is... a buy and hold investor of dividend US and Canadian stocks
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the tankers are being filled as we speak seems i have heard that before. Like the tankers that were sitting outside the buildingh at the first AGM in 2010 making it papear that sales were immientn? like those tankers?
they spent something like 2 Million dollars last year and produced nothing. THey are years away from making money. I doubt very much that they will be able to layt claim to being the first economically viable green process in history.
that is one of the weird things about what i think is a very odd press release. It should be obvious that it is viable, or else why do it and why announce it? THat is one of the things that makes it suspect in my mind. They should not have to state that it is viable... it is very strange..
I will be bakc to comment when I hae had ore time to read the press on this RKT "deal" more fully.
the processor works yes. of course it does.
the output can be called fuel. so what?
the lab results are not fraudulent, just meaningless.
I do believe they are selling somehting to somebody. Selling locally is peanuts.
RKT does not care whether JBI buikds those machines or not.
i thought that post was very interesting. obviously touched alot of nerves. I can answer for said poster.
Mainly, I want to comment on the last line, this supposed "deal" " with RKT.
This deal is fairly meaningless JBI is going to require capital (lots of it) in order to build those processors on RKT's sites. He will be going to investors again. Will this ever end? When is hOnest John simply going to make and sell some fuel profitably?
Notably, there is no customer is this supposed "deal". Similar to the marine situation, (Heddle) and that Florida gang, there is no paying customer, so we really have no idea what it means. Frankly, RKT could care less whether JBI builds those sites or not.
And remember that now the revenues in whatever the profitability model (profits/ costs) are cut in half. RKT gets half of everything. So JBI has to be really profitable. Is it revenues or profits?? If it is revenues, then the deal is almost surely a pile of garbage. JBI jhas not established what it's margins are, so how can they give away half of the rebvenues form anything?
ANd the costs of mining the plastic??? UGH.
This "deal" is meanmingless and designed to keep investors interested.
As for the other claims of fraud?? I think that some people just have such swelled heads that they will drive a company to the ground and may even be kidding themselves.
NotStocked.com has a new modus operandi... they are sending out their famed "Lightning Pick" the night before... they must have been scolded.
er... sorry..
HotStocked.com... LOLOLOLOL
So, I just have one queston... who is NOT suing JBI???
Better yet, what are investors doing in this environment??
Seems to me that where there is smoke, there is fire. If 4, no count 'em 6 law frms now are going after JBI and looking for shareholder support, there must be something to these allegations.
In the final analysis, will there be any money left in the company after all of these lawsuits run their cycle? I would imagine that there would be nothing left, as JBI has never been a cash hog.
Are the lawyers working on a commission basis? That is rare, which is why these lawsuits are so hard to believe.
How many shareholders here have signed up with the legal beagles??
we appear to have some action here. How significant is FDA approval??
Fine. if they did it with a small team like a bunch of entrepreneurs, paid them less than market rates, and got it by the auditing firm, great. My analysis is based on true long-term costs. In the long run they will face those costs.
my experience is the most valuable tool I have in evaluating JBI. Most industrial projects do not appear in the news. iN fact, hardly any. What is in the news, for anyone in the know, is gobbledy gook (?? sp.).
You might be right. I don't worry about GAAP day-to-day. If that is the case then the numbers provided in the Financial statements are wrong or overly optimistic if they are less than 1M. Then the accountants are wrong. Or the data they were given was wrong and they did not question it. Either way. Smart investors don't blindly believe Financial Statements.
I do not see where i am "dead wrong" at all. I have read about processor costs of 250k. Factoring that up and using my 12M job as an example, the capital cost of a P2O processor is over 1M.
What JBI has done I believe is to add a bit of labor on it and come up with a number like 500k. That is the latest I have read.
