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"The present invention relates to methods of activate an isoform of protein kinase C (PKC) for the treatment of neurological diseases including Alzheimer's disease and stroke using cyclopropanated or epoxidized derivatives of mono- and polyunsaturated fatty acids. The present invention also relates to methods of reducing neurodegeneration using cyclopropanated or epoxidized derivatives of mono- and polyunsaturated fatty acids."
http://patft.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=PTO2&Sect2=HITOFF&u=%2Fnetahtml%2FPTO%2Fsearch-adv.htm&r=1&p=1&f=G&l=50&d=PTXT&S1=Alkon-Daniel-L.INNM.&OS=IN/Alkon-Daniel-L&RS=IN/Alkon-Daniel-L
That's one patent. Here's a list of the other patents that have been granted:
http://patft.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=PTO2&Sect2=HITOFF&u=%2Fnetahtml%2FPTO%2Fsearch-adv.htm&r=0&p=1&f=S&l=50&Query=IN%2FAlkon-Daniel-L.&d=PTXT
Here's a list of patents that have been filed but not granted yet:
http://appft.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=PTO2&Sect2=HITOFF&u=%2Fnetahtml%2FPTO%2Fsearch-adv.html&r=0&p=1&f=S&l=50&Query=IN%2FAlkon-Daniel-L&d=PG01
Bryostatin having a shot isn't even the most exciting part. It's the fact that this may be a new way of treating neurodegenerative diseases by activating the defense mechanism that's already inside our brains.
Not to mention the granted PKC activator patents that give us a monopoly over the market for at least another 15 years.
This whole situation is completely nuts.
Very interesting to see Resveratrol mentioned here, a molecule known for its anti-aging effects.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25640851
Makes sense that it has neuroprotective features if it's a PKC modulator.
Side note: The recording starts at around 11:03 AM. Bryostatin is first mentioned around 11:40 AM (37 minutes in).
Might explain why the stock price jumped 20 minutes later.
Oppenheimer Alzheimer's Key Opinion Leader Call - July 19, 2019:
https://instaud.io/3Y1R
Too bad they botched the data release and got everyone upset lol.
No wonder they replaced the previous CEO.
I don't think so. Just the call on Friday.
"Neurotrope/Oppenheimer KOL Call"
Dear Fellow Neurotrope Investors,
We are looking forward to the Alzheimer's Association International Conference in Los Angeles being held July 14-18th 2019. Chief Executive Officer, Dr. Charles Ryan, will be presenting Neurotrope's poster on Wednesday, July 17th at 1:00p Pacific time. The poster will be available from 9:30 AM-4:15PM that day.
Following the AAIC, Neurotrope's Chief Scientific Advisory Board members Dr. Martin R. Farlow and Dr. Marwan Sabbagh will be hosting a KOL call with Oppenheimer's Biotech team. Dr. Farlow is a Professor Emeritus in the Department of Neurology and co-director of the Alzheimer's Disease Center at Indiana University. Dr. Sabbagh is the director of the Cleveland Clinic Lou Ruvo Center for Brain Health.
The call will take place immediately following the AAIC meeting.
Oppenheimer's Biotech Team invites you to a Conference Call:
Alzheimer Experts Provide Insights on Recent Data
When: Friday July 19, 2019
Time: 11:00 AM Eastern Time
Dial in Numbers:
US/Canada (800) 344-0695, passcode 2687039
International (706) 679-5238, passcode 2687039
Sincerely,
Susan Roberts
sr@roberts-communications.com
202-779-0929
No.
"According to Forest’s package insert for Namenda in the United States, peak concentrations of memantine are reached within 3–7 h of oral ingestion for tablets and its terminal elimination half-life is about 60–80 h."
https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/medicine-and-dentistry/memantine
"Neurotrope Concludes Data Collection in Confirmatory Phase 2 Clinical Trial of Moderately Severe to Severe Alzheimer's Disease"
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/neurotrope-concludes-data-collection-in-confirmatory-phase-2-clinical-trial-of-moderately-severe-to-severe-alzheimers-disease-300884499.html
$38.5 per share actually. You're forgetting all the options and warrants that when combined brings up the share count to around 26 million.
The good thing is that over $100 million will flow into the company once the warrants are exercised, which is about $3.8 per share in pure cash.
Maybe there is. Maybe there isn't.
The point is that this is a confirmatory trial meant to replicate the results that were already achieved in those non-memantine patients from the last trial. That does not mean there is a 98.8% probability of success.
The question is this:
If you give a larger group of patients not on memantine the same optimal dose as before, will they show an improvement similar to the smaller group from the last trial?
Since people keep getting this wrong, let me repeat it once more:
There is a 98.8% chance that the patients in the last trial that were not on memantine and that were taking the optimal dose showed an improvement over placebo because of the drug. There is a 1.2% chance that this improvement was achieved because of sheer luck. That is what the p value of 0.012 means.
It has nothing to do with the current trial and its probability of success.
It has nothing to do with the past, present and future stock price.
It has nothing to do with ANYTHING except what I mentioned above.
Biogen was different though. They were pretty much considered to be the last amyloid shot on goal for the industry, and when they failed it made everyone wake up from their amyloid sleep and start looking for alternatives that actually work.
I don't think there was ever that much hope for BACE inhibitors. I recently also posted an article here that shows sigma-1 activators aren't beating placebo either.
So that's 3 different theories down the drain now.
It's not that simple.
I assume early July is just when the patients completed the trial. After that you need to collect all the data from all the different trial sites, add it to a database, lock it and then send it off to Neurotrope, which I assume will happen end of July.
