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Roasting Bottlenecks Could Support
Firm Molybdenum Price Past 2010
http://www.stockinterview.com/News/11082006/Roasting-molybdenum.html
Confusion over Discovery contract signing
http://www.cyclingnews.com/news.php?id=news/2006/nov06/nov09news2
But what about the International Association of Professional Cycling teams (AIGCP) pact made on 25 October in Paris? The members of the AIGCP claimed that they would not sign riders implicated in doping investigations and request riders authorize the UCI to collect their DNA samples before the end of 2007. Bjarne Riis, Basso's former team manager at CSC, was left confused with his fellow ProTour team.
"In his events I have lost too. I am left without the best in the world, but I also risked my team disappearing," said the Dane to La Gazzetta dello Sport Wednesday afternoon. "Only a few days ago, the ProTour teams had expressed their intentions to no longer engage the riders entangled with Operación Puerto in addition to requiring a DNA test. In reality, in the end, the interests of individuals prevail while the initiatives go disregarded."
German teams, T-Mobile Team and Team Gerolsteiner, were relatively tight-lipped in light of Discovery Channel's signing of Ivan Basso. "[Team manager Hans-Michael Holczer] will not comment on this event for the time being," Gerolsteiner spokesman Mathias Wieland told Cyclingnews. His counterpart at T-Mobile, Stefan Wagner, told Cyclingnews, that "We have our clear line and there is a commitment among all ProTour teams."
T-Mobile Sports Director Rolf Director explained to www.express.de, "I find it inconceivable that Basso will sign with Discovery Channel," and added, "Basso and Jan Ullrich, too, should prove their innocence, only then will they be interesting again."
The Shipping News
The best economic indicator you've never heard of.
By Daniel Gross
http://www.slate.com/id/2090303/
I see why oil stocks are starting to move by the USO chart-- note the OBV, somebody out there is buying.
but what I don't get is the ST inverse relationship with gold.
K... I haven't gone back to look-- but I bet you his thread is a zoo...!
...actually I'm afraid to look...!
but in all fairness the stocks held up well today
low volatility -- mega indecisiveness -- MACD still bullish -- we're still in a uptrend -- ADX is still positive and we're still hovering above the 9-day MA
if we do correct, I seriously doubt we'll fall below 70-- if anything look for your next pivot point at around the 72 level (20-day MA)
going by today's action SWG should have a decent day tomorrow
oilsand stocks are working nicely-- OPTI Canada might be worth a look.
btw, is it my imagination that gold stocks and oil stocks tend to trade against each other...?
Played this game before haven't we...?
StockInvestors.net: Brett Options Cerro Condorini to Zincore Metals (TSXV: BBR)
http://www.stockhouse.ca/pfolio.asp?page=displaynews&symbol=T.SWG&newsid=4173900&fromale...
yeah, I guy has to watch what he says-- markets tends to humble.
me too...!
wasn't it tough to race unattached?
not if everyone else is-- and making pre-race deals happens in the minds of the mentally challenged. I've been approached before on this nonsense, it only pisses me off. The deals I make, if I make them, are for self preservation and it's usually towards the end of the race, not at the beginning-- and it's when I'm trying to stay in with the lead group.
But when I feel that I'm strongest guy out there-- my intention is to crush without mercy.
deals are for pussies.
Masters...?
yeah, I've been thinking about it-- maybe this coming year.
Do you think as I that Slider is on the wrong side of the trade here/at this point?
I've responded to you about Slider before about his uncanny ability to be one the wrong side of the trade-- I've always said that he's either creating room at the tops and/or bottoms to reverse his large positions in his hedge fund (or maybe he doesn't have a dime in the markets and he's just another SI fruitcake).
-- a major scare, a major mea culpa
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=22986858
-- an obvious market top
don't panic-- always plot your charts using a 9-day ema and let the price cross on the sector index before you stop out of your individual stocks.
I prefer XGD, but the HUI is just fine.
First Calgary Petroleums Ltd. announces Gas Marketing Agreement Signed
http://biz.yahoo.com/cnw/061107/fcp_gas_marketing.html?.v=1
FCP is halted, financing...???
How do I do that...? I'm not a pro-- my rides in the winter are no more than an hour and a half long, and I usually do them in the midmorning with the idea that I'll be finishing with potentially warmer weather as I approach highnoon.
