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coydog, good luck to ya....all our best wishes for you...
I was thinking specifically of the long term dailies...after the spike the ensuing valley should've been lower than .025 before a reversal...much like the AMEP drop (thanks for the, btw), news might send the price up, but after our collective ADD kicks in the prices continues its gradual drop towards more realistic valley. AMEP's growth is much more healthy looking than PBLS's, which might be explained by AMEP being OTCBB and PBLS a pinky.
The counter argument to this, imo, is that the accumulation before the rise yesterday indicates a more healthy and stable direction...so perhaps we are on the right track here.
Nevertheless, I am not acting on these assumptions...they are less than speculative and more just thinking out loud....
PBLS did hold its gains :) .0025 off .04 after a .008 rise is not a gains loss IMO...most stocks don't close on HOD after a spike
mac44
at the time I wrote that post, it was sideways movement (high volume all at 31/32 bid/ask). I figured it was fast accumulation prior to a run, but wanted your take on it.
Now that all is good back with iHub, I wanted to note a couple of things:
I agree with ne14trade regarding the PR (and other posters)....compared to previous PRs, this one was lacking numbers. If this was intentional, it was certainly clever. Any stock used for the acquisition could've had almost guaranteed stock price during liquidation: the MMs keep the price at bay while the acquisitee sells into the buying frenzy. After they've liquidated (if they chose to do so), the MMs allowed leftover buying pressure to inch the price up...but not too far. Why? If they knew a PR was coming that would cause a run, they would not risk letting it go at this point because they might lose their coverage if the price should shoot much farther.
This is all speculation (and under-educated speculation at that!), but it does seem to fit together with today's data. My concern is that the chart doesn't appear to support a run at this point, and this may have been a liquidation for the companies acquired, and the slight downtrend will continue. Again, speculation.
Or, this could've been another "We're Back!" type of PR. who knows...
whaddya think?
mac44 -- huge volume on relatively sideways movement...thought?
true....think they will publish another one with projections?
Question: when stocks trade like this:
0.032 10000
0.0325 10000
09:50:30
Is that likely someone buying at .0325 and the MM covering at .032? Or is this just virtual selling intended to raise volume without proving buying demand?
how many did you get in on the .0325?
lot of MM flips today...only a few buys on ask I've seen have *not* been answered by a flip sell on the bid. However, the buys in question were somewhat substantial...
mac44...what do make of the accumulation this am?
why did you decide to buy in now?
heavy volume on ask...close to 1M on .032 in last hour
So how do you see PBLS at this point? Are we still recovering from that .128 spike? Given the history of PRs, would a PR on Monday send the stock up or down?
500k shares
speaking of sweet buys someone just bought $500K of PBLS at .03...what a deal :)
the buying pressure can't be that bad...just saw 100K trade go thru
MMs trying to drop the price, I reckon
21.5% is certainly nice....in the last PR Alonzo said they have 100M tons of sand. Given the demand, I would put the price of sand at least at $10/ton. $1B @ 21.5% = $215M
given 5 years, that's $43M/year profit, or 9.3 cents/share. Just in sand...I'd say PBLS is pretty undervalued...agree? or am I missing something in my calculations?
that reduces operational costs, but that also reduces profit margins in situations like Katrina, wouldn't it? I imagine they contracted with flat rates, which they would now regret considering the ultra-high demand for their resources. Perhaps we're overestimating?
ne14atrade...calm down :) no need to pump this stock...it will pump itself soon!
in the meantime, think about this:
100,000,000 tons of sand @ ~$10/ton = $1 Billion
100,000 homes needed rebuilding (which is *exceptionally* conservative, but is reasonable if you consider how many Phoenix will contract) @ $100,000/home (again, CONSERVATIVE) = $10 Billion
If Phoenix can operate *fast* they have the opportunity to make some major acquisitions (gosh, wouldn't it be nice to see Phoenix buy AMEP? HAHA!!!)
look at OXFV go....sigh
boy I wish I'd jumped on IDWS a couple days ago....sigh
hmmm, it either means no bashers, cuz they're ugly like trolls,
or it means the same as the Fark.com trolling, which is someone who posts contraversial statements specifically to get a rise out of regular posters (i.e. "trolling for drama")
in regards to what?
I doubt it...the chart may look similar but this time a hurricane is not accompanying it, and in addition alot of people were introduced to PBLS because of Katrina...this time will not likely be the same.
Acquisitions would be nice to hear about, but I would love to hear about contracts (that is, contracts that would place the stock PPS above where it is now). it's hard for the MMs to deny worth when signed contracts are in place and published.
too bad something like that wouldn't happen with PBLS...that would certainly send the stock up!
think the reaction will be delayed? seems that the MMs weren't ready for this and are scrambling like panicking chickens....
there are probably alot of day flippers right now, since there was a cycle for the past week at least. In addition, the MMs seem to know things before they happen (like news on the way), and when the news comes they short sell to all the buyers. That doesn't seem to have happened here, because it took us all by surprise, so the MMs might be keeping the price down so that they don't lose their positions in a rapid buying spree.
thoughts?
haha, yep! that's why I gave you kudos in a previous post....you were right on the money....btw, I also took your advice and positioned that money in PBLS. when this ride is over I owe you a drink and a cigar :)
I spent some time on the AMEP reading the posts, and now that I pay alot more attention to the charts so many of those posts don't make sense. I'm hoping that the PBLS ride will give me some more capital to buy in a little at the AMEP valley when it comes.
probably a typo... .069 and .079 is easily mis-typed
there are so many longs on this stock I can't imagine we'll stay within .03s for even another half hour
daily chart suggests this is a bid/ask drop....the drop doesn't seem to be supported by volume except at the start of the day. I'm not convinced this is a solid downward move. I'm with ya ne14....not worried at all about this one.
AMEP: that's no surprise...mac44 called this and chart analysis confirms it. I put a plastic cover over the trigger yesterday, and I'm glad I did :) Bear in mind, however, that AMEP will be a great buy around .05....in a week or two they will begin drilling, and they will move into the black by year's end with a minimum of $8 million/year....chart analysis of AMEP, btw, suggests to me that the longterm bullish trend will continue.
kudos mac44
I don't think so....IGTN has been announcing the same crap for months and months about SEC filing. In addition, their revenue base is small....if they do recover from this (which I hope they do since I own shares), it will be small growth over years to get back where they started.
PBLS doesn't have the history of BS that IGTN does, and they have a ridiculously larger revenue base going into 2006. I'm not worried about a reverse split on PBLS AT ALL. It wouldn't make sense for Phoenix to make that kind of move at this juncture...not an ounce of sense.
If anything, given their revenue in the coming year, we might see a regular split in a couple years.
jmho
haha, I mentioned that on the other PBLS board....so true, man! (oh yeah, I own IGTN...luckily I didn't put any real money in)
interesting downward move...I noticed this does have a 10-15% daily cycle, but I'm curious about a downward move this soon....rumors? MM shake before an upward move?
interesting moving this morning....nothing to worry about IMHO. At least they're not reverse-splitting like IGTN did (bye bye money!!)
PBLS: PR's the key....I hope it either comes tomorrow morning or next Tuesday (I'll be out of town during those days)