Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
hweb2.....If I wanted to short 100,000 shares of VTSI today I could do it, no problem at all. I KNOW that on March 30th the short interest at days end was likely between 3 and 4million. Also the big boys that shorted the bulk of those didn’t cover at $6, they are likely still covering. Worse case for them was to use the 3mil shares they had already agreed to buy to cover. But they were lucky and the stock slid past 6 and 5.5 and 5 and I would guess most were covered below 5.5. So yes, today they are long 3 mil shares but they already made $3 or $4 or $5 on each share they had shorted.
All just my opinion and pure guess. But the above happens all the time.
All the shares shorted on March 30th will not show up in that report cuz the trades didn’t settle until April 2nd. And that too was not an accident!
LOL. You framed it correctly. At the drop of a hat you are correct! However with even a wee bit of brains and a wee bit of effort anything you can do or buy for $24mil you can do or buy for $7mil.
The other interesting point to me is this......is there really anything you can do with $24million that you cannot do with $7million?
Think about the extraordinary high price VirTra paid to raise a net $16.x million dollars.
They paid over $1mil in fees/expenses.
They diluted shareholders.
They gave up some level of contriol.
The Ferris family stake went from 9.x% to 6.x%. Amazing.
But they did what most other ill-informed and insecure companies do. They suck up to firms like Roth and believe the rubbish spewed from 3rd tier advisors.
There are so many better options.....borrow from your local bank, borrow from one or two individuals, or how about getting your stock price up to a crazy multiple like Axon and then do it.
Banks right now are eager to lend. They are literally begging and competing for borrowers. I close next week on a multi million dollar (ok, only $2mil) and TOTAL fees and expenses are $684. My interest rate is locked at 3.75% for 5 years. I can pay back anytime I want and use the money as I wish!
Why isn’t VirTra more savvy?.......or is it sabby
Falling.....in love. Bought more today. Sub 14 is stupid low!
Never saw the $1.x mil legal settlement coming. Sold my trading shares and will hold my core for another 3 months.
I wonder why they issued the PR today and not 2 days ago?
Maybe related to settlement time?
Doesn’t much matter I guess.
Well said! Agree whole heartedly.
And another thing, why do you think the buyers agreed to buy at $6 which was a huge premium?
Because they knew they could profit BIG by doing what they did last Tuesday.
This is the sort of stuff the SEC should care about but the issue in a case like this is “who got hurt?” And the answer to that is nobody. Think about it, many here sold in the 7 - 10 range. No one bought that’s for sure. And the company benefited by raising $18mil. Shareholders benefited cuz it was at $6 not $4.5. Everyone won so it’s sorta the perfect “crime”.
My guess is those 3mil shares are in reasonably strong hands.
I would also guess most all the shorts have covered simply by buying other shares. Easy to do given the volume now.
So I would expect a good news big news PR pretty soon explaining the need for an extra $18mil. I would also think the stock could rocket up fast when Q1 is announced.
I just bought even more at $5. Enterprise value at that price is exactly $30million. Maybe not stupid low but very low.
Crystal clear. ARZ already told you in his post today.
The main purpose of last Tuesday’s apparent manipulation was to short a lot of shares.
This took deep pockets and a lot of planning.
Most importantly it could only be done safely (zero risk) if the entity shorting knew they would be able to cover. They likely knew cuz they were buying 3mil shares at $6 in a few days.
In other words whoever did what they did last Tuesday knew beforehand about the direct offering at $6.
One good thing we know for sure today that we didn’t know yesterday. The cap raise was in the works for weeks or months. And last Tuesday’s spike was a result of Roth and others knowing it was coming. It WAS NOT what Gomes said it was llast week, that being Ferris seeing the spike last Tuesday morning and deciding to take advantage by selling 3mil shares.
To me this now confirms they landed some big order or contract or have eyes on acquisition.
He appears to be a wealthier version of manny-da-laundry guy.
ARZ is right though, we now know what last Tuesday was about and who shorted million(s) of shares. Even if he covered with the 1mil shares at $6 he made a pile of money.
exactly right! And an added bonus...maybe Lana Rhoades comes to the shareholder meeting!
Hal Mintz of Sabby ......Me thinks we are in for a hell of a lot of fun and a roller coaster ride of epic proportions. I wonder if Ferris knew 10% of his company would be in this guys hands?
At least we know the cap raise closed! Never heard of them. Will have to do a little research.
So far they seem pretty silly, at least so far they have only lost $850,000.
Longer and stronger today than a week ago. Hold for a couple years and reap the rewards. Last years crazy named storm season and massive losses will result in higher rates moving forward. So that together with normal weather and profits will be big. Oh, and if interest rates rise, any insurance company is a great stock to own.
This is my favorite stock for the next 2 years.
Quietly accumulate.....and tell no one.
Sssshhhhh
I bought alot more shares the past few days.
It is hard to be patient with RFP. I never understand why a stock like this with the numbers behind it simply doesn't automatically trade at fair value or reasonable value.
Analysts have caught up with their Q1 estimates but are still way too low for the rest of the year. Lumber futures out into 2022 remain strong and are trending higher. Pulp increase hit a few days ago and should make for a crazy good Q2 and Q3.