"when you race"
when I raced, past tense-- don't forget I'm an old man, going on 44.
unattached, CAT 2
I'll tell you this; the trick to riding in the cold is "sweat-management." If you are too warm-- you'll sweat, and the sweat turns to ice. If you're too cold, ugh, well, that ain't no fun.
IMO, you need different sets of clothing combinations for every 5 degree shift in temperature. I have a small fortune tied up in Craft clothing, I even have these fabulous winter MTB bootees made by Lake that are fabulously warm.
yeah, a tailwind is nice-- but freezing rain is better <vbg>
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-50_metric_e.html
if that's a recent picture-- he's looking pretty good, all things considered.
BTW, why is Newmont so quiet...?
I've been buying a lot of SWG.TO
diamonds...???
I've also been buying a lot of SGF.TO, ABZ.TO is showing incredible leadership-- just a matter of time for the rest of the sector to reflect it.
develop KUPOL and more imporatntly Cerra Casale
BINGO...!!!
kinda like SXR, they kept expanding until they had critical mass.
I wonder if I should buy-buy-buy the crap out of Kinross-- this deal is the only reason why I wasn't trading this stock in the first place ... now that it's done, maybe there's opportunity.
anyway, by the stock action you'd almost think that this is a merger of equals.
just on the technicals-- Bema just pop into the 6-1/2 to the 7-1/2 price range (TSX)
yeah, premarket is soft-- there's no point to selling, just yet.
Kinross Gold announces acquisition of Bema Gold
US$3.1 billion transaction aligns with Kinross' four point strategy, expands
reserve base and creates shareholder value
TORONTO and VANCOUVER, Nov. 6 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ - Kinross Gold
Corporation ("Kinross") (TSX: K, NYSE: KGC) and Bema Gold Corporation ("Bema")
(TSX/NYSE: BGO, AIM: BAU) are pleased to announce that their Boards of
Directors have unanimously approved Kinross' acquisition of Bema in a US$3.1
billion transaction to create a US$7.9 billion major gold producer.
Highlights
Bema shareholders will vote at a meeting, expected to be held in
mid-January 2007, to approve the acquisition. Upon successful completion of
the transaction, on a pro forma basis Kinross will have the following
attributes:
- Mineral reserves and resources of 50 million ounces of gold;
80 million ounces of silver and 2.9 billion pounds of copper
- Nine mines, in five countries, on three continents, with
4,700 employees globally
- Excellent pipeline of major construction and future projects
including Paracatu in Brazil, Kupol in Russia and Cerro Casale
in Chile
- Participation in exploration joint venture to drive new Russian
growth opportunities
- 2006 estimated production of 1.8 million gold equivalent ounces;
growing 56 per cent to approximately 2.8 million ounces in 2009
- Estimated 2009 cost of sales per gold equivalent ounce at Kupol of
approximately US$130 will lower an already competitive cost profile
- Consolidated ownership of Refugio mine in Chile
- Cash of approximately US$350 million
- Immediate synergies
- Led by Kinross management team
"This acquisition will create exceptional value for shareholders," said
Tye W. Burt, President and Chief Executive Officer of Kinross. "By combining
our assets, operations and expertise, we have dramatically increased our gold
reserve and resource base to more than 50 million ounces. We will have a
well-balanced gold reserve profile with 39 per cent in Chile, 37 per cent in
Brazil, 16 per cent in North America and 8 per cent in Russia. These reserves,
coupled with our enhanced exploration pipeline, will put Kinross in a unique
position to take advantage of the robust gold price and provide investors with
an excellent portfolio of world-class assets."
"The Bema Board of Directors unanimously approved this transaction and an
independent advisor has provided an opinion that the transaction consideration
to be received by Bema shareholders is fair from a financial point of view. We
believe that our companies are a great fit due to complementary strengths,
geographic synergies and similar growth profiles," said Clive T. Johnson,
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Bema. "Bema shareholders
are getting an attractive premium to become part of a stronger company that
will create near- and long-term value for all shareholders. Further, we expect
that the combined Company will be re-rated in the market once the transaction
is complete."
This acquisition of Bema consolidates Kinross' ownership of Refugio and
increases its reserves in Chile and Russia. District exploration and operating
synergies will be realized by substantially increasing Kinross' position in
the Maricunga region in Chile and adding the Chukotka region in Russia.
"The addition of Russian operations and exploration opportunities through
the acquisition is a natural fit with our proven track record and expertise
mining in the country," said Burt. "Bema's Kupol project will be a cornerstone
growth asset that is expected to begin production in 2008. Kupol is fully
financed and will continue to be staffed by Bema's Russian management and
construction development team."
