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AAG, Crucible seems to like it :
http://investorvillage.com/groups.asp?mb=16385&mn=1158&pt=msg&mid=10517615
Verbonac updates MMT target to 90c. Not much, but at least something. He was calling for 75c while we were at 60some, so now his call to 90c looks much better with MMT below 60c. Of course 90c looks still really conservative, MMT should be trading north of 1 buck already...
INTERNATIONAL OIL & GAS COMMENT
Drilling News Pummel Stocks
Warren Verbonac 403-205-2224 wverbonac@union-securities.com 18-May-11
Market Sentiment
The dominant theme affecting international junior oil and gas stocks for much of this year has been negative, with the market over-reacting to drilling results – not only dry holes, but also when successful holes are not up to expectation. This short term thinking flies in the face of the realities of exploration – dry holes are part of the process of exploration and bringing discoveries onstream, but bad news in a bad market has been causing an over-reaction.
Having just completed the calculation of asset values on the recently released 2010 reserve reports and financial statements (shown below), the discount to asset values is extraordinary, and indicative of a bottoming of the market. Investors should take a hard look at these discounts; this is an excellent entry point for many of our names. To make the comparisons as fair as possible among a variety of political jurisdictions, the following table uses after tax numbers to reflect the maximum government share of production and revenues and may be overly punitive in specific cases.
All of our stocks who are producing oil receive Brent pricing, which is on trend to setting a record this year. Those companies who produce gas received prices ranging from $9.00 - $11.00/mcf in Q1/11.
Ithaca, Mart, Sterling and Winstar are trading at very attractive valuations relative to asset value. Ithaca, Mart and Winstar are also attractive on a multiple of this year’s cash flow.
Company Comments
Cygam Energy – CYG-TSXV, $0.43
Stock Rating: Buy Target Price $1.00
Sud Ramada
Cygam, as of this month, has a new management team in place that is in the early stages of ramping up the activities of the Company. Gary Hyde is the new Chief Executive Officer, Brad Goldie is the new President, and Alistair Robertson is now the Chief Financial Officer. All three have extensive experience in the international oil and gas arena, and are developing a strategy to increase the growth profile of the Company.
The Company may issue a revised Annual Information Form, and thus the asset value shown in the foregoing table may be revised.
We continue to recommend purchase of the stock, based on the potential of the Tunisian and Italian assets, and maintain our target price of $1.00.
Ithaca Energy – IAE-TSXV, $2.03
Stock Rating: Strong Buy Target Price $4.00
Ithaca announced a dry hole today on the Jacky field (47.5% interest), a location that was drilled to maximize the recovery of the field. The hole encountered oil, but was too thin to be good producer (water incursion may have occurred early); it may instead be used as a water injector and thus serve the same purpose. Production may be effected downward by a few hundred barrels a day; however, by year-end, production is estimated to double to 10,000 bd, from the Cook and Athena fields (to be followed by Carna, Stella, and Harrier), a doubling from the current estimate of approximately 5,000 bd.
The stock was down over 10% on the news of the Jacky location; a large drop considering Jacky’s 2P reserves of 1.2 million barrels represents 2% of the Company’s 51.8 million barrels (including the Cook acquisition in 2011). We expect to see the stock price advance as we approach the onstream date of Athena later this year. Drilling of the horizontal leg is currently underway at Athena – results of which could possibly be the next news event.
Our Strong Buy recommendation is based on the growth in production and cash flow that is underway. The stock is trading at 3.1 times this year’s cash flow of $0.65 and at a 40% discount from asset value. In 2012, cash flow could be close to $1.00. We maintain our target of $4.00
Mart Resources Inc. – MMT-TSXV, $0.58
Stock Rating: Speculative Buy Target Price $0.90
Yesterday, on the basis of the 2010 operating and financial results, and the potential of the next drilling location, we raised our target to $0.90, reflecting the growth potential of a high productivity oil field in Nigeria. We maintain our Speculative Buy rating and target of $0.90. Warren Verbonac 403-205-2224 | wverbonac@union-securities.com EQUITY RESEARCH REPORT
Sterling Resources – SLG-TSXV, $1.88
Stock Rating: Strong Buy Target Price $6.00
Sterling’s stock has been more than cut in half from its (very) recent high of $4.94, the result of an unfortunate coincidence of bad news in a bad market. Romanian government intransigence and two dry holes at Cladhan have taken the stock to 80% of our $2.50 proven and probable asset value – largely based on just the Breagh field.
A more appropriate number would include the possible reserves, since the field is still in the development stage, and since the Company’s tax pools will shelter it from years of taxation, the 3P pre-tax calculation shown below is relevant, and conservative considering there are no reserves booked for the Cladhan field, which is an economic discovery and will be onstream in 2014.
Forecast Pricing Before Tax After Tax P.V. 10% mmboe mm /boe Reserves Proved 23.7 $377.7 $15.94 Probable 9.1 $124.9 $13.73 Possible 8.2 $120.9 $14.74 Total 41.0 $623.5 $15.21 Working Capital $138.4 Debt $0.0 Net Asset Value $761.9 Shares Outstanding, Basic 152.7 Asset Value per Share, Basic $4.99
Sterling is our top pick for long term investors seeking a diversified exploration and development opportunity. Cladhan, despite some reduction in its ultimate upside, will likely rival Breagh in valuation once reserves are booked. We maintain our Strong Buy and target of $6.00.
TransGlobe Energy – TGL-TSX, $12.43
Stock Rating: Buy Target Price $16.00
TransGlobe has held up relatively well amongst the other companies in our group, nonetheless it is off almost 40% from its high of $20.35. The Company recently achieved record production of almost 12,000 bd, despite Yemeni production of 2,300 bd being shut in. New production guidance will be issued shortly, and we expect the Company could be up to close to 20,000 bd by year-end, a two-thirds increase which is significant coming off of TransGlobe’s high current production volume.