Dead right.
your belief in JBI is admirable. I sincerely hope that you are rewarded for it.
no i think they know how to add. estimating is a difficult science with no right or wrong answers. I am just saying that they are choosing to provide optimistiv figures. Only after a year or two of operation will the operating costs become clear to everyone and distinguishable from capital costs. Both will be higher than what JBI has stated they are. Operating vs project-related costs are not usually separated out on financial statements, so it is only after several years that the true economics of P2O will be apparent. My point is that the true capital/ operating costs can be hidden in financial reporting, the only indication being non-profitability.
Financial auditing firms make sure the books are according to GAAP. That is entirely different from internal management accounting. I have never seen a CMA comment on this board, or anyone attest to being a CMA. I do know how projects are costed inside companies.
Most use a structure (WBS) something like this:
Level 1:
Project amanagement and Business Analysis
Engineering
COnstruction
Equipment
Start-up and Commissioning
The most advanced place I have worked at had a structure with that at the top level and it went 5 levels deep. It collected costs very sccurately for every compoentn of the job. They knew exactly what the final cost and ROI would be on every job they did and that information never made it to the Financial Statements. Another thing to consider is that the primary motivation of an accountant is to reduce taxes. THat impacts how things are reported.
In ym job I interfac ewith financial people, obtain data from them, and sometimes report to them, but I know enough about accounting to be dangerous and could care less about GAAP. i manage cash and forecast expenditure.
Much of my assumptions about JBI are based on similar projects I worked on, the largest and most similar being worth $12 Million.
On that job there was a key piece of Equipment (much like the processor) that was worth $3M. Construction contracts were 4-5M. The remainder was spread out over the rest of it. Note that PM&BA, Engineering, and Start-up are all salaried positions.
According to GAAP, it is not necessary to report on a project basis. The costs above are spread through out the organization and reported as salaries everywhere. It would be impossible to separate the costs of building the P2oO machine vs. day-to-day operations, a distinction that companies make very clear internally, so that they know what projects are costing.
All I have read about JBI is the oost of the processor and then they add some additional money for some labor and call it done.
My approach is scientific, it is a common estimating approach called factoring. You take a similar job and apply the same ratios. In that $12M job the equipment was worth 3M, probably 4M all-in. Based on that and looking at percentages for the cost on construction contracts, etc, so you are easily over 1M for a P2O installation and I guessed 2M for 3 processors.
JBI can publish such numbers fairly easily, but in the construction or engineering world, no one will be fooled. It will be interesting to see how this rolls out and what the true numbers really are. You can bet that no one will purchase a P2O machine without doing an analysis looking at the components I have outlined above.
The fact that JBI has a machine shop makes it even more obtuse. I can't imagine how it helps him, although it may seem like a good idea at first blush.
There are 3 kinds if items required to build a P2O installation:
- Long Lead items (custom in nature, the processor)
- items which have to be ordered
- items which can be bought on-site (bulk items)
One would think that for rapid rollout of P2O, JBI would maximize the number of bulk and ordered items, and minimize the custom or long Lead items. Then why have a machine shop? All that accomplishes is increases the number of custom items, making it more costly, and making potential partners more reliant on jBI.
The issue is referred to as Constructability, which means exactly what it says. If JBI thinks that by making it complicated and custom that guarantees success, they are wrong. It is the opposite.
One unit which impressed me was the Envion unit. Based on the pictures I saw, it had a very small footprint and was very compact. It looks like it comes in a modular form which could be lifted neatly into place on-site with one lift. Modular construction is the way to go. I worked on a modular construction job some 5 years ago which involved 16 modules, all of them about the same size as the Envion unit.
At the very least JBI has to provide a BOM (Bill of Materials) to tell the JV partner what they need to order to build the unit, and a set of IFC drawings. From what I have read here JB does all the design himself and is protective of his knowledge, so how does that help JBI?
Hope that helps.
there is a difference between a financial audit and Capital Cost. 2 completely different things. Financial audit by an accounting firm means nothing.
