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Sao Tome and Principe: Petrobras, Galp and Sonangol consortium created “soon”, says foreign minister [ 2009-01-22 ]
Brasilia, Brazil, 22 Jan - The creation of an oil consortium in Sao Tome involving Brazil’s Petrobras, Galp of Portugal and Angola’s Sonangol could soon go ahead, the archipelago’s foreign minister, Carlos Tiny, said Wednesday.
Tiny told the Lusa news agency at the end of a Brazil visit that the petroleum joint venture “is on the table and is being worked on to be wrapped up shortly.”
Previous Sao Tome governments have planned the creation of a consortium of firms from Portuguese-speaking states for exploration ventures in the islands’ exclusive economic zone.
In April 2008, Sao Tome’s then prime minister, Patrice Trovoada, said the close cultural ties between the Lusophone states would “facilitate the deal.”
Carlos Tiny said a number of Brazilian oil sector delegations are expected in Sao Tome in the first half of this year. Sao Tomean Prime Minister Rafael Branco will also travel to Brazil during the same period.
Tiny held talks in Brasilia with counterpart Celso Amorim and the minister of the special secretariat for fisheries, Altemir Gregolin, as well as officials from other ministries and bodies.
Two bilateral accords were inked during Tiny’s visit, including one to fund another stage of the Solidarity Literacy program that has already benefited over 10,000 islanders in Sao Tome since 2001.
Another pact was signed in the fisheries sector to give new impetus to three strategic sectors in Sao Tome – food security, infrastructures, water and power, and tourism. (macauhub)
N’Delta: 1 Dead as Militants Kidnap Oil Vessel Crew
From Ahamefula Ogbu in Port Harcourt with agency reports, 01.18.2009
One person was killed when assailants kidnapped the crew of an oil-industry vessel in Nigeria's restive Niger Delta region, a security official said Sunday.
But militants claimed the Nigerian military botched a mission to rescue two British oil workers held hostage for months.
The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), said in an e-mail Sunday that the British hostages were not in a village raided overnight by the military. The group said it separated the pair and moved them deeper into the region's vast network of creeks and mangrove swamps.
The military had no comment on any rescue operation.
The British hostages were among 27 oil workers kidnapped from a vessel on September 9, 2008. The other hostages were later released.
In the other incident, unidentified gunmen attacked boats near a crude-oil loading installation late Saturday, a private security official said. He said the gunmen had tried to board an oil tanker but failed and then attacked a smaller service vessel where one person was killed.
He spoke on condition of anonymity due to company prohibitions on dealings with the media.
Lt. Col. Sagir Musa, military spokesman, confirmed the attack, saying the entire Nigerian crew of one boat had been taken hostage.
MEND said one of its "affiliates" launched the attack to press the message that the military could not protect the oil industry.
The militants are behind nearly three years of rising violence in the southern Niger Delta, where over 200 foreign workers had been kidnapped. The hostages were normally released after a ransom was paid.
The militants said their deeply impoverished area had not benefited from five decades of oil production and wanted more federally held oil funds to be sent to the southern oil states.
The government acknowledges the grievances of many in the Niger Delta, but denounces the militants as criminals who use the struggle as a cover to make money by stealing crude oil and selling it overseas.
Corrupt government officials, however, also siphon off and sell oil and many state-level politicians are linked to the militants and other armed gangs.
Nigeria is Africa's top oil producer, but attacks on the industry's infrastructure have reduced production by almost a quarter. It is routinely ranked as one of the most corrupt countries in the world.
My Plans for N/Delta, By Ekaette
From Ahamefula Ogbu in Port Harcourt and Chuks Okocha in Abuja, 01.18.2009
Newly appointed Mi-nister of Niger Delta, Chief Uffot Ekaette has promised radical transformation of the Niger Delta which in over 50 years of oil exploration has been deprived of commensurate development in relation to their contribution to the growth of the national economy.
Speaking during a courtesy visit on Governor Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers State at the weekend, Ekaette said he would not waste any time on rhetoric and bickering and that the ministry would initiate immediate moves to attain immediate changes.
Waxing philosophical, he said he believed in the possibility of changing the story of the region and that rather than wait for when all the funds needed for the development of the region would be provided, he would start with what was available and press for more as his achievements would be matched with available funds.
“There is time for everything. After 50 years of oil production in the Niger Delta characterised by environmental degradation, poverty and diseases, it is time to change the story and open up the area with good roads, water, electricity, houses and hospitals.
“It is time to get our local experts to do things that were once considered exclusive for foreigners and encourage them to be the very best. We must however advise that those who will be handling the projects for the ministry should be ready to render quality service and on time since no one would be allowed to go away with any public fund in the name of project execution”, he said.
In an apparent reference to the calls especially by the Watchdog of Niger Delta that he should not hold the position of Minister of the Niger Delta Ministry, he replied that his insistence on doing the right things at all times led to the agitation against his candidacy for the headship of the new ministry. He added that he has no regrets.
He, however, noted that the time now should be for action instead of infighting, adding, “We have been talking for too long: It is time to get into action to redeem our ugly past and take the people to the next level. They did not commit any offence for having oil in their backyard”.
