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I think someone did say that it had to be reported immediately, that was the misinformation I was referencing -- not your post.
Yeah, retail gets hit hard every which way. Dark pools make up something like 25% of all trading volume. If a fund like Park West wanted to sell it probably wouldn't do it on the open market, too much volatility for a stock that is primarily held in retail hands.
Good post. I agree with most of what you wrote. I'm not sure the N number is being saved for a peer reviewed article. It doesn't make sense to share data but not report the population size.
It's mere speculation at this point. Nobody knows anything.
Valid point.
Your charts don't account for ATS. FINRA publishes Tier 1 NMS on a two week delayed basis.
I don't believe Park West sold. Just saying that it is possible they did and you would have no idea looking at your brokerage's daily volume.
Absolutely I sold. Picked up them back up when they went on sale again for 30% off. I like sales.
And nobody is talking about or cares about the last report. The question posed this morning is whether Park West still owns those shares. If it sold last week, then the last report is meaningless.
There was misinformation posted here that if Park West had sold recently it has to be reported immediately. This isn't true. Nobody other than the insiders at PW know if they are still holding. Retail investors find out when the next report comes out.
No, my post is entirely fact-based. Firms with assets over $100M are not required to report sales or purchases (unless there's issues of change of control, 5% ownership, etc) except on a quarterly basis through 13F forms.
Otherwise we'd all know what Warren Buffett was buying and selling on a weekly or monthly basis. There's a reason it's a big deal when he buys or sells something and it makes the news once every three months.
"Selling out would require an immediate filing. "
Oh really? The SEC must have changed the rules for 13-F and not notified Park West then.
Good to know.
I don't think they sold any shares but it is possible and we won't know until they're required to disclose at the end of the quarter.
Of course committed investors don't sell. And in high risk biotech, they often go down with the sinking ship because of it. It all depends on how the drug performs. From a trading perspective though, as a swing trade, AVXL has been a dog of a stock the last few years.
What false info about the offering? The facts are the facts? There is a shelf offering that if executed right now would fully dilute this stock. That should scare most investors. There are preferred shares that can be used to get around the authorized share limit. That should scare investors.
Scared investors sell, and selling causes the stock price to drop.
Objectively speaking, the stock price is dropping because the offering news is perceived as worse than the gut bacteria news is good.
Currently the price is well below the near-term high.
Until we get news, there's no reason to buy. Or sell for that matter.
Needless to say, it seems that investors are spooked about the shelf offering.
Time will tell if Missling really cares about investors or is just looking to line his pickets.
The trial extensions are a positive sign indeed.
But by the same flip of the coin, desperate people will do just about anything regardless of whether its rational. Continuing with a trial has an opportunity cost of some time and a bit of personal inconvenience. That's it. I wonder how many of these people would continue with the extension if they had to pay for the drug out of pocket? Hmmm...
Also, why all the people dropping out of the trials? The "N" total has steadily decreased which is to be expected to a small degree but now Dr. Missling isn't even providing that information beyond 148 weeks. What's that all about? Is it possible the drug isn't working all that well after a certain point? Of course that's a real possibility and the fact that Dr. Missling won't give updated numbers is a big reason to at least consider all possible outcomes.
Exactly. If the results are good he won't need it. Nothing changes. More shares issued but he has money in the bank. The loss is just the difference between where he did sell those shares and where he could've sold.
On the other hand, the results are bad and he doesn't have insurance money and all of a sudden he's out of a job because AVXL has no money and nobody will fund future pipeline trials.
Seems like a no-brainer decision. If he gets to milk the cow a little longer and live off a fat salary, all the better but I don't think that is Missing;s primary motivation. Ideally he wants to cash in his warrants.
I like the drug, not the CEO who is in charge of it. The FDA doesn't so much care who the CEO is. Either the drug works or it doesn't. So far, all indications are that it does. Now it's time to test and see if it works under a properly conducted trial designed for more than just safety.
If the drug does work this stock shoots back to $15. If it doesn't, it goes to 0.
Really? Then explain this...
https://www.maximgrp.com/uncategorized/maxim-group-llc-acted-as-sole-placement-agent-for-avanex-life-sciences-corp-s-10-million-convertible-note-offering/
Anavex has most certainly worked with Maxim in the past. My point isn't even so much Maxim specifically, there are dozens of firms that are interchangeable.
Certainly possible, although shorting becomes more difficult and more risky the lower the stock price.
Shorting Anavex in 2015/2016 when it was $7+ and years away from any meaningful data or news is one thing; shorting it in 2019 at $3 when it's a just months away from at least one data reveal (Rett) is another.
I still posit the most likely explanation is that Missling spooked a lot of investors who were sitting on a nice profit, and they decided to take the money and run rather than -hope- that dilution will be at favorable terms post-data reveal.