Because that is just being prudent. find it odd that people have such faith in numbers promulgated by the company. Of course they are going to be for marketing purposes and not real!! A little bit of skepticism helps. If I look at 10-20 stocks and read their reports I may find a couple that really interest me...
Yes i think the Capital and Operating COst numbers provided by JBI are wrong. We will never know until several years from now when it won't matter anymore.
Further on the gate meeting.
I was there because I am a member of the Project Team. The purpose of the meeting is to assess whether it makes sense to continue the project. All of the Project Team and Stakeholders (key management team, etc) were there plus some consultants. As expensive and educated and experienced as the company can get. Purpose is to (in a friendly way) pick apart what is presented to the point where it is perfect and everybody agrees the company's money is being spent wisely. Outcome is to GO/ No Go.
Contrast this with JBI. JB owns the company and can do whatever he wants. There is no governance at all. He even can direct the BOD as far as I know. So he built the whole machine himself, did all the design, and admittedly is pretty smart. And probably him along with a few key sales people and family members have landed a few deals.
Well, no one person is smarter than a roomful of the best people available for hire. Part of learning to work in an organization is to accept criticism and be a team player. It takes maturity and builds true leadership.
What should that tell you about this company, these news reports, and the stock?
That is why I don't believe JB and in the JBI stock.
actually it is you who are dead wrong. The cost of the P2o machine includes all of the labor that goes into building the machine as well. That is all part of capital cost. If you look at my posts, you will see that I have always acknowledged that there is a piece of process equipment, the "processor" that I chose to be priced at 250k. Other equipment would bring the total figure for equipment up to 400 of 500k. Exactly what the books say. The books are accurate. The interpretation in your post is not accurate.
No matter what anybody says, the Capital Cost for a P2O installation is between 1 and 2 Million.
I beg to differ. My "experience" is very applicable. Industrial process equipment is similar enough across all applications that one can draw some conclusions fairly easily. I have been costing and managing such projects for the last 7 years straight. JBI has not accomplished much in the last year, and they have spent 25M doing it, with no meaningful production as of yet.
There is nothing to say JBIs technology is disruptive. I will believe that when I see it. They would be making money now if it were. Growing?? Hardly... I must have missed it. They just got permitted...
Today I was in a "Preliminary Feasibility Study" gate meeting. Get that word... "Pre-Feasibility".. it means before the Feasibility Study. Before taking a serious look, and way before true Engineering.
There was a COMPLETE list of the required permits on the wall, and we spent an hour talking about the schedule and the consequences of an EA was required...
When did that meeting occur at JBI I wonder?
of course they have... it is pure marketing.
I only know what I know from reading the same information available to you elecronically and my experience. I would not say anything without having experience to back it up. I have done Cost COntrol on construction projects on such plants, that is useful experience to make such statements. Things like footprint are hugely important.
First of all, I must say that as a general rule I do not invest in companies that are not close to breaking even. I have just observed that the markets are imperfect and the changes that a company makes for success, although they SHOULD be reflected in the stock price, are not. Especially in a downward market as we have been in for the majority of this year. I took Corporate Finance and all I relaly learned is that you can do ratio analysis until you are blue in the face, all that relaly matters is the eps. Every line of the I/S really boild down to the EPS. I personally think we are at the bottom of a cycle and that things will be up from here, perhaps with another low in September, October, which is seasonal.
To answer your questions:
- will JBI get more contracts? I have no idea. Every company announces contracts. In the whole scheme of things, it is not that important. I would say the chart is more important that news. Of course, how you react after the news and the impact on the chart is key. RIght now it is best to sell on news and let the stock settle. This does not seem to work with JBI, as the chart does not seem to be driven by news. I don't know what is driving it.
the deals I have seen are the kind of thing the blending plant could have gotten without P2O. Makes one wonder...
- will they produce the fuel they have guaranteed? yes, i believe they can produce fuel and sell it to somebody. i don't think they can be profitable.
