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IMO it is all about the conversion of the B preferreds
The higher the PPS, the less common shares for the B preferreds
Let's say the Ask looks like this:
2.89 <----- 1000 shares
2.25 <----- 3000 shares
2.20 <----- 1.9 million(!)
2.19 <----- 3000 shares
If someone wants to buy 3000 shares and sets a limited order to 2.19, he would get his 3000 shares for 2.19
Now the 2.19 is gone and the Ask looks like this:
2.89 <----- 1000 shares
2.25 <----- 3000 shares
2.20 <----- 1.9 million(!)
If someone wants to buy 50.000 shares and sets a 2.25 limit, the order should be executed at 2.20, because someone wants to sell 1.9 million shares at 2.20
The new Ask is
2.89 <----- 1000 shares
2.25 <----- 3000 shares
2.20 <----- 1.85 million(!)
As long as someone puts enough shares at the 2.20, he can create a "fake wall" there and prevent the PPS from rising.
Hmm, the facts are:
1) On Monday, CDEL showed up with 1987K shares @2.20 at the Ask
2) Monday and Tuesday we had a high Short Volume Ratio of more than 70% (http://shortvolume.com/ enter WMIH and set time period to 5 days)
3) Wednesday and Thursday the PPS stayed BELOW the 2.20, and the Short Volume Ratio was only 5% (Wednesday) and 40% on Tuesday which means no shares from CDELs 1987K order @2.20
4) On Friday the PPS reached the 2.20 again, and CDEL could continue its sale from the Ask at 2.20, and the Short Volume Ratio increased to 81%, its highes value since early 2013!
Seems very strange to me. But if you assume the short volume date is accurate, then the conclusion must be that CDEL is shorting WMIH
These are the facts, but one can only speculate about their reasons...
That means 319,133 out of 394,173 (total volume for Friday) were short sales.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortsale.asp
Somebody sells borrowed shares he/she doesn't own, and has to buy them back later...
Good or bad? Hmm, for me it seems CDEL (who has a 1987K order at the Ask for 2.20 for the last 3 or 4 days) wants to PREVENT the stock from exceeding 2.20 with this short sales at all costs.
For which benefit? I don't know...
WMIH: Accum/Dist at new all-time high
On Friday the Accum/Dist line reached the new all-time high (together with the highest Short Volume Ratio of 81% since early 2013)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WMIH&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p31638295410
WMIH:Highest Short Volume Ratio for 2.5 years! 81%
On Friday the Short Volume Ratio was 81%, the highest value since early 2013
http://otcshortreport.com/index.php?index=wmih&action=view#.VLKABSuG9ED
Or better here:
http://shortvolume.com/ and enter WMIH and the time period
BBANBOB, 5 day old TPG article
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-05/tpg-capital-said-to-near-halfway-mark-on-10-billion-fund.html
...
In its final megadeal, a March 2008 bailout of savings bank Washington Mutual, $1.35 billion mostly from TPG’s 2006 and 2008 funds was erased when the government seized the lender the same year.
...
You are right, they did not SELL IMO. But I said "paid secretly" to keep their mouth shut and GO AWAY to enable the selling of a multi-billion company for only 1.9 bln. to JPMC
WMIH is not on the Pinks, but on OTCQB. But I think that doesn't change anything according to reporting.
But I agree, IF they didn't sell AND not got paid secretly, one must assume they are still holding a major part of WMIH (and of course tons of ESCROWS)
What if TPG got paid secretly by JPMC/FDIC to keep silent?
Basically there must have been enough money to pay TPG and make them go away...
IF TPG signed releases and got WMIH shares and escrows, they would still be a majority holder of WMIH. Could this be kept secret legally???
So my guestimation based on these facts is:
1) Announcement of M&A (acquisition) probably in Jan. or Feb.
2) Definitive execution of M&A not before March 20, but rather shortly thereafter than towards June or July
3) Exercise of warrants/conversion of A preferreds probably all at the day of definitive M&A (which also means automatic conversion of B preferreds) to trigger only ONE "Test Event"
Could you go along with that?!?