On his expectations from the new Ministry, Ekaette said, “We would be very happy ministers to see roads, bridges and other means of transportation spring up as soon as possible in areas which are currently inaccessible. To give meaning to the creation of the new ministry, we will shortly begin to take radical steps to put physical infrastructure where they are most needed in the Niger Delta”.
However, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has asked the Federal Government to ensure that 70 percent of the staff strength of the newly created Niger Delta ministry is drawn from the seven oil producing states.
According to a statement issued in Abuja by the National Vice Chairman of the party in the South-south zone, Chief Edet Nkpubre and signed by his Special Assistant, Marshall Okon, the party called on the Federal Government, “to use the new ministry to address the festering issue of youth unemployment in the Niger Delta by ensuring that over 70 percent of its staff is sourced from the Niger Delta.”
The party said further that if 70 per cent of the staff members are indigines of the oil producing areas, it will go a long way in addressing the unemployment crisis in the Niger Delta.
The party also said government should source the remaining 30 percent from the civil service pool.
According to the statement titled “Obong Ufot Ekaette’s Ministerial Appointment and Matters Arising”, the PDP stated that it is in full support of the appointment of the former Secretary to the Government of the Federation to become the pioneer Minister in charge of the Ministry of Niger Delta.
EEZ News: Sao Tome and Principe: Government wants Brazilian oil company to be part of consortium for exclusive Sao Tome area [ 2009-01-16 ]
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 16 Jan – Sao Tome’s Foreign Affairs minister, Carlos Tiny said Thursday in Rio de Janeiro that it was possible that Brazilian state oil company Petrobras would be part of a consortium to be created with Portugal’s Galp and Angola’s Sonangol for exploration of Sao Tome’s exclusive area.
After a meeting with the international business department of Petrobras in Rio de Janeiro, Tiny said that the Sao Tome government was still at an initial stage of talks with the Brazilian oil company but that, “there are routes open to take more concrete steps,” over the next two years.
In his turn, the Brazilian ambassador in Sao Tome and Principe, Manuel Inocêncio Santos, said he believed it was “perfectly possible” that Petrobras would be involved on several levels and not only being part of the consortium.
The Brazilian government, according to the diplomat, has experience in dealing with many of the problems that Sao Tome and Principe faces and could contribute in the areas of education, namely by training teachers and promoting literacy, and in health, in programmes to combat malaria.
As part of a strategic partnership with Brazil, ambassador Inocêncio dos Santos said that it was important for Brazil to be involved in the cycle of development on which Sao Tome is focusing over the next few years.
The Minister also met Thursday with Brazil’s National Oil Agency (ANP) to assess the future prospects of support for creating the infrastructures of the Sao Tome oil regulating agency.
The visit to Brazil aims to make preparations for a visit to Brazil by the Prime Minister of Sao Tome and Principe, Rafael Branco, due to take place in the current quarter. (macauhub)
EEZ News: Sao Tome and Principe: Government wants Brazilian oil company to be part of consortium for exclusive Sao Tome area [ 2009-01-16 ]
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 16 Jan – Sao Tome’s Foreign Affairs minister, Carlos Tiny said Thursday in Rio de Janeiro that it was possible that Brazilian state oil company Petrobras would be part of a consortium to be created with Portugal’s Galp and Angola’s Sonangol for exploration of Sao Tome’s exclusive area.
After a meeting with the international business department of Petrobras in Rio de Janeiro, Tiny said that the Sao Tome government was still at an initial stage of talks with the Brazilian oil company but that, “there are routes open to take more concrete steps,” over the next two years.
In his turn, the Brazilian ambassador in Sao Tome and Principe, Manuel Inocêncio Santos, said he believed it was “perfectly possible” that Petrobras would be involved on several levels and not only being part of the consortium.
The Brazilian government, according to the diplomat, has experience in dealing with many of the problems that Sao Tome and Principe faces and could contribute in the areas of education, namely by training teachers and promoting literacy, and in health, in programmes to combat malaria.
As part of a strategic partnership with Brazil, ambassador Inocêncio dos Santos said that it was important for Brazil to be involved in the cycle of development on which Sao Tome is focusing over the next few years.
The Minister also met Thursday with Brazil’s National Oil Agency (ANP) to assess the future prospects of support for creating the infrastructures of the Sao Tome oil regulating agency.
The visit to Brazil aims to make preparations for a visit to Brazil by the Prime Minister of Sao Tome and Principe, Rafael Branco, due to take place in the current quarter. (macauhub)
Sao Tome and Principe: Portugal’s Mota-Engil to build new water supply system [ 2009-01-16 ]
Sao Tome, Sao Tome and Principe, 16 Jan – The subsidiary of Portuguese construction company Mota-Engil in Sao Tome Thursday signed an agreement with the Sao Tome government to build a new water supply system in the country’s capital, valued at US$5.8 million.
The project know as “Água Clara 1 and 2” and funded by the African Development Bank by a total of US$2.7 million, the European Fund (US$2.5 million) and the Sao Tome government, which will provide US$600,000.
Mota-Engil has 20 months to carry out the work on a system that will supply the armed forces general headquarters, the main hospital in the city of Sao Tome and neighbourhoods on the outskirts of the city.
