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um, yeah, i know. although futures are trading almost continuously, so if you're not trading in size, u're not really dealing with gaps as you are with stocks.
but qqq isn't quite a single stock ... and i can't imagine that ndx futures weren't tracking qqq rather closely ... or vice versa, i suppose ...
but i guess my point is: there aren't any unfilled gaps on the indices. gaps down were all filled and mostly exceeded, and most within 1-2 days.
Combined CME-CBOT Open Interest Breaks 50 Million Contract Level
CME Clearing House More Than Doubles Cleared Volume in Less Than One Year
CHICAGO, May 11, 2004 – Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. (CME) today announced that combined open interest in Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) contracts, both managed by the CME Clearing House, has surpassed the 50 million contract mark for the first time.
A total of 50,171,122 contract positions – 37,999,200 in CME contracts and 12,171,922 in CBOT contracts – were outstanding at the close of the May 7, 2004 trading session. The combined open interest climbed even further following the close of the May 10 trading session to a total of 50,351,444. Open interest represents the number of contract positions that are outstanding – or open – at the end of a trading session.
CME’s Clearing House, the largest futures clearing organization in the world, began providing clearing services for all CBOT products on Jan. 2, 2004. It currently manages more than twice as many futures and options on futures contracts than any other futures clearing organization in the world, and over 90 percent of all U.S. futures contracts.
On May 7, 2004, CME’s Clearing House processed a total of more than 11 million CME-CBOT contracts, which was more than two and a half times the level of any single day’s cleared volume in just the past year.
“The CME Clearing House flawlessly cleared the extraordinary trading volume generated during Friday’s trading session,” said Clearing House President Kimberly Taylor. “That the CME Clearing House has been able to accommodate this dramatically increased volume is a testament to the combined efforts of many industry participants.”
Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. (www.cme.com) is the largest futures exchange in theUnited States. As an international marketplace, CME brings together buyers and sellers on its trading floors and GLOBEX® electronic trading platform. CME offers futures and options on futures primarily in four product areas: interest rates, stock indexes, foreign exchange and commodities. The exchange moved about $1.5 billion per day in settlement payments in the first quarter of 2004 and managed $38.1 billion in collateral deposits at March 31, 2004. CME is a wholly owned subsidiary of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings Inc. (NYSE: CME), which is part of the Russell 1000® Index.
goodness. what country am i living in? Fearless Leader is at it again ... no wonder they wouldn't let these guys testify at that padilla trial. can't let the world hear about interrogation methods.
Harsh C.I.A. Methods Cited in Top Qaeda Interrogations
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/05/13/politics/13DETA.html?ei=5062&en=f4df7ec51a3252e0&ex=108502...
[...]
"There was a debate after 9/11 about how to make people disappear," a former intelligence official said.
The result was a series of secret agreements allowing the C.I.A. to use sites overseas without outside scrutiny.
So far, the Bush administration has not said what it intends to do over the long term with any of the high-level detainees, leaving them subject to being imprisoned indefinitely without any access to lawyers, courts or any form of due process.
Some officials have suggested that some of the high-level detainees may be tried in military tribunals or officially turned over to other countries, but counterterrorism officials have complained about the Bush administration's failure to have an "endgame" for these detainees. One official said they could also be imprisoned indefinitely at a new long-term prison being built at Guantánamo.
I think they rallied 'cause more money came in to buy than money came in to sell.
well everything started after that big negative tick (-900+) at 13:50, and then the tick kept climbing, staying in the 600-1400 range for quite a while.
ya can't beat the computers. i will bend like a reed in the wind.
TIME TO BUY?
hey, i think this (and the upcoming ipos) are the best sign that the next rally is the last ... maria's not going to make the same mistake as in 2000, when she was riding high but stuck with cnbc and has been stuck there ever since. exit strategy!
