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Good Weekend Listening - Jim Puplava
I have enjoyed listening to "Uncommon News & Views for the Wise Investor Hosted by Jim Puplava" Saturday mornings.
Here is a link:
http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html
Kipp
UC Resources Announces Filing of Financials
Friday November 9, 9:00 pm ET
(OK, got that out of the way after halt)
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(MARKET WIRE)--Nov 9, 2007 -- UC Resources Ltd. (CDNX:UC.V - News) ("UC" or "the Company") wishes to advise that it has filed the audited financials statements, MD&A, and Auditors Report for the 12 months ended June 30, 2007. These documents are available on www.SEDAR.com.
On behalf of the Board,
Jim Voisin, President
UC Resources Ltd.
Investors are invited to visit the UC Resources IR Hub at http://www.agoracom.com/ir/UCResources where they can post questions and receive answers or review questions and answers already posted by other investors. Alternatively, investors are able to e-mail all questions and correspondence to UC@agoracom.com where they can also request to be added to the investor e-mail list to receive all future press releases and updates in real time.
bigpike - I can't remember where he wrote/said it, but I remember him saying that base metals would be hit by a slowdown, then bounce back quickly on the back of a weakening dollar and continued global demand. I had some really good long term cap gains on my base metal stocks and I took them. As you can see I have a lot of Silver plus base metal exposure, but not much single base metal exposure.
I would take Coxe to be saying lighten up unless the story is compelling. However, he looks at the bigger cap miners so who knows?
Kipp
Bobwins - molding your way to $100! Congrats!
20/80 rule applies to my holdings:
About 80% in these stocks, roughly an equal amount of $ in each as a result of fairly recent deployment after being heavy in cash all summer:
Oil and Gas:
TXCO (tar sands wild card plus big EnCana gas wells) "Grasshopper" youuu hafff luuurrrrnnnn!
POE (gushers in Thailand)
AEZ (over a thousand possible wells in WY,ND)
Heavy Silver, plus Lead Zinc
EXM (Mother lode could be a drill hole away)
AUN (expanded mill, new mine coming in 08)
Heavty Copper, plus Gold Silver Zinc Lead
CS (SST) (expanding, scheming, best management in small miners)
Gold
NGG (Eric Sprott is in at $.50, good enough reason for me.)
20% in various amounts in these stocks:
YARA.OL (fertilizer yaa, shore, yaaa-bet-chew))
SST (mini Silver Wheaton look alike)
ISX (Potash One)!
AOS (suffering liberal tax change in Alberta)
PANL (oeld display tech)
ZMR (copper) (buy and mold 5 bagger hopeful)
GPMX (Moly) fighting with wex
UC (silver) halted the day after I bought a few, didn't file in time. Long shot but cheap!
DNN (nuke)
Still have some cash burning a hole in my pocket due to dollar going down every day. I have been watching SAM, SGR, EPM, GORO to get more gold but they keep doing stuff that makes me hesitate.
I have private placement money in TRGD's Tara Minerals, dead money for now. Not wanting any more exposure so don't own TRGD.
I sell zinc fertilizer for a living and own 33% of a 240 acre farm in IL so I feel exposed enough to agriculture. Kick myself daily for not buying big Ag stocks, aint hind sight great!
My plan is to hunker down and only sell stocks that give me a reason to. AOS might get kicked out for tax loss.
Lost $4/shr on TRGL, would have been over $8 if I still had it, was a big position. OUCH!
I made a ton last year on Zinc, Nickel "boys", Moly "girls"!
If you guys see anything I'm holding that may have problems, by all means let me know!
Thanks for sharing here!
Kipp
Len - Don Coxe has a way with words:
"7. The problems of the financial system haven’t vanished because of two rate cuts. An aged, emphysematous hiker accustomed to smoking two packs of cigarettes a day may start breathing more easily after descending from an ill-considered trip up a mountain, but that doesn’t mean he’s a candidate for a $1 million term life insurance policy without a medical. Those big bank SIVs are leaking badly, and Asset-Backed Commercial Paper still suffers from a rare condition of the financial climate: Global Freezing. Remain greatly underweight the banks and mortgage lenders."
I hope you are getting "Basic Points" from me?
Kipp
Don Coxe Recommendations from November "Basic Points"
*If any of you wish to get the full "Basic Points" newsletter just send me a PM with your email address and I will be happy to put you on the list. Kipp
INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATIONS
1. Remain overweight commodity stocks within equity portfolios.
2. Use our recommended weightings to allocate investments across the sectors—energy, agriculture, precious metals and base metals. The major international oil companies are not the best—or even second-best—way to invest in oil and gas. They face becoming yesterday’s story, because they are not replacing their production from politically-secure regions and they are competing with the state-owned and controlled companies worldwide. Those who still believe Big Oil controls world oil and gasoline prices can be included with those who claim to have seen flying saucers.
3. Gold (the ETF) and precious metals shares should be your primary emphasis on new money investments in commodity stocks. Gold’s price is ultimately headed for quadruple-digits in dollar terms. Remember the rule: buy stocks on the basis of unhedged reserves in the ground in politically-secure areas of the world. Use any earnings-related pullbacks in shares of companies meeting that criterion to increase your exposure.