New tanks with a storage capacity of 650 cubic metres of water are to be built in the Agua Agrião area in the district of Mé Zochi and the installation of 14 kilometres of gas piping and refurbishment of another four kilometres of the distribution network. (macauhub)
Nigerian oil militants threaten to end ceasefire
Wed Jan 14, 2009 1:08pm EST
By Austin Ekeinde
PORT HARCOURT, Nigeria, Jan 14 (Reuters) - The main militant group in Nigeria's oil-producing Niger Delta threatened on Wednesday to end its ceasefire and attack military targets in retaliation for the killing by soldiers of a gang leader.
"MEND has decreed today every soldier in uniform inside the Niger Delta region as a fair target," the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) said in an e-mailed statement.
"Our first spectacular urban attack on a military patrol will announce the end of the ceasefire."
The military said on Tuesday it had shot and killed a gang leader who spearheaded violent clashes between rival factions over control of a lucrative trade in stolen oil.
Tubotamuno Angolia, also known as "Boy Chiki", was arrested in the Bakana district of Rivers state but was shot when he tried to escape, said Lieutenant Colonel Sagir Musa, spokesman for the joint military taskforce in Rivers.
MEND rejected that version of events, saying Angolia had been handcuffed and urinated and spat on before being executed.
It said Angolia was not a member of MEND, but that such killings by the security forces were becoming "a common practice endorsed by the Nigerian government" in the Niger Delta.
The military said on Wednesday they had arrested four more suspected criminals, including Barikpoa Nwinam, alias ECOMOG, believed to be the hitman for militia leader Ateke Tom, blamed for the violence in Okrika district of Rivers state.
Troops also arrested Clifford Kamana, who is alleged to have organised several kidnappings, including the recent seizure of the mother of a local politician for ransom.
MEND, which has been holding two British oil workers hostage for four months, began a unilateral ceasefire in the Niger Delta in late September following a week of clashes with the military and attacks on oil industry installations.
MEND's three-year old campaign of violence has cut oil output from Nigeria, the world's eighth biggest exporter, by around a fifth.
It has threatened in the past to end its September ceasefire but has so far not launched any significant attacks. (Additional reporting by Nick Tattersall in Lagos, editing by Mark Trevelyan)
Sao Tome and Principe: Reconstruction of runway at international airport begins [ 2009-01-14 ]
Sao Tome, Sao Tome and Principe, 14 Jan – Work to rebuild the runway at Sao Tome international airport began Tuesday and is expected to cost US$2 million, officials said.
The work is the responsibility of Sao Tome company, Constep and will affect 1,820 metres of a total 2,220 metres of the runway, which is in na “advanced state of disrepair,” according to the archipelago’s Infrastructure Minister.
The project also includes replacing the entire lighting system along the runway’s length.
Minister Benjamim Vera Cruz also said he believes that “this project will ensure that Sao Tome and Principe will remain on the list of country’s offering some airport guarantees.”
He added that the government, “is working on securing funding,” for the total modernisation of the Sao Tome and Principe International Airport to move ahead this year. (macauhub)
6 Out Of The Last 7 February's We've Had Good S/P Increase.
Redinvest; I Also Believe The Share Price Will Increase From Here As The Year End Tax Sellers Begin To Return.
Charts: 6 Out Of The Last 7 Years ERHE Price Has Improved Considerably, Ruffly Starting Around February. An easy prediction. At these very low prices, those who buy now will be making good money in the next few months. Even though I thought my boat was full, @ 10 to 12 cents, last week I couldn't resist, had to load more. IMHO these prices are a no brainer. GLTA
U.S. to lead new anti-pirate force
A NEW international force to combat piracy off the coast of Somalia is being formed and will be headed by an American admiral, the U.S. navy says.
More than 20 nations are expected to contribute to the force, due to be fully operational later in January.
The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) says that after the more than 100 attacks last year, the International Maritime Bureau said increased naval patrols had reduced hijackings in December last year.
The EU formed an anti-piracy task force in December.
Ships from other navies, including Canada, Iran, India and China, have also been patrolling one of the world's busiest sea lanes - the waters of the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean leading to and from the Suez Canal.
US Navy Rear Admiral Terence McKnight has been named the commander of the new force, called Combined Task Force 151 (CTF-151), the US Fifth Fleet said in a statement from its headquarters in Bahrain.
A spokeswoman for the force, Commander Jane Campbell, told the BBC that France, the Netherlands, the UK, Pakistan, Canada and Denmark were among the countries participating in CTF-151.
The area the pirates operate in is larger than the Mediterranean Sea and the shipping lane the force will patrol is 480 miles (780km) long, she said.
About 60 warships would be required to effectively patrol this sea lane, she said, while about one-third of that number had been committed to the new force.
Cmdr Campbell said merchant vessels could take heightened security measures to thwart pirates, including pulling up ladders they leave hanging from their sterns to allow pilots to come aboard, travelling at high speeds to create a large wake to prevent pirates from boarding, and keeping a sharp watch and maintaining communications with other ships and the new task force.