She said Wednesday she was leaving CNBC's morning show, "Squawk Box," to concentrate on other duties at CNBC and NBC.
gad, this woman ... the only time i ever saw her show was earlier this week, when she was pretty downright nasty to ralph nader (i guess that's her way of being a "hard hitting" interviewer), but then - right afterwards - she interviews this magician (some "mentalist" guy) and is all gaga about his superpowers(tm). what kind of show is this anyway? is like oprah winfrey doing nightline.
I don't know, this latest drop came on some gap downs so unless you started shorting 2/3 weeks ago there wasn't many profits to be had.
i dispute this!! e.g. look at qqq on a 60-min chart since 5/5. its like a sawtooth in a declining channel of width about 1 point. we zoom to the top, then zoom to the bottom, sometimes with gaps, and with a period of about 1 day.
so overall, the channel's been declining and they've been slamming everyone against both extremes. but the shorting opportunities have been as good as the long ones.
i've been adding and taking profits from an open qqq short position all this time. but what's left still has an average price of 35.8. i was tempted to short the close here (actually a.h. at 35.3, which makes a nice straight line with the previous highs of the last two weeks, but ... well, tomorrow is thursday before options expiry week, so i usually expect it to be ... well, something like today, actually ... trending and sudden reversal near the close. plus then there's intel and dell. a good excuse for something.
anyway, i'm playing cautious here. if dropping commodity prices have had a noticeable effect on ppi already, that could be motivation for a rally in the a.m. and that would fit in nicely with a rally into intel and dell and maybe a gap and crap friday ...
wow, that global warming movie looks great.
so did i see that u shorted qqq at the close? u still have it?
interesting, the trinq never came below 1.5. maybe has something to do with the monster volume on qqq and smh. (qqq looks to be 200mm+)
ppi tomorrow am.
fed, here's the story of how at&t wireless's project to implement number portability blew up, largely because of outsourcing:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1126997/posts
i remember reading a few articles on "the real cost" of outsourcing at http://cfo.com
news of oursourcing (and reactions) are often on http://www.fuckedcompany.com . e.g. trilogy just sent all of their software jobs to india, and shell is outsourcing $1bln. (layoffs seem pretty heavy here in lesser companies ...)
hehe. yeah, i know, i know. i remember watching zeev during the decline in the summer of '02. someone likened it to "chasing nickles on the freeway". but that's what you're stuck with, i guess, if you don't short ...
"When markets fall like this, I can't help but lick my chops (just a figure of speach) waiting for the inevitable rebound."
hmm. well as shaeffer pointed out monday, there isn't a whole lot of short interest out there in many stocks to sustain these moves up. and with the carry trade unwinding, you're going to have to find real buyers - rather than just speculators - to help sustain the next rally. and with interest rates projected to be up and rising within the next 6 months, any investor is going to be looking for cheap stocks at a significant discount to today's multiples. i think your chop licking is premature.
anyone wanna bet on a bearish engulfing on intc?
i hope so
what a boring time of night. 1/2 hr infomercial on chlorox bleach. blah.
short @ 16?
well, so far, europe looks like it wants to give up yesterday's gains. ft talking about oil worries.
wow, 1412 already? i guess europe doesn't watch nazdog as closely as the guys on this board. the perception in reuters and ft seems to be that the rally 'fizzled out' yesterday.
hmm, the numbers don't seem to agree with vto (which also has an epc chart).
http://www.vtoreport.com/sentiment/putcall.htm
"Ex-cash/ST inv. ($3.50/shr)"
where is this number from? from yahoo i see ~8.5B cash+st/inv which is under $1.5/share (6.5B shares). down from 12.5B cash+st/inv last year. thestreet.com postulates that folks don't like the $3B buyback.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=CSCO&annual
"... with a book-to-bill of 1?"
and a stronger dollar ...
dunno. though i've been short smallcaps via ucpix.
shaeffer's rationale for switching to long-term bearish today
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/observations.aspx?ID=10106
Long-Term Posture Update
Bernie Schaeffer
5/10/2004 4:59 PM ET
What have I been saying?
