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My oh my, Anavex listed as the top performer, by far, in the entire NASDAQ exchange. A YTD return of 850+%. A couple stocks in the 300-800% range, and the rest of the top 10 performers below 300% return. I don't believe that impressive run up was all due to meritless pumping. I think investors sense that the stock is the real deal and can beat the odds.
I clicked on that broken link and all I got was the message "file deleted from server"
Bottom line, how likely is it that Anavex Plus will get FDA approval for Alzheimers? I'm gonna say 70%.
Wolf Wayne posted this back in August - "preliminary brain scans show Anavex could be four times more effective than current standard of care medication, and that Anavex 2-73 saw 10 out of 12 patients improve four times as much at one month on their EEG reading than the current standard of care medication."
Have you guys seen any hard data showing brain scans of people in the Anavex trial are 4X better than donezepil? Wolf Wayne gleaned that from what a TV reporter said on a piece featuring Anavex from last summer.
Why? Because it is so early in clinical trials. An efficacy study of the drugs performance in humans is a year off from beginning. Who knows how long til preliminary results from that will be reported. They don't speculate as much as us retail investors.
You guys all assume what happened back in November will play out exactly the same way again. The hedge funds aren't stupid. If they still have power to short this back down (to whatever extent), I doubt they're gonna do it the exact the same way they did it before. They want to be unpredictable. They might let this run up to 20, who knows. Or, they might not have the power to short it down temporarily more than a couple bucks. Trying to guess what they're gonna do and when they're gonna do it is a fools errand imho. Better to just remain long and not trade this if you want to make maximum bank.
I disagree. Within 4-5 months, a patent will be granted for Anavex Plus. This will happen long before FDA approval.
Jimmy posted, "You understand that AVXL has been funded in the most part by the scientists themselves? They take no pay only expenses."The Scientific Advisory Board has not salary, true, but what do you mean AVXL has been funded by the scientists themselves? PLease elaborate
Actually, the $350 million is in addition to the $650 million already approved for next year. So today $1 billion has been appropriated next year for Alzheimers research
I don't care about comparing mechanisms of action. All I care about is results. How the drugs get to those results isn't the focus of my question.
2-73 vs the also rans. How does 2-73's Phase 2a results compare to other drugs' early stage results? There have been 100+ Alzheimers drugs that have failed in trials at some point. I wonder what the Phase 2a results were for those drugs? Were their preclinical and early clinical results as promising as 2-73's at this early stage? If they were, well that puts a damper on our ultimate expecatations for 2-73. I'd also like to know Aricept's Phase 2a results and compare those to 2-73's. Granted I know Anavex's trial design is atypical so I don't even know if it is possible to compare its results thus far with the other drugs that have come before. If comparing clinical results are like apples to oranges, what about preclinical results? At least that's something. Surprised no one has tackled this project thus far or even inquired.
70% of 2-73 trial participants experienced improved quality of life. Anavex CEO Missling said this last week on Capitol Hill. What did he base that percentage on? Which test, which data, at which time frame (5 weeks, 12 weeks)? Just wondering. Improving the "real world" quality of life of someone with Alzheimers is the highest bar to achieve and so far no drug has come close to doing that, that I know of. Donezepil doesn't even maintain their quality of life, let alone improve it. I have heard FDA is most interested in whether an AD drug actually effects a patient's quality of life, functioning, and activity level moreso than how a drug effects a patient's score on a cognitive test. Just b/c an Alzheimers patient does well on a memory test in the clinic (MMSE, cogstat) or has improved ERP's, doesn't mean they're able to function better at home day in day out. So, assuming Missling didn't just pull that 70% out of his #$%$, where'd he get it from? The ADSC-ADL scores? That would be a good question for IR.
But how do you put your wits to good use when the stock is highly manipulated? Doesn't matter how much TA you do or researching the fundamentals, unless the hedge funds tip you off what they have planned, you can't predict things.
It can take up to 6 months for approval from time of our last submission. A patent for Anavex Plus' composition would be much better than a patent for just method of use, b/c method use is much harder to enforce.
naw, 6 months
How reliable are mouse preclinical studies? Any data on that? Such as, are they 50% predictive of how a drug will perform in humans, or some other percentage? I suppose the relevance of mouse data to humans depends on the disease on the organ system involved. I've read mouse neurons act same as human neurons
Thanks! Dr. Fisher said 3-71 is "exquisitively potent" huh? Someone posted on the mb months ago that it is 30X more potent than 2-73. Don't know if that was accurate though. I know it is much smaller molecule than 2-73. Maybe smaller = better efficacy? Smaller molecules are easier and cheaper for drug companies to manufacture. Probably less side effects too.