We maintain our Buy rating and target of $16.00. Warren Verbonac 403-205-2224 | wverbonac@union-securities.com EQUITY RESEARCH REPORT
Winstar Resources – WIX-TSX, $3.70
Stock Rating: Strong Buy Target Price $7.50
Winstar’s stock has suffered from disappointment in what was a successful deep Silurian well in Tunisia. The well initially came onstream at approximately 300 bd; a gas plant is on its way to the well which will allow a higher pressured gas liquids zone to be brought onstream. Expectations are for the well to be able to produce about 1,000 boed. Recent gas prices have been close to $11/mcf, among the best in the world.
Winstar could exit 2011 with at least a 50% increase in production, and possibly a doubling, from the 1,737 reported in Q1/11.
With the stock trading at 2.6 times this year’s cash flow estimate of $1.65, and at half of its 2010 year-end asset value of $7.48 per share, the stock is one of the more compelling value and growth situations in the market.
Verbonac updates MMT target to 90c. Not much, but at least something. He was calling for 75c while we were at 60some, so now his call to 90c looks much better with MMT below 60c. Of course 90c looks still really conservative, MMT should be trading north of 1 buck already...
INTERNATIONAL OIL & GAS COMMENT
Drilling News Pummel Stocks
Warren Verbonac 403-205-2224 wverbonac@union-securities.com 18-May-11
Market Sentiment
The dominant theme affecting international junior oil and gas stocks for much of this year has been negative, with the market over-reacting to drilling results – not only dry holes, but also when successful holes are not up to expectation. This short term thinking flies in the face of the realities of exploration – dry holes are part of the process of exploration and bringing discoveries onstream, but bad news in a bad market has been causing an over-reaction.
Having just completed the calculation of asset values on the recently released 2010 reserve reports and financial statements (shown below), the discount to asset values is extraordinary, and indicative of a bottoming of the market. Investors should take a hard look at these discounts; this is an excellent entry point for many of our names. To make the comparisons as fair as possible among a variety of political jurisdictions, the following table uses after tax numbers to reflect the maximum government share of production and revenues and may be overly punitive in specific cases.
All of our stocks who are producing oil receive Brent pricing, which is on trend to setting a record this year. Those companies who produce gas received prices ranging from $9.00 - $11.00/mcf in Q1/11.
Ithaca, Mart, Sterling and Winstar are trading at very attractive valuations relative to asset value. Ithaca, Mart and Winstar are also attractive on a multiple of this year’s cash flow.
Company Comments
Cygam Energy – CYG-TSXV, $0.43
Stock Rating: Buy Target Price $1.00
Sud Ramada
Cygam, as of this month, has a new management team in place that is in the early stages of ramping up the activities of the Company. Gary Hyde is the new Chief Executive Officer, Brad Goldie is the new President, and Alistair Robertson is now the Chief Financial Officer. All three have extensive experience in the international oil and gas arena, and are developing a strategy to increase the growth profile of the Company.
The Company may issue a revised Annual Information Form, and thus the asset value shown in the foregoing table may be revised.
We continue to recommend purchase of the stock, based on the potential of the Tunisian and Italian assets, and maintain our target price of $1.00.
Ithaca Energy – IAE-TSXV, $2.03
Stock Rating: Strong Buy Target Price $4.00
Ithaca announced a dry hole today on the Jacky field (47.5% interest), a location that was drilled to maximize the recovery of the field. The hole encountered oil, but was too thin to be good producer (water incursion may have occurred early); it may instead be used as a water injector and thus serve the same purpose. Production may be effected downward by a few hundred barrels a day; however, by year-end, production is estimated to double to 10,000 bd, from the Cook and Athena fields (to be followed by Carna, Stella, and Harrier), a doubling from the current estimate of approximately 5,000 bd.
The stock was down over 10% on the news of the Jacky location; a large drop considering Jacky’s 2P reserves of 1.2 million barrels represents 2% of the Company’s 51.8 million barrels (including the Cook acquisition in 2011). We expect to see the stock price advance as we approach the onstream date of Athena later this year. Drilling of the horizontal leg is currently underway at Athena – results of which could possibly be the next news event.
Our Strong Buy recommendation is based on the growth in production and cash flow that is underway. The stock is trading at 3.1 times this year’s cash flow of $0.65 and at a 40% discount from asset value. In 2012, cash flow could be close to $1.00. We maintain our target of $4.00
Mart Resources Inc. – MMT-TSXV, $0.58
Stock Rating: Speculative Buy Target Price $0.90
Yesterday, on the basis of the 2010 operating and financial results, and the potential of the next drilling location, we raised our target to $0.90, reflecting the growth potential of a high productivity oil field in Nigeria. We maintain our Speculative Buy rating and target of $0.90. Warren Verbonac 403-205-2224 | wverbonac@union-securities.com EQUITY RESEARCH REPORT
Sterling Resources – SLG-TSXV, $1.88
Stock Rating: Strong Buy Target Price $6.00
Sterling’s stock has been more than cut in half from its (very) recent high of $4.94, the result of an unfortunate coincidence of bad news in a bad market. Romanian government intransigence and two dry holes at Cladhan have taken the stock to 80% of our $2.50 proven and probable asset value – largely based on just the Breagh field.
A more appropriate number would include the possible reserves, since the field is still in the development stage, and since the Company’s tax pools will shelter it from years of taxation, the 3P pre-tax calculation shown below is relevant, and conservative considering there are no reserves booked for the Cladhan field, which is an economic discovery and will be onstream in 2014.
