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Match Race.....Week #25
GA up .20% for the week as bearish currencies and vol pos filled the sails. For the YTD +4.17%
ASAIX gained a bit of ground +.50% standing at -2.25% YTD. QGMIX had a great week (finally) +1.25% now at -3.75% YTD.
The track has turned to mud as the Brexit storm clouds opened up.
Grandfather Knows Best (Bexit).
Growing up in the 50's the show I watched every week was called Father Knows Best.
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/brexit-referendum/britain-s-brexit-how-baby-boomers-defeated-millennials-historic-vote-n598481
...looking at the nasty weather on voting day I thought the old baby boom mudders might pull it off as the mills rejected the surface, not wanting to get wet and all.
If you look at the Greek, Scotland, and UK vote the oldsters are 3 and 0--Gray Power.
Zero Assholes.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-24/dow-opens-down-500-points-jo-cox-lows-largest-gap-down-1986
..not nice at all substituting Cox for Cat. Beautiful woman dedicated to public service with a husband and two small children.
Shame on you!
+1 Day After BreX Grounding Index +224
Sore Losers--LOL
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/brexit-petition-for-second-eu-referendum-so-popular-the-government-sites-crashing-a7099996.html
...why not make it 66% or 75%. Too funny!
So Who Caused Brexit? Answer: Angela!
http://www.vox.com/2016/6/24/12024706/brexit-immigration-effect
...instead of throwing out a PC welcome mat to the unwashed, culturally incompatible African masses, Frau Merkel should have pulled up her jack-boots and interdicted them on the high seas sending them back after sinking the smugglers boats and shooting the captains.
On land razor wire fences running ten deep with land mines every so often would have stopped all but the most foolhardy.
But then how could Germany, given it's history and all, possibly do such a thing? Well they couldn't, and didn't, but in the end Europe (as we know it today) will unravel because they have a balless mother figure for a leader.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/shortcuts/2015/sep/01/mama-merkel-the-compassionate-mother-of-syrian-refugees
Fitting Given 200 Year Luddite Anniversary
...every couple hundred of years or so things should be shaken up. What did a Higgs Boson every do for anyone--lol.
http://www.vox.com/2016/6/24/12023772/brexit-vote-uk-science-terrified
I actually watched the show with all the top particle physicists in the world watching a screen as a couple of electrons had a head on collision at a half mile slower speed than the speed of light.
Poof...
They all stood up and cheered as whatever they looked at disappeared in a nanosecond. Billions spent for a nano of fun. A better use of money would be beer rations for the multitudes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Higgs_boson
What I'm Doing Today.
First moved 10% out of FXY and into UUP with UUP now being 60% of my currencies and FXY 40%.
Interesting that the LB (TLT) is still not a buy, but SLV if prices hold at current levels is.
If this is a gradual meltdown there will be time to buy as the slope of hope steepens. Look for this weekend to be one of endless soothing words out of the mouths of the ruling global elites and their lackey central banks.
At the close today I'll be 30% in risk-off currencies, 1% in VXX unhedged, and .5% in SLV.
This next week 'could' have me shorting Asia/Europe (EFZ) and free up to 2% VXX unhedged.
Even a Fortune Teller Gets it Right Occasionally.
Mid-day has the rocks rising up from the seabed now standing at +222.
UK Bookies 'Could' Well Have Been Manipulated.
It happens when markets which should be in sync can't arbitrage. An example is horse racing simulcasting from a small handle track with betting also at a Vegas book paying track odds.
Say the favorite at the local track is going off at 1:1, but a last second bet by partner 'a' on the second favorite raises the odds to 2:1. Assume it cost $10,000.
The betting partner 'b' in Vegas had down $50 k, knowing that 1:1 is a fair price but 2:1 is way better. They net $90k with the $10k loss at the local track subtracted. Best cash the ticket quick and skip town before they figure out what happened at the local track--lol.
Same thing in the UK, for a small amount of money the line on Brexit was moved with massive money then going into the pound and other risk-on assets. The betting market is chump change compared to the trillions in asset value.
Risk-on, Gobsmacked and Gutted.
