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Trolly - The Veolia news might even be considered bigger, but the stock has been out of favor of late. I added a few K more shares today at .85. It never hit my .75 ;)
Yep - I would expect a pretty big pop tomorrow on this news. This stock has been beaten down far enough. The technology is still sound and it could gain traction very quickly on any news like this.
Orbite (ORT.to, EORBF) Announces Offtake Agreement with Glencore
MONTREAL, QUEBEC--(Marketwired - Jun 17, 2013) - Orbite Aluminae Inc. (ORT.TO)(EORBF) ("Orbite" or the "Corporation") today announced an offtake agreement with Glencore International AG ("Glencore"), a subsidiary of Glencore Xstrata plc ("Glencore Xstrata"), for the purchase of smelter-grade alumina from the Corporation's proposed smelter-grade alumina (SGA) plant in Quebec, Canada.
The Agreement provides for the purchase by Glencore of 100% of the smelter-grade alumina, from the Corporation's first proposed SGA plant in Quebec, Canada, for an initial term of 10 years from the commencement of commercial production. The Agreement also foresees that Orbite and Glencore will undertake negotiations relating to Glencore's potential financial participation in the ownership and operation of the Corporation's proposed SGA plant in Quebec. The Parties have not set any timetable for the commencement or conclusion of these negotiations. All other terms of the Agreement, including pricing and renewal rights, are confidential for competitive reasons.
"We are definitely pleased to be executing our first offtake agreement with a company of Glencore's stature and experience in the alumina industry," said Glenn Kelly, Orbite's Chief Operating Officer.
Glencore Xstrata is one of the world's largest global diversified natural resource companies with pro forma revenues of $236 billion in 2012. Glencore Xstrata's industrial and marketing activities are supported by a global network of more than 90 offices located in more than 50 countries, with diversified operations comprised of more than 150 mining and metallurgical sites, offshore oil production assets, farms and agricultural facilities.
The Metals and Minerals division is focused on alumina/aluminum, copper, nickel, zinc/lead, alloys, and iron ore, with interests in both controlled and non-controlled industrial assets that include mining, smelting, refining and warehousing operations.
INA.v, IONAF - Iona Energy
Let me try this again. Awhile back, I spotted Crucible posting about this on IV. When he mentioned it was a "Double-fisted table pounder" I had to take a look.
I'm sure you are all familar with the success we've had with Mart Resources..and this looks like it has the potential to repeat similar success.
----snipped from Crucible on IV----
"Why am I confident? Let me count the ways:
1) Uber cheap on all metrics. Trading ~33% of ~$650MM 2P NPV10 after tax reserves. Trading ~0.5x 2013 cf assuming conservative oil/gas prices (no, not a typo). Current EV is roughly $180MM (counting all of their currently unused $130MM debt facility, offset by ~$100+MM cash). EV/Flowing 2013 ave production (assuming ~15K boed) is uber cheap ~$12K. Remember, they get Brent pricing and enjoy ~$10mcf gas prices, so buying high value barrels at ~$12K per flowing in politically safe area is nearly unheard of.
2) Big near-term production ramp that is self-funded from current ~$100+MM cash and untapped $130MM debt facility (hugely important in this market). Ramping from current ~600 boed natgas to ~8K boed (mostly oil) early next year when they bring on their 100% WI past-producing Kells field (formerly named Staffa). Kells was shut-in in the early '90s when oil was ~$15 bbl and they had pipeline clogging issues that were too expensive to justify repairing at the time. The field was producing ~6K boed (mostly oil) at the time of shut-in (down from 10K boed IP a few years earlier). As such, Kells is a low risk development as they already have good understanding of the reservoir characteristics. Once Kells is online, INA is self-funding from existing cash low so no worries about new debt/dilution that plagues the junior sector.