If you've been following my market commentaries in recent months, it's no secret that I've had major concerns about the depth and breadth of the potential risks and the high degree to which Wall Street strategists, money managers, and economists have been willing to ignore those risks. The following excerpt from my April Option Advisor market commentary captures the essence of my cautious approach to the market over the last several months:
...there are many real risks right here and now, both global and company specific, that are being given short shrift these days by the "there will be no hurricane tomorrow" crowd:
1. A major terrorist attack
2. A collapse of the dollar
3. Stagflation
4. A derivates-based financial accident
5. A real estate bust
6. New corporate scandals
7. A debt-induced recession
In addition, our Option Advisor newsletter commentaries have (on more than one occasion this year) addressed longer-term technical concerns for the stock market, specifically the potential for major resistance around the 1,150 area on the S&P 500 Index (SPX). We viewed this area as critical in part because it is the site of the 80-month moving average, a trendline that acted as support on a monthly closing basis in September 2001. This area is also the site of the 2002 high as well as the 50-percent retracement from the March 2000 peak to the October 2002 low. Despite numerous assaults on 1150, this level held steadfastly as resistance.
I had maintained a "neutral" long-term posture on the market, as I viewed the huge shorting activity in such ETFs as the Nasdaq-100 Trust (QQQ), S&P Depository Receipts (SPY) and Diamond's Trust (DIA) as a source of potential demand and as tinder for short-covering rallies. I also respected the fact that money managers were enjoying a huge influx of cash from mutual fund investors that was being put to work to support the market.
Ironically, it was these huge mutual-fund inflows that rivaled those of early 2000 that was also a serious concern, as major market peaks usually occur when investors feel most comfortable and ignore the dangers that are lurking.
What am I saying now?
Now, I'm taking firmer action on my cautious views by switching from a long-term neutral posture to a long-term bearish posture. Why now?
1. One of the major sources of potential demand has been muted; specifically enormous short interest in the ETF's discussed above. For example, in the latest reporting period, the Diamond's experienced a 24-percent decrease in short interest, while QQQ and SPY experienced declines of 24 percent and 28 percent, respectively.
2. Despite the combination of short covering and the huge cash inflows into equity mutual funds, the market could not take out key resistance levels and the price action has further deteriorated.
3. It has become clearer that 1150 on the SPX is indeed a major long-term resistance area.
4. It is obvious that interest rates are headed higher. But what's also obvious is Wall Street's incredibly complacent reaction to this reality, viz. "rising rates are ok because it means the economy is growing and corporate pricing power and earnings will benefit from this growth". So falling interest rates were bullish for the market and now rising rates are also bullish? Who says perma-bullish Wall Street has learned a lesson from the bubble? As Ben Graham once said: "Wall Street learns nothing and forgets everything".
5. First-quarter earnings have been terrific. In fact, they are beating estimates by record amounts. But stocks are not reacting positively to this "bullish news", even with the huge dollars being thrown at the market so far this year.
This is a market that has had many reasons to stage an impressive rally over the last few months. The shorts have been squeezed, money managers have harvested huge amounts of fresh cash, and earnings have been nothing short of outstanding. But all these potentially powerful forces have failed to drive stock prices higher. So who is selling? All indications are that major distribution of stock has been taking place from sophisticated investors to unsophisticated investors. And such distribution inevitably occurs at significant market tops.
Investing accounts should continue to be heavily weighted in cash. Longer-term index put options can serve as protection against a major market decline. And I continue to recommend that a major portion of your capital at risk be devoted to energy, energy services and gold-mining stocks.
Bernie Schaeffer
s korea: no stop losses, please.
