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SPX Wave Counts
Both counts start from the April '10 high as the end of the bear market rally. Neither count has been invalidated.
Bullish: Late may rally to present is a double zigzag wave 2 bounce. More rally ahead for the next week. This would result in a fibonacci time ratio about 60%
Bearish: Wave 3.3.3.. Down is underway. The 1+ day bounce is sufficient time proportionality.
Hope this link to SPX June '10 futures works.
http://charts.insidestocks.com/chart.asp?sym=SPM0&data=Z60&date=060910&den=MED&divd=n&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
Only A Little Bounce Today.
Today finished up last Friday's selloff, and started a corrective bounce. More choppy advance tomorrow.
Chubbie, Here's Why...
... you did not see a significant down day.
The SPX futures from Friday and today indicate Friday was motive down. Today actually finished that motive wave. The rest of the day was a zigzag correction, followed by another zigzag down. This evening the futures are making a motive rally. This completes a flat pattern correction. Tomorrow you should have your "more significant down day".
How significant? maybe more than 3%
http://charts.insidestocks.com/chart.asp?sym=spm0&data=Z15&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
AORD E-wave count
This count is more along the lines of my previous wave 1-2 scenario in the US markets. Instead of wave 1 ending at the low in May, I propose wave 1 ended at the early May low. Wave 2 is a completed flat. wave c of the flat was an ending diagonal and has very little overlap with wave 1. This is decided bearish. AORD should now be in smaller wave 1 of larger wave 3. A June swoon awaits those down under.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$AORD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p49368180055
INDU SPX fibonacci ratios
The price ratios of the past month and a half caught my attention late Friday.
I had as my primary count a motive wave starting in late April '10 and ending in late May '10. The rally into June '10 as a corrective wave. So far this wave has corrected 36% of the sell-off in less than 20% of the time. Under this wave count, more sideways correction with a push to 50% retracement levels would be appropriate. The rest of June would choppy and slightly up. This is a wave 1-2 count.
When considering this latest bounce corrects the sell-off following the "flash crash" rally, 47% has been retraced in more than 85% of the time. This indicates the probability is higher the bounce is finished. This wave count is 1-2, 1-2, 1-2, which makes 3 degrees of trend.
What makes me now favor the cascading wave 1-2 combinations is the amount of bounce after each decline. The first decline had nearly 90% retracement. The "flash crash" had 50-62% retracement. I've taken out some of the flash overshoot. The late May sell-off had almost 50% retracement. None of the retracements are triangles or flats. A triangle would signal one more sell-off leg before a retracement of a larger degree is to begin. Flats signal the beginning or ending of the longest subwave of a motive wave.
What we are looking at is a waterfall crash in progress. The question is how many degrees of 1-2 combinations will appear before the jaw-dropping 3-3-3-3-3... wave appears.
JLS - Good Catch
I was looking at the center of the Bollinger band and thought it was the 10 SMA. It was actually the 20 SMA. The rest of the moving averages are Daily SMA (simple moving averages).
Other SPX TA
The recent rally out of the May '10 lows ratraced a fibonacci 38-40% of the April-May selloff. The retracement has tried to climb above the 200 DMA, but has been repelled several times. The 10 DMA is a few points from dipping below the 200 DMA. Theprice was repelled by the 10 DMA yesterday. The lower bollinger band is opening up indicating a volatile move and downside support at much lower levels. Volume has shown a disinctive pattern of increasing with downside moves, and decreasing through bounces, a bear market trait.
While all of this is bearish, The duration of this corrective bounce isn't even 20% of the April-May selloff. Look for gaps and narrow trendlines to support a bearish position, or choppiness to support more bullish position.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p57148489116
Rally Complete
The spx futures completed wave 2c-zag, and then sold off hard.
Market Bounce 75% Complete
The SPX, INDU rally off last week's lows produced a clear intraday double zigzag (wave 2a) followed by a very choppy decline (wave 2b. Yesterday into today completed a single zigzag of wave 2c. the rest of the day should be choppy to the downside. Monday or Tuesday of next week is when the second zigzag of wave 2c completes.
The European markets have retraced much of the sell-off which tested the flash crash lows. I have to wonder if the European markets are correcting the entire May selloff, and the US is only retracing the late May sell-off. That would put the European markets in a 1-2 count, but the US in a (1-2)-(1-2) count.
SPX Double Zigzag almost complete.
Does the market tank from here, or does it pullback gently for a couple days and top out late next week / early 2 weeks from now?
The rollercoaster continues.
Looking at the futures, a bottom (wave b of 2 of 3) has been made. More choppy advances the rest of the week. Potential top early next week.
Markets Catch Support
Major US markets have completed a motive wave which began about 9 trading days ago. Expect 3 to 5 days of choppy advances before this dead-cat-bounce tops out.
The big picture has a bull and bear count.
The bull count is the slide from April '10 highs is corrective and a challenge to that top is under way.
The bear count is wave 2 of 3 has started.