Forecast Pricing Before Tax After Tax P.V. 10% mmboe mm /boe Reserves Proved 23.7 $377.7 $15.94 Probable 9.1 $124.9 $13.73 Possible 8.2 $120.9 $14.74 Total 41.0 $623.5 $15.21 Working Capital $138.4 Debt $0.0 Net Asset Value $761.9 Shares Outstanding, Basic 152.7 Asset Value per Share, Basic $4.99
Sterling is our top pick for long term investors seeking a diversified exploration and development opportunity. Cladhan, despite some reduction in its ultimate upside, will likely rival Breagh in valuation once reserves are booked. We maintain our Strong Buy and target of $6.00.
TransGlobe Energy – TGL-TSX, $12.43
Stock Rating: Buy Target Price $16.00
TransGlobe has held up relatively well amongst the other companies in our group, nonetheless it is off almost 40% from its high of $20.35. The Company recently achieved record production of almost 12,000 bd, despite Yemeni production of 2,300 bd being shut in. New production guidance will be issued shortly, and we expect the Company could be up to close to 20,000 bd by year-end, a two-thirds increase which is significant coming off of TransGlobe’s high current production volume.
We maintain our Buy rating and target of $16.00. Warren Verbonac 403-205-2224 | wverbonac@union-securities.com EQUITY RESEARCH REPORT
Winstar Resources – WIX-TSX, $3.70
Stock Rating: Strong Buy Target Price $7.50
Winstar’s stock has suffered from disappointment in what was a successful deep Silurian well in Tunisia. The well initially came onstream at approximately 300 bd; a gas plant is on its way to the well which will allow a higher pressured gas liquids zone to be brought onstream. Expectations are for the well to be able to produce about 1,000 boed. Recent gas prices have been close to $11/mcf, among the best in the world.
Winstar could exit 2011 with at least a 50% increase in production, and possibly a doubling, from the 1,737 reported in Q1/11.
With the stock trading at 2.6 times this year’s cash flow estimate of $1.65, and at half of its 2010 year-end asset value of $7.48 per share, the stock is one of the more compelling value and growth situations in the market.
Aleluyah!
Bob, that is EPC.V, Empire Mining, I asked about... Think you are replying about something else.
EPC.V - Bob, you still holding EPC?
7.77% Copper, 3.02 g/t Gold and 116 g/t Silver Intersected Over 5.15 Meters in Step-Out Drilling at Empire's Bursa Project
5/9/2011 9:10:55 AM - Market Wire
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA, May 09, 2011 (MARKETWIRE via COMTEX News Network) --
Empire Mining Corporation (TSX VENTURE: EPC) ("Empire") is pleased to announce assay results for the next 6 diamond drill holes completed at the Demirtepe target area of the Bursa copper-gold-silver-molybdenum project located in Turkey.
There are three identified porphyry-related target areas at Bursa of which Demirtepe is the second to be drill tested by Empire. The results of hole DTH-001 (the "Discovery Hole") drilled at Demirtepe were announced on January 18, 2011 and intersected zones of copper-gold-silver skarn mineralization, including:
-- 2.02% copper, 0.96 g/t gold, 21.64 g/t silver over a sampled width of 47.35 m from 112.2 m to 159.55 m.
The zone includes the following higher grade intercepts:
-- 6.29% copper, 3.1 g/t gold and 66.1 g/t silver over a sampled width of 12.7 m from 140.3 m to 153.0 m; and -- 9.1% copper, 4.68 g/t gold and 95.3 g/t silver over a sampled width of 8.0 m from 140.3 m to 148.3 m.
Following the announcement of the Discovery Hole at Demirtepe, Empire expanded the program with an additional 10,000 meters of diamond drilling and accelerated the drilling with additional rigs, with a total of three rigs presently operating. Full results are now available for the next six holes.
The best intercept was in hole DTH-007 which was drilled approximately 200 m to the south of the Discovery Hole, and intersected significant copper-gold-silver skarn mineralization considerably shallower than in the Discovery Hole, as follows:
-- 1.79% copper, 0.75 g/t gold and 27.1 g/t silver over a sampled width of 34.60 m from 40.60 m to 75.20 m.
The zone includes the following higher grade intercepts:
-- 3.37% copper, 1.38 g/t gold and 50.9 g/t silver over a sampled width of 17.30 m from 52.10 m to 69.20 m; and -- 7.77% copper, 3.02 g/t gold and 116 g/t silver over a sampled width of 5.15 m from 64.05 m to 69.20 m.
Other highlights include:
-- hole DTH-003A drilled approximately 80 m to the south of the Discovery
Hole, intersected 32.92 m of 0.92% copper, 0.36 g/t gold and 12.0 g/t
silver from 152.75 m depth; including 4.25 m of 3.41% copper, 1.35 g/t
gold and 43.8 g/t silver from 152.75 m to 157.00 m.
-- hole DTH-005 drilled approximately 50 m to the north of the Discovery
Hole, intersected 18.80 m of 1.40% copper, 1.89 g/t gold and 18.5 g/t
silver from 31.25 m depth; including 7.40 m of 2.00% copper, 1.17 g/t
gold and 23.6 g/t silver from 31.25 m to 38.65 m; and 13.80 m of 1.30%
copper, 0.56 g/t gold and 14.0 g/t silver from 100.70 m to 113.80 m.
The copper mineralization is hosted almost exclusively by wollastonite, a calcium silicate mineral with industrial uses, and appears to be related to a north-south feeder structure. To date, mineralization has been followed within an approximately 75 m wide structural corridor for some 250 m of strike length. The corridor is open along strike and to depth and contains multiple intercepts of copper within the receptive host lithology.