4. Review your investments in Alberta in the light of the change in the political climate there. Institutions considering investing in Calgary office towers should reconsider their plans. Downtown Calgary, with its open pits, looks to be in a building boom that will end badly. It is a high-cost city, and it is no longer located in a politically-pristine province. Saskatchewan could be a reasonable alternative. The NDP government there has a reputation for sound, sensible government and for keeping its word. Two of Canada’s greatest companies—Cameco and Potash—are headquartered there. And the oil sands extend into Saskatchewan. Newfoundland and Labrador has moved ahead of Alberta for mining and oil investing security.
5. The current stock market rally is skating on thin ice: apart from the splendid performance of commodity stocks, the market lacks credible leadership. Nasdaq, carried by the “Four Horsemen”—RIMM, GOOG, AAPL and MSFT—has been outperforming the Dow; banks and other financials have been underperforming for months, and the Transports have failed to confirm the Dow’s new highs.
6. The dollar’s decline has been quickening lately. In particular, the Canadian dollar has been on a tear. It is showing signs of becoming primarily a financial—not an economic—currency. That could prove problematic for many Canadian industrial, retail and forest companies. We had for three years predicted parity for loonie, and raised that forecast to $1.10 last month. Those Midwest industrial companies that, by ingenuity, persistence, and heavy investment in technology somehow managed to survive the years of an overvalued greenback, have become very attractive investments. Their leading Quebec and Ontario competitors are about to face tougher competitive times. Canadian companies should consider using their new wealth to buy US competitors.
7. The problems of the financial system haven’t vanished because of two rate cuts. An aged, emphysematous hiker accustomed to smoking two packs of cigarettes a day may start breathing more easily after descending from an ill-considered trip up a mountain, but that doesn’t mean he’s a candidate for a $1 million term life insurance policy without a medical. Those big bank SIVs are leaking badly, and Asset-Backed Commercial Paper still suffers from a rare condition of the financial climate: Global Freezing. Remain greatly underweight the banks and mortgage lenders.
8. Agricultural stocks have been the brightest stock market stars this year. They are no longer cheap. But what they do is absolutely necessary for the global economy to generate sufficient growth in agricultural output to avert 1970s-style food inflation. They are core investments under any stock market conditions.
9. Oil nearing $100 and the subprime crisis are obvious constraints on economic growth. Commodity stock investors should review their base metal exposure—the most cyclical commodity group.
Don Coxe Recommendations from November "Basic Points"
*If any of you wish to get the full "Basic Points" newsletter just send me a PM with your email address and I will be happy to put you on the list. Kipp
INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATIONS
1. Remain overweight commodity stocks within equity portfolios.
2. Use our recommended weightings to allocate investments across the sectors—energy, agriculture, precious metals and base metals. The major international oil companies are not the best—or even second-best—way to invest in oil and gas. They face becoming yesterday’s story, because they are not replacing their production from politically-secure regions and they are competing with the state-owned and controlled companies worldwide. Those who still believe Big Oil controls world oil and gasoline prices can be included with those who claim to have seen flying saucers.
3. Gold (the ETF) and precious metals shares should be your primary emphasis on new money investments in commodity stocks. Gold’s price is ultimately headed for quadruple-digits in dollar terms. Remember the rule: buy stocks on the basis of unhedged reserves in the ground in politically-secure areas of the world. Use any earnings-related pullbacks in shares of companies meeting that criterion to increase your exposure.
4. Review your investments in Alberta in the light of the change in the political climate there. Institutions considering investing in Calgary office towers should reconsider their plans. Downtown Calgary, with its open pits, looks to be in a building boom that will end badly. It is a high-cost city, and it is no longer located in a politically-pristine province. Saskatchewan could be a reasonable alternative. The NDP government there has a reputation for sound, sensible government and for keeping its word. Two of Canada’s greatest companies—Cameco and Potash—are headquartered there. And the oil sands extend into Saskatchewan. Newfoundland and Labrador has moved ahead of Alberta for mining and oil investing security.
5. The current stock market rally is skating on thin ice: apart from the splendid performance of commodity stocks, the market lacks credible leadership. Nasdaq, carried by the “Four Horsemen”—RIMM, GOOG, AAPL and MSFT—has been outperforming the Dow; banks and other financials have been underperforming for months, and the Transports have failed to confirm the Dow’s new highs.
6. The dollar’s decline has been quickening lately. In particular, the Canadian dollar has been on a tear. It is showing signs of becoming primarily a financial—not an economic—currency. That could prove problematic for many Canadian industrial, retail and forest companies. We had for three years predicted parity for loonie, and raised that forecast to $1.10 last month. Those Midwest industrial companies that, by ingenuity, persistence, and heavy investment in technology somehow managed to survive the years of an overvalued greenback, have become very attractive investments. Their leading Quebec and Ontario competitors are about to face tougher competitive times. Canadian companies should consider using their new wealth to buy US competitors.