Despite only two successful hijackings in December, Somali pirates still hold about 15 ships carrying more than 200 crew members. One of these is the Saudi oil tanker the Sirius Star, captured in November.
Govt lists terms for oil blocks award
* Seeks N37b for power projects
From John-Abba Ogbodo and Emeka Anuforo, Abuja
TO avoid the controversy that trailed award of oil blocks in the various bid rounds during the last administration, the Federal Government has proposed stringent conditions for subsequent exercise in the country.
The new conditions are coming as the government expressed displeasure at the failure of its agencies to come up with alternative sources of power generation in the country.
Also, about N36.995 billion is required to complete outstanding projects and connect most communities in the country to power.
In an executive bill to the National Assembly on award of blocks, President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua said applications for either petroleum prospecting licence or petroleum mining lease should state clearly whether they are for crude oil or natural gas because there would be no approval for both.
"Every petroleum prospecting licence or petroleum mining lease shall clearly state that it shall be in respect of either crude oil or natural gas, but not of both crude oil or natural gas," section 257(2) of the bill says.
Section 2572 further states: 'Where a company having a licence or lease in respect of crude oil or natural gas desires to also engage in operations relating to either crude oil or natural gas that is not covered under the company's existing licence, that company may apply to the minister for the said licence or lease in respect of either crude oil or natural gas, the application of which shall not be unreasonably refused."
http://www.ngrguardiannews.com/news/article01//indexn2_html?pdate=060109&ptitle=Govt%20lists%20terms%20for%20oil%20blocks%20award
ANYTHING Is Possible In 5 Or 10 Years. Both Pro & Against high oil prices. Governments are talking about keeping a chain on Speculators so they can't do what they did again. So (I Believe) it will be quite awhile before "Market Forces" drive oil to $147.
Oil Didn't Run Up To $147. On Market Forces. It was run up by Speculators. The speed at which it ran up is proof. Same as the Hunt Brothers ran Silver up to $50. oh so long ago. Silver has never gone back to $50. & I don't think oil will see $147. for a very long time. When oil was nearing it's peek even OPEC was trying to bring the price down. They knew it was way too high & would be bad for business. (Smaller cars, different sources of energy, etc.) Oil will go back up, but to a more realistic level. IMHO.
Sao Tome and Principe: Start of drilling for oil exploration by Addax delayed until the end of 2009 [ 2008-12-26 ]
(Been Away For Awhile, Sorry If Already Posted)
Sao Tome, Sao Tome and Principe, 26 Dec – Swiss oil company Addax Petroleum announced it would begin drilling for oil in blocks 2, 3 and 4 of the joint development area (JDA) between Sao Tome and Principe and Nigeria.
Addax explained the delay, of about a year, by noting the stalemate in the results for prospecting block 1 of the JDA by Chevron and the abrupt fall in oil prices over the last few months on the international market.
Addax partners China’s Sinopec in the exploration of three oil blocks.
The two companies announced that they planned to invest US$73.8 million in oil prospecting in the JDA between Sao Tome and Principe and Nigeria.
Jeff Schrull, a representative of both companies recently said that prospecting work would take until 2013.
The joint exploration treaty signed between Sao Tome and Principe and Nigeria in February 2001, states that Nigeria receives 60 percent of revenues while 40 percent goes to Sao Tome. (macauhub)
He Has Bought All The Cheap Shares He Wanted & Now It's Time To Help Run The Price Back Up.
Wow my ERHE SP calculations were off a hundred fold
ERHE is not going to $.07 it's going to $7.0
Wow how did I not see this error!
OHO
Nigeria to Supply 25% of US Oil by 2015
From Constance Ikokwu in Washington, D.C., 12.17.2008
Nigeria’s crude oil export to the United States will leap to 25 per cent by 2015. The Minister of Foreign Affairs, Chief Ojo Maduekwe, made the revelation while delivering a speech at the Southern Center for International Studies, Atlanta, Georgia, entitled “Old Ties in New Times: Nigeria and the next USA Administration.”
The estimate is a progression from the current 15 per cent Nigeria exports to the country and may be an indication of US government’s shift from Middle East oil to African sources.
Nigeria has already surpassed Saudi-Arabia and Venezuela which were two main sources of oil to the US economy.
An increase to 25 per cent will make Nigeria the fifth largest exporter of the commodity to the US.
In his speech, Maduekwe outlined the future relationship of Nigeria and the US as defined by oil.
“The fairly robust profile of Nigeria-US relations can be explained by several factors. One the one hand are the factors of oil and gas resources and geo-strategic leverage of Nigeria in the region.
“We are estimated to supply about 25 per cent by the year 2015. Currently, this makes Nigeria the fifth largest supplier of crude oil to the United States, meaning that Nigeria has been, and will be, substantially relevant to the energy security of the United States in the foreseeable future,” he said.
According to Maduekwe, oil resources for Nigeria boosts foreign exchange earnings and enhances “economic capacity” for the country's peace-keeping activities on the African continent.
He added that the relationship which in his view is cordial has “complemented government-to-government relations that has transcended political, military, economic, technical, immigration and cultural co-operation at various levels”.