"This acquisition aligns perfectly with our strategic plan by increasing
our core asset base, adding exploration reach and increasing our growth from
2006 through 2009," said Burt. "This acquisition creates an even stronger
Canadian-based gold company that fortifies Canada's dominant position in the
global gold mining arena."
With a successful track record, Clive Johnson will lead a new company
focused on exploration and development ("NewCo"). Kinross will participate as
an equity investor and have a right of joint venture opportunities in Russia.
Summary of the Transaction
The acquisition will be completed by way of a shareholder-approved plan of
arrangement whereby each Bema common share will be exchanged for 0.441 of a
Kinross common share representing a 34 per cent premium to the 20-day volume
weighted average price of Bema common shares on the TSX. Upon completion of
this transaction, 61 per cent of Kinross will be held by existing Kinross
shareholders and 39 per cent by existing Bema shareholders.
Following completion of the transaction, all outstanding options and
warrants of Bema will be exercisable to acquire that number of common shares
of Kinross determined by reference to the share exchange ratio.
Other terms of the transaction include an agreement by Bema to pay a break
fee to Kinross under certain circumstances in the amount of C$79 million. Bema
has also provided Kinross with certain other customary rights, including a
right to match competing offers.
The acquisition of Bema is subject to the parties completing due diligence
and entering into a further definitive agreement providing for the specific
mechanics for completing the transaction. The Board of Directors of Bema has
unanimously recommended the transaction to shareholders and will sign support
agreements in favour of the transaction. The Board of Directors has also
received an opinion from financial advisors to the effect that the
consideration to be received by Bema shareholders is fair from a financial
point of view. The acquisition is subject to all requisite regulatory
approvals, third party consents and other conditions customary in transactions
of this nature. The acquisition is expected to require the approval of (i) at
least two-thirds of the votes cast by Bema shareholders present in person or
by proxy at a meeting expected to be held in January 2007; and (ii) a majority
of the votes cast by Bema shareholders present in person or by proxy at such
meeting, excluding votes cast by those Bema shareholders required to be
excluded pursuant to the minority approval provisions of Ontario Securities
Commission rule 61-501 and Regulation Q-27 of the Autorite des marches
financiers. A proxy circular, setting out details of the transaction and
voting procedures, is expected to be mailed to Bema shareholders in December
2006.
In connection with the transaction, NewCo will purchase certain Bema
assets for aggregate consideration of US$20 million, including:
- An exploration alliance in Chukotka aimed at developing future gold
opportunities
- An exploration joint venture in northern Colombia with AngloGold
Ashanti Limited
- All of the shares of Petrex (Proprietary) Ltd.
Kinross will have a right to maintain a 9.9 per cent equity interest in
NewCo and an option to acquire up to 19.9 per cent of NewCo in any initial
public offering.
Board of Directors
Kinross will select one Bema nominee to be included in Kinross' management
slate of directors to be nominated for election at Kinross' next annual
shareholders' meeting. Until such time, the Bema nominee shall sit as an
observer on the Kinross board.
Advisors and Counsel
Kinross' Financial Advisor is Scotia Capital Inc. Strategic Advisors
include Rothschild Inc., GMP Securities LP and UBS Canada Securities Inc. and
its legal counsel are Blake, Cassels & Graydon LLP and Chadbourne & Parke LLP
with regard to Russian law matters. Bema's Financial Advisor is Genuity
Capital Markets and its legal counsel is Stikeman Elliott LLP. A special
committee of Bema's Board of Directors is receiving financial advice from BMO
Capital Markets and its legal counsel is Bennett Jones LLP.
Kinross Today
Kinross, a Canadian-based gold mining company, is the fourth largest
primary gold producer in North America and the eighth largest in the world.
With eight mines in Canada, the United States, Brazil and Chile, Kinross
employs more than 3,700 people. Kinross maintains a strong balance sheet and a
no gold hedging policy. Kinross is focused on the strategic objective
maximizing net asset value and cash flow per share through a four-point plan
built on growth from core operations; expanding capacity for the future;
attracting and retaining the best people in the industry; and driving new
opportunities through exploration and acquisition. Kinross maintains listings
on the Toronto Stock Exchange (symbol: K) and the New York Stock Exchange
(symbol: KGC).