7. The problems of the financial system haven’t vanished because of two rate cuts. An aged, emphysematous hiker accustomed to smoking two packs of cigarettes a day may start breathing more easily after descending from an ill-considered trip up a mountain, but that doesn’t mean he’s a candidate for a $1 million term life insurance policy without a medical. Those big bank SIVs are leaking badly, and Asset-Backed Commercial Paper still suffers from a rare condition of the financial climate: Global Freezing. Remain greatly underweight the banks and mortgage lenders.
8. Agricultural stocks have been the brightest stock market stars this year. They are no longer cheap. But what they do is absolutely necessary for the global economy to generate sufficient growth in agricultural output to avert 1970s-style food inflation. They are core investments under any stock market conditions.
9. Oil nearing $100 and the subprime crisis are obvious constraints on economic growth. Commodity stock investors should review their base metal exposure—the most cyclical commodity group.
AEZ - +$.20 $7.15 Here is the presentation link:
http://aez.investorpass.com/profiles/investor/fullpage.asp?f=1&BzID=992&to=cp&Nav=0&LangID=1&s=0&ID=2572
I have not been able to check out what they said in Houston this morning, darn job getting in the way again....ahhhrggg!
Kipp
ISX Resources - new name "Potash ONE"
I picked this up on the stockhouse board. I need to look into it but it might get more attention. Waiting for 3D seismic results. Buying a little here and there.
I sent a Merrill 2008 Potash Outlook report to all of you that are on my "Basic Points" list. Lots of reading to do!
Kipp
Energy Report from Cornerstone
http://www.cornerstoneenergy.com/marketnews/mi110907.pdf
Monty - I owe you a public apology for my response to this post. I didn't read it all the way down to see your position and my comments were selfish. I want you to know that I am rooting for you to get the weight off your chest. I hope you get a good bounce here soon.
We are all a team here and we have one goal....collectively help each other get ahead! You are a great new asset!
Good Luck!
Kipp
avandalay - I consider gold and silver less of a commodity and more of an inflation hedge and way to get out of the U.S. Dollar. General commodities would be more "consumables" in my way of thinking. EXN.V, AUN.V, NGG.V, SST.V, are the types of stocks I think will do better in the falling USD rising inflation environment.
Kipp
JR. Gold/Silver - I am going out on a limb and saying it is time for a rotation into our beloved Jr's!
AEZ - American Oil & Gas
I am going to keep you guys up to date on what AEZ is doing. I think we will all be surprised at how big their gas wells turn out to be. Did I mention they have rights for north of 1,000 wells? We shall see.
American Oil & Gas To Present At Two Upcoming Investor Conferences
Denver, November 8, 2007 - American Oil & Gas Inc. (AMEX: AEZ) will be presenting at the Sanders Morris Harris 3rd Annual Investor Growth Conference which will be held at the New York Palace Hotel in New York City on November 8th and 9th. American's presentation will take place at 8:00 am EST on Friday, November 9th. The presentation will be webcast live and will be available for 90 days thereafter at http://www.corporate-ir.net/ireye/conflobby.zhtml?ticker=AEZ&item_id=1672158. This link will also be posted on the home page of American's website.
American will also be presenting at the Houston Energy Financial Forum which will be held at the Hotel ZaZa, November 13 – 15, 2007. American's presentation will take place at 3:30 pm CST on Tuesday, November 13th. The presentation will be webcast live and will be available for 90 days thereafter at http://www.iian.ibeam.com/events/penn001/24543/. This link will also be posted on the home page of American's website.
BHP Billiton Offered to Buy Rio; Proposal Rejected
(Mining merger mania getting a bid this morning, Kipp)
By Tan Hwee Ann and Dale Crofts
Nov. 8 (Bloomberg) -- BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's biggest mining company, said it offered to buy rival Rio Tinto Group, a proposal that was rejected.
BHP, based in Melbourne, said in a statement to the Regulatory News Service it ``recently'' wrote to the Rio board with an outline plan for a merger. BHP has again written to Rio to try to arrange a meeting. Rio stock rallied as much as 24 percent in London, while the company has a current market value of $158 billion.
A combined company would challenge Brazil's Cia. Vale do Rio Doce as the world's largest supplier of iron ore as rising demand in China pushes prices of the raw material used in steelmaking to a record. BHP would also gain access to more than 15 million tons of copper and 4.3 million tons of aluminum. Rio Tinto's annual profit rose 43 percent to $7.44 billion in 2006.
``Rio is a massive cash generator,'' Joe Youssef, a senior adviser at Macquarie Equities Ltd. in Sydney, said before today's statement. ``You can see why it's an attractive proposition based on its cash flows.''
Rio Tinto shares rose to as high as 5,399 pence, a record, and traded up 20 percent at 5,240 pence as of 11:23 a.m. in London.
Monte - Note to self - Run away from Peggy Kent! I had a bunch of CMM at $.50ish, sold half around $.90, sold the other half back around $.50. At least I got out with my shirt!
rogue - he forgot old MOPARS!
440 Six Pack Super Bird
426 HEMI Cuda
Plumb Crazy Purple Challenger Convert.
Dad and I have a bunch of them!
Matt - TXCO
I have made TXCO a core holding thus not planning to trade it. Big news could come at any time. They have a lot of wells drilling, and being complted. The reports from the completions will be quite good. EnCana is a partner and they are on a buying/drilling binge, that is another potential catalyst. They have contracted a third party to evaluate the tar sands play and the publishing of those results should show BILLIONS of reserve barrels of heavy oil.
