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Lord Have Mercy!
Shows how dangerous estimates and guesses are from the uninformed (me).
Awesome post as always Ardly.
I wonder how much a “smart” recoil kit goes for? By smart, I mean one that you can program for number of rounds, periodic unexpected jams, maybe misfire, perhaps other mechanical stuff. Gotta be $500 or more.
Just for fun......120,000 x $500 = $60,000,000.......hhhhhmmmmmm
Are recoil kits part of big Microsoft contract?
If there is some big legit real opportunity any bank would be happy to loan them the money at 5 or 6%. Frrris just doesn’t like debt.
With the price so far below $6, gonna be fun for Roth and Maxim to close this on Monday.
So, by the end of Monday 28% of the company will be in several new hands. Who are those shareholders? And any guesses on how many? Will it be 5 institutions/funds or 10 or 20? Will any have over 5%? Does/did Ferris have to bless/approve who they are?
Guessing game. Since the start of the year there have been strong hints about a BIG fed government/military contract:
1. Hiring for CNC second shift.
2. Gomes interview where Ferris first used word “subcontractor”
3. Q4 cc Q&A where Ferris mentioned confidentiality and subcontractor
4. Q4 cc where Ferris did not want to talk much about the military opportunity that he had mentioned many times in last 18months.
5. Tuesday night announcement of $18mil raise.
6. Ferris was proud of never diluting shareholders and spoke of that proudly during Gomes interview.
7. The way the stock has been trading of late. Lots of strength and interest.
My question is this.....Let’s assume for the sake of simplicity that this is a multi year contract with revenue starting to come to VirTra in Q3 this year, What sort of contract SIZE do you guys consider to be BIG and worthy of a 18mil cap raise and 39% dilution?
$20mil over 2years?
$50mil over 3 years?
$100mil over 5 years?
What if it is $7mil over 2 years?
I’m just trying to gage expectations.
Not sure why this one isn’t keeping up but I keep buying about 5000 shares each day. Today I bought 11000.
Long and strong!
A bumpier ride up than I expected, will buy more tomorrow.
Back to low volume today, only 5mil shares traded.
I agree with you but now I don’t have many votes!
It bugs me that he is so afraid of debt when interest rates are this low. Just silly.
That said, I bought a few shares back this morning.
Good stuff!
Guesses? What will they do with the money?
Do you think they know what they will do with it?
Which do you like best:
Today
7.75mil shares
46.5mil market cap
40mil enterprise value
6.5mil cash
A week from now
10.75mil shares
64.5mil market cap
40mil enterprise value
24.5mil cash
Me....All depends how CEO uses the cash
.........A lesser factor is who will own the 3mil shares
The timing is also interesting.
Why not wait until June or September and do this at $8 or $10 instead?
Does this mean Q1 and Q2 will not be that good?
Numberswise the offering is ok.
Enterprise Value after this offering will be about $41mil, still too low. So I think the stock will move up steadily from the new $6 floor. Perhaps it reaches $10 by end of the year. Just a guess.
There will be a race to file the first lawsuit today.
Would be fascinating to know who likely shorted 3mil shares yesterday.
They did so with inside info knowing the timing and price and size of this offering.
That is why I think the stock was pumped up....in order for those in the know to make a zero risk short at 9 or 10.
At least we now know why yesterday likely happened.
For the company a possible unforced error. But if they do make a smart large acquisition with it then it is ok. If they sit on the money then stupid.
In my opinion this is another example of the CEO taking poor advice.
All interesting questions. Every person has his/her own perspective.
I think long term Vtsi owners who paid attention are now smarter. Those smarts will pay off big over the next year with this stock and perhaps with others.
For me, yes I sold a lot today but still own a decent amount.
I also know that if it drifts down below 6 I will buy much of it back.
It is going to spike up hard multiple times this year.
Patience. The next year will make you a lot of money.
He is worse than worthless.
I didn’t sell because of valuation. Even at $10, the valuation is not out of line.
I sold because it went up so fast and it reeks of pump and dump.
But the stock market is different these days and Teeroy May very well be correct that this is just the start.
VirTra has a great story, a great product, and the foundation from which to grow.
If it stays up here and the volume holds for a few days I sure hope Ferris is smart enough to use the ATM/shelf and raise $30 or $40mil for the company. Then use it to buy some growth.
I’m still a shareholder, but no longer a significant one. Kept a few shares to follow along.
I wish it had gone up slower and more methodical since easier to hold for me but today is good too.
Insanely fun!
Cool! There are only 5 of us left in the stock!
There was one other interesting comment made by Bob during the cc. He implied they got some sort of military or fed gov order but due to confidentiality requirements they can not pr it or talk about it. That was also during the Q&A.
My guess for Q1 is $6mil and 17cents.
And today is March 29 so Bob already knows the Q1 numbers. He did not talk lumpiness or try to stomp down expectations.
I just listened to the cc replay.
In answer to a question about orders during the Q&A Bob said VirTra had a TREMENDOUS PIPELINE. Said it was STRONG.
How ya’ll think Q1 is gonna look relative to last years $3mil?
Stock is gonna rocket .
Anyone catch the cc? I missed it.
The after hours volume is BIG and significant.
The buying makes sense. The selling is not smart.
7s or 8s this week.......easy.
Finally relax-time with VTSI.
Q1 report in 6 weeks will light it on fire.
Took ballls to go margin. Congrats! I think it will work out for you. Well done.
Just gettin started.
I want to grab each of the new directors by the shoulders and start shaking them while screaming at them...,,”Would you freakin idiots buy some shares.”
I personally think both of them are absolute pieces of garbage (as directors) for not buying shares.
Kudos to BOD member Jeffrey Brown. He exercised options for 2500 shares and kept them all. He didn’t sell any to cover the tax hit!
Compare that what Burlend usually does.
I would guess the stock starts trending up next week in anticipation of the Q1 report in mid May.
Q4 report is mostly known by all at this point based on CEO comments during Q3 cc and in late January Gomes interview.
Remarkable how so many long time VTSI shareholders have sold. I know they have. I bought their shares!
I’ve been having fun trying to learn about candlestick charts. I often read them wrong, however, there is no mistaking today’s candlestick. It is a massively bullish engulfing candlestick! Over the next several days RFP should go up BIG!
And more today!
Semi-serious post....I always wonder why tiny microcaps like VTSI let so many shares fall into so few hands. At the extreme I think it is better for 100% of the shares to be in 1000 hands rather than 10 hands.
With VirTra, we all know the CEO has hand-picked the BOD. With what is happening right now with VTSI stock, his ability to maintain BOD status quo is in serious jeopardy......in my opinion. And that too is a good thing and reason to buy.
Crazy fun day. The Seller is chasing my Bid! Sort of like a mouse and cheese on a string.
Great day to be buying!
Q4 report Monday pm.
Q1 report May 13-ish.
Tick tock
I’m surprised this hasn’t yet headed back up today. It is worth a ton more than current price.