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I'd say I am an average American with an average balance sheet, nothing more, nothing less.
We can argue whether some immediate action was needed or not and no one can state definitively where the credit and equity markets would be without the action. In fact it is probably likely that if no action were taken and the credit and equity markets melted down further you would also be blaming the Bush administration for NOT taking enough action. True?
But your very argument about the results of the package are the exact arguments Republicans use against the Democratic policies of 'big government intervention'! The federal government generally fails at administering any large market intervention, be it economic, social or educational. Republicans support laizze faire economics and states rights (read that: locally administered programs that have a better chance of being managed well). I am glad to see that you understand that the federal government should try to remain small and keep large intervention programs at a minimum.
But many people are suffering, the worst is yet to come, and now the country is $700 billion poorer, but the banks were able to pocket some money and give nice executive bonuses, and in some cases, big vacation trips to California spas.
this makes me optimistic...I for one have already adjusted to my new balance sheet (approx 30% losses post market meltdown and housing losses). But I need some confidence that my current balance sheet is stable. Adjusting your asset allocation is a big part of that (i.e. more cash and bonds and less equities) but lack of liquidity in the housing market is a problem. I need to know that I can sell my property at some price (that is not falling by the month). Once I know that then confidence can return. I think there are others in my position. So your 3 year projection (with 2 years time served) is a boost to my confidence. Obama administration forcing mortgage rates lower will further compliment your time projection but could have a boomerang affect in the longer term. More study needed on that.
In the middle of the credit crisis I had no problem getting a loan from Capital One for my new Buick Enclave.
Thanks Bush Administration!
I think your algorithm needs to start with housing prices bottoming (and seeing Case-Shiller index with two months of stability). My model suggests that consumer spending will continue lower until homeowners can reassess their balance sheets and have some confidence that it is accurate. Once they 'feel' that they have some level of liquidity in the real estate portion of their assests, I think consumers can begin to reverse the trend. I agree that you could argue that severe unemployment is the wild card here, but if we stay under 10% then I think housing is more important.
Note: nice buy today of INTC, I will be looking to add a bit here as well.
Indeed. That too.
I agree 100% wrt lessons learned in 2008 with INTC. The only real investment lesson I learned this year is that you 'can't fight the analysts' and this lesson was learned in the first 3 months of 2008 not in the second half of the year when the stock to took it's biggest hits.
I propose we have one day a year where all personal attacks and insults are allowed on the board. It would help clear the air and clearly identify all allegiances to any new message boards participants. We could call it 'National Yahoo Message Board Day'!
Perhaps today is that day.
wbmw, is AMD's movement down the pricing ladder bullish for Intel or does it just indicate that the price war continues? In other words, will AMD continue the battle for market share using price as their (only) weapon until it is either bankrupt or settles in with some level of market share that Intel is content with allowing them to have?
Hope you aren't holding any ROHM HAAS CO too.
Netbook vs. notebook, just as an anecdote, I was quizzing the Best Buy salesperson about how fast netbooks were being sold as Christmas gifts. And while they had been selling a number of netbooks over the last few months, most people buying computers as a Christmas gift were buying laptops in the <$1000 dollar range with C2D or Celeron inside. So while I had thought people that buy a computer as a Christmas gift might be drawn down into the lowest price range for a computer (a netbook), it still seems that the notebook is the gift of choice for many consumers.
The point being that I think it's too early to draw conclusions about the commoditization of laptops or the cannibalization of notebooks by netbooks. The netbook may truly be a new product segment.
Professor, deceitful scheme aside, I was alluding more to the underlying economics of the deal being in jeopardy.
Kuwait cancels deal with Dow Chemical...
The deal had angered some Kuwaiti parliamentarians who said the project was not economically viable in light of the global financial crisis and slumping petrochemical sales.
A cabinet statement said the global crisis had prompted the cabinet to ask the council "to take the necessary measures to cancel the contract ... within a sound legal framework while safeguarding the state's rights and interests," KUNA reported.
http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssIndustrialConglomerates/idUSLS30882120081228
Hmmmm, could The Foundry Company also be in jeopardy?