My 2 cents for what it's worth!
Kipp
UC Resources Announces Delay in Filing Financials
Wednesday November 7, 9:35 am ET
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(MARKET WIRE)--Nov 7, 2007 -- UC Resources Ltd. ("UC" or "the Company") (CDNX:UC.V - News) wishes to advise that it is in default of filing its year-end financial statements and MD&A for the twelve months ended June 30, 2007 which were to have been filed on or before October 30, 2007 pursuant to relevant securities laws.
The Company has provided the draft financials statements and MD&A to the Company's auditors and is awaiting to receive the audited financial statements back from those auditors. The Company expects to file shortly.
On behalf of the Board,
Jim Voisin, President & CEO
Monty - YOU DO GOOD WORK!
I like your blog. Do you do it full time or have a "real" job too. My real job gets in the way of trading!
I put an order in for more SST, I have a lot of CS that gives me some muted exposure to SST.
Thanks!
Kipp
European Minerals Corp: Varvarinskoye Update
Wednesday November 7, 9:00 am ET
- Plant Commissioning has Commenced
- One Million Tonnes of Ore on Stockpile
- Drilling for Additional Mineralisation Underway
LONDON, ENGLAND--(Marketwire - Nov. 7, 2007) -
Project Update
European Minerals Corporation ("EMC" or the "Company") (TSX:EPM - News; AIM:EUM) is pleased to report that the staged commissioning of the process plant at its Varvarinskoye gold/copper project in Northern Kazakhstan is proceeding on schedule. Mechanical testing of the major items of equipment is complete. This "cold" commissioning phase is being managed by the Company's in-house commissioning team, which has considerable regional and cold weather experience. The commissioning team has been on site since early October 2007, initially training the Company's process plant operators and assisting the construction team in preparation for the "cold" commissioning of the process plant.
Mining in the central pit is ongoing and over one million tonnes of various ore types have already been delivered to the run of mine stockpile to be available for crushing and delivery into the grinding circuits.
The Company plans to begin introducing ore into the process plant by mid November 2007 and this will mark the commencement of "hot" commissioning. This phase of the staged commissioning will continue through the winter months with the objective of gradually building up the daily throughput tonnage until the process plant reaches its design rate of 4.2 million tonnes of ore per annum. The Company expects to achieve this initial annual throughput rate during Q2 2008, assuming no delays are experienced due to winter commissioning. The commencement of the "hot" commissioning stage by mid November 2007 should result in a first gold pour before the end of December 2007.
Bert Kennedy, President and CEO commented today:
"As forecast 12 months ago, our Company has successfully met its target of commencing cold commissioning of the Varvarinskoye process plant in October 2007, despite late delivery of some final pieces of equipment and some minor last minute equipment modifications. For that our thanks go to everyone involved in this major achievement.
With the introduction of ore into the plant in the next few weeks we face full commissioning over the winter months. While this is not ideal, it is something we have planned for and we are confident that our staff will meet this challenge with the same resolve that has enabled us to complete construction on schedule.
We are still on target to reach commercial production by the end of Q1 2008."
Additional Drilling
During September two diamond drilling rigs were mobilised at Varvarinskoye to undertake drilling to delineate additional mineralisation within the current mining limits and beneath the planned pit bottom. Results from this drilling will be reported as they become available.
In addition, a 2,500 metre drilling programme will commence shortly to test various gold and copper geological anomalies within the 220 sq km exploration licence which surrounds the 3 sq km Varvarinskoye mining licence.
About Varvarinskoye
The Company regularly updates its website at www.europeanminerals.com with photographs illustrating progress on the Varvarinskoye project.
Additional information with respect to Varvarinskoye including the "Varvarinskoye Gold/Copper Project Bankable Feasibility Study" dated November 2004 and the independent estimates of current estimated mineral resources and reserves can be obtained from EMC's filings on SEDAR at www.sedar.com.
Bert Kennedy, the Company's President and Chief Executive Officer, is the "qualified person" (as such term is defined in National Instrument 43-101) responsible for the technical and scientific information in this press release.
SST Release:
Silverstone Resources Corp. ("Silverstone")(TSX VENTURE:SST) is pleased to announce it has entered into an agreement for a private placement with a syndicate of underwriters led by Scotia Capital Inc. and including PI Financial Corp. pursuant to which the underwriters have agreed to purchase 17,250,000 common shares of Silverstone at a price of $2.90 per share for aggregate gross proceeds of approximately $50.0 million. Capstone Mining Corp. has indicated that it will purchase 3,577,670 common shares of Silverstone in the offering. The underwriters also have been granted an option to purchase an additional 3,450,000 common shares of Silverstone at the issue price for additional gross proceeds to the company of $10,005,000. The offering is being completed on a private placement basis subject to certain conditions including, but not limited to, the execution of a definitive underwriting agreement and the receipt of all necessary approvals including the approval of the TSX Venture Exchange. The offering is expected to close on or about November 27, 2007.