SPX Futures are UGLY, but...
.. they look like they have made a wave 5 low pre-market, and will correct the rest of the week heading to the 10080 area.
SPX ED-warning
The intraday chart is showing Friday's bounce rally was only wave a zigzag. The rest of friday was wave b correction. Today is a zigzag. The zag is an Ending diagonal. This gives the wave count from Friday's low as a nearly finished double zigzag.
Since wave c zag is ED and 38% retracement, I am favoring a worse wave count of yet another wae 1-2 combo, not a wave 4 as previously favored.
SPX - INDU E-waves Challenging
Friday was definitely corrective. The rally made it close to the 38% area. The price is just under the upper intraday down sloping channel line from about May 13th.
The question is: Which degree did Friday correct?
Judging the channel lines, and the principle of alternation the wave count would be wave 5 down on Monday, and corrective rally the rest of the week for a wave which started at the SPX 1170 area.
The next more agressive count is Friday was a smaller degree wave 2, and next week will just bleed with more wave 1-2 combos, or finally unleash wave 3-3-3...
Drop Into Opening, Then Rally Higher to Close UP.
Blacktruck -ED? Doubt it.
The SPX still looks like a couple degrees of wave 1-2 combos. The bounce off today's lows looks like another wave 2 flat. It is a rarity (0.01% chance) for a motive wave to have two zigzags or two flats of the same degree. So the detection of at least two consecutive flats implies different degrees. Flats occur before or after the longest wave of the larger degree.
In other words, this is a prime crash set up.
SPX Futures Near Flash Crash Lows.
I'm not convinced the flash crash was human error or computer error. It's looking more like the quant algorithm was using an extremely strong, long-term "leading indicator". The lead time was about 2 weeks. The indicator must have been flashing a major sell signal that the action of selling caused a distortion in the market. Now all that is left is for the market to realize its own fear and generate another crash(es).
blacktruck - USD
From an e-wave standpoint the USD made another smaller degree wave 2. There are many degrees of wave 1-2 combinations in play. The USD stands a good chance of gapping up in the next 7 trading days.
SPX Intraday e-waves
Tuesday into today's low look motive. The bounce off the lows looks corrective. The window of opportunity using fibonacci ratios just opened for a the index to head lower. The window stays open tomorrow if the price has not broken today's lows.
SPX Futures Rebounding
I think this will be a false rebound. The futures look to be making wave c of wave 2 flat. 1120 is an upside target / reversal point.
The euro bounced off yesterday's lows in a zigzag fashion. Wave 3-3-3-3 about to unwind. At least one global market (AORD?) fell below the "flash crash" two weeks ago. The dollar pressed higher yesterday, and is going parabolic. Germany's naked shorting ban is disturbing not because it forces short covering, but because market participants are even less sure of the rules of the game. Without a firm set of rules, it makes forming a strategy very difficult, an added risk. None of this bodes well for global equity markets in the short or long run.
http://charts.insidestocks.com/chart.asp?sym=SPM0&data=Z15&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
Bliss, Minor Rally Time
The charts in todays US markets did make a nice rebound off the lows; however, the rally was very choppy. In some markets the price decline from Thursday's highs looks like a zigzag, in others a 5 segment motive wave. All markets show a widening, steep lower bollinger band, indicating further price decline is probable. Stochastics are oversold. So there are conflicting signs. Need more time to see a high probability set-up.
ED wave count played out -SPX Plunges
The SPX rebound from the Greek bailout tagged the 50 dma and was repelled. This morning's sharply lower opening pushed the lower bollinger band lower, allowing for the markets to drop to the 1120 area. OUCH!!!
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p62951209173
USD Blastoff
Today's close was above the print high of last week's Greek crisis. The currency market has not been calmed by the bailout. Here's something to consider: if the Euro Central Bank has placed bond vigilanties under close watch, are the bond vigilanties becoming currency vigilanties? The ECB can't buy their own currency to support it with freshly printed Euros or loans like they plan to do with sovereign debt.
Since prices of tresuries AND gold AND the USD are rising, there is more of a flight out of Euros than a flight out of dollars.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p84662822321
FTSE and AORD indicate UK is next crisis
The FTSE is about a third of the way from the 200 DMA to the 50 DMA.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$FTSE&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p46972455993
The AORD is hasn't even risen above the 200 dma.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$AORD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p95468820815
The German and US markets are at or above the 50 dma. So the UK is significantly lagging.
SPX INDU looking more like an ED every minute
RUT and NDX have a different pattern.
Computer trading should pick up on this and premptively dump shares ;)
DAX is catching up to SPX wave count.
DAX finishing wave C
SPX futures are up, but finish a really small double zigzag. Open higher, then finishing much lower.
Chuck -Agree a near term top is in.
One of the clues about the larger market is volume increased into the low last week, and the rally is on decreasing volume. This is typical dynamics in a larger downtrend.