Carputer...could these become standard issue in all cars in a few years? If so it could be a new revenue source for Intel. Seems like it could as netbook prices are already in the 300-400 range. Wouldn't a lot of people want a built-in computing device if it only adds < $500 to the total cost? I thought of the navigation, OnStar and Sattelite radio as total luxury add-ons a few years ago (that I would never need) yet I now have all of them in the Buick Enclave I bought this year.
barron's story on Intel market share increase...
Anyone have access to the highlights of this article?
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB122997819884827361.html?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo
This is the kind of thinking that I believe will only gain more momentum going forward and will lead to the eventual dissolution of the AMD-AbuDahbi-NY deal. How long can the madness behind this publicly subsidized capacity expansion by a company that loses millions every quarter continue? My vote in the survey was that this deal does not happen.
I can envisage a scenario where the proliferation of cheap netbooks (as gifts for example) could lead to an explosion in notebook sales in the follow-on years. Kind of like buying your first cheap cordless drill eventually leads to buying a Makita.
Clearwire being sued by Adaptix Inc.
http://washington.bizjournals.com/washington/stories/2008/12/15/daily115.html?ana=yfcpc
I think a poll is in order! Elmer can you set this up?
How many think the AMD-AbuDahbi-NewYork subsidized deal will be passed as-is?
How many think the deal will be not be passed as-is?
Or something like that. I think the results of that poll will be surprising.
From an Intel only perspective:
The bad news (if the article is accurate that is) is that a netbook (Atom + high quality graphics card) can produce a 'pleasant' enough computing experience to those of us that are accustomed to the experience we get on my Lenova Thinkpad for example, which could reduce the end demand for C2D processors from current levels in the years to come.
The good news is of course the same thing! Which could significantly increase end demand for Atom processors well beyond current levels.
Hopefully they could make up in volume what they might loose in ASP should this scenario actually come to pass.
hmmmm...kind of good news, bad news story. not sure which way to lean on this story, I think only the numbers will tell us for sure.
On a side note: I can't remember what Stacy said on previous CCs about breaking out the numbers from Atom into a separate line item from rest of Core2 so that the affect on margins could be analyzed. What I can remember is whether he said 'they would' or 'they wouldn't'?
I agree with that analysis in the most part. I would only add that it is possible that just like INTC was the first to fall (Jan 2, 08 really), I think it is possible that INTC will be one of the first to begin breaking out once things turn. Because it is so widely held and considered such a bellweather for tech, I believe it will be accumulated quickly by institutions once the first signs of stability return. Other stocks are in this list also I agree, but I think INTC will be one of the stocks to move early.
OT: Arctic weather blast in Portland and Seattle
I just got back on the IHUB board after traveling down to CA. We made it down to Folsom, CA and it appears I got out of Portland just in time. A major arctic blast has hit the Northwest with snow and freezing rain (a nasty thing that). Intel facilities in Hillsboro experiencing major power and network outages yesterday and more weather is on the way.
D of U...WiMax media event in Portland
I am signed up to attend this WiMax media event in Portland, OR. I signed up as representing the 'Investor Hub', ;-> so I will try to provide the board some of my reporting insights if I can get myself down to the waterfront where the even it being held.
Here are the event details:
The event will start promptly at 10:00 AM with presentations by Ben Wolff, Clearwire chief executive officer, Sean Maloney, Intel Corporation executive vice president, chief sales and marketing officer, and Scott Richardson, Clearwire chief strategy officer.
At 10:45, you will have a chance to experience mobile WiMAX in various real-life settings and join us for hospitality at the RiverPlace Hotel. Information and additional event details will be posted at www.clear.com/portlandlaunch, so check back as we get closer to the event for more information. If you have any questions, please contact us at info@ClearPortlandLaunch.com. We look forward to seeing you on January 6th, 2009 and celebrating the launch of WiMAX in Portland with you.