Bema Today
Bema Gold Corporation is one of the world's fastest growing intermediate
gold producers with operating mines and development projects on three
continents. Bema is projected to produce one million ounces of gold annually
by the year 2009. Bema is listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange and the New
York Stock Exchange (symbol: BGO) and on the AIM Exchange in London (symbol:
BAU).
Conference Call
Kinross and Bema will hold a joint conference call with simultaneous web
cast presentation at 11 a.m. EST on November 6, 2006 to discuss this
transaction.
Conference call details:
To access the conference call, dial:
In Toronto: 416-644-3420
In Vancouver: 604-677-8677
In North America (toll free): 1-866-250-4892
The presentation slide show will be available in PDF format for download
from the Kinross website at www.kinross.com in advance of the conference call.
A replay will be available after 2 p.m. until November 20, 2006. The
replay number is 416-640-1917 and the North American toll free number is
1-877-289-8525. To access the recording, please enter access code 21209025
followed by the number sign.
Bema's Third Quarter conference call and webcast has been rescheduled to
Tuesday November 14, 2006 at 2 p.m. PST. To access the call, please dial
1-416-695-5261 or toll free 1-877-888-3490. A playback will be available for
one week after the call by dialing 1-416-695-5275 or toll free 1-888-509-0081,
pass code: 632675. For more information, visit Bema's website at www.bema.com.
Cautionary Statements
All statements, other than statements of historical fact, contained or
incorporated by reference in this media release, including any information as
to the future financial or operating performance of Kinross and Bema,
constitute "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of certain
securities laws, including the "safe harbour" provisions of the Securities Act
(Ontario) and the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of
1995 and are based on expectations, estimates and projections as of the date
of this media release. Forward-looking statements include, without limitation,
statements with respect to the future price of gold and silver, the estimation
of mineral reserves and resources, the realization of mineral reserve and
resource estimates, the timing and amount of estimated future production,
costs of production, expected capital expenditures, costs and timing of the
development of new deposits, success of exploration activities, permitting
time lines, currency fluctuations, requirements for additional capital,
government regulation of mining operations, environmental risks, unanticipated
reclamation expenses, title disputes or claims and limitations on insurance
coverage. The words "plans," "expects," or "does not expect," "is expected,"
"budget," "scheduled," "estimates," "forecasts," "intends," "anticipates," or
"does not anticipate," or "believes," or variations of such words and phrases
or statements that certain actions, events or results "may," "could," "would,"
"might," or "will be taken," "occur" or "be achieved" and similar expressions
identify forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are
necessarily based upon a number of estimates and assumptions that, while
considered reasonable by Kinross and Bema as of the date of this media
release, are inherently subject to significant business, economic and
competitive uncertainties and contingencies. The estimates and assumptions of
each of Kinross and Bema include, but are not limited to, the various
assumptions set forth in their respective most recent annual information form
and management's discussion and analysis as well as: (1) there being no
significant disruptions affecting operations, whether due to labour
disruptions, supply disruptions, damage to equipment or otherwise during the
balance of 2006; (2) development at Paracatu proceeding on a basis consistent
with our current expectations; (3) permitting and development at Buckhorn
proceeding on a basis consistent with Kinross' current expectations; (4) that
the exchange rate between the Canadian dollar, Brazilian real, Chilean peso
and the U.S. dollar will be approximately consistent with current levels; (5)
certain price assumptions for gold and silver; (6) prices for natural gas,
fuel oil, electricity and other key supplies remaining consistent with current
levels; (7) production forecasts meet expectations for the balance of 2006;
and (8) the accuracy of our current mineral reserve and mineral resource
estimates. Known and unknown factors could cause actual results to differ
materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Such
factors include, but are not limited to: fluctuations in the currency markets;
fluctuations in the spot and forward price of gold or certain other
commodities (such as silver, diesel fuel and electricity); changes in national
and local government legislation, taxation, controls, regulations and
political or economic developments in Canada, the United States, Chile,
Brazil, Russia or other countries in which we do or may carry on business in
the future; business opportunities that may be presented to, or pursued by,
us; operating or technical difficulties in connection with mining or
development activities; the speculative nature of gold exploration and
development, including the risks of obtaining necessary licenses and permits;
and diminishing quantities or grades of reserves. In addition, there are risks
and hazards associated with the business of gold exploration, development and
mining, including environmental hazards, industrial accidents, unusual or
unexpected formations, pressures, cave-ins, flooding and gold bullion losses
(and the risk of inadequate insurance, or inability to obtain insurance, to
cover these risks). Many of these uncertainties and contingencies can affect
Kinross' and Bema's actual results and could cause actual results to differ
materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements
made by, or on behalf of, Kinross or Bema. There can be no assurance that
forward-looking statements will prove to be accurate, as actual results and
future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such
statements. All of the forward-looking statements made in this media release
are qualified by these cautionary statements. Specific reference is made to
the respective most recent annual information form, annual management's
discussion and analysis and other filings with the securities regulators of
Canada and the United States of each of Kinross and Bema. In addition, the
following factors, among others, related to the proposed business combination
of Kinross and Bema could cause actual results to differ materially from the
forward-looking statements: the businesses of Kinross and Bema may not be
integrated successfully or such integration may be more difficult,
time-consuming or costly than expected; and the expected combination benefit
from the Kinross and Bema transaction may not be fully realized or not
realized within the expected time frame. These factors are not intended to
represent a complete list of the factors that could affect Kinross or Bema or
the combination of Kinross and Bema. Each of Kinross and Bema disclaims any
intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements
whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, or to
explain any material difference between subsequent actual events and such
forward-looking statements, except to the extent required by applicable law.