The market hates uncertainty and AVXL is a stock that is surrounded by uncertainty. Those who are willing to wade through it will either look like geniuses or look like fools when all is said and done. The upside here is enormous but so is the risk of losing 100% overnight. Many investors, myself included, would prefer to diminish that risk somewhat by either flipping shares and riding a free core position, or accepting that there is still significant upside even getting in post-P3 data announcement -- assuming that Missling doesn't sell the company outright in which case the price will spike to the purchase price immediately.
I know what high frequency trading is. Spent most of my career in the industry. It's a rigged game and retail isn't playing with a full deck.
That being spoken, the reason for the AVXL sell-off isn't so much HFT as it is people taking profits and minimizing risk. It's a buy the rumor sell the news situation. Buy into the conference, sell after it especially if the gut data was meh, which it was, in terms of overall net effect on getting people excited that AVXL will reverse brain disease.
The other news event that is crashing the price is the pending dilution. We know it will happen, but we don't know when. Investors hate uncertainty. That is a fact and AVXL has too many variables as it is -- the idea of adding a $250M dilution variable is another reason many will sell.
Investors are selling the stock because AVXL just as isn't as desirable as it was a month ago, before the dilution announcement and when nobody knew what the conference presentation would bring. That's the reason for the sell-off, not high frequency trading.
Yup. Sure was.
There is another stock that shall remain nameless that did a deal with Maxim (who AVXL has ties to) and its stock is down 20% today and counting -- essentially same situation that AVXL is getting into with its own offering. The stock price is taking a beating now, just wait until the dilution actually happens. It'll be a bloodbath. Good opportunity for longs, I suppose, but a lot of paper equity will bleed out.
AVXL doesn't need the money right now. It only takes two weeks to file and register a shelf. Dr. Missling could have waited until there was an urgent need for the money. He chose not to and the stock is taking a beating because of it.
I think the odds are decent that this money is insurance against bad trial data. Strike while the iron is hot sort of thing. Use that money to advance other pipeline drugs, because if bad A273 data comes out and Anavex is short on its runway, it'll never find 250M again outside of toxic financing. Missing has an opportunity to secure money while people still believe in AVXL -- he's actually smart to take advantage of it, but I don't know that it's a reason to celebrate. Even with good trial data the shelf overhanging will put the brake on any massive spike.
I've sold several hundred share lots over the last three years. I haven't counted the total number but I'd guess it amounts to tens of thousands of shares. Are those cross-trades too? Of course not.
YOUR information is deceptive.
Wash sales, cross-trades, whatever gets you through the night but you're stating opinion as fact. Posting a screenshot of the trades and speculating on what they mean doesn't mean that you are correct in your assumption. The only ones who know the truth are the MMs.
If MIssling doesn't care about the appearance of the timing, then why do it after hours before a holiday? Do you think that was a coincidence? I don't.
If he doesn't care about the appearance of the shelf, why not mention the shelf at the shareholder meeting just a few weeks ago? It's not like he woke up one day and said, "Maybe I should raise $250M for a rainy day." He knew the shelf was coming, he had been planning this for a lot longer than any of us were aware, and it took everyone by surprise when it was spotted.
How does the shelf provide strategic leverage? And how can you say that if the trials come up negative the shelf doesn't matter? I never said all the trials I said the Rett trial.
if the Rett trial flops people will make assumptions, fair or not, about the odds for Alzheimers or Parkinson's success. The share price will drop on a Rett failure. You would agree with that much, right? If so, and knowing that a Rett failure will make it harder to raise money later, Missling may be hedging his aggressiveness.
It's not necessarily the wrong decision, but I think partnering would have achieved the same result (money for dilution) with the added benefit of establishing more credibility that would stave off a lot of the short bashing and attacks.
I don't like the CEO. I like the drug's potential.
I dont trust Mark Zuckerberg, either, but I'll invest in Facebook because it's a money making machine.
The drug doesn't care whether Dr. Missling or Jonas Salk is the CEO. It either works or it doesn't. If it works the stock is currently undervalued, if it doesn't work the stock is overvalued.
Where Missling factors in is his ability to maximize the value of the stock and act in the best interest of the shareholders. I don't think he's doing a very good job of either but you know what they say about opinions...
Besides, I won't be invested in this long enough to see whether I'm right or wrong about my assessment of Missling's ability to maximize profits. If AVXL has solid P3 data and gets approved, the stock price should jump high enough that day or week to where many investors will feel the wait is over, the price target has been met, and it's time to cash in the chips and find another table with another dealer.
I agree that dilution is likely due to the cross-trading, and it has probably started.