Iona will then ramp to ~15K boed (probably higher) when Orlando comes online in Q3 2013. Both Kells and Orlando will use the same export route via nearby existing platform that has excess capacity, so will have synergies. The host platform operator wants the new natgas production to reduce their operating costs (platform currently uses much more expensive imported diesel for power). Also the two fields will extend platform life, so very attractive for the host platform owner - as such, I expect good cooperation to ensure modifications go as smoothly as possible. Modification work for both field's developments will be done when the host platform goes down for annual maintenance this summer/early fall.
2013 cash flow per bbl should be around $50 (assuming conservative prices) = ~$0.90 share assuming ~15K boed ave. Compare to current $0.47 price.
Iona also has ownership in the currently producing Trent and Tyne natgas fields that could add 3-5K boed in the next year if the upcoming appraisal wells are successful. First sidetrack is to be drilled in July. Again, fully funded (but success not included in my assumptions - management is optimistic and thinks ~80% chance of success is likely)
3) Large reserves - with news that they just bought out their partners at Orlando, they now have 100% of the field and now have 3 sizable fields going in to development. Reserves (including West Wick) should be around ~33MM 2P with 2P NPV10 after tax around ~$650-$700MM ($1.85-$2.00 sh fd). Updated numbers including West Wick should be announced in near future.
4) Big midterm production ramp to over 20K boed in next few years - all self-funded. Iona will be one of the fastest growing plays in the NS and almost nobody knows it - yet. Hence the opportunity to make a handsome, relatively low risk return.
Cash flow should be around $250-$300MM in 2013 depending on first production from Orlando (vs current EV of only $180MM) and should exit at higher annualized rates as Orlando will come on in Q3/Q4. In 2014, West Wick should add another ~6K, getting them to ~20K boed and ~$400MM cf annualized.
5) For those who put great stock into management, Iona has a well-proven team. INA founders also started Ithaca, so know how to drive similar NS projects into development even during very rough times (much more difficult than current conditions).
Add it all up and I think Iona is the most attractive value/risk-reward of any play I've seen since the panic in 2008. Think there is relatively safe multi-bagger in the offing at current prices. I think conservative/realistic price target is ~$1.50+ range. Casimir has a $2.40 target (and will surely be increasing their target on the back of Iona's news that they are buying 100% ownership in Orlando). If markets wake up and INA executes well, would not be surprised to see $2+ share price in next 18 months. For those with modest patience, INA should be a nice winner.
Casimir's recent report is more optimistic and gives more details (only a few days old but doesn't reflect just-announced 100% ownership of Orlando - as such, 2013 production/cash flow numbers are only based on ~10K boed ave - will be substantially higher with 100% ownership vs previous ~35%)
There is a INA board for those who are interested. "
Bob: TRGD,
Do you still own this? I picked up 20K or so in the .035-.04 area and haven't sold any yet...I traded a few of them but just wondering if you think they have any upside here. They really haven't rebounded as much as some of the other gold stocks.
Bmr
cl001 RE: SMC
Seems to be not a lot of happy campers on the stockhouse board. When do you think financing may be done? That is probably the key to getting this thing close to $1 again. Started adding today...
Bmr
NRDS:
Supposedly they already have been granted the permit and i'm sure it will be made public assuming nothing material comes out of the hearing.
Researcher, RE: GOOG
This happened to GOOG a year and a half ago when they reported a day before expirations...HUGE gains. Me and my buddy were thinking about looking at all the companies that report a day before options expiration and taking a gamble (both ways) on the ones that potentially move the most. I am a little discouraged by your results and it pains me to look at what "could have been". But, alas, that's the stock market for you. If you want to be included on the research let me know.
Matt
I have a tough time thinking the bottom is in; the bottom is usually in when everyone admits defeat, not is calling for it...
KIK: PRLS after hours...
Saw a couple trades go in at 2.13 for 300 shares each, probably doesn't mean much but nonetheless
KIK, PRLS:
Weren't they supposed to report by now? How did you arrive at your last estimate?
TIA
Researcher: CRM
Be careful with this one...it has proven me wrong on a number of different occasions. The valuation on this has always been out of whack, but they are still growing revenues pretty rapidly.
I picked up 2500 more at 1.91 this morning, yup the golden cross is usually a very good thing. That coupled with the good quarter that KIK posted about and hopefully the stock has some good days ahead..