Experts say demand for energy is expected to rise in the near future, causing a squabble over scarce resources.
More than 40 per cent demand will come from China, 20 per cent from India and 20 per cent from the Middle East, says an estimate released last month by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
On a global level, world oil production is expected to rise from 82 mb/d in 2007 to 104 mb/d in 2030 in the Reference Scenario.
Sao Tome and Principe: Government plans unchanged despite delay in start of oil prospecting [ 2008-12-12 ]
Sao Tome, Sao Tome and Principe, 12 Dec – The execution of the Government programme in Sao Tome and Principe will remain unchanged despite a delay in the start of oil prospecting in the Sao Tome and Principe/Nigeria Joint Development Area, Sao Tome’s prime minister said Thursday.
Speaking to Portuguese news agency Lusa, Rafael Branco said that his government was not counting on oil revenues to fund the State Budget for 2009, which was approved by Parliament Wednesday.
Some of the companies operating in the Sao Tome and Principe/Nigeria Joint Development Area said there would likely be a delay of a year in the process of prospecting in the “intact” blocks, at a time when oil companies are re-thinking their investments due to a fall in teh price of hydrocarbons.
The State Budget for 2009 was approved with favourable vote from the three parties that support the government and rejected by the ten opposition members , from the Acção Democrática Independente (ADI) party.
The document will now be discussed in detail and within the next tem days is expected to receive overall approval. (macauhub)
Gasman; Oily Posted (In Pictures) "Do not be shocked when brand new investigation hits"
World Oil Demand to Decline by 500,000bpd
By Ejiofor Alike, 12.09.2008
United States Energy Information Administra-tion (EIA) has predicted that the world crude oil consumption will decline by 500,000 barrels per day in 2008 and 2009, making it the first time since the 1970s that global crude demand had fallen in two consecutive years.
In its monthly short term outlook issued yesterday, EIA also said that the increasing likelihood of a prolonged global economic downturn had continued to dominate market perceptions, putting downward pressure on oil prices.
EIA noted that if the world economy recovers sooner, oil consumption could decline at a slower rate or potentially increase instead, putting upward pressure on oil prices.
“The status of the global economy has become the most important driver of oil consumption growth and EIA’s oil consumption projections continue to be revised downward in response to lower forecasts for global economic growth. As a result, global oil consumption is expected to decline by 50,000 barrels per day in 2008 and by 450,000 bbl/d in 2009, which would mark the first time in 3 decades that world consumption would decline in 2 consecutive years,” the EIA said.
The EIA also said it expects the price of oil to average $51 a barrel in 2009.
EIA projects that OPEC crude production will fall from 32.6 million barrels per day in the third quarter of 2008 to 30.6 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2009 from its earlier estimated of 31.26 million bpd. OPEC crude production is expected to average 30.6 million bpd in 2009, about 1.6 million barrels per day below 2008 levels
“OPEC is scheduled to meet on December 17 to evaluate the effectiveness of its earlier decisions to cut production targets by 1.5 million barrels per day and to weigh the need for additional production cuts. Although the extent of OPEC members' compliance with the last production cut is still uncertain, EIA believes that the continued weak market conditions will prompt higher-than-usual compliance among OPEC members,” EIA said.
“It remains unclear whether production cuts so far are enough to avoid a counter-seasonal inventory build in the fourth quarter of 2008, a build that would add to downward price pressure over the winter. The position of some OPEC members at the upcoming meeting may be influenced by a desire to avoid excessive production cuts that might further tighten the market and trigger a sharp price rebound that could hurt the world economy,” EIA added.
It also said that crude oil supply from non-members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is expected to decline by 310,000 barrels per day in 2008.
EIA attributes this decline to a combination of factors that include large supply disruptions in Central Asia and the Gulf of Mexico and project delays.
EIA projects that total non-OPEC supply will grow by 410,000 bpd in 2009, down from the EIA's prior estimate of 490,000 bpd, with the largest sources of growth coming from Azerbaijan , Brazil and the United States .
That would put non-Opec output next year at an average 49.09 million bpd, down from 49.2 million bpd the EIA has previously forecast.
Tokelley "if it goes the same as the JDZ auctions." We Will Have To have BACKUP Partners Also.
Oily; On Nov. 12th Your Reply To BB.....
"4. I told the board I wouldn't be posting until after ROO news. Any guesses on how long that might be?
Response: 2 weeks"
Only 2 days to go Hoss.
Would make a very nice Thanksgiving, but somehow I don't see it.
OPEC Lowers 2009 Oil Demand Forecast
Deutsche Presse-Agentur (dpa) Monday, November 17, 2008
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Monday lowered its estimate for global oil demand growth in 2009 for the third straight month, citing the downturn of highly industrialized economies.
In its latest monthly oil market report, the Vienna-based organization forecast 86.68 million barrels per day of crude oil demand for next year, 530,000 barrels per day less than predicted in October.
The year-on-year growth rate in demand was lowered to 0.57%, compared with 0.87% stated in the previous report by the cartel, which produces around 40% of global oil.
"Oil demand growth will be boosted mainly by non-OECD countries, particularly the Middle East, Asia, and China," the report said, referring to countries outside the group of industrialized countries of the OECD.