The first indications of an epithermal overprint were discovered in hole DHT-005, with 1.10 m of 20.70 g/t gold. In addition to copper, gold and silver mineralization, drilling also encountered significant values of molybdenum and zinc; hole DHT-002 drilled in the northern anomaly, approximately 600 m to the north of the Discovery Hole, intersected 21 m of 3.05% zinc from surface, and DHT-006 drilled approximately 50 m to the west of the Discovery Hole, intersected 9 m of 0.171% molybdenum. Work is in progress to piece together section-by-section geology in order to provide additional context.
A complete table of all significant results to date can be viewed at the following link:
http://www.empireminingcorp.com/i/nr/2011-05-09-table.pdf
Maps of the drilling zone can be viewed at the following link:
http://www.empireminingcorp.com/i/nr/2011-05-09-maps.pdf
Photos of drill core can be viewed at the following link:
http://www.empireminingcorp.com/i/nr/2011-05-09-photos.pdf
Four distinctive intrusive phases have been noted so far: early granite, monzonite with molybdenite frequently observed near faults, diorite porphyry with disseminated pyrite and quartz veining with occasional chalcopyrite, and hornblende porphyry, which has only been seen in outcrop. Two lines of deeper penetrating 200 m dipole-dipole IP and Resistivity have recently been completed to assist in locating the possible porphyry body believed to be responsible for the copper-wollastonite skarn mineralization, which is perceived to be more distal. Results of the interpretation are pending.
To date, 4,625 metres have been drilled in 21 completed holes at Demirtepe and three additional holes are in progress. Assays are also in the pipeline for several holes, while core from other drill holes is currently being logged and sawn for dispatched.
QUALITY ASSURANCE/QUALITY CONTROL
All core was sawn in half with sample widths determined by geology and mineralization. Individual samples within visible mineralization did not exceed 1.0 m, while the maximum sample interval was 2.0 m. Samples were bagged, security tagged and sent to the ALS Chemex sample preparation facility in Izmir, Turkey and, following preparation, to the ALS Chemex laboratory in Vancouver. Gold was determined by fire assay with AA finish, ore grade repeats were run with ICP-AES and a total of 33 elements determined by ICP after four-acid digestion. Blank, replicate and Certified Reference Material made up approximately 15% of the batch. Additional check assays are under consideration, as is the acquisition of certified reference material in the higher grade range of the received assays.
Empire's Qualified Person, David C. Cliff, BSc (Hons), MIMMM, C Eng, FGS, also Empire's President & CEO, has reviewed and approved the content of this news release.
ON BEHALF OF THE BOARD
David Cliff, President & CEO
This release contains forward-looking information and statements, as defined by law including without limitation Canadian securities laws and the "safe harbor" provisions of the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 ("forward-looking statements"), respecting Empire's exploration plans. Forward-looking statements involve risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results to be materially different from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements, including without limitation the ability to acquire necessary permits and other authorizations; environmental compliance; cost increases; availability of qualified workers; competition for mining properties; risks associated with exploration projects, mineral reserve and resource estimates (including the risk of assumption and methodology errors); dependence on third parties for services; non-performance by contractual counterparties; title risks; and general business and economic conditions. Forward-looking statements are based on a number of assumptions that may prove to be incorrect, including without limitation assumptions about: general business and economic conditions; the timing and receipt of required approvals; availability of financing; power prices; ability to procure equipment and supplies; and ongoing relations with employees, partners and joint venturers. The foregoing list is not exhaustive and Empire undertakes no obligation to update any of the foregoing except as required by law.
Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.
Contacts: Empire Mining Corporation Investor Relations 604-634-0970 or 1-888-818-1364 info@empireminingcorp.com www.empireminingcorp.com
SOURCE: Empire Mining Corporation
mailto:info@empireminingcorp.com http://www.empireminingcorp.com
Copyright 2011 Marketwire, Inc., All rights reserved.
here´s a refusal to that article:
http://www.speculative-investor.com/new/weeklyjj289c090511.html
RFE.AX, whats your purchasing price on this?
yes, one day before my mother, so it will be easy for me to remember to say Happy Birthday to Bob every year!
Yen shoot up amazingly last few days and specially today vs. Euro. Bearish sign for stock markets as well. Yen is the "deflation trade". Japan has had 3 holidays in a row. Today they will re-open their stock markets.
can you please give me some names to check out. thanks
Silver/Gold, Eur/USD and stock markets as a whole are positively correlated. So yes, Silver/Gold index tanking was bad omen for Eur/USD and if USD confirms raising vs. Euro, then we can expect the next shoe to drop: markets as a whole. Of course we already experienced a sharp drop in our commodity/mining stocks, but who says more pain isnt coming? I have raised lots of cash these last weeks, and now planing to hold on to my largest positions, MMT and FED, no matter what through the summer doldrums and beyond.
HNR just touched 200 DMA. Should be a good place to add. I bought some more
GSA now up 32% on 1M volume
Excellent news and we trade a whooping 42k shares on open. What a joke.
GSA up 24% on open ?!
Will need a little help here with my English grammar.
The company is working to complete its 2010 annual financial statements at the earliest possible date and expects to file the 2010 annual financial statements by May 31, 2011.
Does "by" mean they expect to just have it on May 31 or anytime before or on 31 May ?
Furthemore, does anyone know why they give this time reference, which is one month after the original deadline? Is there a forced cease trade for the shares or something to that tune if they dont fill in within a month of being late?