For further information regarding Proven and Probable Mineral Reserves and
Measured and Indicated Mineral Resources for either of Kinross or Bema, please
refer to each companies 2005 Mineral Reserve and Resource statements as filed
with regulatory authorities.
Qualified persons as defined by National Instrument 43-101 are:
Rob Henderson, Kinross Gold Corporation for all Kinross assets
Tom Garagan, Bema Gold Corporation for Kupol
Brian Scott, Bema Gold Corporation for Julietta
L. Smith, AMEC for Cerro Casale
SOURCE Kinross Gold Corporation
Kinross, Investor Relations Contact: Tracey Thom, tracey.thom@kinross.com,
(office) (416) 365-1362, (mobile) (416) 301-9022; Media Contact: Wilcox Group
(416) 203-6666; Bema, Investor Relations Contact: Ian Maclean,
investor@bemagold.com, (604) 681-8371
Kinross to make takeover bid for Bema - source
VANCOUVER, British Columbia , Nov 6 (Reuters) - Kinross
Gold Corp. <K.TO> will make a takeover bid for fellow Canadian
miner, Bema Gold Corp. <BGO.TO>, a source with one of the
companies said on Monday.
"Kinross is taking over Bema Gold," the source told
Reuters.
Both Kinross and Bema's stock were halted on the Toronto
Stock Exchange on Monday morning.
((Reporting by Nicole Mordant, editing by Amran Abocar;
Reuters Messaging: nicole.mordant.reuters.com@reuters.net; +604
664 7315))
Keywords: MINERALS KINROSS BEMA
(C) Reuters 2006. All rights reserved.
Ohh, good heavens-- both Kinross and Bema are halted...!!!
You know, I can understand some middle aged dude slipping up with the hot young secretary ... I can even buy the argument that you used a whore as a Jewish fertility ritual (was the church near a farm...?), but a 3-year drug induced man on man excursion...?
I'm sure some people have lost their faith because of this, not because this preacher man is an a-hole, but because the power of the Bible had no effect on his illness.
Too bad.
Uranium Update
Bob Hoye
http://www.321energy.com/editorials/hoye/hoye110506.html
yes, thanks
fwiw, I'm hoping for a nice gradual climb-- kinda like the one I'm seeing on the XGD.TO chart -- low volatility and nice accumulation, something that will turn into a nice strong trend without going parabolic.
really interesting
http://www.obsessionthemovie.com/
interesting
#msg-14536129
Andy Kessler: Hedge Fund Assets Will Grow 4x Over Next Decade
http://seekingalpha.com/article/19843
a bet on African oil
China, Africa sign $1.9B in trade deals
China and Africa ended an unprecedented summit Sunday, signing deals worth $1.9 billion and pledging to boost trade and development between the world's fastest-growing economy and its poorest continent.
Chinese President Hu Jintao already had pledged billions of dollars in aid and loans to Africa during the two-day meeting, part of Beijing's efforts to strengthen ties to Africa amid China's search for new oil sources and export markets.
In a declaration read at the end of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, China and 48 African nations pledged a partnership based on "political equality and mutual trust, economic win-win cooperation and cultural exchanges."