It only takes a week or two max to register a shelf. So there was no reason for Dr. Missing to try and steal it through after hours before a holiday weekend if he didn't plan on selling shares immediately. He could have just as soon waited a few weeks or months, especially since cash isn't an immediate concern right now if we're to believe that Anavex has 18 months of runway.
Seems more and more likely that Missling wants a lot of money and wants it now. If that's the case, it may not bode well -- one reason would be that the Rett trial results aren't as good as expected and he wants to make as much of a cash grab as possible.
That would also explain the rush to get those preferred shares approved. If he knows he's going to be diluting for cheap, and getting close to that 100M authorized limit, it's a lot easier to seek shareholder approval for blank-check preferred shares than it is to increase the authorized share limit.
The blank check part is what scared me a while back. Very suspect on his part...I don't trust his motives one bit.
Pros:
1. So far there's no clear winner in the fight to cure Alzheimer's. This means there is a wide-open market.
2. Plaque theory seems to be dying out so the door is open for new methods of action like Sigma-1.
3. Anavex has sufficient cash
4. Anavex is primarily retail-held, which offers the possibility for a lot of growth if/when funds decide the want to buy our shares.
5. Anavex may be a platform drug that targets more than one disease = more $$$
6. The price is relatively cheap given the potential ROI if this pans out, and there are only 100M max shares authorized for now.
7. The wait is almost over. In 2015, it seemed like forever as it was still in P1/P2. Now we're starting P3 but the opportunity to buy at 2015 prices still exists. Safer investment now than it was then because we have more info.
Cons:
1. History of failure for all drugs in this space and Sigma-1 is an untested theory for now.
2. Lots of competition, from small and large companies.
3. Not a lot of institutional shares are held -- lower locked up float means the price is more prone to volatility
4. Lack of transparency from the CEO about why the need for the $250M offering, and why the need for the preferred shares -- leading investors to speculate from the worst case to best case scenario.
5. $250M shelf overhanging.
6. At one point Anavex was on the hit list of people like Feuerstein, Sykes, Michaud, etc, and there's a chance they encourage their followers to short the stock again if it goes back up without definitive data.
7. No partnership at the moment puts all the risk on the company and its shareholders.
I hope you're right. Maybe you are. Maybe you aren't.
Though it's not fair to say holding and accumulating when you also sell shares at the top and buy them back cheaper. That's the smart thing to do, I think everyone should, but it's also creating conditions that are leading to the decline in share price when longs aren't willing to hold their shares through and through.
What do you mean there was no reason? Of course there is a reason.
$250M dilution is not peanuts. The fact nobody knows at what price or for how much makes this a risky hold in the short-term. Investors don't like unknowns.
It's unknown whether A273 will be approved.
It's unknown how much dilution there will be or at what price.
It's unknown when the peer review validation will be released, and it's unknown when the Rett data will be released.
It's unknown what the "n" number is post-148 weeks.
It's unknown why Dr. Missling needs the $250M if there's enough runway for 18 months.
It's unknown whether the preferred shares are going to be used as a defensive precaution or as a way to get past the A/S limit.
I could keep going...
This message board is unusual in that it doesn't fully capture the overall market sentiment for Anavex. I suspect most message boards are like that. And that's fine, there's nothing wrong with loving a stock or its potential. In terms of risk/reward Anavex is as compelling as any other company I know about. But the takedown wasn't fabricated -- maybe shorts are pouring gasoline on a fire-- but it was Dr. Missling who initially lit the match and threw it into a pile of leaves when he announced the offering without any follow-up details.
Markets crave stability. Anavex has too many unknowns. So people bought the AAIC rumor and are now selling the news.
And if it drops to $1.90???
Opinion stated as fact.
Nobody has any clue what the stock price is going to do. If the data for Rett is good, yah, $4 is likely. If the data is bad, Anavex may never see $4 again.
It took funds buying hundreds of thousands of shares to get the stock to just a pip above $4. Think about that. Anavex wouldn't be anywhere near $4 right now if not for the Russell addition.
Options, wash sales, its always something to do with manipulation and never the fact that maybe people just don't want to own Anavex relative to what else is out there.
Sorry, but the selling isn't contrived -- it's a reaction to a news driven event, in this case the news being that a) Missling is going to dilute at some point to the tune of $250M but we don't know when or how much. Investors don't generally like so many unknown variables, and b) the gut bacterial data was underwhelming. Maybe not from a scientific perspective, the neurological community may be talking about it at the post-conference cocktail party, but what's the famous saying....
"Buy the rumor, sell the news." So that's what is happening now. If you're going to sell, or short, now is the safest time because the window to cover or buy back in is the largest. You wouldn't want to take a chance if there's been silence for a month because the odds are any day now something will come out in a PR.
