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Clearly not if he can lend Elite money. Probably from the Adderall/Elite split ownership.
We all make our buy and sell decisions, but the future has never looked brighter for the company. Best of luck
On similar note, if we can get solid BE for Concerta that is going to pass muster with FDA after Concerta generics were pulled, it will be a similar position as among first with Generic OxyContin. I believe this was referred to when Nasrat said a pilot or BE study will be done in the fall or next year depending on bed availability and other factors.
Agreed
OxyContin is simply a controlled version of Oxycodone Hcl.
Oxycodone Hcl is not bigger than Adderall ER/IR. Check your sources. Not even close. It is potentially coming off patent, but no approvals until FDA gives green light and companies survive legal gauntlet from Purdue.
Worked for the government. That explains everything.
I think you might be overthinking this. When doing interim placement you look for exact skills. Odds are that these consultants are solely focused on the accounting and SEC reporting. Elite could bring in more talent for transition to NASDAQ, but you have to realize that the cost of interim consultants is usually 2-3x the cost of a FTE in finance, sometimes more depending on the need and market. NASDAQ isn’t their focus yet.
Who is insinuating a P&D? If it was, you’d see Elite do press releases on every channel, insiders would be selling. Company has real products with real rev and profitability. It’s been a slow slog with this leadership and Covid, but the trend will continue, but only now at a faster clip.
Commentary may have minimal impact if any since all buyers/sellers are retail. You do see commentary effect stocks on other exchanges so other exchanges aren’t immune, but exchanges ring stability with diversity of buyers/funds beyond retail. We’re getting closer to when that day makes sense. Not yet.
You’d be surprised what people will say or detail they will go into during reference calls. My guess is Elite used staffing firms that did the reference checks for them and asked different questions than Elite would have.
It’s also why you thoroughly check references and ask questions.
It’s a financial restatement exercise. The comparison to last year would need to be apples-to-apples. All wording in Q’s and K gets adjusted so it can be a lot of work ensuring commentary aligns with financials. They will dictate that Jan is beginning of fiscal year and include same comparison for prior year. The fiscal year will always have 4 quarter’s worth of info, for both current and prior year. I see your point, but they don’t report a shortened year. The months within the reported fiscal year just change.
I didn’t think they were going to go interim finance route, but thrilled they did. Probably more reliable than CFO talent they have had for years.
Discount rate is wildly off here for an OTC stock. This should have been closer to 18%+ back then or even higher now considering the interest rate environment. Market returns expected are historically ~11%. Elite would be considered above average risk and therefore much higher discount rate would apply. This is also why banks either wouldn’t lend to Elite or have such high lending requirements and strings attached.
No, Nasrat is referring to the termination date with Lannett and Elite being ready from day 1 to run their own sales/distribution.
There is only brand oxy sold, so yes. It will exclude generic since it is currently non-existent in the market. IQVIA is not a forward looking sales figure.
That’s a very valid question. The $5.1B figure would exclude any generics as they were just approved and IQVIA wouldn’t have any generic data included, but by how much does the total market potential decrease because of the significant shift away from branded to lower price generic? 30%, 40%? I haven’t researched this, but there may also be some volume shift to generic Vyvanse to stabilize CNS market.
On separate but similar note, Oxy will be in the same boat is it potentially shifts to generic, however, we know Elite is among first filers and may indeed be the first to file. We will know soon enough.
Nasrat has mentioned his interest in Isradipine a couple of times. I recently saw the same addiction research being done. It’s been researched for many years starting with those addicted to cocaine, but believe it’s also being researched for smoking/alcohol, which would be a needle mover.
I believe less than 1% traded yesterday, so 0.6%. There’s over a billion shares outstanding. Capital structure will get further cleaned up in time, per the last cc.
Volume was virtually non-existent midday through rest of session.
Tu devrais être le vraiment jour trader.
OxyContin is less than $1B market and is 1 of the 3, but first time potentially going generic. I think it’s ~500M-600M total market. Total market come down quite a bit over the years.
