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al44: What have U got against dogs!
lj: Forget it and move on, is my advice. I am beginning to think it would be better, at least for the sake of my portfolio, to swing trade stocks rather than sell options. Calls are no longer something I will even consider. Well out of the money puts might still be in the cards, but, I might not even sell those. They tie up money until the expiration date. Selling puts does make sense if you want to own the stock at a lower price. You get paid to wait.
I could have ponied up $8K recently to buy back the January NVDA call I sold many moons ago, and the strike price is $300, not $350, as I previously stated, in error. NVDA made a bottom then started a march north. The last time I checked, the cost of buying in the call was something like $14K. I have a decent profit in the stock at $300, but, I do not want that profit on my 2023 tax return. So there is another reason not to sell a call!
Have a nice weekend!
lj: VTLE
Unless there is a selloff in oil stocks in the last hour of trading, the $45 call seems to be in the bag, or should I say drum.
I am no TA person, but it seems that VTLE has found a strong support level at approximately $45 a share. Fidelity's stupid trading system did me a favor. Now, taking out my violin, I am losing 100 shares of Target at $119 at the close. I thought it was 200 shares, but the other 100 are in another account, and, fortunately, I did not sell the same call there. Next week, if TGT comes back down, I'll look at the puts. Short trading week, which, imo, is a good week to play options.
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lj: VTLE
Good point. In my case the shares are in an IRA, so I won't be taking a tax loss!
lj: I nominate you for the Board of Directors! EOM
lj: Good thesis. EOM
lj: It was a glitch. I called them and they couldn't explain it.
lj: I doubt XOM will cut its dividend. Their cash flow is mind blowing.
lj: Big drop in WTI today. XOM down to $101 and change. The yield is very competitive.
Here is the interesting part. VTLE is below $45 but not dropping like a rock.
I tried to buy in those $45 puts that expire tomorrow, and a glitch at Fidelity wouldn't let the trade go through.
So, I am riding it out.
lj: Posting on the fly:
The Obama Administration III took the Houthi's off of the terrorist list after they took office.
My neighbor is going to travel 800 miles for Thanksgiving in a diesel truck. Wouldn't want to pay for that fuel.
I'd hate to see VTLE bought out at $60 or $65 a share. Don't think management would accept an offer that low.
Last week's 30-year Treasury auction was a disaster. If I had nerve, I'd sell everything and put it in GLD.
The Republicans called it a day until after Thanksgiving. I hope Speaker Johnson knows what he is doing.
And so we watch the mess.
lj: VTLE still looking good. Sold TGT $119 calls yesterday. Another disaster. Just read that the market is spooked by this:
"The Dow Jones Industrial Average has just seen a "death cross" — a technical pattern where a shorter-term moving average (typically 50-day) drops below a longer-term one (200-day)."
NYBob: I don't think that is true, NYBob. EOM
AAA travel forecast, weather permitting:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/where-weather-could-cause-problems-223138972.html
Gmenfan: Great find.
"We struggle to sort this out. One explanation is that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has infiltrated the management of our country at every level so as to eventually conquer our territory for its resources while eliminating or enslaving the population." There is lots of evidence to support this idea. It is as scary as "h".
China plays the long game.
Kevin McCarthy is a class action--not! https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12750749/Tim-Burchett-Kevin-McCarthy-elbow-attack.html
lj: VTLE had a good day for a change. Seeing the House Republicans kick the budget can down the road today, I'm inclined to sell lots of positions into this rally if it continues. But not VTLE, of course.
lj: gasoline
Paid $3.19 at a Royal Farm Station. Saw $3.09 but passed it by, thinking I'd find it cheaper.
Didn't have time to get the cheap stuff below $3.00.
Eight dirt-bag Republicans went with the Dems on MTG's impeachment resolution, and the resolution didn't pass. Had they voted with their party, the vote would be tied. Speaker Johnson would case the tiebreaking vote, and we know how he would have voted.
Those sob's. I am very disappointed with Darrell Issa. Do the Mexican cartels have their hooks into any of these people?
lj: TSLA
Unless they have improved the technology, the original Teslas had thousands and thousands of AA size lithium-ion batteries inside. Not sure where they still do.
NYBob: J.D. Vance is great. We are lucky to have him and Matt Gaetz. They are leaders.
Thanks for the video. Two thumbs up!
LJ: MEXCO
I own some shares of this Colorado company with interests in the Permian.
EPS not good, but the stock has moved a little lately on pathetic volume.
This is more or less a microcap.
lj: Thanksgiving travel is on the horizon. Guess we should keep our ear to the ground to get AAA's estimate of the number of people who will be traveling next week. If the weather is mild in most of the northern climes, the number might be huge.
SSKILLZ1: NYCB
Thank you for the excellent analysis.
