Looking for my next Forex trade
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Interesting article talking about market inflows vs. outflows. According to the stats, companies are keeping stocks propped up by buying back their own shares. That can't last...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-14/there-s-only-one-buyer-keeping-the-s-p-500-s-bull-market-alive
The more I look at the long term AU charts, the more I think that we could potentially see 7 weeks worth of topside gains wiped out in 1 week's time...literally.
Gonna be an interesting week either way.
The only thing that's really got me confused here is that this entire rally on AU off the lows still only counts best as a big ABC correction...like a big Wave 4 movement.
Rallies don't start with 3 waves up...they start with a big 5 wave correction. The Elliott Wave count still says that AU has another daily low to make before it can base and rally harder north.
So I'm still thinking we see a new daily low on this pair first. Of course, I've been wrong before...LOL!
AU 4 Hour Chart...
I'll add one more AU short in the 0.76 area and then I'll be done with positions for now. Then I'll just wait for the inevitable.
I'll add one more AU short in the 0.76 area and then I'll be done with positions for now. Then I'll just wait for the inevitable.
WTIC Daily Chart
I think it's pretty much a given all the way across the board that this rally is over for now. Oil is just as good an indicator as any. It's risen too far, too fast and now it's back at a key resistance level on the daily chart along with an RSI that's way too high due to the extreme oversold conditions we were in. There's also a gap on the chart below $30 that needs to be filled and that's just about the right place for a retrace.
This whole exercise was just a precursor to a move back down to near the lows before a larger rally can take place.
When oil falls again this week, AU and the other risk pairs will follow suit.
This week is actually gonna be news intensive, at least from the Fed. The Fed minutes are due Wednesday at 1 PM Central so the market will be preparing for that. No telling what we'll see up to that point.
Tomorrow night, we get the AU policy meeting minutes. That should be interesting.
Since we we wrapped up 5 waves down Friday on AU on the 15 minute chart, I wouldn't be surprised to see a slight gap up today on the Sunday open. That would help finalize a finishing move topside to wrap things up, maybe around 0.76, give or take.
Have to wait and see...
Yeah, same here. I have lots of time on my hands so I pour over the charts all the time.
That's the reason I tend to hold long term positions and flipper positions. That way I get the best of both worlds.
Funny thing is, the flipper positions are the ones that go against me more often...the larger time frame core positions rarely lose money...LOL!
Yep, that pair came to my attention through one of the mods on the board here, TicketToRide. He's a long term chart player. Daily is probably the smallest time frame he looks at. He prefers weekly and monthly charts. He only has to look at the charts periodically.
He used to trade silver until they took the margin ability away and it became a 1:1 ratio. He switched to USD/DKK because it moves like silver used to move. He has a very basic setup that he uses that's quite interesting using a CCI and an EMA on the bottom.
The spread on USD/DKK is a bit high but the movements more than make up for it. I don't really trade the pair but periodically I watch it to get an idea of where the US dollar is headed overall.
LOL! Very astute observation my friend...yes, it is a test. I will now reveal the full details of this pair. You might not be familiar with it but this pair is USD/DKK. And it's the daily chart.
It has 2 very important features...
#1. It is the polar opposite of EU...literally, you can take the EU chart, flip it upside down, and you get USD/DKK. They move in completely opposite directions. So, if USD/DKK moves up, EU moves down. So you just helped to confirm that EU is likely headed down since USD/DKK is likely to head up.
#2. This pair reflects the current state of the US dollar index almost perfectly. This last drop on USD/DKK took place as the risk pairs like EU, AU, GU, etc. took off north. So, if USD/DKK goes north, those same risk pairs are gonna drop.
This is just another way to confirm what I already see on the risk pair charts that I posted last night. But I really did want your unbiased opinion to make sure that I wasn't just being biased in my approach.
Well done...we agree with the technical evaluation. Here is the full chart with all of the details. While I don't necessarily expect the top to blow off just yet, I do also expect a return to the top end.
By the way, USD/DKK has an ADR of 500 to 600 pips a day. The big spike on EU drove this one down 2400 pips. It's about a 5:1 relationship with EU. If EU moves 20 pips, USD/DKK will move 100 pips or so in the opposite direction.
USD/DKK Daily Chart...
Hey Heavy, I need your help. I need your honest opinion on how this chart should be traded and what you think would be the best bet from these levels...up to the top of the channel or down to the bottom of the channel.
I've removed all indications of pair, time frame, price, etc....just price action and the TDI.
Honest, unbiased opinion is what I need. No rush...just when you get time.
Thanks...
So, that's 3 pairs that have enjoyed rallies from 3 different time frames...and they're all sitting at key resistance levels as of the close of this week.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=121141519
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=121141583
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=121141673
Somehow, I don't think that's coincidence. The charts are just plain old support and resistance levels using either boxes or trend lines, not wave counts.
But the wave counts on each of those charts also show pullbacks are due.
We might not make new daily lows from the pullbacks but they sure as heck are due for a drop one way or another.
AU Monthly Chart
Found this while I was digging around a bit. Since that consolidation in the middle, the boxes shown have been controlling AU's movements. Right now, it's stopped at the previous Box 2 bottom that used to be support. The previous consolidation area is where support used to be.
I find it interesting that it's back here now after completing 5 full waves up on the daily chart.