Investing in MMT is sure an exercise of extreme patience. too bad being impatient is one of my many negative traits! lol
Mart Resources receives MCTO for 2010 filing delays
2011-05-03 23:32 ET - News Release
Mr. Wade Cherwayko reports
MART RESOURCES INC., ANNOUNCES ASC MANAGEMENT CEASE TRADE ORDER
Further to its press release of May 2, 2011, as a result of a delay in the filing of its 2010 annual financial statements, management's discussion and analysis and chief executive officer and chief financial officer certificates, the Alberta Securities Commission, in accordance with its guidelines, has issued a management cease trade order that prohibits, effective immediately, all trading of the securities of Mart Resources Inc. by Wade G. Cherwayko, chairman and chief executive officer, and Angela Clark, chief financial officer. The management cease trade order will remain in place until two full business days following receipt by the ASC of the 2010 annual financial statements. The company is working to complete its 2010 annual financial statements at the earliest possible date and expects to file the 2010 annual financial statements by May 31, 2011.
Until Mart completes the filing of the 2010 annual financial statements, the company will comply with the alternative information guidelines set out in National Policy 12-203 -- cease trade orders for continuous disclosure defaults for issuers who have failed to comply with a specified continuous disclosure requirement within the times prescribed by applicable securities laws. The guidelines, among other things, require Mart to issue biweekly default status reports by way of a news release so long as the 2010 annual financial statements have not been filed.
We seek Safe Harbor.
Sorry Bob, by the looks of what you are saying, I have been front running you all day and getting those shares that you didn´t ! lol
Today was a gift on MMT. I bought a few shares at 58c that I had previously sold at 66c and thereabouts. Wish I had sold more before, but I am usually very uncomfortable doing these swing trades or whatever they are called.
Hey, they were busy watching hockey and race cars on TV. Those are Wade´s hobbies.
http://www.autoracingdaily.com/news/formula-racing/wade_cherwayko_a1_team_canada_seat_holder/
Judging from his looks i would say he smokes a lot, drinks, doenst do sports or gym but goes to other places with hot tubs....
He is a busy man, puts out a presentation every 5 years and a year end result on time year in year out ( he already failed to do so in 2009!)
What a freaking joke !!!
It came quick.... we are already delinquent with filling!!! Congrats to Wade for the great work
I hate all this monkey business of waiting until the last second to fill in. One of these days it will make MMT deliquent in its fillings.
no, just copy and paste from another board
A little bit of both I guess
Discontinuing Coverage
Following a review of FirstEnergy research resources, we are
discontinuing coverage on Pan Orient Energy.
Market Perform Ranking and $6.75 per Share Target Price
We discontinue coverage with a ranking of Market Perform
and a target price of $6.75 per share. With considerable uncertainty
pertaining to the drilling program in Thailand and
delays in Indonesia, we have diffi culty assigning full value to
the Company’s risked upside. Further, production in Thailand
has been negatively impacted due to challenges posed
by drilling in volcanic formations and the 2010 reserve writedown.
We feel there is considerable risk in the Company’s
guidance, and believe Pan Orient will have diffi culty meeting
production targets that range between 5,000 bbl/d and 6000
bbl/d in 2011e.
Our target price implies a target EV/2011e boe/d of
US$152,157 and a target EV/2011e DACF multiple of 9.0x.
Operational Update
Current production of 1,960 bbl/d is materially below our
estimates due to water incursion in the Thailand wells, delays
in exploration drilling, unsuccessful exploration drilling, and
failure to bring on shut-in volumes. Each update seems to
have its share of drilling delays, in this case in both Indonesia
and Thailand, but more worrisome is the volatility of production.
We fi nd it increasingly diffi cult to forecast production
given the huge variation in water cuts and the penchant of
the Company to miss guidance for production additions.
NWT.v - NWT Uranium Corp.: Deal got better, now you get 32c worth of assets (1/2 cash, 1/2 shares) for 17c selling price. Talk of bargains...
Largest NWT holding URU metals is red hot, blasting off 22% higher in London this morning
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=UK%3AURU&insttype=&freq=1&show=&time=8
Total value per share for NWT : 16c in cash , 16c in stock holdings, No debt. That´s 32c.
NWT seen trading at 17c (!) yesterday, almost at cash value with all the stock for free...
15 million shares of NWM Mining (NWM on the venture exchange)
1.8 million shares of Azimet Expl. (AZM on the venture exchange)
39.8 million shares of URU Metals (URU on the London exchange)
1.7 million shares of Kalahari Minerals (KAH on the London exchange)
Foreign exchange, rising costs impact Catalyst Paper in Q1
4/27/2011 6:31 PM - Canada NewsWire
RICHMOND, BC, Apr 27, 2011 (Canada NewsWire via COMTEX News Network) --
Catalyst Paper (TSX:CTL) posted a net loss of $12.9 million ($0.03 per common share) on sales of $303.6 million in the first quarter of 2011, reflecting a post-holiday season plateau in paper markets. Sales revenues were negatively impacted by the above-par Canadian dollar; however a foreign exchange gain was recorded on the translation of U.S. dollar denominated debt. In the previous quarter, net earnings of $9.6 million ($0.02 per common share) were recorded on sales of $333.6 million.
Before specific items the net loss was $23.6 million ($0.06 per common share) in the first quarter. That was down from net earnings before specific items of $4.1 million ($0.01 per common share) in the prior quarter. The first quarter operating loss was $10.9 million, in contrast to operating earnings of $0.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2010.
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) for the first quarter were $15.9 million, down from $28.7 million in the prior quarter and up from negative $16.2 million in the first quarter of 2010. EBITDA was not impacted by specific items in either the current or the prior quarter, and was negative $2.1 million before specific items in the first quarter of 2010.
