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Well SG......you had me fully understanding and in agreement with all you said until:
"With my methods of fib retrace I have no such temptation or dilemma.Matter of fact I may be going long at a point that an indicator seems to scream short.
Its times like this that I wish I was set up to do what pennies is doing with his superb videos and could adequately show you all what I am doing with fib charting.Most of my work is with H4 charts but I can do the same on M5 charts..same principles apply.I can even predict top or bottom areas within a few pips which I could never before do reliably."
Yes, I need a video example!!! LOL!!!! I'm not the sharpest knife in the drawer and I can only cut through so much before my dullness begins to be extremely annoying to myself. I'll reread, and reread again your method of fib trading but I'm really challenged here. LOL Maybe in time I'll be able to "digest" the meat of the method in which you trade. Ugh..
Simplegreen! For those of us who were'nt paying attention......can you post your trix parameters for your cloud setup? I know you are using (3),(5), (7) and (9) period settings but what are you putting in for your signal line parameter?
And what moving average lines are you using on your main chart; 6 and 62?
Also, I can't get my macds to look like yours with the thick verticle green lines. And what "apply" parameters are you using for you macd; close, open, high, median etc?
Finally, is this the latest chart template that you are using to find wave reversals?
TDI hooks! That ought to be your next vid content pennies! I'm also going to spend more hours focusing on the intracacies of the TDI wave versus baseline etc, patterns to try and really get a better handle on the divergence thing.
Coolman.....thank you for your empathy and for basically stating what pennies did about using other indicators of reversal to help confirm wave reversal potential. I knew I couldn't be the only one out there struggling with divergence as THE indicator for predicting reversals. There apparantly is no one single indicator out there. While I didn't bust an account yet over the issue I sure have locked in some big losses. The EJ and GJ big rallies have taken their toll on me over the last couple weeks because I kept using divergence and consolidation for my entry trigger. These long waves can kill you if you're on the wrong side. For once I'd like to be on the right side of them and let them run to my max gain potential. Maybe SG's cloud or something else will help me out there while aiding in nailing down the reversal per divergence setup. Thanks again and best luck to you. I wish you the same improved skill in trading that I'm hoping for, for myself for this 2013 year ahead.
Pennies.....I was half afraid you were going to point to wave counting as the way to identify the true wave reversals. lol Wave counting is such a huge challenge for me only because of those dang extended wave 3's and 5's!!!
Ok, now to get to work trying to add wave counts and whatever other indication of reversal I can to divergence and come up with a plan for trading off the divergence. Maybe SGs cloud on the smaller time frames to help pin down the impending reversal on the larger 1 hour and 4 hour time frame as divergence presents on the larger time frame? Not sure yet.
And I'm thinking that the best way to prevent big losses as I have in the past from trading soley off divergence is to use the previous high and a few pips as the breakout and stop point. Not sure about that though as it'll depend on how many pips loss that would mean from my entry based on that divergence and now wave counts. The 88.6 fib entries will certainly allow the least amount of loss when using the previous high as a stop.
I sure appreciate your reply, and yes, just as I waited until after the holidays to call the appliance repair folks about my oven, for their sake as well as mine, so as not to make work of the festive days, I'm sure your clientele put off calling you in to work on their systems so that they could enjoy their holiday and maybe even let you enjoy yours. lol
Hey Pennies....... I haven't seen you on skype for a couple days. I'm using your "pennies39601" contact. Are you hanging out at another contact address? Not to appear to be stalking you, but I have a really huge issue that needs to be addressed.
So, I'll just throw my questions at you here on green board since I can't find you on skype. Now I've seen all your vids to date and they are all immense and great help. Keep 'em coming! And I'm really, really looking forward to your TDI vids. They ought to be the greatest help of all as I have so much trouble trading off the TDI other than observing divergence and even it's kicking my butt lately. I get hung up when there is divergence with a small pullback in price and then a new set of fast/slow waves show up in price versus TDI wave action and it creates even more divergence with yet only another price move against me with more fast/slow line waves presenting further divergence. Hope that made sense. If not, maybe my charts below will. I'm using the G/U weekly chart below as a first example. That's followed by the G/J 4 hour chart example. I know we're trading off the lower time frames but I find this same divergence failure or misinterpretation on my part presenting on all time frames of all pairs. Ok....