"We hold that the world today is undergoing complex and profound changes, and that the pursuit of peace, development and cooperation has become the trend of the times," Hu said after the biggest diplomatic meeting ever in China.
The event included heads of state from 35 of the 53 African nations, and top officials from 13 others.
"In a new era, China and Africa have common development goals and converging interests which offer a broad prospect for cooperation," Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi said in reading out part of the declaration.
"We hold that the establishment of a new type of strategic partnership is both the shared desire and independent choice of China and Africa, serves our common interests and will help enhance solidarity and mutual support and assistance," Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak said.
The declaration also called on developed nations to increase their help to Africa.
"We urge the developed countries to increase official development assistance and honor their commitments to opening markets and debt relief," the Ethiopian leader said.
The increased assistance from the developed world would include greater financial and technical help to boost Africa's capacity to fight poverty and disasters, and realize its U.N. Millennium Development Goals.
The declaration also called for a bigger role for Africa in the United Nations.
"Priority should be given to increasing the representation and full participation of African countries in the U.N. Security Council and other U.N. agencies," it said.
China and Africa had shown their economic potential earlier Sunday by signing more than a dozen trade deals worth $1.9 billion, while a Chinese company announced a $8.3 billion contract to build a railway in Nigeria.
Chinese companies signed 14 agreements with African governments and companies at the conclusion of a conference of Chinese and African entrepreneurs in Beijing, the official Xinhua News Agency said.
The deals cover infrastructure, resources, construction, telecommunications and finance, Xinhua said.
Separately, China Civil Engineering Construction Corp. said it signed a deal on Oct. 30 with Nigeria's transport ministry to build a railway in the West African country, the continent's largest oil producer.
The 817-mile railway will link the southern city of Lagos with Kano in the north. It would be China's largest overseas engineering project by value, the company said on its Web site on Saturday.
Hu on Saturday pledged to double China's aid to Africa from its 2006 level by 2009. He promised $3 billion in loans, $2 billion in export credits and a $5 billion fund to encourage Chinese investment in Africa.
It was not clear if the government's promised $5 billion investment fund played a role in the deals announced Sunday.
African leaders at the meeting said they welcomed Chinese investment and business ties, but Beijing also faced criticism that it is treating Africa like a colonial territory and supports African regimes with poor human rights records.
"Chinese assistance to Africa is sincere, unselfish and has no strings attached," Premier Wen Jiabao said at a gathering of Chinese and African entrepreneurs held as part of the conference.
African nations also said in the declaration that they were committed to a "one-China" policy and opposed Taiwan independence. China and Taiwan split amid civil war in 1949. Beijing considers the self-governing island to be Chinese territory.
China's trade with Africa soared to $39.7 billion last year, four times its 2000 level, according to Wen. He called for efforts to boost that to $100 billion by 2020, and promised to open China's markets wider to African exports.
China's state oil companies are expanding in Africa, signing deals in Nigeria, Angola, Sudan and elsewhere. Manufacturers are trying to expand exports to African markets.
Human rights activists accuse China of supporting governments such as those in Sudan and Zimbabwe that are accused of chronic abuses. African business groups complain about poor treatment by Chinese companies and competition from a flood of low-cost imports.
By CHARLES HUTZLER
Associated Press Writer
Water, water everywhere?
Aug 21st 2006 | STOCKHOLM
From Economist.com
Some two billion people are short of water. But, with a little ingenuity, there should be more than enough to go round.
IS THE world running out of water? A group of scientists, economists and development experts who have been studying the question for the past five years think they have the answer. Their “Comprehensive Assessment”, backed by the UN’s Food and Agricultural Organisation and various research institutes, governments and aid groups, will be released in November. But at the World Water Week, a conference now underway in Sweden, they have revealed some early findings. The bad news is that a third of the world’s population, some two billion people, are already short of water. But things do not have to be this way.
Roughly 900m people, the assessment finds, live in river basins where there is barely enough to keep rivers flowing and lakes filled. Another 700m live in basins rapidly approaching this “closed” state, and a billion more live within reach of adequate water supplies but cannot afford to make use of them. The water table is falling fast in densely populated and poor regions of China, Mexico and India. If current trends in water consumption continue, these grim statistics will only worsen.