Net proceeds from the offering will be used to repay debt and for general corporate purposes including potential acquisitions of silver production.
The securities being offered have not, nor will they be registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and may not be offered or sold within the United States or to, or for the account or benefit of, U.S. persons absent U.S. registration or an applicable exemption from the U.S. registration requirements. This release does not constitute an offer or sale of securities in the United States.
SST PP priced at $2.90. Anyone think this is a buy at $3ish??
The U.S. Dollar Decline
I am 90%+ in Canadian Gold, Silver, and Energy stocks, (some copper, lead, and zinc are also contained in the ore). I own TXCO and AEZ U.S. oil/gas. A little Yara in Oslo.
The average person in this country has no idea that their savings in cd's and balanced mutual funds is actually losing wealth now. If you take their savings value compared to grains, metals, oil/gas, "stuff", over the past 2 years, they have lost 50% of their wealth in many comparisons.
$100,000 2 years ago would buy 50,000 bushels of corn, today it is 25,000. Would you have been better off owning corn? You would have been better off to own just about anything real, "stuff" as I like to call it. Oh, EXCLUDING residential housing! But farmland is a different story.
When people wake up to these facts, "stuff" has a lot of room to run further. Yes, there will be pull backs, and yes Wall Street HATES "stuff", and yes the dollar will dead cat bounce. But those of us invested in commodities are smiling ear to ear.
The VMC Energy and Junior Miner boards have some great picks going. The ibox's list many of them.
GET YOUR STUFF! The dollar is becoming a hot potato that nobody wants to hold.
Good Luck!
Kipp
Dollar Slumps to Record on China's Plans to Diversify Reserves
Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell the most since September against the currencies of its six biggest trading partners after Chinese officials signaled plans to diversify the nation's $1.43 trillion of foreign exchange reserves.
The dollar fell against all 16 of the most-active currencies, declining to the weakest versus the Canadian dollar since the end of a fixed exchange rate in 1950, a 26-year low against the pound and a 23-year low versus the Australian dollar. The New York Board of Trade's dollar index dropped to 75.21 today, the lowest since the gauge started in March 1973.
``Further weakening of the dollar is very likely,'' said Teis Knuthsen, the Copenhagen-based head of foreign-exchange, fixed-income and derivative research at Danske Bank A/S, the Nordic region's second-biggest lender. China may ``diversify out of dollar holdings.''
The U.S. currency slumped to $1.4704 per euro, the lowest since the 13-nation currency debuted in January 1999, before trading at $1.4671 as of 7:15 a.m. in New York, from $1.4557 late yesterday. The dollar dropped the most in two months against the yen, trading as low as 112.87 yen. The euro fell against the yen to 165.84, from 166.99 yesterday.
The U.S. dollar index may be due for a reversal, according to a technical indicator. Its 14-day relative-strength measure fell to 21.38 today, below the 30 mark, which may signal the currency's decline has bottomed out.
In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.
Chinese Comments
``We will favor stronger currencies over weaker ones, and will readjust accordingly,'' Cheng Siwei, vice chairman of China's National People's Congress, told a conference in Beijing. The dollar is ``losing its status as the world currency,'' Xu Jian, a central bank vice director, said at the same meeting.
The dollar also fell to an all-time low against the synthetic euro, a theoretical value that estimates where the currency would have traded before its inception. The prior record was $1.4557 set in 1992.
The U.S. currency may weaken to between $1.48 and $1.50 against the euro by year-end, Knuthsen said.
Chinese investors have reduced their holdings of U.S. Treasuries by 5 percent to $400 billion in the five months to August. China Investment Corp., which manages the nation's $200 billion sovereign wealth fund, said last month it may get more of the nation's reserves to invest to improve returns.
Treasuries Rise
U.S. 10-year Treasury notes rose today as mounting credit-market losses and declines in stocks pushed investors to the safety of government debt.
``The world's currency structure has changed,'' Xu said at the conference in Beijing. Cheng, speaking to reporters after his speech, said his comments don't mean China will buy more euros. The National People's Congress, China's legislature, isn't involved in setting currency policy.
``Cheng has a history of speaking out on a range of financial market and economic developments, and his comments are not always accurate,'' said Glenn Maguire, chief Asia economist at Societe Generale SA in Hong Kong.
Cheng's remarks on Jan. 30 that China's stock rally was a ``bubble'' caused the benchmark index to fall the most in almost two years the following day. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, then over 2,500 points, has since climbed above 5,300.
The euro's gains may be limited by speculation European economic growth may slow, reducing the need for higher interest rates.
ECB Rates
The European Central Bank will keep its key rate at 4 percent tomorrow, according to all 61 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Data yesterday showed manufacturing orders in Germany fell more than expected in September.
``The euro is clearly overvalued against the dollar,'' Emanuele Ravano, co-head of European strategy for Pacific Investment Management Co., which manages the world's biggest bond fund, said late yesterday in Brussels. The ECB ``over the course of 2008 will totally change its tune'' by cutting in the second half.
Europe's single currency will trade at $1.43 versus the dollar by year-end, according to the median forecast of 42 analysts and brokerages surveyed by Bloomberg News.