Have to see if it holds...
Found something that looks like it will help a lot with TDI wave counting.
It's called a Stealth Hybrid. The action on the wave form mimics that of the TDI but it's much smoother. Makes the waves much easier to count overall.
Still need the TDI but I think this along with the TDI will give a clearer picture.
I'm going to do some testing in the simulator with it and see how it performs. I'd totally forgotten I even had this thing. It's part of a total system.
AU 4 Hour Chart Example...
It's just being a pain in the butt on this final C wave leg up. They tend to be relentless but, like anything else, they do finally end.
I have enough confidence from what I've seen on your spike and ledges to know that the initial test of the bottom of the ledge tends to product some type of retrace, even if it's not a new low. From what I can see, the first test can produce anywhere from a 50% to 61.8% drop back. Then, it has to test it 3 or 4 times before it can finally break through.
This is the best count I have so far, Heavy. The last 5 waves down on the 4 hour chart would be a minor Wave 1 and this push back up to make new highs would be Wave 2.
So we still need to see some kind of 3, 4, and 5 pullback to set up for another leg up later.
The expanding diagonal I mentioned is highlighted at the top with 5 waves completed. Room for one more quick high and that's about it. The 5th wave push in these things is normally fast and furious.
Of course, my wave counting has been crap the last couple of weeks so who knows...LOL!
Overall, still a big ABC pattern. EW requires at least a 50% pullback of a typical zig zag before another leg up can occur so I'd still expect a drop back to between 0.71 and 0.72.
AU 4 hour chart...
Geez, just kill my dreams why don't ya...LOL!
That still falls well within that daily ledge resistance area I see Heavy so it's good.
I just can't reconcile an immediate move into that upper level with the elliott wave finishing patterns I see on the AU hourly chart right now. Those expanding wedges are normally deadly 5th wave finishing patterns.
What's even more strange is that AU is still only showing a 3 wave pattern bounce, which still qualifies as a bear market correction only with another daily low still coming.
Oh well, time will tell I guess. Have to just make the best of it and see.
Whatcha think on AU, Heavy? I'm looking for slight pullback today and then a move up Sunday night or Monday morning into the 0.76 area to test that daily ledge bottom before it pulls back harder.
The final wedge pattern on the AU hourly tells me we're pretty close to topping out near term.
Not quite yet, Stargate. It's moving up in a Wave 3 now but it has to pull back to a Wave 4 on the TDI to set up another leg up.
Even after it completes 5 full waves up, there will be yet another pullback to likely make one more test near the daily low before it can really rally later.
GU Daily Chart...
Put it back to sleep...LOL!
Well, I guess AU wasn't quite done after all. I saw this the other day and kept wondering why the final expanded diagonal wasn't wrapped up yet.
Hourly chart...guess I should have waited for those last few waves to wrap up first before jumping in on a big order on the new public account. Had to close it so I basically erased the gains pretty quick for the fledgeling account's first new week.
I've said it often...never go in too heavy on an order and that's why.
Have to wait now for confirmation of a top by a breaking of the wedge to the downside before adding any more orders.
Gonna go catch a movie...everyone have a good night.
That's where I am now. Retired at 50 and trading full time.
I guess I shouldn't complain. Between the computer business I owned, running my parent's eating establishment till they sold it, and now trading, I've done ok for myself financially so I guess I should be happy.
My wife still works part time and the kids are all grown except for two 17 year olds at home. One of those is in college now.
So I've gotten used to having the place to myself during the day. It's not bad but I do get bored sometimes.
I agree Heavy. Strong moves are often met with 2 to 3 days of weak movement.
I hate to see the trading week wrap up.
I have to confess...I feel totally lost on the weekends with the market closed. I'm like an addicted junkie...LOL! I'll even sit around and play in the trade simulator on the weekends just to keep my junkie fix going until Sunday night.
My wife doesn't like it but as long as I make good money, she lets me slide.
That's all that matters. Individual trades come and go but it's what the sum total looks like at the end of the week, month, or year that carries the real weight.
Oh yeah, I can't complain. It's not always so rosy though. Some weeks are dry spells...this one was a good one though.
Yeah, another neckline test has to take place to validate the pattern, even if it pops again after that to retest the right shoulder area.
Yep, should be good to go. A slight move above the 71.6 can still happen. It's not exact every time.
I better stick with 0.7440 for the TP on the AU short for now until that neckline breaks officially.
Lowering TP target on AU to 0.7435. But this particular setup says it may drop all the way to the FE 100 below 0.74.
Looks like a bearish head and shoulders formation setting up and this is the last time AU will be at this level for a while.
Yeah, the larger Wave count is still pretty bearish so it won't go far either way. Just wish I'd stuck with the hourly. The bad part is I was looking at that chart earlier and even posted the hourly saying I was waiting on Wave 4 there...LOL! Then I got hung up on the 30 minute chart.
Oh well...grits or gravy, it's all good eatin.
Looks like I should have used the larger time frame to gauge the AU short entry. The entire Wave 3 movement is where the fib retrace tool would go and that would place the 71.6 short entry at 0.7498. That's one of the dangers of not keeping an eye on the larger time frames. But the entry isn't that far off so it's all good.
TP target remains the same either way though at 0.7440, just a few pips above the FE 61.8
AU Hourly...