The main culprit is agriculture. It takes roughly 3000 litres of water to grow enough for one person for one day, or about a litre for each calorie. Demand for water will grow as the world’s population increases and as people eat more—and more meat in particular. Raising livestock requires more water, per calorie, than growing crops. So the assessment suggests that, by 2050, agriculture will consume twice as much water as it does today. Industry and domestic use, which now account for only a small fraction of water consumption, are also growing quickly. Global warming adds another layer of uncertainty and risk.
In theory, the world would still have more than enough water to feed everyone, under most scenarios. But it might require much more food to be traded from sodden parts of Europe, North America and Russia to parched bits of Africa and Asia. Needless to say, subsistence farmers in those continents are in no position to pay for imports of food—and will become even poorer, presumably, if their water runs short. A few poor, dry and teeming countries, such as Egypt, already depend on food imports, along with the odd rich one, like Japan. But most governments are loth to put their consumers at the mercy of the world’s imperfect markets.
Instead, governments have traditionally tried to increase agricultural output through huge and expensive irrigation projects. But smaller investments, in simple devices such as pumps to tap groundwater, are faster to deploy, yield greater returns on capital, and bring fewer environmental and social problems. Modest outlays on rain-fed agriculture, in particular, could sharply raise farmers’ productivity in poor countries, and so help both to lift their incomes and to reduce the need for an expansion of agriculture elsewhere.
Over half of world’s food comes from rain-fed farms, as opposed to irrigated ones. Most of the world’s poorest farmers, including the vast majority in Africa, rely on rain for their livelihoods. If the rains fail, so do the crops. Channels to harvest and direct rainfall, and small, sealed reservoirs or tanks to store it, would not only see them through dry spells, but also allow them to eke bigger harvests out of the same fields. If adopted on a grand scale, the assessment argues, such techniques could double crop yields. In that case, the area under cultivation globally would only have to rise 10% to meet rising demand for food—and there would be plenty of water to go round.
I have no doubt that you'll see a fairly decent bounce in the canroys-- but you'll always be subjected to negative money flows until the deed is done.
...as for the Conservatives being labeled as liars and thieves-- my speculations are that they want to follow in the Irish footsteps and lower corporate taxation with the elimination of capital gains taxes for the investors. To level the corporate playing field and a return to growth investing...? They will be forgiven by the electorate, in dramatic fashion.
Water...?
Sure why not...!
I talked about this last summer-- the best way to invest is with the PHO etf ... but I'd show some restraint for now ... I'm somewhat concerned that were due for a market correction after the election.
China to offer Africa $5B in credits
President Hu Jintao said Saturday that China will double its aid to African nations, offer $5 billion in loans and credits and train 15,000 African professionals.
The pledge came as Hu opened a meeting with dozens of African leaders that is meant to cement Beijing's ties with Africa.
Hu said in a speech that China will double its aid to Africa from its 2006 level by 2009, though he gave no figures.
Beijing will offer $3 billion in preferential loans and $2 billion of export credits over the next three years and create a China-Africa development fund, Hu said.
Beijing will train 15,000 African professionals, build schools, hospitals and anti-malaria clinics and send Chinese youth volunteers to Africa, Hu said.
Beijing also will increase the number of categories of goods granted tariff-free import status to China from Africa's poorest countries and open three to five economic cooperation zones in Africa, Hu said.
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS/BEIJING
Africa and China
From the Economist Intelligence Unit ViewsWire
African heads of state gather for a summit in China
This week's summit in Beijing between the Chinese government and the leaders of more than 40 African countries has drawn attention to the increasingly important role that China's is now playing on the continent. It is unclear whether this role is mutually advantageous, however. Investment inflows are often beneficial, but China is being accused of undermining Western attempts to improve governance and reduce corruption in Africa, while at the same time ignoring environmental standards. China's influence also carries other risks, particularly if these countries' economies over-specialise in satisfying soaring Chinese demand for commodities.
The most visible sign of closer relations between China and Africa is in booming trade and investment flows. Between 2000 and 2005 trade between China and Africa increased from just under US$10bn to nearly US$40bn, and it is predicted to more than double by 2010. China is rapidly becoming one of Africa's main sources of investment; in 2004 it invested US$900m in the continent, an increase of more than 300% from the previous year, and several large deals by Chinese energy companies recently mean growth in investment will continue to soar.