It's not always wash sales or fake walls or manipulation. Maybe investors and traders just don't want to own Anavex right now because there are better near-term opportunities to invest with lower risk and more immediate upside.
If anything was contrived or an illusion, it was the run from $2.80 - $4+ because Funds had to buy when Anavex was added to the Russell index.
Maybe, but if what you say is true why not just be transparent? Come out and say the preferred shares are to prevent a hostile takeover and won’t be used to bypass the share limit. Why not say that money is fine now but we will plan for the future by issuing a shelf.
No way to sugarcoat it, secretly slipping a shelf registration for dilution at any amount let alone almost double the market cap during after hours before a holiday reeks of shady intentions under most circumstances. That’s all I’m saying. Maybe Missling is going about this correctly but his lack of transparency is concerning. And where does this leave LPC? Is the offering going to push them to the side? If so, why? I thought the money wasn’t toxic.
Missling has an MBA from a top school, and some Wall Street experience, which is both good and bad. Rule number one on Wall Street is to look out for yourself and your friends. And to live to see another day. Just as likely he’s doing that as he is looking out for our best interests. Wall Street isn’t known for altruism. If Rett trial doesn’t perform well the runway will dry up and AVXL folds. I think it’s just as likely he’s hedging his aggressive bets as he’s gearing up for a big move. If the data is so good he won’t need offering money, he will have plenty of partnership offers to play against each other. On the other hand...
Too early to tell how it plays out. Hope for the best but plan for the worst. That’s what I’m dojng and I think that’s what Missling is doing too. We shall see. Getting late here in CA. Have a great weekend! Maybe next week we escape the 2s.
It has the same effect. Lowers inflammation. The good news is avxl may be onto something. Bad news is that there may be serious competition.
Will be fun to see how it all unfolds. My bet is still on avxl but it’s in spite of our ceo not because of him.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6018466/
Yes, from a 5 year perspective AVXL has performed alright but it should considering its advanced through the trials. Drugs very rarely fail a P1 trial. P2 and P3 is the graveyard where promising drugs go to die.
I too am willing to gamble on the science. I certainly wouldn't buy a used car from Dr. Missling though. He's as untrustworthy as they come.
And I am pretty certain that those preferreds everyone wanted will be used to create additional dilution, not to prevent a hostile takeover. Anavex is so cheap it wouldn't take much for someone to come in and buy the majority of the shares -- I think most people (and most funds) would sell for the right price (i.e. $15 or so).
Missling has finessed the system in grand style? Give me a break. During his watch over the last three years when the stock market has been literally on the biggest bull run in history, AVXL has been a sinking ship. Grand style?
Missling is full of himself and full of ____. He's a poor excuse for a CEO but an incredible huckster who knows how to stretch a trial out as long as possible, raise money he previously said wasn't necessary, all so he can continue to collect his salary for another couple of years at shareholder expense.
Fortunately whether the drug works or not is independent of Missling's ineptitude. He's the CEO and he is responsible for creating shareholder value. So far he has 100% failed in that endeavor.
You were 100% spot on.
Does anyone believe there even is a broker? Wouldn't surprise me if it were a lie.
Why the secrecy? I can understand not revealing who the broker is soliciting, but not giving the name of the broker hired seems pretty strange, no?
Are you sure about that? I trust the doc here. And the fact it has "statin" in the name is a pretty clear giveaway.
Methinks maybe there is another anti-inflammatory compound out there in P2 trials that might be just as effective as Sigma-1.
The race is on.
Its not bashing to be critical. Its intelligent.
AVXL has been a dog of an investment over the last 2 or 3 years while the market has been at an all time high. That's indisputable. And Missling is 100% to blame for that.
Interesting. Thanks for the input.
Your opinion stated as fact.
What if the new P2 does really, really well? What if it goes to P3 and that does really, really well?
What if AVXL fails?
Number of trials is meaningless. It's the results that matter.
Can you explain why Missling won't reveal how many people are still enrolled in the trial? Maybe they all dropped out. Maybe they died?
Just trying to be consistent here. AVXL could work. My optimism is fading though now that I am starting to see Dr. Missling for who he is. Hopefully it works out for everyone.
I think today's drop has more to do with NTRP's gain.
Still, I don't trust Dr. Missling and it wouldn't surprise me if he thinks the Rett trial isn't going to end well so he wants to raise money while he still can.
Still no explanation for why he won't give an N number at 148 weeks as Doc328 mentioned...?
AVXL is down big today in part because one of its main competitors, Neurotrope, has news that is positive for their Bryostatin trial.
This isn't a coordinated bear raid, it's only 500k volume traded.
Yesterday someone here said that the volume was too low for this to be a coordinated attack.
So which is it?