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SGMA -3.55 to 4.05, I dumped my shares in pre-market and early trading ..... their earnings are presumably still being dragged down by WAGZ since they remain a minority stakeholder. That acquisition was a total disaster and continues to impact them. I have no interest in owning this stock ever again ! Good riddance.
Wade: I can well understand that financial security is a priority, but there's a cost to being out of the market. Hypothetically lets say your average after tax annual return on invested funds since 2014 was 20%. And let's say you took an average of $50,000 out per year for 10 years and put it in the bank for low risk free returns. Had you stayed fully invested the $50k per year withdrawals would now be worth $1.55M versus $550k risk free. A huge $1M difference in your net worth. I don't know what your actual returns or withdrawals have been, but I think you've reported previously that you've had some spectacular years, including 2022, so your average annual after tax return is probably well above 20%. Even with the disaster this year, your WadeGarret portfolio is up 74% since the start of last year.
I'm virtually always at least 80% invested, perhaps briefly 75% on rare occasions, but usually 95% or so .... there are always undervalued stocks to buy even in a pricey market. Right now I'm about 87% invested with the remaining 13% in SGOV.
GTEC +.16 to 4.47, nice trading ! I'm down to roughly 45% of my original peak position. It's been quite a joyride the past week. Looks as though Wednesday's high of $5.25 may have been the top, but who knows ? Maybe it's setting up for another push higher ? I'm continuing to trim shares gradually.
Wade - why do you say it was smart to remove much of your profit from the market since 2014 ? Have you really done better with fixed income investments than with stocks over the past 10 years ? Even going back the last 20 months, judging by your WadeGarret portfolio, your investments are up 74% versus around 7% in short term treasuries. Seems like you would now have MUCH more wealth if you had NOT been constantly reducing your percent of assets invested. Or have your stock holdings done poorly since 2014 ? The S&P is up roughly 200% since 2014 and many stocks have done much better than 200%.
Wade - why do you think longs have been duped when the S&P is up 16% YTD ? The shorts are the ones losing money. The longs have clearly been right and rewarded with nice gains while the shorts have been duped and are losing money !
SIGA -.01 to 4.39, I joined you and Otcbargains with a small position today ..... I think it should be good for a 10%+ bounce in the coming weeks .... if the DoD sticks with SIGA and keeps the vaccine stockpile current as doses expire, it could be a gravy train for years to come ....
UAW strike seems likely starting next Friday -
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/07/gm-offers-wage-increases-hefty-bonuses-uaw.html
F, GM
DBI +1.72 to 12.10 after a solid earnings report -
briefing -
Designer Brands beats by $0.15, beats on revs; reaffirms FY24 EPS guidance; Q2 comps +8.9% (10.38 ) :
Reports Q2 (Jul) earnings of $0.59 per share, $0.15 better than the FactSet Consensus of $0.44; revenues fell 5.4% year/year to $813 mln vs the $787.94 mln FactSet Consensus.
Q2 Total comparable sales decreased by 8.9%
Gross profit decreased to $273.4 million versus $295.7 million last year, and gross margin was 34.5% compared to 34.4% for the same period last year.
Co reaffirms guidance for FY24, sees EPS of $1.20-1.50 vs. $1.29 FactSet Consensus. Co reaffirms FY23 net sales Down mid- to high-single digits (FactSet consensus -6%).
AER (62.72) reports an insurance settlement receipt of $645M for 17 of the 135 aircraft seized by Russia - the company took a $2.7B writeoff in Q1 2022 and they've been working through the courts to realize associated insurance claims - $645M represents about $2.80 per share.
On September 5, 2023, we received cash insurance settlement proceeds in the total amount of approximately US$645 million in full settlement of our insurance claims under the Aeroflot group’s insurance policies in respect of the 17 aircraft and five spare engines on lease to Russian flag carrier Public Joint Stock Company “Aeroflot – Russian Airlines” (“Aeroflot”) and Joint Stock Company Rossiya Airlines, a member of Aeroflot Group (“Rossiya”), at the time of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Effective upon receipt of these insurance settlement proceeds from Limited Liability Company “Insurance Company NSK” (“NSK”), a Russian insurance company, we have released our claims against NSK, Aeroflot, Rossiya and their international reinsurers with respect to these aircraft and engines. These insurance settlements and receipt of the settlement proceeds were approved by the U.S. Department of Commerce and the U.S. Department of the Treasury and are consistent with other applicable sanctions regimes.
The amount of our separate US$3.4 billion claim against the “All Risks” insurers under our contingent and possessed insurance policy that relates to these 17 aircraft and five spare engines is approximately US$908 million. As a result of the receipt of these insurance settlement proceeds, this claim will be reduced to approximately US$2.75 billion.