Notice on my GU weekly, that #1 divergence had a long and deep resulting price reversal. Then see that #2 divergence pullback was relatively shallow and though #3 was a deeper reversal/pullback, while only #4 divergence lines proved out a really good reversal. Now you'll also notice that divergence presents itself by combining the divergence setups #2, #3, and #4 together in one big divergence wave line #5 which resulted in a huge reversal. On a weekly chart like that, there is good gains to be made on all these divergence setups, HOWEVER if you applied the same relatively shallow pullbacks from #2, and #3 divergence lines on say a 15 minute chart or even an hour chart, the gains would be small or nonexistant if you didn't trade it just right; nevermind the big 100 pip or more reversal. Moving right along here...
You'll notice that the yen pairs are showing just this type of multiple wave divergences on the 4 hour charts as you can see in my G/J chart below. Notice that divergence setup #1 was a deep reversal, though there was a kind of H&S pattern to the price waves on that divergence line. And #2 divergence setup offered no reversal but a huge price bolt topside followed by divergence #3 which also offered no price reversal at all but rather another dramatic price move up. Now divergence setup #4 might be it and we might see a really huge price reversal or maybe not. So how in the heck can you tell whether the divergence setup is going to play out with a reversal or not. So what can we look for to know whether the divergence is going to play out or not. We've been trapped in these yen pairs now for a couple weeks with no reversal resulting yet from the divergence setups. What is the key that I am missing to being able to trade off these divergences accurately???? If you can answer my questions in a vid, that'd be really helpful. A current chart would be best and preferably one of these yen pairs, if not G/J itself. Maybe I'm not alone in my frustration here trading off of TDI/price action divergence.
Thanks SG, I feel the same. And it's good to see all the goodwill and charity exhibited all year through good information and safety from harm efforts made on your behalf and others on your board as we all trek through the forex forest wherein so many dangers lay. Happy holidays to all us forex forest pip foragers. lol
I closed out with you with that bearish candle forming on the 15 minute chart and a previous recent high having been hit. I'm wondering if we won't see a pullback allowing for another reentry and see your original TP hit. I may not be at home to play it but I'd like to if I am.
Hey pennies, your 4 hour CAD/CHF TDI setup appears to be playing out here. Where would you expect the price to pullback to from here, or when would you expect to see a pullback begin before your TP target is met; considering current price action? I'm assuming we've see a low set already based on that TDI pattern?
Yep.....that it is. And I'll be joining you in the 15 posts a day here when my subscription ends in another month.
I don't know if you noticed, but today was a fresh new bearish daily candle for AJ and the TDI fast line has crossed down bearishly over the slow line. May only be yet another shallow pullback on the daily that'll last a couple days before the bullish trend continues on the daily channel up but I wanted to make you aware of that bearish daily candle. Regardless, good luck on your AJ long.
Well I'd better not add here to my short positions and there's no point in sitting around waiting for the next opportunity that may be hours away so I'm outta here for a bit.
lol......I personally don't mind good hearted information and truth seeking disagreement but have no use for ego driven postings by arrogant asses and fellow humans who just aren't quality folk if you get my point. Ihub is a cesspool by and large of cons and low-life's imo and maybe a reflection of the common man as sad as that may be when considering the prison population numbers and amount of internet scam artists out there. I've stayed on this board because SG and pennies, and others that have been here a while, are uncommon in their approach to others and the goodwill passing of information. I like it here. Sadly, I just can't stand the website and refuse to give them another dime of my hard earned.
Are you arguing with me whatever? lol....