"Despite the normal seasonal slump in this early part of the year, quarter-to-quarter prices improved for most paper grades, and pulp markets were strong after a brief falter in late 2010," said President and CEO Kevin J. Clarke. "It wasn't enough to balance the impact of an above-par Canadian dollar and inflationary cost pressures on our Q1 results. However, our order book is strong as we head into the second quarter and we continue to look to grow share in our key product lines in the balance of the year. On the operations side, full mill shutdowns for planned maintenance at our Powell River and Snowflake mills will have an impact on our production volumes in the second quarter."
Market Conditions
North American demand for specialty papers was down year-over-year. However, benchmark prices for coated mechanical and soft calendered grades improved modestly and Catalyst announced price increases effective April 1. Directory experienced a more significant year-over-year demand decline, although higher annual contract prices bumped the average benchmark price upward. In the specialties paper segment as a whole, sales volumes and average sales revenues were down from the prior quarter.
North American demand for newsprint continued to slip year-over-year, although at a relatively modest pace, and capacity closures and curtailments supported high operating rates and price stability. Newsprint sales volumes and average sales revenues were down and the Crofton No. 1 paper machine, representing 34,500 tonnes of capacity, remained indefinitely curtailed.
Global demand for NBSK pulp increased year-over-year largely due to a further rise in Chinese demand. This re-started the price recovery that first began in 2009 and paused in the final quarter of 2010. The benchmark price for China was up four per cent over the previous quarter. While sales volumes were down, average sales revenue was up $10 per tonne. Average delivered cash costs were also up, reflecting the impact of a 13-day planned maintenance shutdown at Crofton.
Cash Flows and Liquidity
Cash flows from operations were negative $13.0 million, improved from negative $29.8 million in the same quarter of 2010 due mainly to higher EBITDA. Catalyst redeemed US$26.0 million of remaining 2011 senior notes in February, achieving modest interest savings on the early repayment.
Total liquidity was up by $48.4 million over the same quarter in 2010, due to notes issued in the second quarter of 2010 and to the higher borrowing base resulting from higher inventory and accounts receivable associated with increased production and sales. Compared with the previous quarter, liquidity was down by $21.5 million, due largely to the early redemption of the 2011 notes.
Selected Highlights
2011 2010
(In millions of Q1 Total Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1
Canadian
dollars, except
where otherwise
stated)
Sales $ 303.6 $ 1,228.6 $ 333.6 $ 322.3 $ 299.4 $ 273.3
Operating (10.9) (367.5) 0.2 5.1 (323.9) (48.9)
earnings (loss)
Depreciation and 26.8 119.3 27.2 28.2 31.2 32.7
amortization
EBITDA (1) 15.9 46.3 28.7 34.2 (0.4) (16.2)
- before 15.9 71.6 28.7 34.5 10.5 (2.1)
specific items
(1)
Net earnings (12.9) (396.9) 9.6 6.0 (368.4) (44.1)
(loss)
attributable to
the company
- before (23.6) (87.0) 4.1 (9.6) (43.9) (37.6)
specific items
(1)
EBITDA margin 5.2% 3.8% 8.6% 10.6% (0.1%) (5.9%)
(1)
- before 5.2% 5.8% 8.6% 10.7% 3.5% (0.8%)
specific items
(1)
Net earnings
(loss) per share
attributable to
the company's
common
shareholders (in
dollars)
- basic and $ (0.03) $ (1.04) $ 0.02 $ 0.02 $ (0.96) $ (0.12)
diluted
- before (0.06) (0.23) 0.01 (0.03) (0.11) (0.10)
specific items
(1)
(In thousands of
tonnes)
Sales 399.4 1,634.9 434.1 412.1 404.5 384.2
Production 410.4 1,625.7 429.8 417.7 403.0 375.2
(1) Refer to section 6, Non-GAAP measures, of our Q1 2011 Management's Discussion & Analysis
Other Developments and Outlook
Print advertising continues to be challenged by Internet and related media platforms with directory and newsprint demand taking the brunt of structural declines. The Crofton No. 1 paper machine will, therefore, remain idled. Specialty papers are faring better with coated and uncoated mechanical pricing and demand expected to pick up slightly in the second quarter, leading into a seasonally stronger second half of the year. Pulp demand is expected to remain strong with further pricing momentum ahead.
On the labour front, Catalyst and the United Steelworkers (USW) Local 2688 which represents 186 Snowflake mill employees ratified renewal of an agreement through to February 28, 2014. On April 22, 2011 a tentative agreement was reached with the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers to replace the current contract expiring May 1, 2011 covering 34 Snowflake hourly employees with a new agreement for the period May 1, 2011 to April 30, 2014.
Energy-related capital projects at Port Alberni and Powell River, funded under the Canadian federal government's Pulp and Paper Green Transformation Program, are on track for completion by early 2012. As well, the Forest Stewardship Council chain-of-custody system is being implemented at the company's BC mills and will supplement the existing Programme for the Endorsement of Forest Certification system already in place.
Cost pressure on inputs will remain a factor in the second quarter as Chinese demand for old newspaper (ONP) continues to put significant pressure on supply and price. Planned maintenance shutdowns at the Powell River and Snowflake mills will also have an impact in the second quarter. Capital spending for 2011, net of the Green Transformation Program credits, is now projected to be $25 million, reduced from the previous estimate of $35 million.
On April 18, 2011 a fire in the storage yard at the Snowflake mill destroyed approximately 11,000 tonnes of recovered ONP. The fire did not have any significant impact on any of the mill's production equipment and both paper machines were back in production April 21, 2011. The cause of the fire is under investigation. The combined impact of the inventory loss, equipment damage and fighting the fire is estimated at approximately $4 million and is less than the insurance deductible of $5 million.
Further Quarterly Results Materials
This release, a summary slide presentation, and full quarterly report (MD&A, financial statements and accompanying notes) are available on our web site at www.catalystpaper.com/Investors. The full quarterly report is also filed with SEDAR in Canada and EDGAR in the United States.