Insurance settlement discussions are ongoing with respect to our claims under the insurance policies of several other Russian airlines. However, it is uncertain whether any of these discussions will result in any insurance settlement or receipt of insurance settlement proceeds and, if so, in what amount. In particular, it remains uncertain whether the necessary approvals and funding to complete any such further insurance settlements can be obtained.
2022 Q1 -
In response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and sanctions imposed by the United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom and other countries, we terminated the leasing of all our aircraft and engines with Russian airlines. Prior to the Russian invasion, we had 135 aircraft and 14 engines on lease with Russian airlines, which represented approximately 5% of AerCap's fleet by net book value as of December 31, 2021. We have removed 22 aircraft and 3 engines outside of Russia, and 113 aircraft and 11 engines remain in Russia.
During the first quarter of 2022, we recognized a pre-tax charge of $2.7 billion ($2.4 billion after-tax) to our earnings, comprised of flight equipment write-offs and impairments, which were partially offset by the derecognition of lease-related assets and liabilities. We recognized a total loss on our assets that remain in Russia and Ukraine and impairment losses on the assets we have recovered from Russian and Ukrainian airlines.
We had letters of credit related to our aircraft and engines leased to Russian airlines as of February 24, 2022 of approximately $260 million, confirmed by nine financial institutions in Western Europe. We have presented requests for payment to all these institutions. To date, we have received payments of $210 million related to these letters of credit. We have initiated legal proceedings against one financial institution which rejected our payment demands in respect of certain letters of credit.
Our lessees are required to provide insurance coverage with respect to leased aircraft and we are named as insureds under those policies in the event of a total loss of an aircraft or engine. We also purchase insurance which provides us with coverage when our flight equipment are not subject to a lease or where a lessee's policy fails to indemnify us. We have submitted an insurance claim for approximately $3.5 billion with respect to all aircraft and engines remaining in Russia and intend to pursue all of our claims under these policies with respect to our assets leased to Russian airlines as of February 24, 2022. However, the timing and amount of any recoveries under these policies are uncertain and we have not recognized any claim receivables as of March 31, 2022.
HRMY +1.41 to 38.05, too bad you bailed out ..... it's turned into a nice winner.
PLYMOUTH MEETING, Pa., Sept. 7, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. ("Harmony") (Nasdaq: HRMY), a pharmaceutical company dedicated to developing and commercializing innovative therapies for patients with rare neurological diseases, today announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has granted Orphan Drug designation to pitolisant for the treatment of idiopathic hypersomnia (IH).
SIGA is an interesting special situation play with the big unknown being how many more years the government DoD will be buying TPOXX. Seems like a good buy for a 10% to 20% gain in the coming weeks or months based on its recent trading history. I may pick up a few shares.
SIGA - smallpox was eradicated worldwide in the 1970's, but the US government is concerned that the virus could be used as a biological weapon by terrorists or in a war so they're stockpiling vaccine. TPOXX recently got a shelf life extension to 3.5 years, but nonetheless it seems new orders will have to come in to replace expiring doses ? Even so, other companies could get the next big contract.
SIGA -.09 to 4.40, looks cheap, but maybe these huge government orders to stockpile their smallpox anti-viral drug are coming to an end. Aside from this big government contract signed in 2018, their revenues are minimal and they are losing money. How big a stockpile does the government need ? Maybe this year's order will be the final one ?
10K -
On September 10, 2018, the Company entered into a contract with BARDA pursuant to which SIGA agreed to deliver up to 1,488,000 courses of oral TPOXX® to the Strategic Stockpile, and to manufacture and deliver to the Strategic Stockpile, or store as vendor-managed inventory, up to 212,000 courses of IV TPOXX®. Additionally, the contract includes funding from BARDA for a range of activities, including: advanced development of IV TPOXX®, post-marketing activities for oral and IV TPOXX®, and procurement activities. As of December 31, 2022, the contract with BARDA (as amended, modified, or supplemented from time to time, the "19C BARDA Contract") contemplates up to approximately $602.5 million of payments, of which approximately $51.7 million of payments are included within the base period of performance of five years, approximately $268.9 million of payments are related to exercised options and up to approximately $281.9 million of payments are currently specified as unexercised options. BARDA may choose in its sole discretion when, or whether, to exercise any of the unexercised options. The period of performance for options is up to ten years from the date of entry into the 19C BARDA Contract and such options could be exercised at any time during the contract term, including during the base period of performance.
OGN -1.07 to 19.93, looks cheap based on adj EPS estimates of $4.41 for 2023. This was a spinoff of "established brands" (a euphemism for old past patent drugs in decline) from Merck in 2021 but they were saddled with lots of debt, some of which has variable interest rates based on LIBOR. The question is whether OGN's growth initiatives can offset the declining revenues of established brands and whether they can pay down debt before it has to be rolled over in 2028 at presumably higher interest rates ....