S Korea Aide: To Watch Oil Price Further Before Tax Cut
05/10/2004
Dow Jones News Services
(Copyright © 2004 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)
(MORE) Dow Jones Newswires
05-10-04 1955ET
*DJ S Korea Aide: To Ask Institutions To Hold Off Stk Sales
(MORE) Dow Jones Newswires
05-10-04 1956ET
*DJ S Korea Aide: Will Closely Watch FX Mkt For Speculation
(MORE) Dow Jones Newswires
05-10-04 1957ET
DJ S Korea To Ask Institutions To Hold Off Stop-Loss Sales
SEOUL (Dow Jones)--The South Korean government will ask institutional investors in the stock market to refrain from stop-loss sales in a bid to stabilize the equity market, which has been battered by worries over sooner-than-expected rate hikes in the U.S., according to an official from the Ministry of Finance and Economy.
"The government will ask institutional investors for cooperation so that excessive stop-loss sales do not become a destabilizing factor in the market," Kim Gwang-Lim, vice minister of finance and economy, said after an emergency government meeting Tuesday morning.
(MORE) Dow Jones Newswires
re a/d line on nyse. aha, from market swing:
http://www.forbes.com/2001/12/19/1219watch.html
Allmon explains: "A substantial number of issues traded on the NYSE includes preferred stocks and closed-end bond funds. All are highly sensitive to interest rate fluctuations. During much of 2001 they provided an upward bias to the NYSE advance/decline line as the Fed lowered interest rates. Millions of investors still blindly follow the NYSE advance/decline gyrations with little or no thought to the present composition of this once-important market barometer.
"I mention this because the A/D line probably will fall through the floor once interest rates turn up again. With the U.S. economy highly dependent on a strong inflow of foreign funds to support it, Treasury officials may need to sharply raise rates to stanch the outflow of fleeing foreign money. I have followed the NYSE advance/decline line for about 40 years, but gave up on it almost ten years ago as a dependable investment tool. Investors follow it blindly today at their peril. 'The old gray mare ain't what she used to be.' "
well, looking at the link on the message following yours,
http://www.marketvolume.com/content/products/mktsum/mktsum_adv_dcln.asp
it looks like most of the indices actually had more like 1:5 or 1:6 advancing volume to declining volume, except for the nasdaq, which was closer to 1:2.5 ... the exception being the nyse. however, the nyse has all of those interest sensitive reits, etc ...
----
on the other hand, prechter was interviewed on cnbc, and he warned viewers that he's always interviewed at the yearly low ...
860 new lows on NYSE
of course, there are quite a number of interest sensitive pseudostocks there ...
CME Sets Single-Day Globex, Eurodollar Globex Vol Record
05/10/2004
Dow Jones News Services
(Copyright © 2004 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)
Chicago, May 10 (OsterDowJones) - Chicago Mercantile Exchange set a total
single-day trading volume record Friday of 6.5 million contracts, exclusive of
CME's non-traditional Trakrs contracts, the exchange said Monday.
Friday's volume topped the previous single-day record of 5.5 million
contracts set on March 5. Total volume on Globex reached 2.85 million
contracts, surpassing the previous record of 2.6 million contracts traded on
March 11. The 3.67 million contracts traded on CME's trading floors also was
an all-time record.
Interest rate products reached a record 4.6 million contracts. A record
3.2 million Eurodollar futures and 1.3 million Eurodollar options were
traded. Also on Friday, more than 1.1 million Eurodollar futures contracts on
Globex were traded, surpassing by 39% the previous record of 811,443 set on
April 21.
The overall volume record at CME included strength in all CME product
areas, with more than 1.5 million E-mini equity index contracts, more than
250,000 foreign exchange contracts, and commodity contracts approached 50,000.
Additional daily individual product records worth noting included the
Mexican peso future on Globex, with more than 10,000 contracts, and the E-mini
S&P 400 Midcap, which totaled approximately 24,000 contracts.
Open interest in all CME products stood at almost 38 million contracts at
the end of Friday's trading session, and interest rate product open interest
exceeded the 20 million level, with Eurodollar futures and options both at
record open interest levels. Open interest represents contract positions that
remain open at the end of the trading day.