- no I don't believe that they can produce fuel for the cost they have stated. There is no data to back that up.
- I have repeatedly posted that the capital cost of a P2o machine is in the 1-2 Million dollar range. That is based on my experience.
- no I don't think so.
- way over valued.
For sure. Only problem is, I can't go divulging that kind of information in this forum because of my business relationship with those entities.
If you look back at my posting history you will see many references to an industrial gases company I worked for where I worked on projects very similar to what JBI is doing, in that they were process-oriented and about the same dollar values (perhaps bigger). I learned the most about Project Management there. I have also worked in nuclear industries and am now in a new area that throws around more money than any other area I have been in.
I am accustomed to a company doing very thorough analysis before spending dime 1. It usually happens in stages and in the final stage the estimates being produced are accurate to 5% or 10%. My job after the final go-ahead is given is to ensure that cost and schedule targets are met. Without that, what is the point?
So here is what JBI did:
- promised some great things, appealed to alot of emotions, made some great promises
- got some money through private equity
- spent it to build a prototype
- validated the result through a lab test of which i am not knowledgeable enough to know the value of. I can read it as well as anyone else.
- has a few deals in the bag and has made alot of promises wrt future deals
- missed every timeline he has promised to investors
- has continually made greater promises instead of simply selling something sinmple
- missed the boat on permitting, causing a delay in building units 2 and 3, which would be unforgiveable in private industry.
- from what I can tell JB does everything himself and there are no drawings or construction packages that would allow this to be built tomorrow by a contractor.
- continues to promise greater things whilst not delivering sales. Where are the simple refinery sales??
Other than that, the fact he has no debt is actually a good thing. He could sustain this for a long time if he continues to promise greater things.
I would not call this stock a particularly good call right now.
BTW IFC = "Issued For Construction"
nothing has been proven.
Feedstock? there has been lots of speculation... but until I see meaningful production it is not proven to me.
Cost? Absolutely nothing has been proven.
Technology? Nothing has been proven. Just because a lab says something doe snot mean that the technology is anythign diffferent than what is commercially available today.
Buyers? they have a few... just a few.. every company needs deals to survive.
i would say not. it is a waiting game, this market. patience rewards. do you know how many stocks are out there to pick from and how to pick the winners? JBI has great ideas and inspires dreams.. but if they are not realizeable... what is the point?
ever thought how far JBI has to go to make money and justify the P/E from where it is now given what it has invested and where the SP is?
sure I have seen it. I believe there is even a video in existence.. no matter. It was certainly not a hive of activity I will tell you that. and the pictures that people have so proudly posted of a sprawling plant that has no concept of minimizing footprint.
well, maybe you are too quick to believe simple numbers that have not been proven. Those numbers come from JB himself or a very close source, or from some lab test. No, I don't believe it...
being a skeptic is not the same as not making sense.. there is too much information out there to be any other way. I like a sure thing.
not based on everything I have seen and heard on this company. Everything I have read indicates that JB does everything himself. Not a good sign for starters. Other than that the pictures of the inside of the plant indicate no thought to use of space or tight design.
Bu that is just one man's view from the security gate I guess.
I would look more at operating cost... don't you think? A few million is just the start.
Most of the investments I have been involved in evaluating in some sense have been some kind of modification to an existing plant, hence it is hard to evaluate JBI. JBI is not an operating plant, it is an experiment. i say that because it is a sprawling plant intended for demonstration and it is a prototype. There has been no thought as to such practical things as minimization of footprint, economical use of space, etc. There has been some work at optimization, but I have never seen any evidence of commercialization (creation of IFC drawings, for example).
Usually I see an ROI on 2 types of investments mainly:
- Sustaining = sustaining a level of production. I am involved with one now. Replacing capacity lost due to natural depletion.
- Growth = growing production, new plant.