RE: PRLS (KIK)
Just noticed this chart today..see anything interesting?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PRLS&p=D&st=2003-01-01&id=p01541529433&a=132267518&listNum=2&listNum=2
Got more CNOA at 1.15....
Thanks KIK for that one..like the looks of it.
Link to Federal Reserve Statement?
Question for you guys:
Someone here awhile back posted a link to the federal reserve statement information that if you keep hitting refresh on your browser you could find out what the rate cut was pretty quick, allowing you to anticipate market moves before anyone else...do any of you remember what it was?
Tks,
Bmr
Up about 10% so far this year in parents account due to GLD and SKF exposure, and a little bit in my account do to swing trading the likes of CFC and others, and of course long GLD.
Pick a Housing Bottom Date-
I'm throwing out a challenge to all VMCers. Pick a month/year which you believe to be the bottom of the housing market (based on a culmination of data such as case/shiller, nahb indexes, etc..)
I'm going to say 02/09
Bobwins: Thanks for pounding the table on CXPO...you are turning December into one of my good trading months. Appreciate all the hard work you do for the boards..
Took some off the table right before 16, more in the 17s..holding the rest.
Rogue,
All I've been hearing lately that all the bad news is priced in and it's way overblown, but the fact is most people don't know how much toxicity is left and how far it will reach. My guess is that 2008 is going to be the year of reckoning.
ari:5000-
I think it pretty much guarantees that you will never see any ARMs in the future. I also question how many people this will impact...and what positive effect it will have on the sector.
Countrywide Speculation:
Did anyone read this? Any opinions?
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_C/threadview?m=tm&bn=3223&tid=1...
Yeah, I mean their production is a ways out, isn't it? I'm not really interested in holding it right now, but was just ironic how I mention it to a buddy this morning and then BAM, we have liftoff..
PAX - DANG! I was looking at it in the low .60s this morning and then all of a sudden it took off without me. CRAZY!
SRU up another 22% today, high volume, insane run the past 2 days...
SRU - Starfield
Does anyone know about this one? Huge volume today to the upside...I caught it on kitcometals earlier..
They are probably just creating the float and more shares are getting released into the market
Nice volume today...
CL001: BMC and HBM
Great minds think alike? Those are my two largest holdings right now as well..
www.pinksheets.com
Purchased BMC Today
Had to call Ameritrade to get it done, got my fill at a 2.06xx USD price, not too bad...bout 5000 shares.
BMC - Get on the Pinkies!
I've been following this stock for several months and I can't believe they don't have a pinkie. How do you guys arrange the broker trade? I'm with Ameritrade and would like to add some..
Dying Bee Population - Crop Implications?
Have any of you read about this?
http://www.fireandknowledge.org/archives/2007/04/16/are-cell-phones-bee-killers/
cl001 - HBM
I'm tempted to make this my largest position. It has been lagging for quite some time now and I don't think it's getting the valuation it deserves. What is the P/E going forward now, 3.5? With zinc prices surely to go up at some point, I look for this to be back in the mid 20s and possibly 30 by the end of the summer.
Valuation-
As Joe has said, this company will get very interested once financials are out and the investing community becomes aware of it.
If gold juniors usually trade at a P/E of 30 and DGRI can do .10-.15 in fiscal EPS, that's a price range of $3-4.50 in PPS. (fair value)
I seem to remember hearing that DGRI is profitable at $600/gold or higher...so anything above that is pure gravy.
Are the warrants most compelling?
Do you have details?
Crowflight PP, Warrants?
Does anyone know about the private placement/warrants situation on Crowflight? I was reading something about it on Stockhouse and was wondering if it would be compelling to be involved in them.
Thanks, Joe...
I took place in the private placement for this company and I hope to hear good things from them in the coming months, years. My friends live nearby, so it'll be an interesting story to watch unfold.
ORV.to - Wow...
As luck would have it, this one showed up on one of my screens today. How bad is Bolivia? This thing is trading at a significant discount...