Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
If things go as expected there will be fewer shares available and the price will rise more rapidly than if the float was not drying up. You are a moron.
snow, You don't seem to understand the concept at all and for some reason you want to argue that there is still a huge amount of shares for sale.
Your statement:
My point is that the float is drying up there will be no shares on offer making the stock price drop in the future because of jittery sellers.
is nonsense. I did not say there are 0 shares available for sale. How do you arrive at the conclusion "there will be no shares on offer"? That statement demonstrates you have a total and complete lack of understanding regarding the ebb and flow of shares for sale in response to good news and bad news.
Red, I guess this pretty much confirms the rumor of Chinese taking equity in ERHE. I doubt the search warrant stuff would have happened if xom or cvx were the partner. (Unless they got greedy and thought they could take it all.)
snow, you are going to have to elaborate as I don't see how yesterday's price and volume disproves the theory that the float is drying up. Please enlighten me. All you seem to be able to do is ask questions. You never offer any original thinking.
Art, we are shareholders, part owners in the company. We are entitled to a full explanation. I have a feeling an explanation will come out one way or another.
DQ, Here's how I view yesterday's price action-I think a lot of people had limit sell orders in between .70 and .80. MM's took it down to .68 to take out the market orders then the MM's marched it upward to create some buying interest so they could match the limit sell orders with buys.
Why? To make sure they don't get caught buying a bunch of shares between .70 and .80 then have to sell them when the price settle in the .60's. They don't want to buy high and sell low.
Looking ahead, we probably need some news from ERHE next week to prevent nervous investors from selling in the coming days and weeks. The longer we go without a detailed explanation from the company the more time for uncertainty and doubt to grow.
****Must Read: NDOL share price behavior>>
Don't let anybody scare you out of your shares. Check out how PKZ reacted to buyout rumor, confirmation of offer, acceptance and approval.
PKZ's price had it's ups and downs in the first days after the company issued its first PR confirming an offer was on the table.
Notice PKZ didn't instantly jump to the buyout price. It trended steadily higher to the buyout price.
The biggest one day gains came on 2 days. The first big move was when the company confirmed an offer was on the table.
The next big move came when the company accepted the offer.
NDOL has had the first big move so there should be another when the company accepts the offer, (or possibly announces a better offer.)
I've posted the dates for news leading up to the buyout of PKZ. Look at the chart below around the key dates of PR's.
June 27: PKZ confirms buyout rumors. (gap up)
August 22: PKZ announces Sale. (gap up)
Oct 11-17: Lukoil challenge and court reserves decision. (gap down)
Expect some volatility the first few days after the unsoliciited offer announcement.
Hopefully the chart prints below. If not go to http://stockcharts.com and enter pkz.
http://www.prnewswire.co.uk/cgi/news/company?id=113456
Wednesday 19 October 2005
6:00 PetroKazakhstan Securityholders Approve Proposed Acquisition by CNPC International; Court Reserves Decision on Final Order Until October 26, 2005
Tuesday 11 October 2005
13:29 PetroKazakhstan Announces Lukoil Notice of Intention to Oppose Arrangement
Monday 12 September 2005
13:00 PetroKazakhstan Announces Further Details Regarding Sale to CNPC International Ltd.
Monday 22 August 2005
6:30 PetroKazakhstan Announces Sale to CNPC International Ltd. For Approximately US$4.18 Billion
Monday 15 August 2005
20:45 PKZ Confirms Receipt of Acquisition Proposals
Monday 27 June 2005
11:21 PetroKazakhstan Inc. - PKZ Comments on Media Reports
NDOL EOD RUN. 1.24x1.26.
Here comes the test.**
NDOL, ACMG, Same Financier.
Nice open, looking good today.**
NICE!!!
ACMG has same financier as NDOL. Midland Baring Financial Group Inc. Maybe ACMG takes off next.
1.NDOL, 2.AURC, 3. NEXT=ACMG.
Thanks everybody for the info.**
Are their any specifics regarding contracts? Has anybody spoken informally with the company? I like the ethanol and biodiesel play and this looks like a reasonable price to get in. Market cap is only around $10 million.
I'm thinking of buying this. I like the story but I'm always leary of pinkies. What are you expecting in terms of news and company events in the next few weeks? I see mention of a webiste. I know about NDOL and AURC. Anything else?
can you give me some examples so I can look at the charts? Thanks!
snow, "the float is drying up" and "the float is gone" are commonly used to refer to the situation where there are relatively few shares for sale, regardless of who's holding them. People loosely use the term "float" in this intance rather than saying;
the "shares outstanding less shares held by insiders who cannot readily trade shares, so float is considered to be the number of shares available for trading" is drying up.
You da man elsie.**
My explanation would be "the float is drying up".
Very observant, you have just described a symptom of "the float drying up".
geez, sorry. Let me rephrase. A large part of the float has been accumulated by investors. FYI m_a_d, it's common to refer to the situation I have described as "the float drying up" or saying "the float is gone". I bet yer one of them "by the book" people with anal retentive tendencies.