EPS will push $5 this year very easily.
And what if $250mil of tariff money is given back to RFP?
And what if they promote green Toundra Greenhouse a bit?
What if they institute a regular dividend or massive special div?
What if they can drive the share count down to 50 or 60mil shares?
There are so many positives now that even $20 would be a joke of a low price.
By the way, it is going up for the right reason. It is fundamentally undervalued below $10.
Revenue is trending up, EPS is trending up. Also for the right reasons, 5G equipment and CT bulbs and simply the booming construction going on in all sectors.
Then add in the rock solid fortress like balance sheet with a ton of cash and a decent 4% dividend.
$6 was a joke, $8 is a joke, it is easily worth $12 today. But if it spikes, I sell.....then buy back.....I hope.
KaBOOM....going way UP!
Someone call Charlie S at Gateway and ask him to tell you the market cap of VirTra at a $5.25 share price.
Furthermore, today is another example of VirTra failing to do the free easy important simple things correctly. Ferris does not understand what is important to investors and shareholders. Late last night they should have issued a PR saying the offering was completed/closed. It is not so obvious it really happened when the offering price is so far above share price.
He also needs to explain the reason for the raise whatever it is. Even if it was simply VirTra taking advantage of the market opportunity that is fine. But ya gotta be honest and inform people. Boilerplate language in an 8k covers his rearend but it is bush league. On par with Roth.
They have a bunch of pissed off new VTSI shareholders today wondering why they paid $6 yesterday for something worth $5.20 today. Yesterday’s Versus downgrade was much more legit though also stupid.
I guess since the last PR said it would likely close yesterday then unless we hear otherwise that is what happened. And if it didn’t happen that would be material and they would have had to tell us before the markets opened today.
Where is the PR saying the direct offering has closed?
5.50 is a $35mil EV which is only a little more than 1x 2021 revenue.
Seems way too low to me vs competitors and other small companies.
I doubt if today’s $6 buyers would agree that 5.50 is about right.
But that’s what makes this fun, a variety of opinions.
Twister, Any idea why it is trading at 5.3 and not 8 - 10?
Has anyone here chatted with either Charlie S or Matt G at Gateway IR since the Q4 report?
Enterprise value only $32mil after today! Strong buy.
(10.75mil share x 5.3) - 24mil cash
Back to being a joke!
At the 31min point of last weeks Gomez chat he talks about VirTras 18mil cap raise. I think he is 100% wrong about it, at least I hope so. He says it was simply VirTra taking advantage of last Tuesday’s higher price and massive volume. There is a link beneath VTSI on stocktwits.
I think the cap raise was in the works for a month+.
I think your thinking is correct.
The argument that VirTra and IR will make is that if these investors tried to buy the same percentage of the company in the open market it would be difficult and they might end up paying more than $6.
My counter to that is BS because I believe these 3mil shares are going into many accounts and none will be a 5% owner. Any one of them could have bought all the shares they wanted well below $6.
I believe, but don’t know for sure. that Roth knows why VirTra is doing the raise.
I also guess they shared that with the buyers.
And I bet there are confidentiality agreements in place everywhere
But it seems obvious that Roth or related parties traded on that info on Tuesday.
I don’t think VirTra or the CEO did anything wrong.
But Tuesdays trading is proof that someone(s) somewhere fid trade on info that was and is not available to you and I.
No one gets in at the bottom and out at the top. I should have sold more the other day and bought less earlier today, thats just the way it goes.
I do feel pretty good again about the company and stock though. I like how it was driven to 14 premarket. I like the big volume. I like the new eyes on it. At this point I even like the $18mil capital raise since it comes ABOVE current valuation and foretells something big and significant coming.
Even from a pure valuation perspective I like it. PS is sub market and sub competition. PE is ok. EV/ebitda is a little goofy but ok.
I truly hope they tell us more via PR once they close on the sale of shares on Monday. The stock could be at $15 or more in the blink of an eye.....hopefully it stays up there long enough to take advantage.
Those sorts of numbers beg some obvious questions. With the large dollar price tag of recoil kits, clearly VirTra manufactures and sells very very few in a typical year. So then, what on earth are they doing in their manufacturing ("machine shop") area? And why would they need a second shift of maybe several CNC operators per their January postings?
I guess it all does point toward some sort of big recoil kit or other opportunity that requires VirTra to "build stuff."
If 100% of their 2020 revenue of almost $20million came from $5000 recoil kits that would only be 4000 recoil kits. I gotta stop trying to think about stuff and just trade the stock.
I did just buy a bunch more.
Lord Have Mercy!
Shows how dangerous estimates and guesses are from the uninformed (me).
Awesome post as always Ardly.
I wonder how much a “smart” recoil kit goes for? By smart, I mean one that you can program for number of rounds, periodic unexpected jams, maybe misfire, perhaps other mechanical stuff. Gotta be $500 or more.
Just for fun......120,000 x $500 = $60,000,000.......hhhhhmmmmmm
Are recoil kits part of big Microsoft contract?
If there is some big legit real opportunity any bank would be happy to loan them the money at 5 or 6%. Frrris just doesn’t like debt.