I too have given up my subscription to ihub. I can't stand 'em because of all the add-ons and crap that they allow slowing the refresh and posting time to a crawl on my computer. They'll let anyone willing to pay for the plug to add to the redirect add-ons and pop-ups too. I love the board; hate the website! It'd be nice to see pennies and SG get together and take this board to some other website that's clean and simple while allowing for pic posts and private messaging if there is such a thing.
Thanks much pileit1! It should be second nature to me but I still struggle with the time thing on my MT4 charts. Not sure exactly why either. lol
So I see a shooting star on the EUR/JPY daily, albeit a small one, followed by what is currently a doji candle. Little in the way of bearish divergence on this latest couple of waves up on the 3rd goodman wave up which is longer than the 1st goodman wave up by 175 pips or so. No guarantees of course, but since I'm stuck short on E/J right now, I'm hoping to see pennies 110 price pullback or better. Just out of curiosity, can anyone tell me how many hours until the new daily candle strikes? I don't want the time, I want the number of hours thanks to how far off all my MT4 charting current times are from New York and all other primary market set locations.
I am in absolute agreement with everything that everyone has had to say so far about the subject of trend trading versus trend reversal trading. The one thing I might add is that since pennies sees those TDI reversal setups as they are in process, we now have a better feel for when we do need to lighten up or exit any trend trades as we wait for the new trend to present or the old to return. And there are pips to be made during those TDI H&S pattern reversal setups. Nothing's absolute in trading, however the trend presents itself everyday and sometimes presents unbroken for days and weeks at a time with only 10 to 20 pip pullbacks in a given day, if that even, where the trend reversals don't always present each day in any given currency pair. As soon as I get out from under my EUR/JPY positions, I hope to begin trading with the trend instead of against it throughout each day.
It's ok though 'cause he's been named "person of the year" by Time magazine.
I hate to see it SG.....it's adding to my concern that I'm casting my line in a hard wind with my E/J short and I'm about to get hooked and carried away myself. The market is about to reel me in and have me for lunch.
Sure isn't any definitive answer to the question of future price prediction is there SG? I do like the doji on both chart and the bearish candle following but there's no confirmation of a reversal just with the two candles.
What makes me uncomfortable being short overall on EJ is the monthly chart with the hidden bullish divergence and the bullish break of a bullish wedge pattern. There can still be a pullback based on the smaller time frame charts, but I wouldnt be a bear on the weekly or monthly longer term swing trades. Here's a chart showing what I'm seeing below.
Well that's not very promising for my position. Thank you for that. If you see any real indication of it reversing please share?
Thanks SG.....I'm really sweating EJ, but maybe unecessarily.
Hey SG, how's about tossing us out a TOS chart like this of EUR/JPY? That's the one I'm stuck in right now. lol
I for one hear what you are saying! eom
I see.....thank you for mentioning that piece of the puzzle for me; the unbroken active low I mean.
If we've indeed topped out here, would you expect an 88.6 fib hit before EJ really rolls over?
Appreciate your input git.......and yes, you are right; a lot can happen within each monthly candle, and that can work in your favor or against it. I'd feel a lot more comfortable about AJ had the daily trendline not already been compromised. Not by much but it can turn into much with much losses if assumption is that it will still reverse. If G/J does retrace then I'd expect A/J to follow suit but I don't know...
Hey git......how would you size up A/J here based on the weekly and monthly charts? I noticed a monthly goodman potential that makes me nervous for holding shorts based on the weekly candle top trendlines we've been shorting against, even though I already took a whipping on them overnight and have reentered another small entry here a few pips ago. See my chart below and tell me if you see anything to assuage my fears of a 3,200 to 3,500 3rd goodman wave up on the monthly?
I don't have anything to spend git! I could go on a credit shopping spree if the banks were giving out loans like they did 15 years ago. lol
Figures I'd finally start to see some profit on my AJ short the day the world ended. lol
Check your pm box jav. I hope I've answered your question in case pennies isn't around for a while yet this morning.
Check your pm box jav. I hope I've answered your question in case pennies isn't around for a while yet this morning.