Once that happens, they need to organize the raw data, which means not only sorting the data, but also running all kinds of statistical tests in order to get something coherent that can be presented to the public.
So the trial may be completed now and Neurotrope may receive the raw data in a couple of weeks or so, but that doesn't mean they can immediately draw conclusions from it.
Of course, I was referring to the options expiring on July 19th.
According to that website the max pain for August options is at $10, which if you're right should mean we'll start moving up again after July options have expired.
I guess we'll see on July 22nd if you're right lol
"Epilogue on Edonerpic: It Does Not Work in Alzheimer’s":
https://www.alzforum.org/news/research-news/epilogue-edonerpic-it-does-not-work-alzheimers
"Scientists led by Lon Schneider, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, reported that in a year-long Phase 2 trial among people with mild to moderate disease, patients taking the sigma-1 activator fared no better than those on placebo."
Vanguard is a passive investor, not active. That means they'll add or get rid of NTRP shares from their index funds based on how the market in general is performing, not because of any company events.
I suggest taking a look at Renaissance Technologies instead, known for running one of the best-performing funds of all-time.
Dr. Ryan has talked about top-line data in late September, which I assume means there won't be a PR until late July.
Makes sense since the estimated study completion date is July 30th, even if it's not what this board was hoping for.
I'd say $30-$100 is a reasonable estimate for day one after positive results.
3.6 million shares were traded after the last trial.
If we assume the same amount of shares are traded this time too then $360 million worth of buy orders could be enough to push the price over $100.
Impossible to say. All I know is that confirming efficacy will make them the only company in the world that can actually treat Alzheimer's.
On top of that they have a rock-solid IP portfolio that gives them the exclusive right to use PKC activators in neurodegenerative diseases until 2035 or so.
That means at least a decade of no competition whatsoever, not just in Alzheimer's but also for every other indication they get approved for.
People can sell all they want, but personally I'm leaning towards leaving my shares alone until someone acquires the company for a premium and converts my shares into something else.
You think positive results would be worth less than a billion?
Yes. The stock price will change according to how the market feels about the results and not Dr. Alkon.
As for why it crashed last time, I'd say it's because the top-line data was not significant.
We later found out that patients on memantine did not improve at all, which dragged the scores down. We also found out later that patients not taking memantine showed a statistically significant improvement.
This time we have more patients that are not taking memantine, which makes it more likely that the results will look better this time.
Now you may think this trial only has a 20% of succeeding, but I'd say it's probably higher than that considering that the post-hoc analysis from the last trial showed a statistically significant improvement in patients that were not on memantine.
In the end though, nobody really knows for sure until the new results are out, so until then the best we can do is guess.
Correct. Dr. Alkon doesn't decide the stock price, but if trial results are positive then investors will most likely be more willing to buy shares for a higher price.
50 day has nothing to do with p values either.
In fact, you shouldn't use p values at all in the stock market.
The science and the stock market are two different things.
Stock price has nothing to do with p values.
One shows how much people are willing to buy/sell shares for and the other shows how likely it is that a certain result was achieved through pure chance.
Apples and oranges.
Over 108k shares got gobbled up in less than an hour.
Smells like institutional buying to me.
FYI Bryostatin is not a statin. It's a macrolide lactone.
Thanks. A bit disappointing though to have Dr. Alkon included for short, generic statements when there's so much else to say.
Thanks for the link. Always great to see them get more publicity.
Why not 100%?
Good idea. If you believe the results will be bad you could always try shorting it into results. You have to act fast though because last time around it was pretty much impossible to find shares for that.
These can also be found in the ibox, which I highly recommend everyone to check out if they're seeking more information about the company.
The only thing he has done is make a fool of himself once again.
Just take a look at what he has to say about Bryostatin:
"How is it that, in the late stages of Alzheimer's disease, in the absence of Namenda and at low doses, the drug appears to lead to improvements in cognition? Or put another way, how does bryostatin-1 contribute to the regeneration of neurons and synapses without also contributing to the death of neurons and synapses? And, how does it do the former when both protein kinase C and phosphatidylinositol-3 kinase activity have dramatically declined as a result of nitration? The answers may lie in the diluents used in preparing the drug for injection. Povidone (polyvinylpyrrolidone) increases the stability of antioxidants (study one). Polyethylglycol extends the activity of antioxidant enzymes (study two). And polysorbate 80 acts as a direct antioxidant (study three). These compounds were also used in the placebo group in which some individuals also showed improvement.
Certain antioxidants may limit the formation of peroxynitrite, scavenge peroxynitrite, and de-nitrate both protein kinase C and the phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase. Then, protein kinase C activation would not produce any negative effects, only positive ones. How effective the antioxidants used as diluents in the bryostatin-1 Alzheimer’s clinical trial are remains to be seen."
About Anavex 2-73:
"When peroxynitrite is scavenged, it produces water (formula on bottom page 9) and water likely helps de-nitrate critical enzymes, receptors, and transport systems in the brain (water as a de-nitrating agent). Indeed, reversing oxidation and nitration may be the key to the long-term stabilization of Alzheimer’s disease."
Not only is he spouting random nonsense, but the article itself is filled with spelling mistakes and contradictions.
I mean come on, more water in the brain being the key to long-term stabilization of Alzheimer’s disease? Get outta here.
Lol, still writing about antioxidants I see.
At least he's figured out that PKC may have something to do with it.
I'm just glad to see Dr. Alkon start getting the publicity he deserves. God knows how hard it must be to have your life's work ignored by an entire industry because it isn't what everyone else is doing.
New patent application:
http://pdfaiw.uspto.gov/.aiw?PageNum=0&docid=20190192471
August options available now:
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NTRP/options?date=1565913600