The charts would still look better with the markets in 4% range for another week. The lows should be retested. 3 days does not feel like the right amount of time to correct the decline from the April 2010 high. Could make for some nice trading.
DAX and FTSE Intraday Comments
Earlier today the DAX and FTSE opened down from yesterday's massive rally. Presently both markets are rallying off their daily lows and challenging today's opening. I think the same thing will happpen in the US markets today.
Market Futures are UP-UP-UP
Unfortunately there is a good chance a pop and drop is in play. The wave counts for the NDX, SPX, INDU futures indicate the computer glitch was part of a wave 5, and the markets were gong to make a corrective move. The futures are just below the fibonaccci 62% retracement of the larger wave the crash was part of.
Fundamentally, the world has seen the uselessness of the financial rescue and bailouts in the US. The EU approach is no different. C'mon, how can the EU "defend" the euro by printing more of them? Fool me once... If the EU does successfully prevent wolfpacks of bond shorters, then nobody will cover as the prices of bonds drop to the printing of euro's. This situation is even more unstable than letting Greece default and its lenders taking a hit. With fewer euro's on the books, the remaining ones should become more valuable in theory.
Gold, Treasuries AND Dollar Rally Hard, Oil collapses
From a fundamentals point of view, today represents a safe haven play from defaulting foreign/private debt/euro and slowing global economy. This is all DEFLATIONARY.
From a socionomic view, and quant or plunge protection team action will be short lived. The larger mood is PANIC.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p54020042299
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p21910250169
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p09847560275
Looks like top in for WTIC, DIG
I didn't have enough time to transfer $$$ to my trading account to catch the reversal in DIG/DUG. I'm not going to chase it either, especially when the chance of bank or market closures could result in no return of capital.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DIG&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p85678274262
Last Week SPX Intraday E-wave
Last Monday high into Tuesday low was clearly motive.
Last Wednesday low into Thursday high looks more corrective than motive.
Last Thursday high into Friday low looks motive.
Since Friday's low did not come close to taking out Tuesday's low, I'm counting the Thursday-Friday selloff as a smaller degree. Today should be a smaller degree correction compared to last Tuesday-Wednesday's rally.
It looks like a large wave 1-2, small wave 1-2 situation is developing and more downside later through this week.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spx&time=&freq=
Greece is the word
The Athens exchange shows a waterfall pattern for the month of April '10. The longer term E-wave indicates things are going to get much worse.
The Athens market bear market rally out of the March '09 lows coincided with the rest of the world. It ended in October '09 while the rest of the world has continued to advance.
The Athens WAVE C has started.
Wave 1 Oct '09 to Dec '09
Wave 2 December '09 to March '10 a flat correction. wave c was an ending diagonal.
Wave 3 March '10 to incomplete. Several wave 1-2 combinations have started. waves 3-3... are about to unfold, starting maybe next week.
Elliot Wave has a slightly different count, but still more downside to go.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$ATG&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p43384570728
PT - FED fed Rally
Earlier this year I performed a spectral analysis on the INDU. One of the most jaw-dropping things I saw were all sinusoids at or less than 650 days shot staight up in March '09. That was one massive stimulus. The 650 day sinusoid was bottoming and if the FED could have waited until April or May '09, then no questionable actions would have been taken. Now that the market spectrum is very distorted on the longer sinusiods, and small FED injections will distort the short term sinusoids, I have stopped trying to perform spectral analysis and am keeping money on the sidelines.
DIG Has Same E-waves as XLE
Top is extremely close. Get ready to buy DUG (2x short of DIG)Major volume in DUG the past week, signals capitulation bottom.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DUG&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p41481808968
TOL - Another clear E-wave count
Wave A Double zigzag, Top in 2005 to January 2008
Wave B Symmetric Triangle, January 2008 to present, now in late stages of wave e. Time-wise Wave A = Wave B.
Wave C Predict Double zigzag and target price below $5, if still in business.
Wave B
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TOL&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p65896971222
Waves A and B, use decade range and weekly bars.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=tol&time=&freq=
More Oil Comments.
Bliss,
We're looking at different "oil" charts. I'm looking at price per barrel; however, your attention is on XLE, the energy sector. I took a look at XLE for the E-wave count, and it is VERY clear.
Wave A, Zigzag, May 2008 to March 2009
Wave B, Triangle in wave e, March 2009 to Present.
Wave C, Prediction: Zigzag that ends in the $20 to $35 area. This is deflationary!
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLE&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p94521869652
End of Oil Rally?
The sharp pullback in oil the past couple of days indicates a double zigzag from the February 2010 lows is complete. $78 would confirm the second leg of the oil bear market has started.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p48930164716
Market Top Within Predicted Window.
I've been working on a market predicting approach based on modeling sinusoids like Hurst, and correlation. I found a window between now and 30 days in the future when the top of a 650 to 700 day period sinusoid occurs. The amplitude is around 2500 points on the Dow, which means a potential 5000 point drop over the next 300 trading days.