the last known number of 300M, it would not move as easy as it does if it was much higher.