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Yep, I'm going to listen to the patient webinar later on.
After my last post I looked more closely and realized that today's presentation was just to OK a new board member.
Trying to access the webcast but having no luck. Anyone know if it's been canceled?
RNA: You agreed with me when I said IMHO it's at least a double, probably a few weeks ago. And I agree with your target.
I'm not good enough to trade it quickly in and out so I'm just holding my 10K shares at around $6 average.
The most informative, no-nonsense biotech board around is Biotech Values. The moderator, DewDiligence, has as his motto:
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated in any area of human knowledge!”
I just read (it's probably well-known to most people on this board) the 2011 Pulitzer Prize winner for general nonfiction, The Emperor of All Maladies: A Biography of Cancer by Siddhartha Mukherjee.
It's a well-written history of cancer research and treatment, mostly clinical but sometimes personal.
n.- Very glad to hear that, great trade, good for you.
I tend to take a large position in a stock that I've thoroughly researched and believe will eventually payoff, and then just hold. Though I greatly admire pure daytraders, I just don't have the stomach for it.
Still looking for at least $10 from RNA. Best of luck.
Gary
LLEN: Well, I don't know what that 500 share trade is about, but according to my Ameritrade account they are not trading.
Biomaven is one of the most experienced and knowledgeable biotech posters on iHub. Read his answer to my question: #msg-96031745
RNA: I see that a few reputable folks on Twitter are dismissing today's RNA news as mere data mining. Your thoughts appreciated.
LLEN: Yes,I did. Basically they're saying that they've hired an independent legal firm to investigate the situation, and that they're still communicating with the NAZ.
I'm glad to see that they're back trading, but you know very well that the one thing the market hates more than anything else is uncertainty!
Around $7 would be my WAG, but again I don't think that today's close is that important to longer-term holders.
Today's news was fundamentally excellent and though it might take awhile, the PPS will reflect it.
Best of luck.
LLEN: $1.26 - $1.74 bid/ask spread! I'd like to just get rid of my shares, but I may wait a bit to see what happens.
Don't confuse price action based on short-term trading with more fundamental, science-based moves.
Today it's the traders cashing in, and good for them. I'm not saying anything against SRPT--they've also got a promising drug in the works--but RNA is on the way back up, it just may be more gradually.
Best of luck!
Congrats to you, good trade.
Actually, I think that RNA is going to at least $10 in the next month if not sooner, so I'm holding until then.
Both companies are working on the same disease--Duchenne muscular dystrophy--but using different drugs. This walking test that SRPT's drug did well on is the same test that RNA's drug did poorly on, causing the big collapse.
I'm afraid that this news will hurt RNA, but who knows.
mcbio- Typo in my last post re RNA: of that = for that. I meant to say that even if GSK admitted they made a trial design error, it makes no sense for them to walk simply for that reason.
No sweat, I also have a full position.
When you have a chance, share your thoughts on LLEN. I'm stuck with a few thousand shares and wondering what's going to happen with it.
RNA: From J.P. Morgan Healthcare Confab News Dump: RNA is rated HOLD, based on 5 Wall Street analysts' reports. Analysts have an average $6.68 Target Price on RNA, implying 34.9% Upside to its current price of $4.95.
There's also a fair amount of buyout talk. Yesterday's situation with GSK and disapersen (RNA's lead drug) doesn't help, but they've got a full pipeline.
m.- I'm also still holding a rather large bag of RNA. Two questions, for you or anyone else interested:
1. While their PR yesterday said that they regained the rights to disapersen, I think that the FierceBiotech headline more accurately captures the reality of the situation: "GSK dumps a failed muscular dystrophy drug back in Prosensa's lap."
Since their pipeline is far from empty, why not simply admit that disapersen didn't work out, and move on?
2. More generally, just musing, it seems to me that biotechs can get too attached to a failed drug, almost in a weirdly personal way, and can't let them go. I realize that an enormous amount of time and money is spent in R&D, but the drug is not your child-it’s a cold hard business decision-stop pouring good money after bad.
The headline of this FierceBiotech article doesn't sugarcoat the situation and tells it like it is: GSK dumps a failed muscular dystrophy drug back in Prosensa's lap.
http://www.fiercebiotech.com/story/gsk-dumps-failed-muscular-dystrophy-drug-back-prosensas-lap/2014-01-13
The key word is dump, because that's what it is. GSK saw very little chance of approval. Prosensa absolutely did not terminate the agreement since it's the last thing they wanted.
I really can't see what Prosensa is going to do with drisapersen--try and find another partner I guess or even file again on its own with the FDA--but IMHO they'd be better off just to write it off and focus on the other stuff in their pipeline.
I'm hoping that there's a dead cat bounce to around $5 in the next few days and then I'm going to eat my big loss and move on.
Prosensa has 8 other drugs in their pipeline besides drisapersen, they're a well-managed serious biotech company and not some little scam, so eventually they'll recover.
But this is a major, major setback.
Re LLEN: truthfully, I've basically resigned myself to getting zero for my shares. Anything above that will be a pleasant surprise.
SK: I was jumping in and out of LLEN and got caught holding a few thousand shares when it was halted.
I know that you've played it before and are quite familiar with it; when you have the time, any thoughts would be appreciated. -OB
OT: Perhaps a corollary to item #18 on the Common Biotech-Newbie Mistake list:
I'm deep underwater on 10K shares of RNA but still confident that eventually things will work out. I should have waited a few months before purchasing, but that's the market; IMHO, given the current PPS, compelling valuation is quite an understatement.
Best of luck!
RNA...Great trade, you've got a good system going and you work it with discipline.
I've got a huge chunk tucked way back on my top shelf, just going to hold it for IMHO a sure double, but might not be until Spring.
OT: He took a chance that Denver would not score a touchdown, which under the NFL's modified sudden death system would have ended the game (IMO the NCAA system is superior.) He was counting on a field goal at worse, which would have allowed the Pats to go four downs every series towards a tying field goal or winning touchdown. As mentioned in the previous discussion, it's an advantage on par with receiving the ball first.
RNA...Agree 100%. One of my largest holdings, just keeping it on the back burner, will be a double from here.
In a national campaign, the weight issue is going to hurt him in a lot of states. Maybe in NJ it's a joke, but on the West Coast it won't be so funny. He needs to keep losing.
RNA beyond ridiculous. This is no longer punishment, it's abuse.
OT:
a.- Glad to hear that overall you made some money. As I said last week when we exchanged messages about AMD, I think that the company is great but the stock price was looking a bit toppy around $4.
Let me know when you get back in, I'd be interested.
andeliminatepunctuation
LLEN...I'm still holding a good-sized position. You still in?
FDA has ever renigged on an SPA before...
To nig once is hard enough, but to do it again...
Actually, I don't think it depends on either of those things.
It's going straight into the shitter tomorrow, and eventually to zero, because the company is finished.
I also feel for the longs, but I'm sure you're familiar with the origin of the "koolaid" metaphor we all use. No survivors.