China's main interest in Africa is gaining access to its oil and other natural resources. Over the past 20 years, China has gone from being Asia's largest oil exporter to becoming the second largest oil importer in the world. In addition, China has become the world's largest consumer of a number of other raw materials, including aluminium, copper, nickel and iron ore. With domestic production of oil stagnant, and demand forecast to grow by around 7% a year, China is becoming an increasingly important player on the world energy scene. China currently gets around 30% of its oil from Africa, mainly from Sudan, Angola, and Congo-Brazzaville. Although China is mostly interested in Africa's oil, it has also become a big importer of copper from the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia, iron ore and platinum from South Africa, and timber from Gabon and Cameroon.
Boon or bane?
China's growing interest in Africa has certainly given the region's economies a boost. Soaring Chinese demand for commodities—China was responsible for 40% of the increase in global oil demand between 2000 and 2004, and the country is now the largest consumer of many other commodities—has been one of the main factors behind the current boom in global commodity prices. This phenomenon has been a boon for the economies of sub-Saharan Africa, where GDP growth has accelerated to an average of 4.4% in 2001-04, compared with just 2.6% during the preceding three years.
However, China is now being accused of undermining Western attempts to improve governance and reduce corruption in these countries, while at the same time ignoring environmental standards. In Angola, which became China's largest supplier of oil in the first half of 2006, there are fears that China's investment in the country's infrastructure—which usually comes with few strings attached—is undermining attempts by the IMF and World Bank to improve governance in the country. These multilaterals' own loans and grants, which are in any case much small by comparison with the funds coming from China, normally come with much tougher conditions. As China's investment in countries like Angola increases, Western influence over the region will undoubtedly wane.
Most serious of all, China has been accused of ignoring in genocide in Sudan. China's attitude is the main reason why the UN has been so slow to introduce sanctions against Sudan for the human-rights abuses taking place in its Darfur region. China is now Sudan's largest export market and biggest source of foreign investment, and has threatened to protect its commercial interests by vetoing the introduction of any sanctions against Sudan at the UN Security Council, where it holds a permanent seat.
Chinese investment also carries other risks. In a recent report, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development argued that China's booming demand for commodities has reduced the incentive for these countries to diversify their economies away from commodities, making them vulnerable to sudden swings in global prices. In addition, resource industries actually create very few new jobs for the locals. In Angola's case, virtually no new jobs have been created for the locals, due to the shipping in of construction teams from China. Another point of contention is the fact that booming oil exports in Nigeria and Angola have pushed up exchange rates in these countries, undermining the competitiveness of their exports from other more labour-intensive industries.
Diplomatic imperative
Although China's main interest in Africa is in gaining access to secure supplies of natural resources, diplomacy is also playing a part. One of the conditions for Chinese investment is that the recipient nations endorse the one-China principle, by agreeing to recognise the People's Republic of China to the exclusion of their recognition of Taiwan.
Forty-eight African countries now recognise China, with Chad, Senegal and Liberia the latest countries to come on board. This has left only five African countries, including Swaziland and Malawi, that still recognise Taiwan. China is hoping that further promises of aid and investment will be enough to ensure that the few remaining waverers eventually drop their links with Taiwan. Indeed, China has even been prepared to use its aid funds as leverage to secure compliance with the one-China policy. In Zambia it threatened to cut aid and diplomatic relations if the pro-Taiwanese opposition candidate, Michael Sata, was elected (he was not).
Mutual benefits, for now
At the moment both sides are benefiting from increased Chinese involvement in the region. However, there clearly risks attached for African countries, and there is real concern that poor business practices by Chinese firms could undermine attempts by Western governments and multilateral organisations to improve governance and reduce corruption across Africa. At least part of the reason why Chinese companies are seen as being unethical investors reflects their lack of international business experience. The root of Chinese firms' bad behaviour lies in weak corporate-governance standards and managerial transparency at home. As standards at home improve, the behaviour of Chinese companies abroad should improve.
More of a concern is the behaviour of the Chinese government, which is being accused of ignoring genocide in Darfur, and human-rights abuses in Zimbabwe. Part of this reflects Chinese foreign policy doctrine, which eschews any "interference" in the affairs of foreign states. However, China does not deliberately set out to make allies of the world's worst human-rights abusers, it is just that in its race to gain secure access to raw materials, it is often left with little choice but to invest in countries like Sudan, which have been abandoned by many Western countries.
Despite this, China is increasingly keen to be seen as a responsible global power. If these ambitions are to be taken seriously, the Chinese government will need to improve its behaviour by condemning genocide, and shunning regimes such as those of Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe. First of all, it will need to convince the attendees at the Beijing conference that it has the continent's interests in mind, as well as its own economic needs.