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GV - Forgot to add short shares yesterday - augh. Great trade!
SNFCA - actually hit my limit order of 6.50 a few minutes ago. Will add again if it somehow manages to go down to 6.01.
ESCC - Had a limit order at 1.60 that didn't get filled. Good luck to all of you who are in this. KiK - thanks for the DD.
AUXO - Sell order hit this morning. Will look to buy back if it gets back into the 4s.
HLTH - out at 1.70. Small loss.
AUXO - Have been tempted to sell this a couple times, but still holding. I was going to sell at 5.50 the other day but didn't hit my order. Would have liked to have bought back at 4 :)
Stock Volume Screening - Have any of you found a really good way to screen or get alerted on stock volume increases? Many times you see a volume spike with a stock before it goes on a really pronounced run. I have messed around with a few online services but none have really had the effect i'm after.
HLTH - Added first batch at 1.895.
SPWH - This thing has been dropping like a rock for awhile. I'm tempted to add more also but this one just doesn't feel right.
Nice trade - wish I could have gotten in with you. Maybe time to look at IB.
researcher59- I'm not familiar with IB - do you like trading with them? I've been on TDA for a lot of years now but occasionally get frustrated when I can't short a stock.
GRVY - any short shares available for anyone?
INBP - Up 125% on this one right now. Thanks very much for all those who contributed to bringing this to the board.
Mine are.
ESOA: Added some at 1.46. I've been watching this one for awhile now. Will continue to add on any additional weakness.
STRI (KIK) - Hey Knowledge - do you still own this one? Trying to decide what i'm going to do with it.
I've accumulated STRI over the past couple of weeks. This thing has been dumpster diving for quite some time. Hopefully people start taking notice of the value.
STRI - KIK, are you still holding this? I picked up some awhile back but the chart is U-G-L-Y. Any comments appreciated.
Thanks!
CAD vs USD when trading Canadian. I just wanted to get a sense of how you guys are trading energy stocks like Mart, Iona, etc.. Are you buying the OTC such as MAUXF and IONAF or are you using an account that trades Canadian stocks directly? I'm not that bullish on the Canadian Dollar, but maybe it will be neutral for the next little bit. It stinks getting hit from two angles.
This is one of the biggest one day volume drops i've seen with Mart. It will be interesting to see what happens the next couple days w/ regard to news. If there is no news, it's obvious that some bigger players are out and a dividend cut or suspension may be forthcoming. Otherwise, there is a shutin on the pipeline or bad well results. Still, I don't think that warrants as much of a drop as we've seen already, but nobody ever said investing was rational.
Lots of volume today - could be a news leak but maybe it's just people reacting to the Shell news of getting out of the Eastern delta area. Maybe some feel that the dividend is threatened now...who knows.
I agree on MMT.v - lots of worries/fears priced into it at this point. Pretty good bounce off of the .90s level. I would expect that to hold. Once the Shell pipeline gets confirmed and they can add some production, I would expect this thing to stay in the low 1s. I picked more up this morning.
Look at TGA - I think the same thing could happen here but it will take some time to get the investors back in it. A lot of them are probably frustrated about the stolen oil, which already drove some majors out of Nigeria.
Iona will be .70 in no time. Seriously one of the most undervalued plays out there. Huntington even has more upside...
Iona is my biggest holding, Mart is second. I did purchase more shares in Mart today, though. I was seriously contemplating putting the majority of my aggressive acount in Iona a couple weeks ago.
The dumbest decision I made this week was selling my Ithaca at 2 bucks before the runup.
Maybe, maybe not. I just added a good number of shares at 1.23 and am still looking for more.
Here's what Chen said today:
(9/17/13) "Mart Resources Inc. actually is going to make over $100M in free cash flow per year when the Agip pipeline is up, despite the theft and all the difficulties in Nigeria. The company will likely triple or quadruple its free cash flow next year when the new pipeline is up. By that time its free cash flow will be close to its current market cap."
I like Orbite at these levels. This became my smallest position after it got trashed in recent months. However, the Veolia news and the recent Glencore news should bring stability to this thing and tell investors that there is real potential here, not just a pipe dream.
Trolly - The Veolia news might even be considered bigger, but the stock has been out of favor of late. I added a few K more shares today at .85. It never hit my .75 ;)
Yep - I would expect a pretty big pop tomorrow on this news. This stock has been beaten down far enough. The technology is still sound and it could gain traction very quickly on any news like this.
Orbite (ORT.to, EORBF) Announces Offtake Agreement with Glencore
MONTREAL, QUEBEC--(Marketwired - Jun 17, 2013) - Orbite Aluminae Inc. (ORT.TO)(EORBF) ("Orbite" or the "Corporation") today announced an offtake agreement with Glencore International AG ("Glencore"), a subsidiary of Glencore Xstrata plc ("Glencore Xstrata"), for the purchase of smelter-grade alumina from the Corporation's proposed smelter-grade alumina (SGA) plant in Quebec, Canada.
The Agreement provides for the purchase by Glencore of 100% of the smelter-grade alumina, from the Corporation's first proposed SGA plant in Quebec, Canada, for an initial term of 10 years from the commencement of commercial production. The Agreement also foresees that Orbite and Glencore will undertake negotiations relating to Glencore's potential financial participation in the ownership and operation of the Corporation's proposed SGA plant in Quebec. The Parties have not set any timetable for the commencement or conclusion of these negotiations. All other terms of the Agreement, including pricing and renewal rights, are confidential for competitive reasons.
