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Monday, 05/10/2004 8:41:06 PM

Monday, May 10, 2004 8:41:06 PM

Post# of 704019
re a/d line on nyse. aha, from market swing:


http://www.forbes.com/2001/12/19/1219watch.html

Allmon explains: "A substantial number of issues traded on the NYSE includes preferred stocks and closed-end bond funds. All are highly sensitive to interest rate fluctuations. During much of 2001 they provided an upward bias to the NYSE advance/decline line as the Fed lowered interest rates. Millions of investors still blindly follow the NYSE advance/decline gyrations with little or no thought to the present composition of this once-important market barometer.

"I mention this because the A/D line probably will fall through the floor once interest rates turn up again. With the U.S. economy highly dependent on a strong inflow of foreign funds to support it, Treasury officials may need to sharply raise rates to stanch the outflow of fleeing foreign money. I have followed the NYSE advance/decline line for about 40 years, but gave up on it almost ten years ago as a dependable investment tool. Investors follow it blindly today at their peril. 'The old gray mare ain't what she used to be.' "


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