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another technical aspect everybody has to consider:
it is common practice for shorters in the biotech space to drive the price down and sell short everything they hoping for the company to issue new shares....et voilà...short covering without any pain, because the shorters are going to subscribe the new issue.
and back again to their old game.
we are on the verge of a disaster should a dilution happen.
fred, dilution when you are in lack of compliance with NASDAQ listing rilues it is more than suicidal.
you will have to issue like more 10mln more (30% dilution) shares @ current prices, since you will likely have a -20% or more after the new shares being sold, immediately contracting market cap.
the risk is that you are again in no-compliance zone in a matter of weeks. not to speak about any possible new warrants.
or a convertible...then we are dead (toxic financing).
I can see a new issue happening after a reverse split, but then we all now what happens to biotechs who go for a RS...they become the shorter paradise aiming.
therefore I truly hope mr Patience will bring some wall Street savvy, and will push the hardest possible way for any other solution.
Monday - PDUFA date
If mr Patience is a navigated wall Street expert, he sure knows Monday will be a great occasion for shorters to push the share price the lower they can.
so, if I was him, and had some (1) bullett in my gun, that would be the right time to use it.
I'm not sure about the timing of the survey; I would love to see that it is being done becouse they currently have 2 or 3 possible immediate options and would like to hear from shareholders. Then, on Monday, after the bad FDA announcement shoot the bullett.
Sorry guys, still suffering of Allucinations due to excessive use of opiod meds to alleviate my post AdComm headache
Just start with message post# 29129 (which is the one Doog replied to, just to have it upped )...and then go back reading each of message which was relpied to.
Dilution at this level ONLY if the buyer is a long term player with 12months lock up period and network in the pharma community.
Otherwise you go 20% down just on the news.
Will contact the person for the survey tomorrow.
This process tell us they are nowhere close to any agreement, partnership or major strategic move.
Short are having their life easy unless either a big partnership or a big buyer does show up.
At the moment we can only hope in a partner, even if it looks to be very unlikely short term, due to Odidi lack of strategy vision.
With a partnership he would have solved company cash position, reputation, strategic path and share price action.
All in one single move called Regabatin... I'm therefore going crazy trying to understand why on earth he didn't do it.
Hope it is just for lack of skills and not something bad related to the product.
Samsa, very happy to read you again.
I personally contacted Odidi (and got a reply) and the BoD...but I'm not sure they read it since I got nothing.
I don't know what you are working on/if you are working on something, but whatever it is...go like a bulldozer !!
you know them ? and why did you buy as you stated after the AdComm ?
didn't they tell you they were going to push the stock below 1.00 ?
0.40 could be...if stocks keeps on moving on 200k $ daily basis even a bounch of students with a pc in a garage could drive the stock down.
and if you really know them, pls inform us when they are done
doog, I understand your feelings,
but a call the new CFO is definetely something you should do; is he aware of the gaming with the stock ?
if you are still long as you stated (and I have no reasons to think otherwise) give him a call, maybe you can tell him something useful for his future activities in IPCI.
we don't know how wide is the mandate which Odidi gave him, for once...maybe we could be surprised ?
honestly I belive we shareholders should deserve a surprise...likely more than one, given our long time patience.
Yeah, Patience... LoL
since june IPCI had a "Preliminary" new shelf prospectus. at the beginning of sept, as per Sedar, it was withdrawn by the company, but not replaced by a final version or anything else.
could really mean nothing, but it seems right now IPCI has not an active shelf prospectus .
Anyway I am not an expert, so I could be wrong and I'm implying anyhing, just sharing my doubts.
I'm crossing my fingers just until friday, hoping for a rabbit out of a hat...the best we can expect for rexista is a merciful CRL.
JMHO
If we had a master of strategy, instead of Odidi, I would have dreamed of a triple-head Agreement among IPCI-FDA-Purdue on Rexista, something where FDA grants tentative, which becomes Final beacuse Purdue has agreed with IPCI to use Rexista under a licensing Agreement 8even with very modest Royalties)...ok...sorry...reality check...CRL is coming
Angelo, Amazing job and thanks so much for sharing your spreadsheets.
@ Wimusky: do you think are we likely heading to 0.5 by year end ?
The shorters game has become now more apparent than ever: I remember when me and Samsa kept on stressing how sick was this stock behaviour even when positive developments happened.
Now we have the higher short interest (2.9mln shares) and the share price more easily controlled. the list of institutional shareholders hasn't change since AdComm except for those 2 small which I wrote about some days ago. this reinforces my feeling that we have 3-4 persons, with an algo one pc each which have been sinply making whatever they want over the last 3 yrs. Fault on Odidi, beacuse I'm sure he knows them and he has been palying at the I-show-you-who-is-the-strongest game.