The dollar's decline helped drive the price of crude oil to a record $98 a barrel and gold to a 27-year high, encouraging investors to buy assets in commodity-producing nations.
Commodity Currencies
Commodity currencies led the gains today. The Canadian dollar advanced to $1.1040. The Australian dollar gained to 93.98 U.S. cents, the highest since April 1984, from 92.87 U.S. cents. The rand rose to as high as 6.4294 per dollar, the highest since May 2006. The pound rose to $2.1052, the highest since May 1981.
The dollar's 9.8 percent drop against the euro this year boosted the competitiveness of U.S. exports, helping shrink the nation's trade deficit to $57.6 billion in August, the smallest since January.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy yesterday raised concern about the euro's strength during a visit to the U.S., saying ``you don't need too weak a dollar'' to spur growth in the world's largest economy.
``This is an asset story and shows sentiment for the dollar continues to be quite negative,'' said David Forrester, currency economist at Barclays Capital in Singapore.
The Australian dollar gained after the country's central bank raised its benchmark borrowing cost to 6.75 percent today. Governor Glenn Stevens, announcing the quarter-point rate increase, said inflation will exceed the bank's target.
Pressure on Fed
The dollar fell against the Norwegian krone as traders added to bets Norway's central bank will increase its 5 percent deposit rate. It declined to 5.2835 kroner, from 5.3474. The dollar also dropped as losses from subprime-mortgage defaults added to pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower its target for the overnight lending rate between banks to 4.25 percent next month.
``The interest-rate outlook is dragging down the dollar against major currencies such as the euro and the Australian dollar,'' said Seiichiro Muta, director of foreign exchange in Tokyo at UBS AG, the world's second-largest currency trader. ``I cannot see the bottom of the dollar depreciation yet.''
Interest-rate futures traded on the Chicago Board of Trade show a 62 percent chance of a quarter-percentage point Fed rate cut on Dec. 11, compared with 6 percent a month ago. Citigroup Inc. may write down an additional $2.7 billion worth of subprime- related assets, CreditSights Inc. said yesterday.
New Zealand's dollar rose to 78.35 U.S. cents from 78 U.S. cents on speculation a report tomorrow will show the unemployment rate remained at a record low, boosting the chance of another increase to the country's record 8.25 percent benchmark interest rate.
yield - UC
I found this on the stockhouse site:
"In regards to the financials they are complete. We have spoken with the exchange and are in the final process with the auditors to file shortly."
UC is changing management and looks to me like they were wrapped around the axle for a while. I bought a few shares yesterday and then they halted trading. I think if the new management can get the company back on track it could be a good opportunity.
Kipp
Bobwins - CXPO
Do you know if the 75% hedge to satisfy the bank includes future production, or was it for the current production on that date?
Kipp
2morrow - I see you are not an ihub paying member. I sent you a PM asking if you were trying to get to Vegas and you never responded....because you never got it. I wish ihub would send those unread PMs back so we knew about it. Anyway, you should come to Vegas, do you live anywhere close?
Kipp
Len - Homebuilder WARNING
One point I want to make about the government "New Home Sales" report #'s.
The homebuilders furnish the numbers to the government statisticians. (They totally pump up the numbers)
The cancelations are NEVER taken back out.(The builders know this!)
Homebuilders are reporting cancellations running 40 to 60% in their earnings reports...SO...you have to reduce the numbers being reported by 50%.
This is how the government explains this madness on their website (from a post I made earlier this year):
Here is a link to the U.S. Census : http://www.census.gov/const/www/newressalesindex.html
"How does the Census Bureau handle cancelled sales contracts in the published estimates of New Home Sales?
The Census Bureau does not make adjustments to the new home sales figures to account for cancellations of sales contracts. The Survey of Construction (SOC) is the instrument used to collect all data on housing starts, completions, and sales. This survey usually begins by sampling a building permit authorization, which is then tracked to find out when the housing unit starts, completes, and sells. When the owner or builder of a housing unit authorized by a permit is interviewed, one of the questions asked is whether the house is being built for sale. If it is, we then ask if the house has been sold (contract signed or earnest money exchanged). If the respondent reports that the unit has been sold, the survey does not follow up in subsequent months to find out if it is still sold or if the sale was cancelled. The house is removed from the "for sale" inventory and counted as sold for that month. If the house it is not yet started or under construction, it will be followed up until completion and then it will be dropped from the survey. Since we discontinue asking about the sale of the house after we collect a sale date, we never know if the sales contract is cancelled or if the house is ever resold. Therefore, the eventual purchase by a subsequent buyer is not counted in the survey; the same housing unit cannot be sold twice. As a result of our methodology, if conditions are worsening in the marketplace and cancellations are high, sales would be temporarily overestimated. When conditions improve and these cancelled sales materialize as actual sales, our sales would then be underestimated since we did not allow the cases with cancelled sales to re-enter the survey. In the long run, cancellations do not cause the survey to overestimate or underestimate sales."
Thanks Len, I printed the closing list of guesses and taped it to the wall in my office.
Kipp
EXN rug pull, anyone know why? I was out or I would have been tempted to add a few.
UC Resources (UC.V, UCRLF):
Has anyone here done any work on UC Resources? It was in the Toby newsletter today. I will do some reading after work and see what they have.