But OPEC also lowered its projections for Chinese demand growth next year to 4.76%, from 5% in October.
The OECD said last Thursday that it expected economic activity to fall by 0.9% in the US in 2009, by 0.5% in the euro area and by 0.1% in Japan.
Although the oil cartel cut production from the start of November to stem the fall of the crude prices due to decreasing demand, the OPEC basket price continued to slump.
The group's oil ministers are set to gather for a consultative meeting in Cairo on November 29 to discuss lowering production even further, according to an OPEC official.
It is still unclear whether the talks on the sidelines of a meeting of the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) will yield an official decision, as it comes mere weeks before the next regular meeting in Oran, Algeria, on December 17.
The basket price of 13 OPEC crudes stood at $49.09 Monday, down from $57.43 at the end of October.
As OPEC Sets Crisis Talks, Market Mulls $30 Oil
by David Bird Dow Jones Newswires Monday, November 17, 2008
NEW YORK (Dow Jones Newswires), November 17, 2008
It seems the only people using more oil these days are OPEC ministers jetting off to crisis talks about tumbling global oil demand and collapsing prices.
OPEC ministers will hold emergency talks in Cairo on Nov. 29. Confirmation of the rumored talks came Friday as OPEC also said the price of its reference basket of crudes fell to $47.73 a barrel, the lowest since May 2005.
It's unclear whether OPEC will weigh further cuts in Cairo or simply assess the impact of output cuts agreed in last month's crisis talks ahead of still further talks scheduled for Dec. 17 in Algeria.
Alarm bells are ringing for OPEC because extra oil sloshing around in the market not only drags down prices now, but adds to bloated inventories and threatens to keep values depressed for months to come.
U.S. crude oil futures dipped to near $55 a barrels early Monday and some analysts warn that the bottom may be as low $30 to $35 a barrel. Inventories in consumer countries could climb to their highest level since 1998 as global oil demand posts the first year-to-year drop since 1983, they warn.
Amid the global economic meltdown, OPEC's reference price for crude has fallen by about 17% since it met on Oct. 24 to announce a Nov. 1 cut in output of 1.5 million barrels a day. In a budget-bruising drop, prices are down a whopping 66%, or $93 a barrel, from the highest price for OPEC oil, of $140.73 a barrel set in July.
Analysts had expected OPEC to agree a further cut of 1 million barrels a day in its output ceiling at a Dec. 17 meeting in Algeria. Now they are reworking the numbers to see whether that cut would be enough to mop up extra supply and if the earlier meeting date would make a difference in stabilizing the market.
Ministers from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are still set to meet in December, their fourth consecutive monthly gathering and the sixth conference this year, not including a hastily arranged meeting with producer countries in Saudi Arabia this summer, called to address record-high oil prices.
First Demand Drop Since 1983
Deutsche Bank said Friday that crude oil prices could fall to as low as $30-$35 a barrel, levels last seen in late 2003 and early 2004.
But while Adam Sieminski, the bank's chief energy economist, is holding to a $60 forecast for U.S. benchmark crude oil in 2009, he warns that world oil demand next year will fall for the first time since 1983 due to the global economic turmoil.
Sieminski forecasts a 500,000 barrels a day drop in global oil demand in 2009, adding that even with huge revisions, latest forecasts from public sector oil agencies are still too optimistic. The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects global oil demand to be virtually unchanged in 2009 from 2008, while the Paris-based International Energy sees growth of 350,000 barrels a day in 2009.
OPEC's expert staff said in a report Monday that "closer monitoring and more frequent intervention" in the oil market are required amid the current turbulence. OPEC cut its estimate for global oil demand growth in 2009 by 270,000 barrels a day, but still expects an increase of 490,000 barrels a day.
A slight silver lining for OPEC in the dark clouds over the oil market is that credit problems are keeping oil companies from building inventories as high as they might otherwise.
In the U.S., the world's largest oil consumer, crude oil stocks as of Nov. 7 are up 2% on a year ago at around 312 million barrels, but are some 12% below the recent high hit in June 2007. Measured against refiner demand (which is expected to hit a 12-year low for November), stocks cover 21.6 days of need, above the five-year average of 20.8 days.
U.S. crude oil and petroleum products inventories cover 52.6 days worth of stunted demand, compared with the five-year average of 48.8 days and the most in November since 2001.
Call For Non-OPEC Cuts
The IEA said commercial inventories held by the major industrialized nations in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development covered 56 days of demand in October.
OPEC, in early September, said it considered prevailing OECD stock cover of 53.4 days "comfortable."
But Sieminski sees stock-cover in the major industrialized countries rising to 57 days by the third quarter 2009. EIA said stock cover hasn't reached or exceeded that level since the third quarter of 1998, when prices were 30% below a year earlier.
In times of weak oil demand growth, as in 1998 and 2001, Sieminski said, OPEC output cuts provide little early support for prices. Market rallies lagged by three to six months from the last cut in OPEC output during those years.
"Since we expect the current quota reduction cycle to persist until the fourth quarter of 2009, it implies any sustained rally in crude oil will have to wait until sometime in 2010," he said in a report. In 2010, prices will average $57.50 a barrel, a $2.50 dip from the projected 2009 level, but will climb to an $80 a barrel average in 2011, he said.