I strongly believe the objective of the Group is to get in control of the company for the cheap, outnumbering Odidi's shares with major buys aroudn the lows we are likely to see in the coming weeks.
Let's be realistic: we are heading towards 20Mln of mkt cap, and I'm sure many of you know persons (not institutions) who could easily bought out the entire company if Odidi was not THE probelm.
Only one thing could change this scenario from happening: a partnership on Regabatin or Prodras OR a cash infusion from a sale of some of the ANDAs.
After AdComm I have been praying for some major development BEFORE 25th of September. Now we can be sure this is not going to happen.
Odidi will likely understand it the hard way, when with the stock @ 0.5 one day he will discover he is no longer the major shareholder. that's very sad, but he did prove that he is so stubborn he could drove the company against a wall while screaming I know what I am doing.
CRL on monday seems inevitable; our only hope is Patience finds out a way for not issuing new shares (hei, by the way, shelf prospectus was withdrawn but not replaced so far...is it nothing or...don't know)
Honestly the new CFO couldn't make miracles in 3 weeks and unless something was already up (which I doubt) he needs time to get deeper knowledge of the company and start to deploy his network of business contacts.
@ Doog...like in the Aerosmith song..."..with the blink of an eye, you finally see the light"...
it is just to soon, our eyes are still too wide open LoL
Holding LONG...hoping for the best....expecting the worst
I was trying to understand more about this company: I read many pages of this board and some SEC filings.
these are my points:
- those blaming shareholders for this situations are either very biased by personal interests or they just don't get it: this story is a huge con versus shareholders
- the CEO and the BOD have been engaged a war against the shareholders: one R/S approved, toxic financing via convertible having the worst terms I have ever seen, other two R/S request rejected and now accelereted re-listing (as they call it)
- the sad story here is that it seems their prodcut is working, and some people are having more years to live; while the management is trying to destroy the company and likely file for BK
those who are long and long big...sue the company, prepare for a class action against the BOD and the CEO in partcuar.
and write to all possible journalist interested in showing an oncology company deliberately driven against a wall (maybe to get then bought in pieces by a big pharma under a ch 11 procedure ?)
remember the name of the CEO and work on financial boards so that everybody is aware of who she is and stay away from everythin she touches.
good luck longers
Shareholders as of 31st July: we had jus 2 small positions being closed.
- HAUCK & AUFHAUSER INVESTMENT SA sold out its complete position of 16'570 shares (held through their bioscience fund)
- INDEPENDENT FUND MGMT sold out part of its position 17'950 out of 116'627 shares (held through thier Cumbria Global Fund)
as a reminder on the 31st of July the share price closed @ 1.27
in terms of volume we had
- 3.5Mln shares on 27th
- 495K shares on 28th
- 588K shares on 31st
Apparently of the 5% held by institutionals there was just a 0.05% cut during the first 3 days post AdCoN (LoL)
we are now more than 45days past the 26th of July AdCon LOL
means any important change in shareholders should start to emerge from filings (required whithin 45 days from transaction).
I bet there were no changes after the frefall; this will eventually confirm the idea that a couple of f... i.... has played the stock down and is keeping it from recovering.
today it took 300 (3hundreds) of shares to push it down from 1.00 to 0.98
Have to sell all my ipci shares to cover for costs...so I'll pass.
I have to admit I am very demanding in terms of trip budget. LoL
My points on company update:
1. to have a company update is PER SE a BIG plus (hope mr Patient is behind this new approach)
2. this update to me neutralizes aggressive expectations on Rexista; very likely we are not seeing the product in the market before 2019 (good call Wimusky). and by the way: more than 1 year since last judicial step ?? I'm not a lawyer, but does this mean Purdue is prevailing ? they have FOR SURE more than 1 year hold. anyway 9months for HAP/HAL studies on Intransal still to go. Oral abuse likely abandoned.
3. focus should be shifting on PRODRAS, which is good (I liked the "to bring this potentially differentiating technology to market” )
4. no clues on Generic Seroquel XR® and Generic Focalin XR®
5. international (to me mainly Canada, which is not small thing)
"actively pursuing opportunities it has identified outside of the U.S. to expand global market reach."
6. nothing new on possible new partnering (still pursued)"continues to pursue partnering opportunities"
7. likely actions on manufacturing and again attention to international: "focused on optimizing manufacturing and increasing marketing activities in non-U.S. markets to support product sales"
In conclusion: no mention on Cash needs and Regabatin (can be either good sign or bad sign, we just don't know).