Here is the mention from the newsletter:
UC Resources is a micro-cap silver and gold producer with a market capitalization under $60 million. I calculated at full production they will produce 1.3 million ounces Silver and 14,000 ounces Gold. Silver producers of 1 million ounces typically fetch a market cap of $80 – $100 million. The CEO, who has now resigned, has been promising full production capability by the end of the year, which is not going to happen. They should be able to move into production in 2008.
An opportunity has fallen into UC’s lap. They signed an earn in agreement with two very small companies. These two companies have properties at McFauld’s Lake in Canada. UC can acquire 55% interest by actively exploring their properties, meeting predetermined progress milestones. Normally, I would not assign any value for unknown exploration potential, but this is a different case. One of UC’s neighbors at McFauld’s, Noront (NOT.V), hit what appears to be a
mother lode. They have found high grade Nickel, Palladium, Platinum and Zinc ore. Noront’s share price was C$0.35 before the discovery was announced and has hit a high this past week of C$7.00. UC has an inherent value of C$1.00 based upon their Mexican property. McFauld’s Lake exploration potential is the whip cream and cherry on top. UC has discovered high grade copper and zinc in several drill holes. Their VP of exploration also sits on Noront’s board. UC recently raised capital with the intent of intensive exploration on their McFauld’s properties. They have said recently they are soon going to drill “Noront like signatures”. Considering the VP is on Noront’s board, he will know exactly what to look for in placing their drill rigs. Should UC over the next year identify ores similar to Noront’s, the stock could easily rally 5 to 10 times its present value. Company Website: www.ucresources.net
Bobwins, I will sport your plane ticket and you can go down there and sort themalll out!
TXCO C.C.
The tar sands will take a while to develop. They are going to get a third party valuation of the tar sands resource to show the world that there are "Biiyyyons" (texas speak) of barrels of heavy "Ohhhl" to be recovered.
The big news for me was the Deep Bossier trend that has big ngas potential at some 20,000+ feet. EnCana paid 2 Biiyyyon dollars yesterday (re-valued canadian loonies no less) to get a stake in this new deep zone. TXCO thinks they are sitting on the Bossier as well. TXCO said they are going to let the big boys at EnCana lead the way on these wells and they will follow based on what the big boys find.
All in all, this is going to be a nice long term hold/mold for us. Steady growth through the drill bit will give us a base, and the tar sands and EnCana J/V gas wells will supply ocasional bursts of rocket fuel.
I am employing the Bobwins "buy & mold" method with TXCO.
Here is the EnCana news from yesterday:
CALGARY, Alberta, Nov 5 (Reuters) - EnCana Corp (ECA.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Monday it will pay $2.55 billion to acquire the remaining 50 percent stake in the prolific Amoruso natural gas field in Texas from partner Leor Energy, boosting production and cementing its control of a key new play in the state.
The move gives EnCana, Canada's biggest oil and gas exploration firm, sole ownership of the field 80 miles (130 km) northwest of Houston, which is home to two of the biggest gas wells drilled in the United States over the past five years.
"The Leor assets are located in one of the fastest-growing and highest-potential natural gas basins in North America," Randy Eresman, EnCana's chief executive, said on a conference call. "We believe the Amoruso field is the best emerging unconventional gas play in North America."
The price tag for Leor's stake has skyrocketed over the past two years as massive new reserves were found in the technically challenging field.
Two years ago, EnCana paid $80 million for a 30 percent stake in Amoruso from Leor, which is privately held. It added a further 20 percent last year for $250 million.
Over those two years, production at the field had ramped up to 215 million cubic feet a day and EnCana expects that to grow to as much as 355 million cubic feet a day next year.
"It's still a very early-stage development but it does seem to be gaining a lot of momentum," said Kyle Preston, an analyst with Salman Partners.
The company said two of the wells drilled into the field were among the most prolific onshore gas wells in the United States since 2002. The Bonnie Ann 1 and South McLean B1 wells produced more than 50 million cubic feet of gas a day while the last well drilled there, called Laxson, is producing 65 million cubic feet a day.
The latest acquisition will add Leor's output of 75 million cubic feet a day and 56,300 acres of exploration lands in east Texas. EnCana, which produced 3.63 billion cubic feet of gas a day in the third quarter, expects the deal to immediately add to cash flow and be neutral to earnings.
"It's a great outcome. I think they're buying the best property in North America," said Guma Aguiar, Leor's chief executive.
The deal puts an exclamation point on an old-fashioned wildcat play that is the biggest find in Houston geologist John Amoruso's career.
Amoruso theorized that 150 million years ago a river emptied into the sea in Robertson County and the result was gas 14,000 to 20,000 feet beneath the cow pastures of today.
The field is part of the Deep Bossier trend in east Texas, part of a play that produces about 1.4 billion cubic feet of gas a day. EnCana said production in the region is highly profitable because the play lies close to pipelines and gas trading hubs.
In total, EnCana expects the field to produce up to 3.3 trillion cubic feet, including the portion it already controls.
The acquisition is EnCana's largest purchase of gas assets since 2004, when it paid $2.7 billion for U.S. producer Tom Brown Inc.