Yes incredible accum/dist peak for the last two days, near to the all-time high
Chart (acum/dist behind PPS):
http://scharts.co/1BTei6Y
UncleBo, they love to make money on the spread...
If the MMs buy 250.000 at $2.17 and sell for $2.18, or if they start shorting at $2.18 and cover at $2.17, they earn $2500.
This is what is happening at the moment IMO, at least with the 1987K position from CDEL(which only showed up some seconds and then was changed to a small value) at $2.20 at the ask.
Read paragraph to the end of the post, IMO it explains exactly what is happening:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=108599259
That means they can theoretically be converted/exercised at any time
KKR'filing
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/933136/000110465915001042/xslF345X02/a3.xml
Explanation of Responses:
1. The Series A Convertible Preferred Stock are immediately convertible.
4. The warrants are immediately exercisable.
I would only like to discuss the two possibilities. My favorite scenario would be an acquisition in the next few weeks, but it is beyond my power. My interests as a shareholder are not aligned with WMIHs interests. If there are prudent reasons why WMIH cannot do the acquisition before March 20, then we have to deal with it.
My personal solution is accumulation. Like BlueFoxx I am happy I bought on Dec. 31 again, and if it really takes until July, I will buy end of each month again...
Thanks for the confirmation. Now as we know KKR agreed to convert/exercise the A preferreds/the warrants on March 21 at the earliest (or later), AND the B preferreds will automatically be converted when an M&A takes place (within 180 days from Jan. 5, which means no later than July 5), which scenario is more likely:
1) M&A before March 20
2) M&A after March 20 and no later than July 5
Could it be 2) because they want to trigger only ONE "Testing Event" (which is not possible in 1) )???
TIA
Warrants not exercised and A prefs not converted yet IMO
According to http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/933136/000110465915001040/a15-1349_3sc13d.htm
KKR Side Letter
On December 19, 2014, the Issuer entered into a Letter Agreement (the “Side Letter”) with KKR Fund Holdings and KKR Management Holdings L.P. Pursuant to the Side Letter, KKR Fund Holdings and KKR Management Holdings L.P. agreed, as applicable, not to (i) convert any or all of the Series A Preferred Stock, (ii) exercise the right to acquire Common Stock of the Issuer, in whole or in part, under any of the Warrants, or (iii) offer, sell, assign, transfer, or otherwise dispose of any of the Series A Preferred Stock or Warrants, in either case until on or after March 20, 2015.
Boris, we had 72% short volume ratio on Jan. 5 when CDEL showed up with 1987K at the Ask for 2.20 and the 2.20 "flatline" started, and we had 70% yesterday.
The total volume for Jan. 5 was 671,089 (short volume 483,952), and the total volume for Jan. 6 (yesterday) was 659,454 (short volume 466,707).
So I think it is safe to assume all the 1987K from CDEL are short sells IMO
Is this assumption correct?
http://otcshortreport.com/index.php?index=wmih&action=view#.VK12xSuG9ED
Golden cross in a few days!!!
1.12 million (!) single trade @ 2.17
http://cdn1.boardpost.net/quote.php
Dr. Acharya also was the one who valued the assets of Washington Mutual at 145 bln. $ (JPM bought WaMu for only 1.9 bln. in the crisis 2008) and objected to the POR, but it was no help for the shareholders of WMI.
The objection:
http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0812229/0812229100603000000000011.pdf
I only want to say, the Government or the courts don't really care what he writes IMO...
Blue, even for shareholders who bought WAMUQs for let's say 0.10$ it wasn't really "fair & reasonable", if WMIH shares were the only thing they got after Ch11 (1:29,xxx). WMIH traded at 1$ and then at 0.50$ for a while.
Not to mention the pre-holder who paid 10$/share or more.
It might become "fair & reasonable" if escrows get paid...
You are joking, the 3-year trend and the accum/dist line are beautiful
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WMIH&p=D&yr=2&mn=10&dy=0&id=p30099326830
Put a line below the PPS, the PPS never broke it to the downside...