The idea to start pushing the non-US markets (Canada, maybe UK-Australia?) is positive, mainly in the sense of being diversfied towards FDA risk...which is the elephant in the room (see ANDAs delays and Rexista-AdCOmm-Purdue lawsuit connection).
Hope mr Patient will be able to shift focus from Rexista to another big catalyzer.
Reading through the new CFO PR; he seems to be the perfect fit.
I believe some words were spcifically put in there by IPCI:
" has deep expertise in all facets of business, including operations,
trade,
finance,
regulatory and business development,
both nationally and internationally.
helped grow .....to a 12-drug, 36 country international platform.
oversaw several significant acquisitions,
and implemented a low-cost operating model
investor relations,
and negotiating and executing key agreements for distribution and sales of products
Mr. Patient added, “Intellipharmaceutics has an expansive pipeline of high potential products and technology platforms - I look forward to working with Dr. Odidi and the Intellipharmaceutics team to help bring the Company to the next level in its development.”
@ Impact: 6 dollar per share buyout would mean a 180Mln company value. IF Regabatin gets partnered (via standard practice agreements with a big pharma) and IF Prodras proves itslef valid in human trials I see the company value North of 500Mln. likely in mid 2018, not NOW. 6 dollar could only be part of a much complex Agreement made of several milestones. I don't see it happening any time soon.
A seasoned CFO should know that if you delute when your price is already below 1.00 and the subscriber is a financial player, you are then very close to the shorting spiral which leads then to a Reverse Split.
Anything can happen, but this ruote would be suicidal at this moment.
A possible purchase of shares by the new CFO would at least make a dilution less likely.
I insist with my idea that if they don't partner soon we are likely to have a terrible future.
Jmho
Wimus,
they have to partner/sell out something ! If they don't, after likely no go @PDUFA date (in whichever form) we will be at much lower prices than today.
The only acceptable (to me) dilution is with a strategic partner (in the like INCYTE did with Agenus) : in our case, 5-10 mln shares @ 1.00 subscribed by the new partner.
A dilution with new shares in favour of a financial player will destroy us.
JMHO
Wimus, could it be that those data aren't for the XR version of the Quetiapine Fumarate; since I remembered Lupin and Accord being approved same period as IPCI just by my memory I then tought I was wrong.
But now I see where the mess in the data could be.
Fred, many thanks for those data extractions.
Any idea if there is a sort of deadline or common timeline for the CRL communication ?
Or can it potentially happen even on the the before PDFUA's date ?
still 24 days.
Fred, could try and find same breakdown u did for Mallinckrodt relative to competitors which received final approval when IPCI did ?
maybe for LUPIN, ACCORD and if I remember well PHARMADAX ?
it would very helpful for our analysis to have a grasp on how they did start .
TIA
LOL,
too bad, I was about to jump on my seat...
"Keep being the voice of reality on IPCI "
"I doubt Rexista is pulled back. I expect it will be advanced forward. "
given the object of the critics to fred I understood were ONLY on his idea of Rexista getting shelfed, I think Amigo you agree with the rest of the board. Besides many here expressed more than one time a good opinion on fred's analysis.
So you are putting here your sarcarsm addressing it to Whole board while you are clearing referring to one person. not fair.
what about your "suspect" aboout "most recent property" ? do you feel any major shareholders is in the driver's seat now
Could you share your thoughts ?
TIA
Fred, on the 3rd of august, included in the company PR:
"The Company has an FDA approved protocol for a human abuse potential study for the intranasal route of abuse, which it plans on commencing in the coming weeks."
it looks like they could likely already be doing the HAP studies for intranasal. For sure (given their modus operandi) they are not going to tell us.
On the prospectus:
they are witing for the definitive document to be approved by the SEC; in fact the "Preliminary" date 26th of May doc was withdrawn.
Now, why withdrawing it without a contextual replacement with the newly approved SEC doc I honestly don't know; it can really be anything, but it is not strictly PER SE linked to a new offering.
reference here
http://www.sedar.com/DisplayCompanyDocuments.do?lang=EN&issuerNo=00029068
Just to stay in your "pipe and smoke" case, I remember a poster many times asking for the shelf prospectus to be removed in order to attract (in the sense of being more sexy)
institutional investors.
Yes, I agree, there could be other reasons.
If not here where are u going to write it? Could send me a pm ?
"there might not be any good news coming from the company until 2018".
In this case we are likely going below 0.50, not because the value will be such that, but ...well, we know why.