Feeling solidarity with the Leavers I feel a bit of FAS coming on.
http://abcnews.go.com/Health/foreign-accent-syndrome/story?id=40071887
Here is a list of colorful British slang to learn.
http://www.lifehack.org/articles/lifestyle/simple-british-slangs-you-probably-should-start-using.html
Demographic Brexit Vote Breakdown.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/eu-referendum-how-the-results-compare-to-the-uks-educated-old-an/
Typical Brexit leave voter...old (+60), with less than a college degree, native UK'er, from working class background.
These folks, along with hundred of millions like them the world over, have been getting the short stick since 1971 with the rise of globalization/financialization via fiat currency.
Finally they rose up and said..."We're mad as hell, and we're not going to take it anymore."
This morning the global 1% got a nasty slap in the face telling them no more business as usual, things they are a changing.
UK Oldsters Stand in Rain to Vote Leave.
The Cox murder was a huge blow to leave, but the miserable voting conditions more than made up for it. Young people...read those with jobs...will vote if they know the lines are short and they won't be uncomfortable waiting.
Oldsters have nothing else better to do and take the bad conditions as a price to pay for voting.
We are now in a brave new world, which will be very interesting indeed.
Insane Price Action Today for SCS
...off over 10% premarket it rose to a positive for the day before settling off approx. 2%.
Second biggest trading day volume of the year as the bulls rushed in on the comment that SCS wasn't booking much out of the UK... blaming Brexit. But now that remain has supposedly won the booking should increase, or so the logic goes.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SCS&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=t60494409169&r=1466720320259
6/23/16 Grounding Index +109...and
at close of yesterday all TLT was sold leaving me with only 15% of UUP and FXY in the hole.
Markets are adjusting to the likelihood of a remain vote and have overshot as a result. Still the grounding index is positive but if it loses 50 points in a day it won't be long before I start charting a northern course to remain UK.
6/22/16 Grounding Index +154
SCS Loses over 9% Afterhours on Earnings Report
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/Stock/SCS
Complacency, Biggest Risk to Remains
My feeling (before the Cox murder) was that the markets would go into a swoon and scare the living daylights out of the X'ers and fence sitters.
But with Cox's death the markets have rallied back to the point from which they started the Leave meltdown.
Thinking the election won, and not being scared sh^&less over the markets, the remains could well suffer from complacency and not bother showing up at the polls.
SCS Price Broke Through 50 and 200.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SCS&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=t26499820261&r=1466540751454
...my favorite measure of global growth will report quarterly earnings tomorrow.
6/21/16 Grounding Index +173
... So Could Betting the Cubs Win the World Series.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-brexit-gold-bet-could-be-the-smartest-or-the-dumbest-ever-2016-06-21
Such claptrap, such a waste of electrons.
'Remains' Using Cox's Death
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/remain-campaign-chief-will-straw-accused-of-exploiting-jo-cox-murder-a3276401.html
...of course they would, with the pound continuing to rally.
6/20/16 Grounding Index +195
The Jo Cox Cable Rally
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-19/sterling-soars-above-146-stops-triggered-momentum-algos-ignited
...markets can turn on a dime and in the case of the risk-on pound they did. Interesting that FX values now predict a 88% chance for remain.
As the markets speak I must listen and will now fully hedge VXX with XIV and wait out Thursday.
Assassinations Change History.
...will Brexit go down to defeat because of the idiocy of a Brexiter?
http://www.businesspost.ie/pound-strengthens-as-jo-cox-murder-halts-brexit-momentum/
...Would serve the fool right. Since the moment the killing was reported the pound has been on a run
Possible Manifest Goods on the GA.
As the GA tracks south a possible listing of items in her hole would include:
FXY, UUP, TLT, VXX, EFZ, PSQ, DOG, and SLV.
As it stands going into Mondays opening FXY and UUP are fully loaded at 15% each, VXX stands at 2% w/ 4% max. TLT at 5% with a theoretical max of 100%, while EFZ, PSQ, DOG, and SLV stand collectively at 0%.
A bit over 1/3 of the GA's hole is full, but this next week could well see increases adding assets as the northern winds continue to blow the GA more towards Cape Town than Lisbon.
Two Out of Three Ain't Bad.
The long bond on Friday joined risk-off currencies sounding the warning of increased risk of running aground for all those who dare sail the northern route.
Global equity shorts have not followed vol pos into danger territory...as of yet.
EFZ is by far the closest and will most likely be added to the hole first, PSQ and DOG have been more resilient as the global equity rats have scrambled up to the high point thinking they'll be safe if Europe sinks.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/life/people/2016/06/17/meat-loaf-singer-collapses-stage/86023328/
...by the way 'Loaf' is doing well.