JBI is neither of those categories. So... it has to be REALLY GOOD. I would have to see an airtight business case to trust this business to succeed. They have to repay the initial investment plus operate profitably.
Just sayin'.
TW... IFC is a professional sports league like MMA. Look it up on Google....
I don't need to.
I read it before. Like most PRs from JBI, they contain very little details and leave rather large holes up to the investors to fill.
Yes it could be called a "JV", but the fact is that the only agreement is for Heddle to provide the services to outfit the ship. No money changes hands until there is someone willing to pay. Sounds stupid, but those are the basics. Makes great PR. Heddle does nothing until someone decides to make an investment in a ship. That is a big investment.
Reminds me of my current workplace. We are paying an engineering firm to do a Study. Required to actually. It is to plan for a major investment over $100 Million. We are paying them $1M. I am managing it. The point of the study is to figure out exactly what the final ($100 Million) number is and what the ROI is.
Would you say that this is a "JV" and that whoever invests in my company will be rich because someone is sure to spend $100 Million?
Not likely.
An Engineering firm, like Heddle, just wants to keep their people busy and bill them out and they could care less who they bill them out to. For them to sign that agreement takes the stroke of a pen. No money changes hands.
And who says that his helping out to build the plant means anything? SO what? As long as he gets paid does he care? ANd he visited the plant? Well... sign me up.
Someone has to figure out whether or not Marine P2O makes sense. I have never seen an analysis of it.
Means nothing. Sound great.
I don't care about multi-million dollar fundings from governments when i make investment choices. Most companies that rely on handouts are losers.
Speaking of "superficial", you are correct I don't follow the stock much, but even I know that without a significant investor and backer the marine concept will never work. Having looked at the contracts over a year ago, it is obvious that Heddle is merely providing the outfitting service. They install the P2O processor. That is what they do. They charge for services provided much like a machine shop does or any other service provider.
They are not the JV partner. They are not the party interested in taking the risk of buying a boat, sailing it to the Garbage Patch or whereever, hiring a crew, acquiring the required permits, doing the research to find out what permits they need, etc, etc, etc.
But then again, it has been a year since i looked at it.
It is this kind of thing that makes great news, gets people going, and in the end means... nothing.
you are not making sense. Of course the marine thing was always a joke with JBI, only someone with no sense of what it takes to launch a marine venture would ever think that could be possible. But a Google search to confirm those articles to be ridiculous would only find them to be published by a highly respected scientific magazine. I picked it up at work, in distribution amongst the intelligentsia at my place of work... and opened it up right to that article.
Actually, my next venture might be a marine one... Offshore Oil & Gas!!! in Europe..
the marine thing was always clearly a media event only. The word "surreal" comes to mind.
I have found a few articles in a very respected scientific publication (Scientific American) that question one of the very premises of JBI's existence, the existence of the so-called Great Garbage Patch(s). Interesting articles that postulate that this is not as bad a problem as JBI would have you believe.
Here are some interesting links:
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=the-smallest-hitchhikers
http://www.scientificamerican.com/blog/post.cfm?id=ocean-garbage-patches-not-growing-s-2010-08-20
Besides which... whoever said that a small business like JBI could build and operate a fleet of tankers.. ?? the Garbage Patch thing has been pure publicity.
Article follows:
and like how is that going to happen... LOL.
well.. it looks as if JBII is performing exactly as I said it would... taking a nose-dive after the AGM. I am not sure exactly how the market mechaniSm works in these cases, but it sure is according to pattern...
The Big Guy calls it right again!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
LOOK OUT BELOW
TIMBRRRRR!!!!!!!
of course. what i meant was that as outside impartial Estimators, the consulting firm I worked for was given limited information and had to rely almost totally on photos. Perhaps for security/ access to information reasons.
than how come I took part in an estimating project with a couple of real pros and all we had to go on was pictures, because it was the inside of a nuclear reactor building? no drawings..