OGN is way down from its 52wk high of $32 and seems to have technical support at around $20 ..... I added it to my watchlist. Maybe it's making a bottom on this retest of the May lows ?
GTEC +.72 to 4.52, I'm continuing to sell gradually into the strength, but still holding about 50% of my position. It's been quite a joyride with the stock now up 160% in the past week ..... but it's still not showing signs of a blowoff top, imho.
Goldman sees just a 15% chance of recession in the next 12 months -
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/goldman-sachs-cuts-chances-us-recession-next-one-year-15-2023-09-05/
GTEC - fair value is very much a matter of opinion and varies greatly depending on what metrics one uses. For instance, on any given stock, analyst price targets can vary enormously. And market value fluctuates tremendously for individual stocks even as fundamentals remain relatively unchanged. So I am never fixated on a certain price target. I use a more flexible approach that respects wide ranging opinions, encompasses a stock's trading history and the current action. Back in 2021 on similar earnings, GTEC traded in a very wide range and averaged roughly $8 for the year. This year it's averaged about $2 per share. So fair value is a matter of perceptions, certainly nothing etched in stone and not a number that market participants will agree on. One could argue that $5 is FV for GTEC, but it's a matter of opinion and one could argue higher or lower.
My style is to buy stocks that I feel are undervalued, accumulate on weakness and sell into strength, realizing that fluctuations in the stock price will generate profits for me. In the case of GTEC, if it plunges this week, I'll welcome the opportunity to buy back shares. If it continues to rally, I still have shares to sell.
VTLE - I don't think they are 100% hedged for Q3 and Q4, but in any case they'll be able to hedge at higher prices for 2024 and beyond ....
NVDA - the holder of a Jan $350 call would be wasting money by exercising it since it still has about $14 of time value. If for some reason they wanted to own the stock now rather than wait until January, the holder could sell the call for the current bid of $148, capturing the $14 time value, and then buy the stock for $484. A net outlay of $336 to own the stock rather than $350 by exercising the call.
GTEC +.61 to 3.43, closing near the high of the day. I don't think this rally, which has roughly doubled the stock price in 3 days, has anything to do with fundamentals. It seems to me that the stock probably got pumped somewhere, perhaps on Reddit, by momentum players, and it's tough to predict how high they can push it .... in the recent case of VFS, the money losing Vietnamese EV company, the stock rose 700% in a mere 6 days to a high of $93 and is now down to $28, a drop of 70% in 4 days. It was strictly a low float trading frenzy that caused the action.
GTEC might have peaked today at $3.50, but on the other hand it could be heading over $4 on Monday .... I've sold about 40% of my position so far and feel comfortable with that, realizing that I can't predict the top and will likely be holding a bunch of shares when the stock inevitably retreats.
If it were easy to use technicals like RSI to predict a coming price reversal, then it would be easy to profit by selling short, but that's not the case.
VTLE 1.73 to 62.02, getting boosted by rising oil prices, now at the high for the year ....
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Reaches-New-2023-High.html
The August Jobs number this morning was encouraging ..... maybe we will get a "soft landing" ?
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/jobs-report-august-today-unemployment-economy-de847415?st=gh7txb2kxwos3re&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
GTEC +.33 to 3.15, I trimmed a few more shares but am being stingy with my sales in case this stock goes through the roof again as it did late in 2021 when it spiked to $12+ on huge volume .....
AMRK +41.19 to 38.31, I wasn't at my desk for the after hours or pre-market sessions, but would have gladly added in the $33's after that solid earnings report. Good to see the price target increase by Davidson.
AMRK +4.55 to 38.67 after posting strong June Q4 earnings and declaring a $1 special dividend - Annual EPS of $6.34 was up from $5.45 y/y -
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mark-precious-metals-reports-fiscal-200500819.html
DBGI is an extreme dilution machine and strictly a gravy train for management.
GTEC - I sold a few more shares after hours in the low $3's after it spiked to $3.30 .... I would have sold more but it quickly dropped back under $3. I still have around 2/3 of my position. Today's action has put it on the radar of momentum traders. We'll see what happens tomorrow.
GTEC +1.02 to 2.75, closing at the high of the day. Volume of 2.3M was 64x normal ! It will be interesting to see what it does tomorrow .....
GTEC +.69 to 2.42 on heavy volume of 1.1M. I can't find any news, but maybe there's a recommendation in a newsletter ? Or it could just be a technical breakout that's caught the attention of momentum traders.
I trimmed some shares, but am still holding most of my position. There was that remarkable heavy volume spike up to $12+ late in 2021 that momentum traders will see on the chart .....
I don't give the analyst estimates much credibility. They were way too low for Q1 and Q2 with estimates of (0.02) and 0.04 respectively while the actuals came in at $0.11 and $0.18. I think the company will handily beat the Q3 and Q4 estimates of 0.06 and 0.03. jmho
GTEC +.21 to 1.94 on heavy early volume of 164k .... it's getting noticed by traders and investors. Plenty of upside left when considering the low valuation and trading history. A year ago it was in the $3's and it spiked up to $12+ late in 2021.