As well, it's the first major deal the company has made since it threatened to cut $1 billion in spending in Alberta if the province raised royalty rates on oil and gas production.
Alberta did hike rates, but less than EnCana had feared, and Eresman said the purchase wasn't a response to the higher costs.
"It is a normal strategic event," he said. "This transaction has nothing to do with EnCana's future plans as they relate to the Alberta government's new royalty framework."
Shares of EnCana fell 79 Canadian cents, or 1.2 percent, to C$66.98 on the Toronto Stock Exchange amid a broad-based retreat by the market.
The acquisition is effective as of Oct. 1 and is expected to close by year-end.
Kipp
TXCO C.C.
The tar sands will take a while to develop. They are going to get a third party valuation of the tar sands resource to show the world that there are "Biiyyyons" (texas speak) of barrels of heavy "Ohhhl" to be recovered.
The big news for me was the Deep Bossier trend that has big ngas potential at some 20,000+ feet. EnCana paid 2 Biiyyyon dollars yesterday (re-valued canadian loonies no less) to get a stake in this new deep zone. TXCO thinks they are sitting on the Bossier as well. TXCO said they are going to let the big boys at EnCana lead the way on these wells and they will follow based on what the big boys find.
All in all, this is going to be a nice long term hold/mold for us. Steady growth through the drill bit will give us a base, and the tar sands and EnCana J/V gas wells will supply ocasional bursts of rocket fuel.
I am employing the Bobwins "buy & mold" method with TXCO.
Here is the EnCana news from yesterday:
CALGARY, Alberta, Nov 5 (Reuters) - EnCana Corp (ECA.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Monday it will pay $2.55 billion to acquire the remaining 50 percent stake in the prolific Amoruso natural gas field in Texas from partner Leor Energy, boosting production and cementing its control of a key new play in the state.
The move gives EnCana, Canada's biggest oil and gas exploration firm, sole ownership of the field 80 miles (130 km) northwest of Houston, which is home to two of the biggest gas wells drilled in the United States over the past five years.
"The Leor assets are located in one of the fastest-growing and highest-potential natural gas basins in North America," Randy Eresman, EnCana's chief executive, said on a conference call. "We believe the Amoruso field is the best emerging unconventional gas play in North America."
The price tag for Leor's stake has skyrocketed over the past two years as massive new reserves were found in the technically challenging field.
Two years ago, EnCana paid $80 million for a 30 percent stake in Amoruso from Leor, which is privately held. It added a further 20 percent last year for $250 million.
Over those two years, production at the field had ramped up to 215 million cubic feet a day and EnCana expects that to grow to as much as 355 million cubic feet a day next year.
"It's still a very early-stage development but it does seem to be gaining a lot of momentum," said Kyle Preston, an analyst with Salman Partners.
The company said two of the wells drilled into the field were among the most prolific onshore gas wells in the United States since 2002. The Bonnie Ann 1 and South McLean B1 wells produced more than 50 million cubic feet of gas a day while the last well drilled there, called Laxson, is producing 65 million cubic feet a day.
The latest acquisition will add Leor's output of 75 million cubic feet a day and 56,300 acres of exploration lands in east Texas. EnCana, which produced 3.63 billion cubic feet of gas a day in the third quarter, expects the deal to immediately add to cash flow and be neutral to earnings.
"It's a great outcome. I think they're buying the best property in North America," said Guma Aguiar, Leor's chief executive.
The deal puts an exclamation point on an old-fashioned wildcat play that is the biggest find in Houston geologist John Amoruso's career.
Amoruso theorized that 150 million years ago a river emptied into the sea in Robertson County and the result was gas 14,000 to 20,000 feet beneath the cow pastures of today.
The field is part of the Deep Bossier trend in east Texas, part of a play that produces about 1.4 billion cubic feet of gas a day. EnCana said production in the region is highly profitable because the play lies close to pipelines and gas trading hubs.
In total, EnCana expects the field to produce up to 3.3 trillion cubic feet, including the portion it already controls.
The acquisition is EnCana's largest purchase of gas assets since 2004, when it paid $2.7 billion for U.S. producer Tom Brown Inc.
As well, it's the first major deal the company has made since it threatened to cut $1 billion in spending in Alberta if the province raised royalty rates on oil and gas production.
Alberta did hike rates, but less than EnCana had feared, and Eresman said the purchase wasn't a response to the higher costs.
"It is a normal strategic event," he said. "This transaction has nothing to do with EnCana's future plans as they relate to the Alberta government's new royalty framework."
Shares of EnCana fell 79 Canadian cents, or 1.2 percent, to C$66.98 on the Toronto Stock Exchange amid a broad-based retreat by the market.
The acquisition is effective as of Oct. 1 and is expected to close by year-end.
Kipp
TXCO C.C. in 5 minutes Link:
http://www.txco.com/concall.html
TXCO C.C. in 5 minutes Link:
http://www.txco.com/concall.html
cl001 - Thanks for the recognition, we have a great team effort going here and I really appreciate everyone in the VMC universe. It has changed my financial condition forever!
Kipp
I would not stand in the way of kicking CMM off the list. I sold when Bob sold.
Kipp