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Hi Yank, thanks for the ARR tip. I sold all my mreits a while ago. I decided I didn’t like the risks.
I had not thought through the 90 day, rather than 60 day, comment period and the complexity of the rule. 90 days gets us to late August. Then a period to reflect on comments and perhaps make revisions... so looks like congress gets to review.
With a Dem sweep in November looming, this looks like a new layer of risk, right? Unpick the whole deal - perhaps with a new FHFA redoing the rule et al.
Not sure, we shall see tomorrow
People may hope for a walk down on the requirements
I see common pressured. Pref gets its face value regardless, whereas common just lost a lot of profit...
Who knows?
I am glad I am not in these securities depending on the ideological whims of creatures like Calabria, Mnuchin and Trump - I don’t need that stress... normal stocks I can price and then wait out market dislocations. No recovering from some things these creatures can do...
Yeah, it is very strange. This idea that you can micromanage risk in the face of such manifold variables -- you end up focussing on the last crisis situation rather than on the range of possible situations the future presents...
I wonder who put the rule together alongside Calabria, presumably these other tin-hat wearers he hired from the think-tanks
We shall see if the market for FnF shits the bed tomorrow, I think it may... can they make money?
Howard suggests that Calabria destroyed viability...
One hopes that buried somewhere is a backdoor way to satisfy these "bank-like requirements" -- otherwise Calabria is the Fifth Column many of us have been worried he might be...
Gonna see SP's drop tomorrow perhaps
I would shoot for breaking $2 first LOL, then maybe $3... and take your profits if you get there - there will be bumps in the road
Yeah, I realize events may happen here -- but they may also not (Trump has a heart attack, what would Pence do on FnF? I have no idea...)
Prefer the reversion to normality of potential Blue chippers like BHC, PK, ET and more.
BUT if there is a panic in FnF I would pick some back up cheap -- and there is ALWAYS something here (manufactured or genuine)
Yeah, I left my FnF pref to buy into BHC, PK and ET leaps... but I am not chasing this. Always a bad move to buy the FnF rips, better to sell those and buy the dips
There will be a bump in the FnF road between now and November, I will think about it again then
PK and BHC are doubles or triples with so much less risk, so I switched out
What do you think common is worth under such a cram down?
Prefs go crazy - 12% up
People like the adviser news - conversion coming
Navy, everything is up today -- even the most lame, sick dogs on my watch lists are all green... nothing red
So, yes, it should be up (and at least 3-4%) or just euthanize it now LOL
Nothing changed - except the economy collapsing lol
Calabria's "two weeks" gets longer and longer... thankfully Calabria will be fired before he gets to Sweeneyesque dimensions -- seven years to get to trial? LMFAO
Lumpina, I am not old enough for Bill Russell lol... I came to USA, the NYC area, just in time for the great Knicks-Bulls battles - I leabred the hard way to never, ever, expect Jordan to fail...
You should watch The Last Dance, it is pretty fascinating look at a bunch of figures and not just Jordan. For me, each of the hour long episodes just whipped by -- could not believe it was the end already. Highly recommended.
I love today's NBA, I like Russell Westbrook, I enjoy watching crazy James Harden, and the experiment of them all together in "micro-ball" -- was interested to see if it failed...
Anyway, I missed this playoffs... For me, baseball is too dead and the people I do not care for. My real love is the English Premier League and European soccer which are now all over cable thankfully.
Good talking to you!
I agree about the change -- The Last Dance reminded what the Pistons v Bulls, and Knicks v Bulls, and Pacers v Bulls were like... Basically, beat on MJ, but MJ STILL scores
It is remarkable how little anyone talks about the change in officiating -- basically it has devalued big men (except those that can shoot) and boosted shooting from anyone
Steph Curry could not have survived the earlier eras and I agree with Shaq that today MJ would have a HUGE average
No basketball is worse, was going to be a great playoffs -- so many interesting teams
True, but you have said you do not own common.
But then I also don’t know if you tell the truth
So point noted
Maybe interacting with Carlos can lead to contagion?
Yank, interesting. You say common is worth $30, but it trades at $1-$2 and, correct me if I am wrong, you own NONE ZIP ZILCH of this 15-bagger... does hurt the credibility a tad ;)
IF one ever gets to a trial.. sadly we see how long that takes...