Yes, you do pennies......you learn how to have patience, like dealing with me and all my stupid questions! lol
Well thanks SG. I've been lurking for a month now as I'm trying to get comfortable again with trading demo after walking away from trading the last time as I kept getting margined out from impulsive trades and lot sizes that were too large. I wasn't happy with my gains because I was trading too small an account for the margin risk I needed so I stepped up my risk and ended up with inconsistant gains and inadequate gains. If I go live again it'll be with $5k minimum and I'll keep my risk low enough to survive the bad trades allowing me to add as needed but still make enough on gains to make it worth my time. That's the plan anyway.
I'm sticking with Alpari for demo unless things change btw.
Again pileit1, I have found Alpari to be dependable and stable, vice prone to lockups and shutdowns which was the very problem I was having with FXCM demo platform. Maybe FXCM has fixed their problems, since I used them a year ago or so, but I'd be surprised. Another option is to trade Oanda demo, but then you don't have all the MT4 indi options, which is why I've stuck with Alpari. Glty on it, whatever you do.
I'm coming out of lurking in the background to post a bit here and there as I trade demo trying to prepare to return to trading live again once my profits are consistant enough to justify the risk of trading with real money again.
I wanted to chime in and say that I had the same frequent marketing phone calls from Alpari on my previous demo account and just ignored them but found them extremely irritating. Since I've reopened a new demo account after closing the one wherein I was recieving all those phone calls, I have yet to get a phone call from them on this new demo account and it's been open now for around a month.
I too have found the platform to be extremely reliable both now and before, but I'd never trade through Alpari with real money because they only give option to trade lot sizes of .01, .02, .03, .04 and .05 before jumping all the way up to 1.0 lot sizes, forcing the retail trader to take multiple entrys to get the actual lot amount size he or she needs or getting them in too deep with the 1.o for live accounts of less then $10,000. That's one reason I would never send them my money. The harrassing phone calls were another. Maybe they've given up on me, and aren't going to call again but I'll see.
Hope that helps pileit.
Right pennies......well I'm putting every extra dime I earn into the stock market so I can really make an outstanding retirement for myself 20 years down the road when the stock market is at 117,000 from its current level of 13,237. Talk about predatory financing. Always the same game. Load the pockets of the bankers and corporate ceo's at the expense of the masses of tax paying middle incomers. How could the sheep have been so woolish to buy into that b.s.?
Oh and since we've put the burden of debt on the taxpayers shoulders already with the previous astronomical bailout of the bankers and ceo's, where's the money going to come from the next time all these bubbles really begin to pop, even if we're not there yet for a year or two or six months or whatever?
Oh and since I don't do my banking or trading on the same computer I use to surf the web on, I'm hoping that I'm still not open to damage from the hacking efforts by the army of degenerates that love stealing from others.
Having lost my old demo account to the drive wipe, I'm starting out with a new losing short here on AU. lol I'd be under by 300 pips on my initial short if I were still trading off my old demo account. Even so, I'd still be fine considering low margin risk, but I'd not be ahead for the week that's for sure. It'd be the first week I didn't average 3% gains in a month and a half.
I'll leave UCAD to you since I'm already in deep enough with my current exposure on AU.
I'm still short on AU pennies, but I'm not adding unless we see 1.07 area allowing a good potential reversal spot at that descending trendline off daily and weekly candle tops.
That's my concern git......I had to reload windows over the weekend because ihub was getting to be too slow to refresh. And it was slow going from the ihub page to the chart page. Also, I kept getting a blocked pop-up toolbar at the top of the page every time I posted or moved from one post to another. I noticed this morning that ihub posted a message at top of page that they were having difficulties. Now having wiped my drive and reloaded windows, the site is still somewhat sluggish though I don't have that irritating pop-up occuring. I think that because ihub is a financial blog site, I think it's more likely than not a target of hackers like a beacon for shit eating flies.
Still just wondering if any or all others that frequent this board have noticed if they are being logged on securely initially and then made unsecure as soon as they have been logged on.