Yes...that would make a lot of sense. That is why I covered most of my short today. When I see max-pain for S&P at 1225, you can be damned sure that there will be an attempt to eliminate some of that gap by Friday. I watched as 1.35 million S&P contracts traded today. Last time I saw that the market gapped 50 and ran up 100 before you could blink. I will not go long here, I'll wait to short around next Friday.
And there is a correlation...just not an exact one. Prices tend to gravitate toward max-pain. I've made some nice $$$ playing option expiry with max-pain.
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