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Price to sales ratio based on 2014 run rate of 100 mil is 1.3
Price to sales ratio based on futuristic goal run rate of 160 mil is .8
Any trading like a grocery chain with penny margins.
Agreed... the sooner uninformed, nervous retail investors are removed the better imo... DD lite just won't cut it in this environment. Between last week's SA spoof and this week's CC snafu regarding q&a... spiffy dumped some weak investors.
All the while we have azure using gw to containerize apps in cloud; jkatcher tweeting participation on call Monday to see what gw can do for Google education; gw approved for education testing; v3 testing very well against competition in 10-20+ billion vdi space; rdx new and improved selling like hotcakes amid a revival in tape use as per reseller in south Africa; announcement of subscription service for gw beginning in education at 15 to 200 per, annual, renewable with millions of students; promark relationship which helped build nutanix to 200 mil run rate in 11 quarters in hyperconverged space; dockers with Linux container space and S3D with windows and all non-linux legacy apps (I like the way the spoils were divided in that peace treaty); throw in Novarad, Ericsson, Atos, mobotix... and the price per share drops... can you say short games and weak retail? ...simply surreal...
Yes and Yes.
And it's goggles move now. They cannot allow MSFT to have ANY to itself.. it is no accident JK participated in call with S3D TODAY per his tweet... S3D management is dancing with elephants... jmo...
Yes and Yes.
And it's goggles move now. They cannot allow MSFT to have ANY to itself.. it is no accident JK participated in call with S3D TODAY per his tweet... S3D management is dancing with elephants... jmo...
Anyone notice reference to promark during CC... unnamed reseller for hyperconverged systems in US... Promark has played a big role in the rise of nutanix.... just saying...
Glassware the ubiquitous. Gw available through the cloud for both legacy and windows software on subscription basis. Seriously! This is huge!!! Talk about the lead getting buried. It begins with the education vertical, but it will not end there.
#GWtheubiquitous
Outstanding post. I agree. Margins are good and likely to only get better as GW becomes larger part of revenue. Increased revenue, improved margins and profitability will drive valuation moving forward.
Yes. Both theme and strategy. Funny how recent SA article tried to revive the ancient bear argument of these guys as promoters and ANY as a scam... this crew is soooooo NOT promoters... and ANY is soooooooooooooo NOT a scam.
15 to 200 is a range... charges based on what clients use... both 15 and 200 will be outliers... average somewhere in the middle closer to 15 than 200... given the increased efficiencies of GW I am confident S3D will be very competitive in their pricing such that a heavy user paying upwards of 200 will be pleased with both performance and price... jmo
Reference to promark. Discussion of hyperconverged. Glassware. Initial 3 revenue breakout categories. Some good stuff here imo. Will try to share more tomorrow.
One more for tonight... just a reminder that if we look only at S3D numbers sans OVRL for the entirety of 2014... S3D compares favorably to VMWARE over first four quarters of monetization. It's easy to forget how early spiffy is in monetization process....
Rev ramp likely to take hockey stock form... jmo... glta...
So let's start with this. Prior guidance 9 mil for q4. Actual exceeded by half a mil. EK made a point of mentioning it exceeded... I continue to suggest this is their very intentional strategy to exceed guidance or stated goals. 160 mil is floor, not ceiling imo...
Just listened to the CC... didn't experience the adverse reaction of some... found a few things I liked and will share as opportunity allows.
Excellent post! Thanks for taking the time.
The bulk of current revs is ovrl... the ramp of future revs will be driven by gw, which is only in its 5th quarter of monetization.
Agree with all that you write and yet maintain my own set of expectations.
"We closed it out with a bang" & finished with "strong financials"... thanks for posting for review. Interesting to see if those phrases translate to financial report.
For me this would be fine surprise to the upside.
Lol... yes wildly, flagrantly optimistic... please consider it my wag... 12 months from now we will know whether or not I had a clue.
I lean toward your view as well... would love to be surprised to the upside... hopefully we get clarification re q4 numbers including 2 months of OVRL before merger completion.
ANY + OVRL = 50 mil q2 & q3 2014 for 100 mil annualized run rate....
That is my baseline for evaluating fully merged entity in 2015....
appreciate opportunity to clarify...
I expect eoy run rate to be 2 to 5 times q2&3'14 run rate of 100 mil...
You are correct. Management did not say this is a minimum or a floor. I have said this, and other posters also. I am confident 160 mil is floor, not ceiling.
Agreed. Friday clearly demonstrated that whales have been feeding and there is little to no fear in the long camp. This in combo with cusip is not good news for bears.
GW and V3 being integrated into Overland product solutions in fully merged company....
Agreed. Looking forward to first CC and first financial report of merged entity. I expect management to do well. Yet stealth remains in play here. Doubt we get the specificity we desire. Bears will spin negative. Will be surprised if q4'14 fully turns the tide. Though not at all surprised if it leads to next leg up.
q1'15 will give us clear baseline of fully merged entity and indication of revenue ramp. q2'15 further indication of revenue ramp and maybe first hint of future profitability... jmo... glta...