I agree with you on the substandard loan increase. That is not a good sign.
There is big concern about commercial loans in the business media. They anticipate it getting a lot worse, saying it is a looming crisis.
I plan to sit on the sidelines. The NYC market might be the last place to invest in a bank with commercial loans.
Thank you again.
al44: The problem with allegations of election fraud is that court's don't want to hear cases.
Gmenfan: And they bought the bats from an alleged roadside zoo not that far from Camp Davis.
Ft. Detrick, Maryland is in that general area, too.
Ever heard of a roadside zoo with bats?
China claimed that the U.S. military created the Covid virus.
If this were fiction, no one would read it because it would seem too implausible.
Gmenfan: This is music to my ears. Did she honestly think she could get away with it?
Kudos to those neighbors. I hope they have the courage of their convictions, because evil people will be after them.
If the suburbs of Northern Virginia and Maryland were joined with D.C. to create a State, Virginia would easily go red, and there is a high probability that Maryland would too. There are more conservatives in Maryland than you might think.
Those D.C. suburbs control the Maryland legislature. They run things.
lj: VTLE
So we need to do some roleplaying.
Do U want to be Warren Buffett or Charlie Munger?
I'll be the one U don't choose.
Next, we buy VTLE hand over fist!
Actually, you can be Charlie since U are the brains of the outfit.
Even $110 per share land value is eye popping.
Throw in the ridiculous PE and the modest share count and very manageable debt,
then ask yourself "Are we looking a gift horse in the mouth"?
If it is put to me at $45 on Friday, I'll be a happy camper.
Coming back down to earth, the lack of a dividend is what makes this stock a hard sell.
I just had to throw that in, didn't I!
lj: DVN
Thanks for your thoughts. I believe the dividend is variable, but don't quote me.
On another note, 87 octane petrol going for $2.93 at one station not far from here.
Did they rig the price ahead of the election but their timing was off?
When oil drops, pumps prices decline at a snail's pace.
Didn't happen this time, which takes me back to my rigging rap!
Or, just maybe, we are in a recession. We won't know for months.
I believe the House Republicans are working on a deal to kick the Govt. shutdown down the road.
SSKILLZ1: NYCB
Jenny Harrington made it her "final trade" pick on CNBC's Half Time Report" today. I doubt she would recommend it if she didn't think the dividend is safe. Before I put any money into the stock, I would want to know the extent of its exposure to commercial real estate.
lj: XOM seems to have found a bottom in the $103-104 range, and I hope VTLE is doing the same at $45.
VTLE's hedges are starting to look better every day!
lj: The election results in Virginia don't bode well for oil stocks in the long run, or even for 2025.
If the greens dominate, we are going to have major electricity shortages down the road.
The U.S. is sinking, pure and simple.
The third world continues to pour across the southern border.
Totally treasonous, but who is stopping it. No one.
lj: VTLE 13M shares isn't bad at all, imo, because the current share count is far from high.
I am satisfied with holding VTLE for another year. It will get there.
lj: XOM
Started a position in my IRA. The yield is just under 4 percent. Of course, I purchased it with money that was getting close to 5 percent in a Government MM.
VTLE: Down over $3 this morning on a drop in the oil.
Get close to the $45 put price.
Could the Government have used its heavy hand to force refiners to keep prices down under after today, which is election day?
Maybe way too conspiratorial a thought.
So there you have it: proof that conservatives were censored ahead of the 2020 election:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12719021/DHS-disinformation-group-Stanford-2020-election-emails.html
VTLE is back to its old tricks. Hardly a surprise.
lj: Perhaps we should a snail-mail letter to VTLE's CEO, pointing out the attractions of acquiring REI!
lj: ngas
How well I remember: "VTLE showed over a 70% reduction in natural
gas revenue in 3rd quarter,2023 versus
3rd quarter,2022 because natural gas price
gouging was in play in 3rd quarter of 2022..."
That was due to the Ukraine war and the lack of Russian ngas to Europe.
I hope they are better prepared this year, because last winter was very mild, a mitigating circumstance.
Ngas is just an added attraction for VTLE.
VTLE's price is laughable, but I'll be laughing more and buy if it goes 10 percent lower.
LJ: OT (EV charging)
Note paragraph 6. What a joke.
https://www.yahoo.com/autos/study-reveals-truth-effects-tesla-050000840.html
lj: VTLE
Thank you for the highlights. The hedge contracts seems reasonable. If the economy softens, oil might fall well below $75, assuming China's economy stays soft, too.
I wouldn't count on a regular dividend. A special dividend at the end of next year would be nice.
There might be further acquisitions. They are doing a good job in that regard.
My price target is $65-70 a share, based upon recent history.
It would be nice to pick up shares at $45-46. Stranger things have happened.