Wimus, I do have a 5% expectation for a rexista approval in Sept.
But are these guys (IPCI) really saying nothing and more importantly, not advancing any other strategic project before being slammed by the FDA about rexista ?
That would be another blood bath, but even worst would mean Odidi didn't get that the company needs major changes.
It really seems the price has to stay below or @ 1.00; a possibile "pre-arranged ATM" ? just speculating on my side, but looks strange to have a repeating seller for many days now around this area.
this silence is Killing me, and board silence is just making more frustrating.
GLTA
fingers crossed doog (statistically speaking we should be entitled to an appreciable amount of good luck, we really deserve it)
Anyone has info/experience if there is a usual soft deadline whithin which FDA sends CRL letters or decide to postpone a PDUFA date ? or could it happen until the the last day ?
just to have a rough idea if the more we get close to the pdufa date and the more likely we go for Approved/Not Approved instead of the 2 other possible outcomes above
We are 1 month now from PDUFA date.
Disclaimer: I still express my super-strong preference for the company to announce a major development BEFORE any Rexista update!
Angelo, I already wrote here what I think of this law firms.
Anyway your example says it all.
Just out of curiosity I picked one of their cases: Tesla. the "class period" covers 10th may 2013 to 6th november 2013...and guess what...during that period the stock went from 69 to 151 usd (it went down only in oct from a max of 181 usd).
If you then consider that you are granted to partecipate in the process ONLY if you reported losses over the period.....
Let's wait and see if IPCI silence is due to some negotation going on, for which a no disclosure Agreement in key info is usually binding.
We can say many things about company's management and strategy but the shares behaviuos does show anomalies or peculiar points:
- day after AdComm was lower than 4mln shares traded (we traded much more in Oct 2016 and Feb 2017): consistent therfore with a setback instead of a failure (like in the cases of single product biotechs)
- price went down from 1.50 to below 1.00 through 11 trading days with an average volume lower than 300k shares (value of which is ridicolously low for such a big movement)
- even if we have been in oversold territory there is no sign even of a technical rebound; the price seems to have a target area which HAS to be below 1.00
- for major info about any possible shareholders moves after the AdComm we have to wait at least 45 days following the 26th of July; I would say that between 10-15th of sept we will have all the data flowing via the 13D filings (if any)
- based on what above, we could consider plausible an orchestrated movement, not necessarily by some big players (given the low volume over the period I believe 3 pc - 3 accounts and a good algorithm can accomlish the job)
We are therefore currently blind (nothing new with IPCI).
In conclusion: I am disgusted as well, but I hope company silence is preluding something good, fearing instead of being again disappointed.
All this JMHO
I do not consider a coincidence that the blue dye got center stage..as he wrote here,maybe he could wrote somewhere else, meet, etc....not legal?? That's my point.
Anyway I do agree that IPCI defense was way beyond minimum acceptable levels
Not selling likely until mid 2018
Just don't want to down another 50cents on 200k USD per day if Rexista major setback hit again
Angelo, It was since before the AdComm that I couldn't Lough anymore on this board, thanks to the obsessive guy. By the way we have to remember his name in case some ethics scandal on the drugs approvals and conflicts of interest s should ever come.
I tend to agree with your analysis and Fred's.
What I do strongly hope is that IPCI announce some major move Before any possible outcome on Rexista.
A clarification on First Foundation Advisors holdings
the data showing a 481'774 shares position (1.58% of IPCI) are referred to 30th of June, therefore BEFORE our AdComm débâcle.
Could well be that they now have 0% or 3%, but for sure we don't know, and in light of this timing I find it very unlikely that they were hired for some kind of strategic advisory.
I can surely be wrong in case they have been involved for something related to a partnership, but honestly they don't seem to be a business to business facilitator.
Happy to be wrong, but I believe they are not our hope for a stragic reshape.
JMHO
Tek, I agree that based on current share price Rexista not being approved is already priced in. (less than 30mln mkt cap)
Honestly I do strongly hope that the company will make some kind of move BEFORE any kind of (possible) negative outcome by the FDA; and when I say move I mean something like partnership, a transaction generating cash and the like.
Otherwise I see the price being pushed to unimmaginable low levels, since we already had demonstration about how we can lose 15mln mkt cap (a decline of 0.5$ x 30mln shares) with several days of JUST 300K shares of volume (therefore ridicolously low), thanks to that bunch of nice guys playing the stock.
Let's see if Odidi had (and HAS) a plan B (in case of rexista setbacks) and he is now capable to deliver it with the required strategic timing (which is any day now)
JMHO