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Re: Sarmad post# 73785

Wednesday, 01/07/2009 12:02:02 PM

Wednesday, January 07, 2009 12:02:02 PM

Post# of 151693
I think your algorithm needs to start with housing prices bottoming (and seeing Case-Shiller index with two months of stability). My model suggests that consumer spending will continue lower until homeowners can reassess their balance sheets and have some confidence that it is accurate. Once they 'feel' that they have some level of liquidity in the real estate portion of their assests, I think consumers can begin to reverse the trend. I agree that you could argue that severe unemployment is the wild card here, but if we stay under 10% then I think housing is more important.

Note: nice buy today of INTC, I will be looking to add a bit here as well.
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