---
Theopolis Waters, OsterDowJones, (312) 715-6279
twaters@osterdowjones.com
"lowering standards again ... "
hehe. depends on what u own. buy some ucpix!
perhaps, but -- so far -- that doesn't jive with facts. from meet the press today:
MR. RUSSERT:Â Let me show you a couple more poll
numbers, and we'll go through them. Was the war in
Iraq worth it? Yes, 42; no, 47. Huge division
amongst--between Democrats and Republicans. Â Look
at that, Republicans, 69; 18, exact opposite, but 52
percent of Independents now saying not worth it.
And on the economy, John Harwood of The Wall
Street Journal wrote this:Â "The [NBC/WSJ] poll's
findings on the economy may be the most worrisome
for the Republicans. While events in Iraq have
deteriorated, the president's aides have argued that
evidence of economic resurgence was bolstering
support for this re-election. ... Voters remain skeptical.Â
Disapproval of Mr. Bush's handling of the economy,
53% to 41%, represents the weakest showing of his
presidency. After months of high-profile discussion of
job losses, the proportion of Americans who expect
better times in the next year has fallen to 42% from
50% in January. By 51% to 40% voters say Mr. Bush's
tax cuts were too large, while a 63% majority shrugs
off recent stock-market gains as benefiting `only
businesses and investors,' not `nearly all Americans.'"
And then this: Is U.S. headed in right direction? Right
direction, 33; wrong direction, 50. Again, the division
between the parties but Independents by 2:1 think
we're in the wrong direction. And then this:  Does Bush
deserve re-election? Yes, 45; no, 49. Again, Dems,
Republicans, look at that split, 84; 10- -11, 84. But
Independents, 51; 39. But, James Carville...
MR. CARVILLE: I knew you were coming to me. It
was too good for too long.
MR. RUSSERT:Â But, wait, all that that I just laid out...
MR. CARVILLE:Â Right.
MR. RUSSERT:Â ...here's the horse race.
MR. CARVILLE:Â Right.
MR. RUSSERT:Â Who would you vote for today?Â
Bush, 46;Â Kerry, 42...
MR. CARVILLE:Â Yeah.
MR. RUSSERT:Â ...Nader, 5.
I see Mr. Bush getting re-elected.
u think? i see his supporters deserting him.
george will, ever the defender, just had this to say. (this it just part; its pretty scathing ...)
http://www.sacbee.com/content/opinion/national/will/story/9184291p-10109787c.html
This administration cannot be trusted to govern if it cannot be counted on to think and, having thought, to have second thoughts. Thinking is not the reiteration of bromides about how "all people yearn to live in freedom" (McClellan). And about how it is "cultural condescension" to doubt that some cultures have the requisite aptitudes for democracy (Bush). And about how it is a "myth" that "our attachment to freedom is a product of our culture" because "ours are not Western values; they are the universal values of the human spirit." (Tony Blair)
Speaking of culture, as neoconservative nation-builders would be well-advised to avoid doing, Pat Moynihan said: "The central conservative truth is that it is culture, not politics, that determines the success of a society. The central liberal truth is that politics can change a culture and save it from itself." Here we reach the real issue about Iraq, as distinct from unpleasant musings about who believes what about skin color.
The issue is the second half of Moynihan's formulation — our ability to wield political power to produce the requisite cultural change in a place like Iraq. Time was, this question would have separated conservatives from liberals. Nowadays it separates conservatives from neoconservatives.
Novak: Interest rate boost before election
Interest rate boost before election
May 9, 2004
BY ROBERT NOVAK SUN-TIMES COLUMNIST
The Bush administration has been alInterest rate boost before election
May 9, 2004
BY ROBERT NOVAK SUN-TIMES COLUMNIST
Advertisement
The Bush administration has been alerted that Chairman Alan Greenspan will guide the Federal Reserve Board to a small interest rate boost before the presidential election, and President Bush is reported to be satisfied.