Looks like the float is gone. It only takes a few tens of thousands of shares to move the Bid/Ask. I think the explanation is that so many people/groups have been selling the highs and buying back more shares on the lows that the float has dried up. If you believe that Offor's friends and family have been involved then there is a logical conclusion. Now that the float is gone, the next phase might be to attract buyers either through PR or an open market buy-in. Anything like that will drive the price up quickly because there is no inventory of shares available. This would provide the quickest and largest return for any groups that have been accumulating.
Electick, if you are talking about the book value of assets then I agree with you. However, the market value of assets will provide a resonable value of the company.
The market value of an asset, (reserves), is a function of the future cash flows generated by it. If momentum comes into the sector then it is reflected in the market price of the asset, (like now with the price of oil), and it's expected future value. As reserves go from unproved to proved the market price of reserves will also rise, so an asset pricing model based on market values works well here.
The shortcoming of the asset valuation model is that it does not explicitly value any future side effects, like partnering with SNP in other African ventures. However, if those types of issues arise then you can add them within your asset pricing model and include it in your valuation.
I agree with you that investors will determine how high the buy-in price will go via the price they are willing to tender their shares. However, many investors will use an asset valuation model like NPV, NAV, to determine the price at which they will tender shares.
Right now the market value of ERHE reserves are based on unproved oil. The longer we hold out, the more wells drilled, more reserves become proven, and the market value goes up. So SNP, or whoever, will pay a lower price now because there's more risk than if they wait for proven. Of course, SNP also knows the Block 1 results and that may give them enough confidence to buy now. My hunch is that the value of unproved oil in the JDZ is relatively high because I get the feeling there is a high level of confidence that the billions of bbls of potential will be realized.
I've been keeping an eye it as well.**
Any thoughts on why the price is rising so easily today?
Thanks Angry. Question: Will ERHE share price hit 5 dolluh in year of dog?
why u so angry?**
strass, I'd like to know how they can the price to run on such low volume. Unless the MM's see a big buy order on level III and are running the price up.
greeny, please don't bother the board with posts on share price movement, (unless your post also includes a refernce to oilphant, meridian, umbra, rancho, mongo or brokers.) wink-wink!
If you don't pay me the $55 million you don't owe me then that makes even more money that I am not going to receive from people who don't owe me any money. LOL.
I thought meridian or somebody said that ERHE requested to withdraw rights to blocks 5 and 6 but then withdrew the request to withdraw.
At any rate, I now realize the $55 million is from sig bonus free money.
ah, yes, forgot about that bellyache.**
I'd translate it like this and it looks to me like ERHC has another $10 million coming from another deal ($45 million from blocks 2,3,4 and now maybe another $10 million from block 5 and 6?). (Or another $55 million from somewhere?)
5/2/06«I will be in private consultation with President Kadaf», declared Fradique Menezes. «When I return to Abuja I am going to attend a meeting on cocoa and at the same time take advantage of the situation to speak with President Obajanjo about the situation of the $15 million debt owed to us from the oil money. (As I recall Nigeria promised a payment to STP for part of an OPL block, 246 maybe?)
«We asked that the debt be paid with the second round. ERHC is not going to pay us any part of their $55 million so that makes even more money that we are not going to receive. When you combine that with what Nigeria owes we are not going to receive hardly anything from the second round», Fradique Menezes said.
Here's the original.
5/2/06«I will be in a visit of private character with the President Kadaf», declared Fradique Menezes. «When it return to Abuja I am going to watch to meeting of cocoa and at the same time take advantage of for speak with the President Obajanjo about the situation of the debt that we have», advanced still, explaining that is a matter of a debt of money that Saint Tomé received of advancement of oil, in the value of 15 millions of dollars, that the country did not pay and should have liquidated.
«We ask for pass that debt for second auction. To ERHC is not going to pay any thing as 55 millions of dollars and now is going to diminish still more that that we are going to receive. And itself the Nigeria apply that that combine, we are not going to receive hardly anything of that second contest», Fradique Menezes said.
DQ, sounds like you're afraid you might get left behind on the portion of your shares that you trade.
But you also have to consider the time value of money. How many years to develop the asset and the pattern of cash flows. If they tried to sell that asset they would get something closer to NPV per share unless they can crank all that oil out today, or over the course of a year.
Don't they need to drill on the block 2 side to determine the equity percentages? It would be a nice surprise to find the DWD in block 2 soon. (Or any drillship for that matter.)
I think it's clear that everybody is lowballing estimates and this area holds one the largest hydrocarbon reserves ever discovered.
Those dang chinese oil thieves. They always make a mess too, what with those billions of dollars they leave scattered around the crime scene. Too bad everybody doesn't have some oil the chinese could steal. It's enough to make you wonder who's paying the militants.
The large investment is justified from a real-option standpoint. It looks like a negative NPV project until you consider the option on future opportunities. It looks like some of the recent developments in Nigeria confirm this view and I expect more value to emerge following Hu's recent visit.