I agree. It’s all branded pricing right now.
Today brings such sweet sorrow. Soon, Jammy will be departing the station.
Major blocks of common shares are sold in private placement deals to investment firms. Nasrat doesn’t own a controlling amount, but he does own a huge amount of shares to significantly influence any vote. I don’t think private placement is the route Nasrat would go. I think he’s looking to sell the whole enchilada when the time is right. I think that might be several years away when we can get some serious cash flow to start acquiring products and really get R&D pipeline cooking.
No one. If there was a bona fide offer it would be a material event and disclosed.
I think the 1.5-2x XR did not include AG deal with Prasco. I could be wrong, but I would expect much more revenue to come from this partnership than what we were previously doing with ER under Lannett.
I’m hoping to hear initial FDA response re: oxy by mid-year depending on when clock started for PDUFA (May/Jun 2024?), assuming no CRLs/issues.
Maybe a newbie buys into this, but almost every single point can be refuted for an OTC stock, especially Elite.
Will the company get acquired? Absolutely. Are any of the signs listed in the article pointing to a near-term acquisition? Absolutely not.
1. Management stops defending stock price. When has Elite ever defended the stock price? Mgmt says it is low, but there is no existant investor relations team other than Dianne collecting questions for call. That’s it.
2. Social media posts are bearish. Elite has no social media coverage. So this doesn’t apply.
3. Wild fluctuations in share price. Elite finally had a good call, maybe even 2 in a row. It’s driving some decent volume after many years without a pulse. Not a sign of an acquisition here, but rather that it’s not completely dead.
4. Large amount of phantom premiums - OTC is Wild West. So I’ll align with this, but only because regulations are much looser for OTC, but again not a sign of acquisition, it’s the norm.
5. Sneaky options trade: N/A for Elite
6. Sell this/buy that on message boards - sure, everyone has an opinion and they all stink. Nothing new on a message board.
7. Bizarre price action before milestone. See point 3.
8. Resignations of high level managent. Elite can’t keep a CFO around, but I’m leaning towards conflict with the CEO more than anything.
9. Unloading of assets: N/A unless you count vigabatrin. But this is more around whether it aligns around what CEO wants Kirko to sell and this didn’t fit that wheelhouse. Not sure why this ANDA was pursued.
10. Stock has become disconnected from reality. Again, see point 3. Stock has been hammered for years due to massive amount of dilution, lack of anything of significant financial benefit, non-arms length deals with the CEO, etc.
Not sure live Q&A is a requirement. If sell-side analysts covered it, then they would push for it. I know one public company that only held one live annual cc, didn’t hold quarterly cc’s at all and that was their cadence for years. I’d be shocked if live Q&A was a requirement on NASDAQ. Live Q&A promotes dialogue to ensure analysts understand financials for their modeling and targets, but would doubt it is a requirement.
I could be misremembering, but I think avg for Elite has been closer to 3 months. I’ll try to look at history this weekend.
You think it will be filed that quickly? I was expecting late Nov/Dec, again, only if results were positive.
Holding ground much better than I would have anticipated without the BE results disclosure. Enjoy the near and mid-term ride.
No, I don’t think so. Baseline will be higher and continue to lift as material news takes place. Expecting some crazy share price swings for balance of the year.
Figured you would have deleted this after volume has been drying up. Down day continuation was a no brainer.
Margin account is different. Platform you are on is taking the risk that your trades properly close out during the T + X window. If anything does happen you simply get a call/notification similar to a margin call to find the account $X.
No generic availability since it’s not off patent yet, but others have already filed. We’re not first in line. Would be a year out at least when including prep to file + FDA review + launch.
Vyvanse and Concerta already have generic competition. That’s not news.
Wasn’t Derek = Couch?
Simply a waste of time, but to each their own. There is nothing expected to be approved for couple more months. Even then, those are table scrap ANDAs.