According to these sources, the central bank this fall will raise the federal funds (interbank lending) rate from the current historic low of 1 percent to 1.25 percent. The Fed is expected to push the rate to 1.5 percent later this year after the election, and up to 2 percent early next year.
Typically, Greenspan's public statements have been so difficult to interpret that Fed-watchers have disagreed in their predictions of future action. But the administration has been assured that interest rate increases will not affect the election outcome.
erted that Chairman Alan Greenspan will guide the Federal Reserve Board to a small interest rate boost before the presidential election, and President Bush is reported to be satisfied.
According to these sources, the central bank this fall will raise the federal funds (interbank lending) rate from the current historic low of 1 percent to 1.25 percent. The Fed is expected to push the rate to 1.5 percent later this year after the election, and up to 2 percent early next year.
Typically, Greenspan's public statements have been so difficult to interpret that Fed-watchers have disagreed in their predictions of future action. But the administration has been assured that interest rate increases will not affect the election outcome.
hmmm. seems ur right. i didn't enlarge my window far enough back. seems like it goes right back to the release of those ppi numbers held hostage for 2 months ....
yeah, that's consistent with what i've seen. 2.40-2.48 for premium, and about ten cents and twenty or 25 less for 87 and 89 octane.
Premium gasoline in Los Angeles runs about $2.80
hmm. i've been paying 2.40-2.48 in LA.
I did not see GNT's per Yahoo on Tuesday and Wednesday. Sorry to be nitpicky.
and on the other hand, my charts seem to show gnt's from last week (4/30 -1105, 4/29 -1310, -1442, .. quite a few, 4/28 -1176, etc)
in fact - if these are accurate - if i just threshold out for gnt's, the whole series seems to begin at 1:30 on 4/08 (-1122) and have been pretty regular since then, with climaxes (many big neg ticks) on on 4/13, 4/20, 4/29, 5/7.
which - perhaps not coincidentally - are just around the days of the bigger one-day moves on the tnx (though 4/20 preceeds by 1 day).
"And more bad news may be on the way."
here's a better description of that:
But Rumsfeld warned the committee that the worst was yet to come. He said he had looked at the full array of unedited photographs of the situation at Abu Ghraib for the first time Thursday night and found them “hard to believe.”
“There are other photos that depict incidents of physical violence towards prisoners, acts that can only be described as blatantly sadistic, cruel and inhumane," he said. “... It’s going to get a good deal more terrible, I’m afraid.”
Rumsfeld did not describe the photos, but U.S. military officials told NBC News that the unreleased images showed U.S. soldiers severely beating an Iraqi prisoner nearly to death, having sex with a female Iraqi female prisoner and “acting inappropriately with a dead body.” The officials said there was also a videotape, apparently shot by U.S. personnel, showing Iraqi guards raping young boys.
"no one ever seems to be thankful that our country, freedoms, markets and way of life are the result of a those who sacrifice. freedom is NOT free. too many take their freedoms for granted."
some of us would prefer not to see those freedoms eroded and our founding values lost in attempts to protect them that are misguided and ... i'll stop myself here.
"swept under the rug"
that you think its that easy sounds almost cynical ... it will be harder for him to walk away from the issue re treatment of enemies combattants, since the administration has already defended their position to the supreme court. they'll sink or swim together ...
dan,
gold cots recently have been showing big reductions in long positions. but i'm still watching ... as i said in jan, i'm thinking that late summer might be a next opportunity, since - if i remember right - that time is seasonally weak for gold (because of indian buying?) but it all really depends on macro conditions.
on the other hand, since a number of ipos are being planned now (like google) for midsummer, my conspiratorial mind says that da boyz are expecting some positive market action around then ...
... INTC's and CSCO' closing green for instance.
although intc is a bit of a special case: major strategy change was announced friday and next week is midquarter update, plus dell earnings.
though for the life of me, i can't see what folks find positive about that intel news friday, since it pretty much just says that intc is following in the footsteps of amd (especially on top of the 64-bit capitulation a few weeks ago) ...