Great Comedy...Which is Truth Revealed.
It will all be in the rear view mirror, no matter what, in a few days.
Match Race.....Week #24
GA up .56% for the week as bearish currencies and vol pos filled the sails. For the YTD +3.96%
ASAIX gained a bit of ground +.08 standing at -2.74% YTD. QGMIX had another bad week (yet again) now at -5.00% YTD, losing another -.21% for the week.
6/17/16 Grounding Index +215.
Back From Colorado.
Had a great time taking along our ten year old granddaughter who experienced white water rafting, Pikes Peak, and the Royal Gorge for the first time.
Really didn't change much in the way of GA hole holdings except trimming back a bit on VXX after than wondrous day it jumped 15%.
Added a bit to TLT as the buy sign is coming very much into focus along with EFZ.
In sum the GA hole is full with it's allotment of currencies (FXY and UUP) but very little in the way of TLT and DOG/EFZ/PSQ.
HOWEVER THAT COULD CHANGE QUICKLY...
EFZ is very close along with TLT to triggering buy signals.
During my leave Fookie has weakened giving up 10%. Baltic Dry weakened a bit, and my main global growth indicator, SCS, has crossed both the 200 and 50 DMA lines. Brexit or no Brexit the world is looking globally sicker.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SCS&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=t24526385603&r=1466252109036
Good to be home, driving I-25 up from Colo. Springs is something I don't ever want to do again in this lifetime!
I'll Post Again in a Week.
...off to the mountains to escape the heat for a week. My remaining VXX purchases are a nick away from triggering so if Monday is a positive day for VXX I'll pick up my remaining 50% at the close.
Both EFZ and DOG are a ways away from a buy, but I'll monitor in case the world unravels.
TLT I might add a percent or two, again depending on price action.
Sub-Sahara Influx Shows No Signs of Slowing
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/06/10/2000-migrants-rescued-off-libyan-coast-taken-italy/
...again these migrants, once rescued, are assured asylum. Question is does Britain want to accepts it's fair share. Labour party is officially backing 'remain', but rank and file members are revolting over immigration fears.
Close, Take the Northern Route Grounding Index and Change the Sign for West/South sailing.
Thought for the Next Two Weeks.
...if the pound tanks and takes the global economy with it will that scare enough Brits to put their tale between their legs and vote remain?
In a best case scenario the pound maintains it's value and then collapse AFTER the vote...not before.
Going West (Global slowdown) All is Well.
...going north (risk on) the rocks keep poking higher off the ocean floor.
Almost had an all-in on VXX but it wiggled off the hook the last half-hour...as it usually does. I'm going into Monday with a 50% VXX exposure.
Today is day one. When DOG/EFZ becomes a buy I'll head due south (global collapse).
Match Race.....Week #23
GA up .14% for the week as bearish assets were added to the hole. For the YTD +3.40%
ASAIX gained a bit of ground at -2.74% matching the gain of the GA, but QGMIX had another bad week now at -4.79% YTD, losing another -.10% for the week.
ASAIX had a nice day on Friday, up .64%, as the market tanked, but QHMIX somehow found a way to lose another .10%. I've said it before and I'll say it again...I don't have a clue what QGMIX is holding. Unless they're long the pound/gilt/cable or whatever you want to call it.
I'm Sure it's Also Great for Removing Barnacles.
http://www.northerntool.com/shop/tools/product_200338103_200338103?cm_mmc=Google-pla&utm_source=Google_PLA&utm_medium=Construction%20%3E%20Painting&utm_campaign=Wagner&utm_content=4513041&gclid=Cj0KEQjwyum6BRDQ-9jU4PSVxf8BEiQAu1AHqle_zzQbDZDvbePXcB6LHGFnMgTs4UeqTV2kmn_ySccaAmnL8P8HAQ
The and I mean THE worst job about exterior painting is removing cracked/peeling paint!
NO MORE.
I'd pay 10x what I paid for the Wagner product. Make that 20x! It's that f&*king good.
One week and I'll be finished with the front tomorrow.
Going on another vacation starting Monday headed west to Colorado Springs/Canon City.
That is Specifically Why I'm Not Headed North.
6/10/16 Grounding Index +102