Guido, it is clear your reading comprehension is not on today - my post says 30 MILLION a year in legal fees, rather than 30 Billion
Various sources have quoted 30 million as FHFA's legal fees in the cases for the private attorney...
Two points:
First, on Sweeney is "eager to share her thought" -- I spat my coffee. How long in her court with NO trial? Is it SEVEN YEARS? Yeah, quite the eager beaver LOL
Second, the whole world thinks FnF were bankrupt and congress passed an act based on that assumption. Terms in BK situations are pretty harsh, understandably, so you can forget any relief which will be a huge uphill struggle
GL, you will need it
Beginning to think tying up capital here is a mistake - nothing doing till Nov so I may sell again and put the money to work elsewhere till then
If Trump administration goes ahead, then the dilution will be massive till reverse split - I sold my common at $3 and price action since then confirms market view... common is going down more than a truck stop sex worker
Well, Washington Federal is court of claims and I don’t think Sweeney can stop the exercise of the warrants - as I said - though she might be able to give monetary damages after a trial. But there will never be one.
Have you got $30 million a year to fund an action with decent enough lawyers to best Treasury’s and plan on 3-4 years with all appeals
As long as it is not trauma unit - I am half in cash so bring the bargains!!!
Hard to see how they are not - no court will stop exercise since no case attacks them; plus huge deficit Needs paying down and Mnuchin gets accused of hedge fund cronyism if forgiven... have to be exercised
Warrants exercised...
At the least, markets may toggle between a) this is a V recovery so no worries and b) this is a Great Depression
I agree indexes being where they are cannot last. I am only in the already beaten down names and cash
I think a big down move is coming but who knows when, so I take bargains when I see them but the markets scare me a lot right now
These dumbasses really cannot get out of their own way -- so all the political PR crap about no dividends my kill this for REITS... sigh
It is all good, since I will sell today anyway... going to break $6 for NRZ it appears
Market just turned on a dime, all my positions red at the open (some pretty badly so) now everything is green -- except my FnF pref lol
Trading is the way to go with this, hope you are taking your profits in cash Stinkie?
FFF, you are braver than me, but I think you might be right. Yesterday I bought a bunch of ET LEAPS and I am shocked they have already gone green lol
Just bought some NRZ...
No punitive conditions? Thanks
Thanks for the heads-up!
FFF, the link is broken -- what is the bottom-line? They are bailing servicers?
The mreits just all went green this morning, I had been tracking ARR and CIM, so maybe that is why...
Was a down day across broad sectors of the market -- MREITS and FnF pref included
Not yet a buying opp... I like ARR, close to my buy point
The administration is focused on the election. Poll numbers are bad, and getting worse, across mid-west battle states. Administration is doing nothing to make that worse or have the chance of it... hence after the election looks like the window.
Yeah, it traded 10 volume and I thought about buying but the discount is not large and having problems selling $100k if I need to is not worth the headache since I am not sure I won't jump out of this again.
I am mostly in the FNMAT and some FMCKM cos they are more liquid
Calabria better post a capital rule in May or I will sell out, and then the prevaricating Mr. Two Weeks will publish it in June when I am gone... and no doubt SCOTUS its us with favorable ruling too just after I sell...
But I cannot complain, I have had a lot of luck recently
Of course... BTW someone was selling the $100K prefs today. Either profit taking or concerned, who knows...
Conversion does not dictate share price, but one thing that does is SHARE COUNT. If the share count increases, all else being equal, then the share price goes DOWN.
Dilution is an increase in share count so, all else being equal, dilution means the share price goes down.
But you know this. We only differ over whether we think Treasury and Calabria will do a pref conversion when they do their SPSA amendments...
FFF, I agree about the possibilities for both and that they likely both do very well. Too many variables to know, so I go with what *I* take to be the comparatively safer option of the preferred. Reasonable people can differ. Best, potty
I do have such issues... IF the reform happens, THEN I believe it will only happen alongside a conversion of junior ( and perhaps some senior) pref to common a la Citigroup
Totally delusional since that brings massive dilution to common - and how could that be?
... well...