With prices continuing weak, keeping OPEC harmony and achieving real output cuts will become increasingly difficult.
Although non-OPEC producers like Norway and Mexico are experiencing steep output declines and would ignore such pleas, OPEC is likely to urge producers outside the group to limit supplies to help rebalance the market. The Cairo meeting, which has been added to an already scheduled meeting of Arab oil exporters, is a likely venue to press the case.
It was in Cairo in December 2001 that OPEC took a ground-breaking step in this direction, under Algerian Oil Minister Chakib Khelil, who then, as now, serves as the group's president.
Back then, OPEC had earlier said it would cut output by 1.5 million barrels a day, but would do so only if non-OPEC producers made collective cuts of 500,000 barrels a day.
Russia, which recently has made strong overtures of increased cooperation with OPEC and said it wants to have more influence over oil prices, already has committed to attend the group's December meeting in Algeria as an observer.
Back in 2001, Russia, after earlier snubs, contributed 150,000 barrels a day of the non-OPEC cuts sought by OPEC. Still, some said the Russians simply were making virtue of necessity, as output already was expected to drop in the Siberian winter. Now, IEA projects Russian output of 10 million barrels a day in 2008 will drop to 9.85 million barrels a day next year.
Oil Prices: OPEC to Meet in Cairo
By Ejiofor Alike with agency report, 11.14.2008
The 13-member nation of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will meet in Cairo, Egypt on 29 November for "consultation" on the oil market, a senior Iranian oil official said yesterday, after oil prices continued their slide.
OPEC members are calling for action to halt oil's slide to around $56 a barrel as they face reduced revenues and a struggle to finance domestic programmes.
Iran had previously said the oil cartel could meet before a gathering scheduled for December 14 in Algeria, with some suggesting the meeting could be on 28 November in the Egyptian capital.
“It is not an extraordinary OPEC meeting; it is a consultation meeting to discuss market developments. It will be in Cairo on 29 November," the Iranian official, who asked not to be identified, was quoted as saying.
“The OPEC headquarters has sent a letter to all OPEC members to inform them about the meeting,” he added.
Meanwhile, Chief Executive Officer of Royal Dutch Shell, Mr. Jeroen van der Veer said yesterday that investing in oil projects could still be attractive with the price of $50 a barrel if taxes and royalties on oil production are not too high.
OPEC countries, including Nigeria had earlier said oil prices of around $80 per barrel were needed to justify investment in new projects.
Veer told reporters in Istanbul Shell was “very much interested” in Iraqi oil contracts, which he projected would be distributed in 2009, and Shell was in talks with a number of companies about a possible consortium.
OPEC president Chakib Khelil had earlier hinted that OPEC may cut output again if oil prices fell further and added that non-Arab oil producers could be invited to the Organisation of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) meeting.
OAPEC, which includes Arab states who members of OPEC are also, but not non-Arabs like Iran or Venezuela, was due to meet on 29 November in Cairo.
OPEC members agreed in October to reduce supplies by 1.5 million barrels per day, representing about 5 per cent, with effect from 1 November but that measure has failed to stop oil prices declining.
Tryoty Your Chart Is Very Interesting, Keeping In Mind When George Bush Started His Presidency & Now He B Leavin'.
Would love to see a chart on the price of peanuts & peanut oil during the Carter years.
LongTimer, $10. A Share Would Be A Good Enough Reason.
"As a company, they seem to have no reason to sell out early"
Thanks tamtam "must be enabled." eom
Board Moderators How Can I Have Mr. KSL On Ignore And Still His Posts Show Up On My Screen??? Is this something you can fix??
Tryoty; Respectfully Disagree. This company (Offor) has always kept it's cards close to the vest. Has anything that was in the works ever leaked out? Seems to me we only learn about what was "in the works" after the deal was signed.
It really isn't worth arguing about. If Offor was offered $1, $2, or $3+ for ERHC he would've let it leak out because it would lend credibility to his company that sorely needs credibility. To this day that is still the #1 problem, credibility and trust.
My Post Was In Fun, Borrowing From Oily's Post & Adding Wed. Red Chip News. And like I said...
"If I'm Dreamin', Just Let Me Dream")
2 Rig Announcements On Monday And Red Chip 2008 Elite Investment Conference in New York. On Wednesday.
COOL!
Should be a Fantastic week!
(As Brenda Lee said a long time ago... "If I'm Dreamin', Just Let Me Dream")
Falling Oil Prices: OPEC May Consider Another Cut
By Ejiofor Alike with agency report, 10.29.2008
Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), has said that it could call another meeting before the group's next scheduled meeting in December, to take a fresh look at its output.
This is coming barely four days after OPEC agreed on 1.5million barrels per day production cut, to address the falling price of oil.In response to nearly 60 per cent fall in oil prices from a record of $147.27 hit in July, OPEC agreed at an emergency meeting last week, to cut production by 1.5 million barrels per day.