The recent S&P correction was 5.9%, but it's bounced back nicely ..... we're in a very correction resistant market -
Trend Start Price Trend End Price Gain/Loss % Days in Trend
01/04/22 4818.62 01/24/22 4222.62 -12.4% 14
01/24/22 4222.62 02/02/22 4595.31 8.8% 8
02/02/22 4595.31 02/24/22 4114.65 -10.5% 16
02/24/22 4114.65 03/03/22 4416.78 7.3% 6
03/03/22 4416.78 03/08/22 4157.87 -5.9% 4
03/08/22 4157.87 03/29/22 4637.3 11.5% 16
03/29/22 4637.3 05/02/22 4062.51 -12.4% 24
05/02/22 4062.51 05/04/22 4307.66 6% 3
05/04/22 4307.66 05/12/22 3858.87 -10.4% 7
05/12/22 3858.87 05/17/22 4090.72 6% 4
05/17/22 4090.72 05/20/22 3810.32 -6.9% 4
05/20/22 3810.32 06/02/22 4177.51 9.6% 9
06/02/22 4177.51 06/17/22 3636.87 -12.9% 12
06/17/22 3636.87 06/28/22 3945.86 8.5% 7
06/28/22 3945.86 07/14/22 3721.56 -5.7% 12
07/14/22 3721.56 08/16/22 4325.28 16.2% 24
08/16/22 4325.28 09/06/22 3886.75 -10.1% 15
09/06/22 3886.75 09/12/22 4119.28 6% 5
09/12/22 4119.28 09/30/22 3584.13 -13% 15
09/30/22 3584.13 10/05/22 3806.91 6.2% 4
10/05/22 3806.91 10/13/22 3491.58 -8.3% 7
10/13/22 3491.58 11/01/22 3911.79 12% 14
11/01/22 3911.79 11/03/22 3698.15 -5.5% 3
11/03/22 3698.15 12/13/22 4100.96 10.9% 28
12/13/22 4100.96 12/22/22 3764.49 -8.2% 8
12/22/22 3764.49 02/02/23 4195.44 11.4% 28
02/02/23 4195.44 03/13/23 3808.86 -9.2% 27
03/13/23 3808.86 07/27/23 4607.07 21% 95
07/27/23 4607.07 08/18/23 4335.31 -5.9% 17
DBGI fundamentals are awful and they've now had a the equivalent of a 1 for 2500 reverse split in the past 10 months alone. Too funny !
DBGI +7.05 to 15.57 in pre-market on heavy volume of 1.2M. No news that I could find, but something must be spiking the stock higher !
Congratulations, are you taking some quick profits ?
VFS +18 to 87, the insanity continues .... options started trading today and the PUT premiums are astronomic. At the money PUTs expiring on 9/15 cost over 50% of the stock price !
ELTK +.26 to 8.45, I added a few shares this morning and placed a few GTC orders at lower prices ....
Wade: I'm not a market timer .... if I were, I would have missed out on lots of bull markets. There's always something to worry about, but usually the market goes up. Right now I'm about 85% in stocks and 15% in SGOV. Typically I'm around 95% invested and in the old days going back 20 years I was always 10% to 20% on margin.
VFS valuation is incredible -
Fortune Magazine -
VinFast Auto skirted the usual rigor of a conventional IPO in favor of an easier path to market via SPAC.
The Vietnamese startup that sold a grand total of 18,700 EVs in its six-year existence—some so poorly built they now are compensating angry customers—cleverly engineered its August listing to ensure there is barely any free float.
This disrupts the market’s traditional role as an instrument of price discovery, enabling VinFast to achieve on paper a $120 billion market cap that ranks it as the world’s third most valuable carmaker behind only Tesla and Toyota.
In the process, founder and chairman Pham Nhat Vuong’s net worth has skyrocketed virtually overnight. According to Forbes, he is now the 28th richest person on earth, right behind Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang.
NVDA is risky at $458 ..... reminds me of TSLA at $414 back in November 2021, nearly two years ago. TSLA is a great company but the valuation got too high. TSLA is now at $238, down 43% the past 21 months. Gross margins are under pressure from the competition. The same fate awaits NVDA, it's only a matter of time. AMD, GOOG. MSFT and AMZN are all working on AI chip design and they have deep pockets. The actual manufacturing is outsourced to semiconductor giant TSM, based in Taiwan, China.
VFS +11.40 to 60.40 on heavy early volume of 3.2M ..... the day traders are on a joyride, but it's a game of musical chairs some will become bag holders.
Even the classic IHUB view has been degraded over the years. I don't know who's doing the website design, but they need to hire someone else, ASAP.