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The Lemmings are finally selling at the Ask and not bid-whacking. Maybe there's still some hope for Commons after all!
Anyone buying after today won't get Treble Damages either. So that's another reason to purchase before the inevitable ER occurs.
$5 by next Friday?
Ask the SCOTUS Judges how they feel about the Warrants.
Someone should email Cooper & Kirk and make sure they raise this question on December 9th.
The bad news keeps coming. Someone ask that knucklehead how the Pandemic would affect a lame-duck resolution.
That makes no sense at all. They either get it done in Lame Duck or it's Curtains for Commons pending a miracle at SCOTUS.
It will be dependent on how SCOTUS rules (assuming this isn't settled beforehand). SCOTUS could just make Calabria removable at will and say the NWS is not ultra vires. Would Commons go up in that scenario?
There seems to be a Common misunderstanding of what SCOTUS can actually do. Thankfully, December 9th isn't far away and the GSE's 1-hour of Glory will quickly come to a conclusion.
Then, it'll be up to the SCOTUS judges to determine what needs to be done. They won't be taking into account Tim Howard's Amicus or any other briefs,. It's their job to interpret the law as it was written, not to listen to other's input.
What they decide won't be able to be challenged and everything will be set in stone at that time. Including shareholder's fate, to a large degree at least.
Let's hope our Lawyers are ready to cover absolutely everything in those 60 minutes
False. If they could not have gotten back the bailout money, then the GSEs would have been thrown in Receivership since they would've failed. Which makes the Treasury's Warrants worthless.
Now you can see why the Warrants were not collateral.
Interesting. I feel Commons are in much more of a predicament than Jr. Preferreds, who still have Lamberth's Court to look forward to regardless of the outcome of SCOTUS and POTUS Election.
Even if SCOTUS gets this right, which is a coin flip in itself, that doesn't necessarily mean Commons will go up.
Not to mention, if there's a need to rush the Recap, the SPS Cramdown Plan may be implemented which obliterates existing Commons value.
Either way, FNMA is probably a buy under $1. See you in December!
This should be stickied.
Directly from the Treasury's website:
https://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/hp1131.aspx
With the Jr. Preferreds' eventual Conversion to Commons, I unfortunately have to also follow FNMA.
I imagine most JPS will immediately dump their Commons after Conversion, but I may want to keep some for the long haul.
The price of Jr. Preferreds suggests otherwise.
Maybe with 1:10 Reverse Split FNMA sees $20. It's not going to $20 from $2 without a Reverse Split. Sorry!
Because they saved the GSEs from Receivership. Of course they're going to get a huge discount on the exercise price of the Warrants.
That ship has long sailed. Anyone not assuming the Warrants will be exercised is going to be in for a rude awakening next year.
Irrational Exuberance tends to do that. Then the Market started to realize the amount of Dilution required to recap the GSEs.
It has since priced Commons accordingly.
Unfortunately, this formula isn't factoring in the Warrants.
Tutt126 is right. $4-6 is the likely range Commons end in, adjusting for the inevitable Reverse Split of course.
Top reasons FNMA isn't being held at $2:
1. Because MM Manipulation
2. Because they want your shares
3. Because Hedge Funds need time to load up
4. Because large buyers are accumulating without driving the price up
5. Because of Naked Shorting
Top reasons FNMA is being held at $2:
1. Because there's too much uncertainty over the final share count of Commons
2. Because Commons will be heavily diluted in practically every scenario imaginable
3. Because Treasury may decide to implement the Sr. Preferred Cramdown Plan crushing Commons to sub-$0.50
4. Because even a positive SCOTUS ruling might not benefit Commons much
The list goes on, but those are the primary reasons.
Nah, just lots of FNMA Sellers and non-believers.
Until we know the final share count, don't expect Commons to do much more than Pop & Flop on Irrational Exuberance.
Not a recco
Even Tim sold his Commons and bought JPS. It's pretty telling when the ex-CFO of Fannie Mae sells his Commons to buy Jr. Preferreds.
It's hard to argue with these FNMA Facts!
The Market figured this out way before us Average Joes did. The Market is screaming Commons are going to be diluted heavily and the price of the offering may even be lower than where Commons are currently trading.
If I was heavy into Commons, I'd be rethinking that decision right about now
Bove figured it out again. Excellent!
Sounds like he's expecting Taxpayers to be compensated for the Sr. Preferreds.
The SPS Cramdown Plan is what should keep all of us FNMA Average Joes up at night. That makes Commons worth less than $0.50, likely less than $0.25.
Quick, get Judge Steele on the phone and ask if he can speak with Mark Warner about how the NWS Dividends should be used to write down the value of the Sr. Preferreds
The price would go up if there were enough Buyers. Unfortunately, there are way too many Sellers down here around $2.
Someone should ask Judge Steele his thoughts on how this will affect FNMA.
Didn't Navy used to be Pen Pals with Judge Steele? Maybe he can get in touch with the Judge so Myron can provide some invaluable insight to us Average Joes.
Celebrating? He supported stopping the Net Worth Sweep.
Toomey was also the first senator to say shareholders deserved compensation.
https://www.valuewalk.com/2015/05/fannie-mae-senator-toomey-speaks-out-against-the-sweep/
If 10/9 ER doesn't happen, I'm selling FNMA and buying more Jr. Preferreds.
Most respondents were assuming a 1:10 Reverse Split it seems.
Scary thought, but quite possible.
It's hard to argue with these FNMA Facts.
Too many to list. There are ~40 JPS series all with different values ranging from $25, $50, and even $100,000.
Wow, can we sticky this!?
Bove:
The perpetual GSE Dividend would be a good guess.
But I imagine if Mnuchin finds a way to block that, then Biden may just decide to execute the Sr. Preferred Cramdown Plan and obtain ~99% of the Common stock in both GSEs.
That will be plenty of money for his ACA aspirations.
Don't rule out sub-$1 post election
Whole lot of uncertainty for Commons heading into November. A Trump wins means we wait to see what SCOTUS thinks and they may reverse everything we accomplished in the 5th Circuit.
A Biden win practically assures the Sr. Preferred Cramdown Plan assuming Mnuchin is ready to act. SPS Cramdown leaves Commons around $0.25-0.50.
Either way, it's coming amigos!
Excellent FNMA Facts. Too many Pop Sellers in FNMA still.
Need to churn here in the low-$2s/high-$1s for another few years before Commons can break out of their long-term holding pattern due to uncertainty over outstanding shares.
Doesn't look good for Commons if this information were to come up in the next debate.