I agree, a higher range has been set. Although I think we will see $13 and change again. So perhaps $13-16 thru Feb'09
Shorts have decided to take profits at the bottom of the previous range and that is pushing the price up this new range. No real changes in fundamentals are in view here IMO, just short covering and some buying that has pushed us up a notch. I see support at 12.90-13.10 now and resistence at 15.90-16. Maybe mmoy can make us a new chart when he gets a chance.
I don't expect any breakout out of this range without fundamentals changing. Intel making their Q4 number will help and some other positive macro factors will need to be established (i.e. housing prices bottoming or obamanomics gaining traction) to get INTC moving higher and I don't see those things taking hold until later in the year.
well put...lol
What I didn't get from the article was if I were to buy the two year package would I also get voice communication out of it using my existing cellphone and SIM.
re: $99 netbook...
I would love to see a WiMax version of this offer from someone, but the WiMax network needs to be rolled out in more cities to make it work. This seems like the netbook model that could really work. I think people would pick-up a subsidized netbook for $99 and signup for a two year plan if the plan included VOIP and the device had an integrated cell phone or bluetooth headset.
Portability...yes I can see that now, a move toward a more homogeneous execution environment across MAC-OS, Linux and Windows via the browser.
just a memory segment with x86 instructions...right so perhaps some sort of P-code would come down over http similar to the javascript model but maybe closer to the .Net model where the portable code is 'closer' to the x86 instructions that are actually executed. It sounds interesting.
>>native x86 execution engine for browsers...
What would be the advantage be over the ActiveX approach of just handing off the executable to the underlying OS? Why would execution of x86 binaries in the context of the browser offer any performance advantage?
>> And you get a free printer. Hilarious!
>> but I recommend more CPU...and we appreciate it!
but...but...but...mas says everything is fine.
Sold shares today at $14/share. Thought I was too high but my limit order went off late in the session. I will buy back in at prices under $12.50 if we see those levels again and I think we will.
>> lowering AMD's stake in the venture to 34%
So this begs the question: should AMD's stake go all the way to 1% of the venture (with AbuDhabi holding the other 99%), will everything be fine wrt x86 IP licensing agreement with AMD as long as they retain 50% of the voting rights? Is there no level where the financial investment in the venture becomes an issue?
Or better yet, instead of firing everyone why not just move their jobs to APAC and/or China where the wage is considerably less....oh wait that's what their doing.
Sorry to disagree, but you must be hanging out with the people that like to volunteer for stuff. The rest of the Intel folks (the ones I hang out with apparently) find this sort of thing irritating. Many employees (not all) use these programs as a loophole for getting out of the 'real work' the company needs to do. What is 'Job 1' after all from the companies perspective? Meeting your organizations objectives or giving back to the community?
Sure it's 'supposed' to be done on your own time, but in reality employees pad their calendars with meetings and volunteer planning sessions and travel to and from the site, all in the name of being of a good volunteer. This leaves the rest of us 'sucking it up' to meet the team's deliverables. Those that are comfortable with missing deadlines and slipping schedules have no problem volunteering for as many company sponsored events as they can, but some employees aren't wired that way. They can't stand to slip or not hit a milestone so they end up with their plates loaded up by management to make up for the folks that are out there volunteering for stuff.
Don't get me wrong, I'm all for giving back to the community but I say do it outside of the workplace through your church or other community organization where there is clear delineation between work and community responsibilities.
I'll get off my soapbox now. As you can tell I don't feel very strongly about this one or the other :->
Dear Prof: While I agree with the premise of your post concerning the ridiculous level of credence that these analysts opinions seem to get in the 'internet press', I would argue that the story about future layoffs at Intel actually HELPS the stock price. The street loves to here about layoffs as it allows them to adjust their models to increase the bottom line earnings without any increase (or even a decrease) in top line revenue.
I thought you were the one trying to convince us the 'sky is falling' with all those negative posts! Are you calling a bottom here?
thanks, I've been buying shares in the high 12s and selling in the mid 13s. I've made a few round trips doing this although I didn't buy today. I have a large limit order to buy at 11.90 and was thinking we might hit that today but it was not to be.