It is unlikely ANYone gets more than one (sometimes two) question responses. Even more unlikely we get the specificity and complete clarity we desire. Yet that is a great list of questions.
Very clear he hasn't test driven glassware. So he doesn't understand what it does and isn't in a position to make educated comparisons between dockers and GW. The rest of the article was decent, but if you don't get GW, then you don't get ANY...
Awesome job Donk and all!!!
I can accept that some of the volume has been manufactured and some of the increase is very real trading...
I found Friday's trading to be fabulous. What with the hit piece, the initial take down and the rally that followed ending in a little green.
It is clear to me that over the past month there has been a significant transfer of shares from weaker retail investors to larger more seasoned investors... short shenanigans are no longer having the same impact. Frustrating-Friday for shorts. Fabulous-Friday for longs. Jmo... glta...
I can accept that some of the volume has been manufactured and some of the increase is very real trading...
I found Friday's trading to be fabulous. What with the hit piece, the initial take down and the rally that followed ending in a little green.
It is clear to me that over the past month there has been a significant transfer of shares from weaker retail investors to larger more seasoned investors... short shenanigans are no longer having the same impact. Frustrating-Friday for shorts. Fabulous-Friday for longs. Jmo... glta...
So q1'15 will be reported no later than 5/15/15 and if the revenue figure is $25 mil, then that would show flat sales from 2014 q2 & q3... that would be disappointing and as such would not warrant a very favorable price to sales revenue... so maybe at that point a price to sales ratio between 1 and 2 (where we are at today) might be all we get...
I expect to see the beginning of the revenue ramp in the q1'15 sales figures... maybe we get 30 mil q1... that would be an annualized run rate of 120 mil... a modestly robust increase of 20% in sales... and should warrant a 4:1 price to sales ratio which is no more than average... imo...
from there the math is as so...
120 mil x 4 = 480 mil/35 mil = 13.71 as a reasonable price target come end of May following a financial report demonstrating 30 mil in sales in q1'15...
if we get significantly higher than that in terms of quarterly revenue, then ANY may get a premium price to sales ratio of 6-10, which would raise the numbers quite a bit higher...
8/15/15 is when i expect the real fireworks to begin...
I find this to be a very good day for the long thesis. Having seen the best the bears can offer is strikingly revealing. It's all up to revenues now to drive the train... the one thing i agree with the bears on is i don't expect much from q4'14 on Monday (hope i am wrong)... q1'15 and especially q2'15 will tell the tale...
if we use the annualized run rate for the combined entities of S3D and Overland from q2 and q3 2014 we have a run rate of 100 mil heading into the merger... if we use the "goal" (floor) guided by the company of 160 mil... we get a price to sales ratio range of something on the order of 1.6:1 or 1:1... roughly... both well below industry standards of 4:1 or industry premiums on the order of 6:1 to 10:1... so this is frankly an absolutely dreadful short idea, which even the author is forced to admit in the comments section of his SA article... and the current risk for longs entering at this price is highly mitigated...
i still have 8/15/15 circled on my calendar... jmo... glta...
Just so all longs are clear... the SA article hitting your computer screen today is designed to do one thing... separate the retail investor from his or her shares of ANY. It's desperation is matched only be its length. The author leaves out nearly every material development of the last 18 months and heavily skews (to the point of untruth) to the negative the few he discusses. His article is clearly targeted to the ill-informed investor in S3D - the one who practices due diligence lite...
If I were Cyrus Capital I might consider a lawsuit for defamation... he makes ol' Cyrus out to be a fool dumping good money after bad over and over... poor ol' crazy uncle Cyrus... yeah... crazy like a fox...
I found the article oddly comforting... seriously... is this the best the bears can offer??? if so, we are going to be just fine... jmo... glta...
160 mil eoy revs is floor not ceiling. Shorts hate that, but it's reality. They are running out of time and growing increasingly desperate. The vapidity of the SA article is striking and reeks of desperation.
Favorite phrase from linked article "virtualization of everything". Glassware ANYone? Sure I'll have a glass. Make that 2.0.
#glasswaretheubiquitous
#S3DisBASFofIT
Excellent find. Spot on for spiffy. Right solutions at the right time. Thanks for posting this.
Knock, knock.
Who's there?
Google.
Sorry, come back Monday. I've got to take ancient history to emergency. He's very disoriented.
The SA hit piece would have still been bogus if it had been posted 18 months ago. But at least back then it wouldn't have also been utterly irrelevant and outdated. Microsoft. Azure. Google. Dell. Promark. Novarad. Atos. Ericsson. Mobotix. New Caney. CCPS. Bramfitt. Katcher.
Post of the day!
Looks to me like top three trends are right in Spiffy's wheelhouse...