It was exactly 1987K (1.987 million) from CDEL showing up at the Ask yesterday for a few seconds. Then 3000 were traded, Ask reduced to 1984K, then CDEL changed Ask to 100 to hide it...
L2 Video at 0:44 - 0:46
72% short volume ratio yesterday, the highest value since Feb. 2014.
So it seems to me most or all of the 2.20$ trades by CDEL are short sells. Any other good explanations?!?
http://shortvolume.com/ and enter WMIH
Yes it is gone now. It stayed there a few minutes, and then was withdrawn. Or perhaps it has been traded, and we will see it after-hours as Form-T trade, like the 3.9 million in Nov. 2014...
1.9 million at the Ask @ 2.20
http://cdn1.boardpost.net/quote.php
RBS Said to Settle U.S. Mortgage Probe as Early as First Quarter
http://www.sddt.com/News/article.cfm?SourceCode=20150105fc&_t=RBS+Said+to+Settle+US+Mortgage+Probe+as+Early+as+First+Quarter#.VKqdcyuG9EA
Exactly! Nothing big, only a press release that the deal is finalized. So far-fetched?!?
And how do you call this one from Dec. 19, 2014, a few days ago?
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/wmi-holdings-announces-pricing-of-private-offering-of-600000-shares-of-300-series-b-convertible-preferred-stock-300012701.html
...
This press release is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any securities, in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such jurisdiction. Any offers of the securities have been made only by means of a private offering memorandum.
...
Hmm the US Treasury could end the net sweep and use this settlement money to capitalize Fannie and Freddie instantly. But I guess this is only a wishful dream...
Yes, you are right, being on the OTC is a problem. We could see it yesterday, when the PPS for retail shareholder was 2.20, and the two 100k trades went through @ 2.10.
It is important to uplist or buy a company that already has a ticker symbol on NASDAQ or NYSE, the sooner, the better! After uplisting (or before), it is important to leave the "penny stock status" (which means PPS > $5) according to SEC:
http://www.sec.gov/answers/penny.htm
Then many funds are allowed to buy WMIH, which should boost the PPS again...
As soon as the B-pref deal is closed (I expect a press release Monday after-hours) and WMIH has nearly $600 million more cash to acquire a company, the volume should increase in anticipation of an M&A (LBO).
We could easily see a volume of 4M shares/day or more again, like December 2013 and March 2014.
I expect a second LBO in 2015 and from now on an increasing PPS, all IMO
Volume increasing, more than 300k between 2.23 and 2.25
http://cdn1.boardpost.net/quote.php
Some insiders buying?!?!
Hmm probably the fact that the KKR/Citigroup deal will close next Monday 05/01/2015 and after it WMIH will have nearly $600 mln. more than before to acquire a profitable company to use the (at least) $5.8 bln. NOLs
247k trade @ 2.20
http://cdn1.boardpost.net/quote.php
Hope we get a little run before Monday when the KKR/Citigroup deal closes...
Nice, last trade @ 2.25
Bid/Ask 2.16 / 2.25
http://cdn1.boardpost.net/quote.php
Weekly MACD about to turn positive
The MACD in the weekly chart is negative since April 2014. Now it is about to cross the zero line (-0.011 at the moment) and become positive, either this Friday or next week.
http://scharts.co/177kNcR
LG, Fidelity knows the symbol WMIHP already (click on the link), but it seems to be "inactive" at the moment
https://quotes.fidelity.com/webxpress/popup_lookup.phtml?scCode=E&bondLookup=TREASA&searchFor=wmih&criteria=wmih&contKey=0&for=stock&by=all&productid=webexpress&rows=&sortBy=volume&sortOrder=D&reqforlookup=REQUESTFORLOOKUP
I think they will buy a company (e.g. Capmark) including its ticker symbol and use it (or change its name). Uplisting would be more complicated...
New ticker symbol WMIHP for 144A Class B Preferred Stock
A poster on a German board found it yesterday...
here on OTC Markets:
http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/WMIHP/quote
or here:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=WMIHP&insttype=Stock
or here:
http://financials.morningstar.com/preferred/quote.html?t=WMIHP