Catalyst Paper manufactures diverse specialty mechanical printing papers, newsprint and pulp. Its customers include retailers, publishers and commercial printers in North America, Latin America, the Pacific Rim and Europe. With four mills, located in British Columbia and Arizona, Catalyst has a combined annual production capacity of 1.9 million tonnes. The company is headquartered in Richmond, British Columbia, Canada and its common shares trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol CTL. Catalyst is listed on the Jantzi Social Index® and is ranked by Corporate Knights magazine as one of the 50 Best Corporate Citizens in Canada.
Kevin J. Clarke, president and CEO and Brian Baarda, vice-president, finance and CFO will hold a conference call on Thursday, April 28, 2011 at 11 a.m. ET, 8 a.m. PT to present the company's first quarter results. Financial analysts and institutional investors are invited to dial 1-888-231-8191 (North America) or 1-647-427-7450 (Toronto / International) reservation number 56823697#. Media and other interested people may join the live webcast in listen-only mode at www.catalystpaper.com.
Forward-Looking Statement
Certain matters in this news release, including statements with respect to general economic and market conditions, demand for products, pricing expectations, anticipated cost savings and capital expenditures, are forward looking. These forward-looking statements reflect management's current views and are based on certain assumptions including assumptions as to future economic conditions, demand for products, levels of advertising, product pricing, ability to achieve operating and labour cost reductions, currency fluctuations, production flexibility and related courses of action, as well as other factors management believes are appropriate. Such forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in these statements, including those risks and uncertainties identified under the heading "Risks and Uncertainties" in Catalyst's management's discussion and analysis contained in Catalyst's annual report for the year ended December 31, 2010, and our first quarter interim report available at www.sedar.com.
To view this news release in HTML formatting, please use the following URL: http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/April2011/27/c7372.html
SOURCE: Catalyst Paper Corporation
<p> </p> <table border="0" valign="top">
<tr> <td> Investors: <br/> Brian
Baarda<br/> Vice-President, Finance & CFO<br/>
604-247-4710 </td> <td> <br/> <br/> <br/>
</td> <td> <br/> <br/> <br/> </td> <td>
Media:<br/> Lyn Brown<br/> Vice-President, Corporate
Relations<br/> 604-247-4713 </td> </tr> </table> <p>
</p>
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Groundstar Resources Provides Update on the Apoteri K-2 Exploration Well, Takutu Basin, Guyana
CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - April 25, 2011) -
NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION TO U.S. NEWS WIRE SERVICES OR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES
Groundstar Resources Limited ("Groundstar" or the "Company")(TSX VENTURE:GSA) provides the following update on drilling and testing activities at the Apoteri K-2 exploration well located in the Takutu Basin of Guyana.
On April 20, 2011 the measured drill depth of the well reached 2,992 metres. The top of the Manari was encountered at 2,402 metres, 210 metres high to prognosis; the top of the Apoteri was encountered at 2,431 metres, 281 metres high to prognosis. At 2,517 metres an unexpected down to the southeast fault was encountered which significantly shortened the Manari section to a thickness of 29 metres compared to a thickness of 118 metres at the Karanambo-1 discovery well drilled by Home Oil in 1982. The fault also caused the Apoteri Volcanics to be encountered much higher than prognosed. Elevated gas readings (C1-C5) and oil shows were identified at various intervals in the Manari and Apoteri. A full suite of logs were run to 2,593 metres. The FMI (Formation Micro Image) log identified numerous fracture swarms in the Manari and Apoteri.
Based upon the gas and oil shows and log interpretation, drill stem tests (DSTs) have been conducted to date as follows in measured depths:
DST 1 (Manari-Apoteri): 2,445 to 2,571 metres, misrun;
DST 2 (Manari-Apoteri): 2,445 to 2,571 metres, recovered 20 metres drilling mud, reservoir was tight;
DST 3 (Apoteri): 2,656 to 2,799 metres, recovered 73 metres drilling mud from low permeability reservoir;
DST 4 (Apoteri): 2,897 to 2,991 metres, recovered 2,300 metres of formation salt water from a high permeability fracture zone at 2,976 metres.
Although excellent reservoir quality was encountered in this interval of the Apoteri Formation, the reservoir appears to have been penetrated below the oil – water contact, defined by the interval of good oil and gas shows between 2,515 and 2,841 metres.
Over the course of the next week the Apoteri K-2 well will be abandoned. The consortium is currently evaluating the next exploration drilling location on the block.
About Groundstar Resources Limited
Groundstar is a publicly traded Canadian junior oil and gas company actively pursuing exploration opportunities in Guyana, North Africa and the Middle East.
This press release may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable securities laws. Forward-looking statements may include estimates, plans, anticipations, expectations, opinions, forecasts, projections, guidance or other similar statements that are not statements of fact. Although the Company believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, it can give no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. These statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties and may be based on assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated or implied in the forward-looking statements. These risks include, but are not limited to: the risks associated with the oil and gas industry (e.g. operational risks in development, exploration and production; delays or changes in plans with respect to exploration or development projects or capital expenditures; the uncertainty of reserve estimates; the uncertainty of estimates and projections relating to production, costs and expenses and health, safety and environmental risks), commodity price and exchange rate fluctuation and uncertainties resulting from potential delays or changes in plans with respect to exploration or development projects or capital expenditures. The Company's forward-looking statements are expressly qualified in their entirety by this cautionary statement. The forward-looking statements contained in this press release are made as of the date hereof and the Company undertakes no obligations to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements or information, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, unless so required by applicable securities laws.
Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.