That's news. I though SAB members were paid by Anavex. But it looks like that is not the case.
Dude, hedge funds have been running a scheme for decades, lately with much increasing frequency. They naked short promising small caps, particularly biotechs. They coordinate their shorting with their paid bashing bloggers and social media trolls. They use high frequency trading to sink the pps quick. It is all illebgal of course but so far the SEC turns a blind eye. When news come out on the stock, whether it be good or bad, their minions trash the news and then they short to keep the news from lifting the pps much. AVXL investors should be reporting this activity to the SEC.
Anavex 3-71 improves synapse function which would be significant given the research findings released last week at a university in New South Wales, Australia. Here is the info about the findings that degradation of the synapse is key to Alzheimer's Disease. I think this is significant especially if the preclinical data is confirmed clinically. Someone posted months ago the 3-71 is 30X more potent than 2-73 and a smaller molecule than 2-73. http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/303280.php
There will be more needed for approval than just Phase 2a, Part b results. Either a Phase 3 or a Phase 2b trial.
I don't think Neuronetrix is publicly traded
But do we need to see improvement? Is the bar set that high? Or do we just need to see halting of the progression of the disease? Or do we just need to see that the drug is slowing the rate of regression? What constitutes success?
I take it you use ema's, not sma's? If looking at the 10 ema to decide when to sell, what time frame do you use and what frequency? I don't know which time frames and frequencies to use for the different ema's
Countering the hedge funds. I believe hedge funds are behind the manipulation of this stock. They naked short w/HFT and give bogus material for their minions to spread online. So, is AVXL simply at their mercy until FDA approval a couple years from now? What is in it for the hedge funds keeping AVXL in the basement indefintely?
How can the hedge funds be defeated? My amateur thoughts - Good news that is strong (patents, trial results, FDA breakthrough/fast track/approval, partnership, buyout, good press, smart PR) and mutual funds and institutional funds investing big in the stock which will keep a lid on the excessive trading and volatility. People seeing through the bashers BS. I think their fear mongering will grow tiresome and old as time goes on, kinda like the boy who cried wolf or chicken little. Hedge funds themselves might want to stop shorting AVXL and trading it and instead invest in it and pump it back up, for how long, who knows. Would they dare short it again after it is up big? I'd like to see them move on from AVXL but I don't know that that is their M.O.
200 ma when you're looking what time frame, 1 yr or 6 mos or 1 mo? With heavily manipulated stocks like this, I'm not sure how reliable TA is. They are so unpredictable.
I never heard any of the "gurus" on here that have been investing for years say boo about a naked shorting scheme and to lookout for it during the months leading up to the crash. Nothing. Nobody said, "Warning, hedge funds like to naked short and sink the stock when it is topping out. Warning." Nothing along those lines. With just how pervasive this scheme and how they do it to 100 or more small caps/year, you'd a thunk someone in here would have brought up avxl as ripe for a target of the hedge fund's scheme.
Umm yeah dude, where were you before the freefall to warn us newbie investors of this pervasive scheme that has infected the biotech sector, and other small caps to a lesser extent? NOBODY talked about this scheme in the months leading up to the crash. Nobody. You're tellling me all the posters were clueless about this pervasive ruse? That it wasn't on their radar?? How could y'all not have known? If you did know, why was there not even a peep about it in all those months? Sure, now you chime in like you've known about their game all along for years. But where were you when it mattered? As pervasive as the scheme is, word should have been spread far and wide years ago that small cap biotech is toxic and that it is a no go zone till SEC isn't so corrupt.
Bingo, who is that quote from please?
I think this patent is for 2-73's mode of action in treating cancer (melanoma). I do not think the patent is for the compound itself and I do not think the patent is intended for the treatment of Alzheimer's.
I "think" Anavex patent application sent to examiner back on Nov 3 was probably for Anavexx-Plus for the treatment of Alz. At least that's what I'm hoping it is for. I hope it for the compound itself and not just mode of action.
