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Which will take 3 yrs to design, recruit and complete minimum. And then needing approval, so any chance of sp apreciation in the near term is gone, and Retts has to be great for any chance of PA which now will happen only after pediatric trial.
Today's price action is why I've been saying, not until revenue do we see sp appreciation. Too many pumpers helping inflate the sp so the shorts can jump in at the first opportunity. And with Dr M running his mouth, and cherry picking data, it will be a while before any kind of approval. I hope Retts is better.
Where is CDR-COA? Was sleep an endpoint? Was it stat sig?
Safe yes, but so is placebo. Effective? Apparently the jury is still out. With all the talk of how much it will help mankind, it needs approval to get there. With Dr M and his idea of stat sig not meeting standard defination, I expect that Anavex will get some sideways looks in the future from any Government approval agency when trial results are reported. You have said 2023 is when you expect to see meaningful sp appreciation. I think after today more like 2028 if ever. If Rett doesn't blow it out of the water, we see sub $2 and I will be long gone.
Everybody said Dr M knows what stat sig is. Apparently not!! You say it was "almost there" only .004 off. Bottom line he lied. We will be lucky if this doesn't go below 3 by end of Nov. I said Dr M doesn't understand how important integrity is to shareholders and now I am even more convinced. No one made him say stat sig, he didn't even have to come out with pr. Why do so then lie about stat sig?
I was just referencing the fact that so many times Dr M has presented at different conferences or quarterly meetings, just to hear the same old data. If what is presented at the CTAD on Nov 6 is truly "tip of the iceberg" quality, then it will have evidence that is be tangibly evident that future trials for different indications should be successful.
Just Dr M said PDD trial was going to be done last year. Yeah it states 2021 so I gave it a few years to account for math by Dr M.
Truth is I don't think we see any sp improvement from AD for 5-7 years at least. Any sp appreciation near term (2-3 years) will have to come from PA of Retts and maybe a bit later PDD.
No approval for 2-3 years and sp hopefully of 40 .
We shall see. I have no faith in Dr M's understanding of the market. I believe Anavex has trememdous potential, but I am a few years from retiring so I can wait and stay long. I'm a lot more realistic about sp in regards to tomorrow's presentation than a lot of folks here. Too many times we have been fooled by Dr M's statements about "tip of the iceberg" stats with same old rehashed data. I hope for once it's different but I doubt it.
I actually spoke with Clint the day after the nothing burger 11am CC. He said what's the big deal? The time of the CC was just for convenience sake. I can believe that Dr M thinks the results are outstanding, but that has happened before and the stock tanked while Dr M waved pom poms like a cheer leader and couldn't understand the frustration of share holders because of information that was presented was vague at best.
I don't think Dr M understands how important tomorrow is. He believes the results are great, but what he thinks is irrelevant. What matters is what the scientific community thinks and investors think.
I pray Dr M understands stat sig. When they had their CC at 11 am they had no understanding of the expectations of shareholders who thought that it meant something of consequence. If Dr M has a softball presentation this could drop to 2 bucks.
I agree. Everybody predicting "too da moon" sp jumps, when in reality it will probably drop below $6. That's just the way things are for Anavex. Eventually after readouts from 2nd Retts trial (which needs to be exceptional) and there is real revenue potential from realistic expectation of PA, then we may see sp appreciation that can be sustained.
As much as I would like to see sp grow based on the small trials Anavex has had, realistically sp will only grow after revenue is realized.
I don't plan on selling anything until I retire which will be 2023 at the earliest, and by then I am hoping that Anavex will have a market cap of 3 billion plus and hopefully the outstanding shares will be less that 100 million. I may sell a little then but I doubt it as I have other investments for revenue if need be. I am hoping to see a 10 billion market cap before the next 10 years, and with some revenue coming in the outstanding shares will be reasonable, then I will probably sell.
Are you saying that you don't see that they are scheduled for Friday Nov 6 at 11 a.m.? It's there plain as day. Just scroll down to Friday and the events for that day. Not sure what you are saying. I feel I was fortunate to increase my position by about 30% this morning. I have invested all I care to in one company, however I feel that the opportunities that are possible for Anavex in the future (2-5 years) is something I cannot miss. I have a couple of years until retirement so I can wait.