However, the group's Secretary-General, Abdullah al-Badri, said yesterday that if prices continue to fall, OPEC would call another meeting.Agency report quoted the OPEC scribe as saying at a conference in London , that “if circumstances dictate we have to have another meeting, we will have a meeting before the (December) Algerian meeting.
”At the conference, Libya 's most senior oil official, Shokri Ghanem, said OPEC could need to reduce output further.“Talking about the recent cut, we have to wait to see how the market behaves in the coming weeks. If the price continues to deteriorate, it is going to affect everything,” Ghanem said.OPEC weekend at an Extraordinary Meeting in Vienna, Austria, approved a reduction in crude oil production by 1.5million barrels per day, with Nigeria accounting for 113,000 barrels per day of this figure.
The move, which was aimed at addressing declining prices of oil in the international market, will see Algeria reducing its daily production by 71, 000 barrels per day.Other member countries affected include Angola, 99,000bpd; Ecuador, 27,000 bpd; Islamic Republic of Iran, 199,000 bpd; Kuwait, 132,000 bpd; Libya, 89,000 bpd; Qatar 43,000 bpd; Saudi Arabia, 466,000 bpd United Arab Emirate 134,000 bpd and Venezuela, 129,000 bpd.
Meanwhile, oil prices have continued to fall, despite last week's 1.5 million-barrel-a-day cut in production.US light sweet crude for delivery in December dropped to a 17-month low of $61.30 a barrel before recovering somewhat to trade at $62.42.London Brent crude fell below $60 a barrel before recovering to $61.32.
In a communiqué released at the end of the conference, OPEC said the Extraordinary Meeting was convened in order to discuss the current global financial crisis, the world economic situation and their impacts on the oil market.
According to the communiqué, the conference began by emphasising that it shared the concern of the international community – “of which OPEC Member Countries are an integral part -- over ongoing developments in financial markets”.OPEC also stated that it observed that the financial crisis was already having a noticeable impact on the world economy, and had also dampened the demand for energy in general, and oil in particular.“This slowdown in oil demand is serving to exacerbate the situation in a market which has been over-supplied with crude for some time, an observation which the Organisation has been making since earlier this year. Moreover, forecasts indicate that the fall in demand will deepen, despite the approach of winter in the northern hemisphere.
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Oil’s Not Well Ahead of OPEC Meeting
By Chika Amanze-Nwachuku and Ejiofor Alike with agency report, 10.23.2008
Crude oil prices dropped below $68 a barrel yesterday, ahead of tomorrow’s meeting of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
The price of crude oil has tumbled 54 per cent from its peak of $147.27 reached on July 11.
According to the Star Tribune, light, sweet crude for December delivery fell $4.03 to $68.15 on the New York Mercantile Exchange in morning trading. Earlier, it sank as low as $67.50 a barrel, the lowest level for a front-month contract since June 2007.
In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures fell 10 cents to $2.17 a gallon, while gasoline prices dropped 10.32 cents to $1.58 a gallon. Natural gas for November delivery jumped 7.6 cents to $6.92 per 1,000 cubic feet. In London, December Brent crude fell $3.72 to $66 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.
OPEC, which accounts for about 40 per cent of global oil supply, signalled its plans to announce an output quota reduction at an emergency of meeting in Vienna. The meeting earlier scheduled to take place November 18 was moved forward to October 24, sequel to the falling oil prices.
But the Federal Government has said it will not be in the interest of the country to cut crude oil production.
Speaking in Abuja yesterday, the Minister of State for Energy (Petroleum), Mr Odein Ajumogobia, said the country needed oil revenues and would not favour a cut in crude oil supply.
He said: “A cut in oil production does not really favour us because we are looking at huge oil revenue to come in for our budget.”
While some analysts predict an output cut of 1million barrels, others said the group might slash production by over 2 million barrels. Investors are however sceptical about how much of the cut will be implemented.
In its monthly report released last week, OPEC said it expected the demand for its crude oil in 2009 to be 31.14 million barrels daily, which is a downward revision of 190,000 bpd from last month's report and 870,000 bpd less than its estimate of demand for OPEC crude in 2008.
OPEC output in September averaged 32.16 million bpd, down 310,000 bpd on the month. The report implied that the group would need to reduce output from September production levels to meet average demand next year -- although seasonal demand normally runs higher during the northern hemisphere winter.
OPEC said its forecast was based on world economic growth slowing to 3.8 per cent this year and 3.3 per cent in 2009. The group cut its projection for world oil demand growth both this year and next but also said additional supplies from non-OPEC producers were not reaching levels previously expected. OPEC controls 40 percent of world’s oil production.
The energy markets have also been weighed down by the weak stock market, as investors grow more pessimistic about how long it will take the economy to recover from the current global financial turmoil.
Tryoty Good Going. Looks like you were successful.
BANNED
printmail01 10/22/2008 07:33:45 PM IH Admin [Matt] 01/20/2009 07:33:45 PM
Tryoty: Thanks For The Info & I Concur. Awful lot of harmless posts disappearing here. Please let's not go from a Moderated Board to a Censured Board.
I Didn't Ask For A Bucket Full Of Negatives, Just The Date.
??? When Does Drilling Have To Start, According To The JDZ Contracts?