This transmission is provided for informational purposes only, and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities discussed herein in any jurisdiction. You have requested to receive updates on the company listed above. If you wish to have your email address removed from this distribution list please reply to this email with the word “remove” in the subject heading. Your request will be honored immediately.
CEN.V
MACQUARIE RESEARCH
Monday, 11 April, 2011
CANADA
Coastal Energy - Best well to date at Bua Ban North A; rig moving on to drill ‘B’ prospect
Event
§ Coastal announced that the Bua Ban North A-03 exploration well encountered 125 feet of net pay in the Miocene, with average porosity of 28%. Coastal estimates this fault block could contain OOIP of 20 mmbbl, and brings estimated discovered OOIP to 55 mmbbl from the three discoveries made to date at Bua Ban North A.
§ Coastal apparently encountered the Miocene in four different intervals, and while a full development plan has yet to be determined, expects to use horizontal wells to develop the prospect. Costs per well are estimated at US$3.5–4.0m.
§ Coastal's drilling rig will now move to Bua Ban North B, to test up to 22.2 mmbbl of recoverable resource potential in the Miocene, Lower Oligocene and Eocene.
Impact
§ Positive. Coastal has now made oil discoveries in three of the four exploration wells drilled to date at Bua Ban North A. These discoveries confirm the potential of the Miocene fairway to the north of Bua Ban, and provide good growth visibility over current corporate reserves of 54.0 mmbl.
§ Coastal will move the MOPU to begin production testing the Bua Ban North A discoveries by mid-May, at which point we should have a better idea of the productive capacity of the area. There are several undrilled prospects remaining at Bua Ban North A, but Coastal will wait until it has a development plan in hand before exploring further up here.
Earnings and target price revision
§ Increasing target price and RENAV (PV10AT, flat pricing) by C$0.75 to C$10.75.
Price catalyst
§ 12-month price target: C$10.75 based on a 1.0x RENAV methodology.
§ Catalyst: Bua Ban North B exploration drilling; year-end results and reserves expected on 18 April 2011.
Action and recommendation
§ Bua Ban North A now appears to represent Coastal's biggest exploration success to date outside of Songkhla and Bua Ban Main. Three successful discoveries out of four wells leaves us optimistic that there is more to come at Bua Ban North, beginning with the ‘B' prospect, which we value at C$0.46/sh risked (C$1.96/sh unrisked).
Bob, whats your take on Schaefer´s latests recommendation, the Australian shale oil Petrofrontier, PFC.v ?
NWT- NWT Uranium:
Got wacked cause of the Japanese uranium scare and its absurdly valued just because of that:
It has about 15c cash/share and no debt.
15c is current price. You get for free their holdings:
15M shares in NWM
1.8 M shares in AZM
Shares in London listed uranium outfits URU and KAH
All worth about 11c per share more.Total 26c for 15c. not a bad deal.
They also have a MOU with Vietnam for the development of atomic energy
POE (and GSA) , Pescod
CANACOL ENERGY (V-CNE) $1.53 +0.03
PAN ORIENT ENERGY (V-POE) $7.45 +0.56
For those that like the high risk/high reward plays, this
might be a weekend spent with a little less sleep, maybe
even a little more sweating than normal because next week
there could be results out on a couple of the more interesting
plays.
Canacol Energy and Sagres Energy are both involved in a
play in Guyana that we’ve written up a bunch...30 years
ago, Home Oil drilled and came up with 400 barrels a day.
One assumes that with modern technology, they could improve
upon that, right? But they aren’t drilling exactly the
same location as 30 years ago and so far, this has been the
‘hole from hell.’ Anything that could go wrong with the
drilling program, has gone wrong.
The target is huge as some analysts are talking about
100 million maybe even 150 million barrel potential. Needless
to say, results will have an impact for Sages Energy
and Canacol Energy.
Meanwhile, Sterling Resources should have news on its
first of three wells on the Cladhan and as Verbonac has
mentioned before, the question is how big this play might
be. Is it 150 million barrels or is it as much as 700 million
barrels or where is it in between.
The three wells should narrow it down...and then onto
the North Sea and the Paris Basin where Sterling is one of
the biggest land holders.
Meanwhile, Pan Orient Energy should be about two-thirds
of the way finished their first hole in Indonesia. They will
be drilling two wells before they start testing, but little Pan
Orient, with only 60 million shares outstanding and has a
huge 97% of a very considerable play, the first of two very
big ones in Indonesia.
Today Pan Orient’s stock started to show that people are
watching this play, even though the market just doesn’t
know what to do these days...
POE at HOD 7.55 or up almost 10%. Looks like we have a hit here.... Ready for take off !!!
I just saw there was one big cross which accounts for about half the volume, TD Sec - TD Sec for about 630k
Still, very suspicious action...
I just added more to my position
POE >1M shares served so far.Must be Indonesia leak ?
I hope they can sell it to CNOOC for at least 15 bucks per share of HNR and do a special dividend, or they might sell the whole company to CNOOC now that they dont have the US assets.Venezuela + Indonesia + Africa its a great fit for the Chinese. HNR management reiterated on the last C.C. that everything is opened for sale at the right price...
offering closed according to my broker, no units available anymore
got some warrants too today at 59c in a account where I really need the leverage. Sold shares at 1.20 to pay for them. Warrant is 45c in the money, paying 14c as premium for 18 months looked reasonable.
PVG got whacked today. I hope secondary prices as low as possible as I sold all my shares at high 11s. Anyone heard anything on the pricing process?
how exactly do you determine what they are worth at any time? tried using online calculators before, but always get lost when having to fill in "volatility" field. lol. which besides in this case ( having been trading for only 2 or 3 weeks) should be very unrealistic to figure out?