What our our chances that 2-73 gets FDA approval ultimately? Just ball park estimate in you opinion? Is it a "for sure" bet? I know we have to prove that we are just a smidge better than donezepil. Wish I could find the clinical trial results for donezepil so I know what the benchmarks are we are aiming for. Which markers will the FDA be most interested in (mmse, adl, cog stat, ERP's)? Axon CEO on YouTube said their trial is using the ADL marker as the endpoint they want to measure success by, he never mentioned mmse or cog stat or ERP's. Does FDA care about ERP's? Edny Inui was dismissive of them saying they aren't formally used/accepted as diagnostic criteria for cognitive impairment. I like ERP's b/c they are objective, not subjective measures. But will FDA be dismissive of them and just want mmse data? Even if 2-73 isn't FDA approved, is that it for Anavex? Game over? They do have other drugs and 2-73 is in trials to treat other diseases such as epilepsy and parkinson's. Just wondering how long we will be in the doldrums for. What is the endgame of these market manipulators? Liquidating Anavex after sucking the life out of it? Keeping our PPS down endlessly until we have successful Phase III and get FDA approval? Wondering how long I'll have to wait to find out how this is going to play out and how many ulcers I'll acquire during that time. Won't they move on at some point, cover their shorts and move on? Ugh, what a nightmare. Didn't see this coming at all. Studied the science, the management, the financing, the overall market, world events, but didn't factor in this over the top manipulation as something that could spell disaster. Didn't even know it existed like this. I wonder, "Why does anyone even bother investing in small caps, especially biotechs, if they can be destroyed so easily by vultures?" Surely there has to be some reputable investing writers that can do a story on Anavex. Someone like Adam F, but the good version? I'd like to approach them
I suggest contacting Matt Taibbi, the writer at Rolling Stone that does the political articles and writes extensively about BS that goes on on Wall Street, and Greg Palast, investigative journalist that would love to do a story on the Anavex story
I agree 100%. It isn't what investing is supposed to be about. You invest b/c you believe in a company and want to help it grow. I didn't even know this BS existed before the BS of the last week. Calling my congressmen. Someone said we are the only country that allows it. Is that right? And then peeople have the gall to complain that there is too much regulation. Please, the complete opposite is true. For capitalism to work, it has to be highly regulated, otherwise it is like a football game with no rules or referees.
How come you guys aren't notifying the FBI about this criminal attack on AVXL, which includes us as owners? Aren't they guilty of "fomenting" by trashing AVXL with BS? In the Wolf of Wall Street movie someone said the SEC doesn't pursue criminal investigations, that is the FBI. It was the FBI that went after Jordan (Leo DiCaprio's character) and took him down. I don't have much faith in the SEC. Our stock market is like the wild west, anything goes, or a football game with no rules and no referees.
I don't care if the bastards bring the PPS down to $5, I'll never sell b/c of their actions. I believe in Anavex, their pipeline, and their trial results. That will prevail at some point and the share price will reflect over time.
Good lord ffrol, you're like pumpers. PLacing sky high expectations for this NON OPTIMIZED drug that was given for 12 days, then not given for 12 days (during which time any gains may have been lost entirely and the disease progressed), and then added back for 12 days (which may have been like starting from scratch with the drug). They were only a non optimized drug for 24 non consequetive days and it is like you're expecting them to have made major leaps and bounds in that short timespan. Be realistic man. It is not fair to place those kind of expectations upon an early, 12 day trial. You forget there was a washout. Geesh. No drug would make it make to market if it had to meet your rigid standards right out the gate.
The P300 ERP's are for me what impressed me the most b/c I spent a lot of time researching that biomarker. Massive improvement and that bodes well for the subjective measures to improve more with time on an optimized dose everyday. I think I read somewhere that it takes longer for the mmse and cogstat scores to catch up to the erp's improvements (ie erp's show improvement first and then later the other scores). Of course, just halting decline is important too especially if the halt is permanent
The after hours chart doesn't show that much buying compared to other days' after hours buying. Are you privy to after hours trading info that doesn't appear on a chart? If so, could you direct me to that source
Glad others are posting on this topic b/c it needs to be said. It is truth. I like the drug, I like Avanex. I don't like liars trashing the stock, also don't like the pumpers that place unrealistic expecations on it at early stages of clinical trials. I am long for this stock and have patience.
I trust Missling. He has said repeatedly that he is seeking partnership. I think he means what he says. I don't think he wants to sell and if investors in his company are smart they wouldn't want to sell out to BP either. I take him at his word. Maybe he is a crook and his word means nothing, but I am betting that he is honorable.
I am confident 2-73 is safe. Preclinical, Phase I, the July interim results, and the abstract from yesterday give good reason to believe it is safe. But people want the blockbuster news that 2-73 performs miracles at this early stage, which I believe just isn't fair to Avanex and the ongoing trial.