Maybe I missed someone else's post but I read in wall st journal that test for regeneron in sickest covid 19 patients was halted due to safety concerns.
Is it possible for UK and others to ask to see what the DSMB saw at the 1/2 way point of the CD12 trial to determine their own course of action?
There will be a lot of traders that will sell, and I will sell a small percentage at 100, but if it goes like I and most longs think it will, then I plan on a long highly profitable ride.
MC of 3 billion by next summer would be fantastic by me!
So what do you think should the mc be in 1 year with all the indications you mentioned?
As I stated earlier. If given a decent sp by Nov 1 (sub $6) I am looking to add 30-40% more to my holdings due to some employee stock options I have maturing.
I believe it is as well, and if excellent results are presented on Rett before end of quarter as stated, what impact to the sp is possible?
Does anybody think they will do the same for Rett? I hope they release TLD as I feel the data will not be as large as PDD. Should investors expect data or will procrastination become the norm regarding any future readouts?
At first I was upset at lack of numbers. Now after listening to call I am hopeful that numbers will not be released until after Nov 1 as I will have more funds available due to options maturation to buy more and I want as cheap a price as possible. "Stat sig" is a phrase I am willing to average up on.
I don't think if a offer of 3-5 billion were made that it would be turned down. Especially if it is done pre approval or pre revenue. How can you fault shareholders for that? Obviously when money starts coming in from multiple approvals, it could be very expensive for potential buyers so big pharma will push FDA and other governments to keep 2-73 away from patients to keep price down until they get the deal they want. Money talks, BS walks.
Very interesting how big pharma money influences decisions from governments for benefits of shareholders. Been going on for decades. Do you think Anavex has a chance against this kind of money as the positive evidence that 2-73 has across multiple indications mounts? What is the reaction of different pharma's going to be if Rett comes out as we hope? These big pharma's are not going to let their cash cow be threatened.
Do you or anybody have any idea when? What conference or peer reviewed journal? Does anybody think it will be this year?
I agree 100% It's just like always. Dr M has to have the spot light, forget shareholders. It wouldn't have been difficult at all for just top line data, rather than "clinically meaningful". If it is good as people are expecting it would have been at least 2 or 3 points up and all this haggling over what is the p value would be moot
Finally!!! If this volume continues through the day, I don't think $5 options are going to mean much.
Apparently the statement of putting up money for future possible trials means more to some than others. Easy to pledge money for future trials when results haven't shown there will be any. Show the results then let's see how much money there really is.
The results will be fair at best, but they will try to be timed to coincide with Rett. I think Missling believes Rett will be the savior of 2-73 and will try to get a PA from that. So then with so so results from PDD he can get a phase 3 trial, and maybe a partner to ease the expense.
Did we see results before Oct?
Indiscretion NOT! His statements were false pure and simple!
If he makes statements that people become shareholders by listening to them, that are false, explanation of statements is not placating, it's taking responsibility.
This is why Dr M is good COO and bad CEO. He understands trials and science, but not how to manage business of a public company. He exhibits a lack of caring or interest in shareholder value and doesn't feel responsible for lies that people listen to and buy shares not knowing his disdain for clarity.
Wrong! When info exist that is pertinent for shareholders he is obligated to release it. Such as the reason for delaying data release after multiple times stating a deadline for such release. Are they in negotiations with possible partner or maybe some licensing agreement. He gave the date, he is responsible to shareholders as to why it wasn't met. I know people who bought based on his statements. That is material information.
I agree. The only reason we haven't heard results yet is because Missling is trying to put a positive spin on this. I feel he isn't sure PDD results will be received so great so he is delaying to try to get close to Rett readouts which he hopes are good so investors will stick around.
All this talk about the future and possible partners. I have NO faith in Dr M whatsoever. I feel the science is something that could help a lot of people so that's why I'm long. However ir will be many years before anything gets to potential patients and most here will be long gone by then. Dr M is consistent in that he will hype, but never deliver the knockout.