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This action is most closely resembled by the week 3/29-4/7 2005. It was followed by a 600 point drop the following week. That was BEFORE an ominous HUGE head and shoulders pattern was staring everyone in the face as it is now. A drop to 9700 on the weekly is a minor blip...not a crash. A drop to 9700 would simply be a C wave completion, and would be my MINIMUM target here.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$INDU,uu[m,a]waclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUp14,3,3!La12,26....
I expect a retest of the high from yesterday at least before heading down.
(Although I have 1/2 a short position already)
I was out all day and forced to cover at 10 am. My read was that we go straight down, or (alternately) as chuck said, have another c into mid 10400's. So, not being able to watch, I covered before I left. I can't post my charts as I see them, they are a realtime futures service. I do expect a continuation higher into tomorrow, but that will be a shorting opportunity in my opinion. This is an options induced rally that will retrace as fast as it climbs.
ABC finished 10/18 according to my read. We are at 3 of 3 down on the daily in my opinion. Straight down here.
short-term chart says buy right here....don't do it.
weekly still has 2-3 weeks until bottom.
Hold onto yer hats folks...the plunge through last week's low about to commence....
Breakaway gap down. Target 9700.
Could not have a more favorable set-up for a crash. Everyone thinks the bottom is in...option expiry Friday. If we break down, dealers will have to sell stocks to hedge their derivatives exposure. Could get ugly quick.
Stopped out for small gain. Looks like a gap up tomorrow. Target 10413 for short.
Short DJZ05 10354. I think the "rally" is over. Fib retrace of .382 at 10354.
Back to the pattern of "Ramp the open...dump for the rest of the day"
I have 5 of 1 of 5...i think...after jd on the rocks...who knows??!!!
That's my count for the Dow and S&P. Rally for a week into expiry, then down. Although I have it as a five as well, I think you might see a waterfall that extends much lower than the 5 projection.
I'm out...10290.
Not holding over the weekend.
Yup...min target 10354 DJZ05
Long DJZ05...10225
Many things in nature conform to Fibonacci numbers. The stock market is no exception, many moves are in proportion to Fibonacci numbers.
http://goldennumber.net/stocks.htm
Yes...that would make a lot of sense. That is why I covered most of my short today. When I see max-pain for S&P at 1225, you can be damned sure that there will be an attempt to eliminate some of that gap by Friday. I watched as 1.35 million S&P contracts traded today. Last time I saw that the market gapped 50 and ran up 100 before you could blink. I will not go long here, I'll wait to short around next Friday.
And there is a correlation...just not an exact one. Prices tend to gravitate toward max-pain. I've made some nice $$$ playing option expiry with max-pain.
For once, I agree with you. We "should" have gone lower, but institutions, PPT, whoever, were buying S&P's by the millions. 1.3 mil Dec S&P's traded. Whenever that happens, the bottom (short-term) is in.
So if we experience a similar crash scenario of a 36%decline...should see around Dow 7000. Interesting.
Great chart!!!!That gives a little perspective!
Actually...after a reread of the Dow Daily, it looks as if this move to support at 10100 (DJZ05) will be wave 5 of 1 of larger 3. Looking for longs there for a corrective move into options expiry.
Wave 3 of 1 of larger 3 just beginning...target 10100 for today!
Just don't see any way to rescue this today...straight to DOW 9700.
Don't think they can prop it this time. Every rally gets smothered.
I was right witcha Deva...hope ya made some $$$$.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=7422129
They're taking her down.
Cash...both you and Airedale impress me with your work. I plan on incorporating it as well. It just seemed that there were as many agreements as disagreements about location in the cycles. Also, it seemed like the cycle theory just extrapolated the current trend to form projections, which didn't make sense to me. I'll let you know what I think after I take a look in depth at his work.
A consolidation pattern which should have produced buyers just failed and reversed. There is no buy support here...RESHORT.
if this doesn't rally soon, i'm back to the dark-side
Elliott wave. 3/6 high 11000 to low 4/17 10000=1000 point leg down (A if corrective 1 if impulsive). Correction to 10700. (B if corrective 2 of impulsive). 10700 to 9700 est. (C if corrective, part of 3 if impulsive). Weekly stochs still room to fall. Vix weekly poised for moonshot. Equity put/call neutral. I do not use fundamentals in determining trades...just use them to try to piece together where we are in "the big picture".
I am currently long (very small position) as I expect a small rally into options expiry to about 1220 S&P. After that it's Tankville (according to my speculation... :) ).
Out of short...looking for 10440
Hi Aire
By "assimilating info from as many sources as possible" I meant that I combine many different aspects of TA when looking at points of entry/exit for a trade. I think it's great that you are successful using Hurst, and I plan on studying it as well. I'm always looking to learn something new and it seems that many use it successfully. I don't place a trade unless the combination of TA indicators I use show me that I have entered a "low-risk" position. I also get out when the charts tell me I'm wrong. Right now my indicators say Dow 9700 after a week of chop. Then a significant bounce. Then Dow 8400 into January. I wouldn't read this thread if I didn't respect the input of the traders, you in particular. Happy trading.
There is no certainty in trading. If you think there is, you are in the wrong business. It's about probability and assimilating information from as many sources as possible to get the best all-around picture of what is happening at the moment you place a trade. It's not about blindly following one trading method to the exclusion of everything else because you decided that "this golden egg" made the most sense to you. Successful trading is judged by percentage returns over time, period. Like Bill Parcells said..."We are what our record says we are". I listen to the cycle traders talk about where we are in a cycle and it seems much MORE subjective and speculative than how I operate. Just my opinion.
Crash coming in...crash going out!
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20051007-fri.html#anchor0
Either wave 3 has begun...bearish scenario
or
correction has one more move to 10440 or so...
either way limited upside...Wave 3 to commence soon.
rally here or she's toast.
I could definately see a panic develop into the close...if 10309 breaks (DJZ05), it's a straight shot to yesterday's lows. If we begin to accellerate you might get that "get me the hell out of this stock" mentality into the close.
No rise in fear...even with a significant sell-off and technical breakdowns.
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/market_tools/cboe_eqpcr.aspx
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$VXN,uu[m,a]waclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUp14,3,3!La12,26,....
Welcome to the dark side!
This rally has distribution written all over it. There will be sellers at the close not wanting to hold over the long weekend. I say the ABC correction is complete, and wave 3 of 3 has begun.
Looks like a gimme for $3-4. Might play that myself...thanks
Added to short...this looks pathetic
Since this is a wave 3, I don't think the bounce here is anything but a dead cat...I'd be surprised if the Dow (DJZ05)manages to get back up to 10470 before the slide resumes. Next down is 3 of 3...the most powerful impulsive move. Don't get married to longs here.
I just covered some of my short...full 5 wave down complete and hourly stochs at zero...
and Jeff Immelt was wheeled out to save the market..."Everything's just dandy!" he was reported saying.
Should get a corrective ABC to 10440-10475.