"We are definitely pleased to be executing our first offtake agreement with a company of Glencore's stature and experience in the alumina industry," said Glenn Kelly, Orbite's Chief Operating Officer.
Glencore Xstrata is one of the world's largest global diversified natural resource companies with pro forma revenues of $236 billion in 2012. Glencore Xstrata's industrial and marketing activities are supported by a global network of more than 90 offices located in more than 50 countries, with diversified operations comprised of more than 150 mining and metallurgical sites, offshore oil production assets, farms and agricultural facilities.
The Metals and Minerals division is focused on alumina/aluminum, copper, nickel, zinc/lead, alloys, and iron ore, with interests in both controlled and non-controlled industrial assets that include mining, smelting, refining and warehousing operations.
INA.v, IONAF - Iona Energy
Let me try this again. Awhile back, I spotted Crucible posting about this on IV. When he mentioned it was a "Double-fisted table pounder" I had to take a look.
I'm sure you are all familar with the success we've had with Mart Resources..and this looks like it has the potential to repeat similar success.
----snipped from Crucible on IV----
"Why am I confident? Let me count the ways:
1) Uber cheap on all metrics. Trading ~33% of ~$650MM 2P NPV10 after tax reserves. Trading ~0.5x 2013 cf assuming conservative oil/gas prices (no, not a typo). Current EV is roughly $180MM (counting all of their currently unused $130MM debt facility, offset by ~$100+MM cash). EV/Flowing 2013 ave production (assuming ~15K boed) is uber cheap ~$12K. Remember, they get Brent pricing and enjoy ~$10mcf gas prices, so buying high value barrels at ~$12K per flowing in politically safe area is nearly unheard of.
2) Big near-term production ramp that is self-funded from current ~$100+MM cash and untapped $130MM debt facility (hugely important in this market). Ramping from current ~600 boed natgas to ~8K boed (mostly oil) early next year when they bring on their 100% WI past-producing Kells field (formerly named Staffa). Kells was shut-in in the early '90s when oil was ~$15 bbl and they had pipeline clogging issues that were too expensive to justify repairing at the time. The field was producing ~6K boed (mostly oil) at the time of shut-in (down from 10K boed IP a few years earlier). As such, Kells is a low risk development as they already have good understanding of the reservoir characteristics. Once Kells is online, INA is self-funding from existing cash low so no worries about new debt/dilution that plagues the junior sector.
Iona will then ramp to ~15K boed (probably higher) when Orlando comes online in Q3 2013. Both Kells and Orlando will use the same export route via nearby existing platform that has excess capacity, so will have synergies. The host platform operator wants the new natgas production to reduce their operating costs (platform currently uses much more expensive imported diesel for power). Also the two fields will extend platform life, so very attractive for the host platform owner - as such, I expect good cooperation to ensure modifications go as smoothly as possible. Modification work for both field's developments will be done when the host platform goes down for annual maintenance this summer/early fall.
2013 cash flow per bbl should be around $50 (assuming conservative prices) = ~$0.90 share assuming ~15K boed ave. Compare to current $0.47 price.
Iona also has ownership in the currently producing Trent and Tyne natgas fields that could add 3-5K boed in the next year if the upcoming appraisal wells are successful. First sidetrack is to be drilled in July. Again, fully funded (but success not included in my assumptions - management is optimistic and thinks ~80% chance of success is likely)
3) Large reserves - with news that they just bought out their partners at Orlando, they now have 100% of the field and now have 3 sizable fields going in to development. Reserves (including West Wick) should be around ~33MM 2P with 2P NPV10 after tax around ~$650-$700MM ($1.85-$2.00 sh fd). Updated numbers including West Wick should be announced in near future.
4) Big midterm production ramp to over 20K boed in next few years - all self-funded. Iona will be one of the fastest growing plays in the NS and almost nobody knows it - yet. Hence the opportunity to make a handsome, relatively low risk return.
Cash flow should be around $250-$300MM in 2013 depending on first production from Orlando (vs current EV of only $180MM) and should exit at higher annualized rates as Orlando will come on in Q3/Q4. In 2014, West Wick should add another ~6K, getting them to ~20K boed and ~$400MM cf annualized.
5) For those who put great stock into management, Iona has a well-proven team. INA founders also started Ithaca, so know how to drive similar NS projects into development even during very rough times (much more difficult than current conditions).
Add it all up and I think Iona is the most attractive value/risk-reward of any play I've seen since the panic in 2008. Think there is relatively safe multi-bagger in the offing at current prices. I think conservative/realistic price target is ~$1.50+ range. Casimir has a $2.40 target (and will surely be increasing their target on the back of Iona's news that they are buying 100% ownership in Orlando). If markets wake up and INA executes well, would not be surprised to see $2+ share price in next 18 months. For those with modest patience, INA should be a nice winner.
Casimir's recent report is more optimistic and gives more details (only a few days old but doesn't reflect just-announced 100% ownership of Orlando - as such, 2013 production/cash flow numbers are only based on ~10K boed ave - will be substantially higher with 100% ownership vs previous ~35%)
There is a INA board for those who are interested. "
Bob: TRGD,
Do you still own this? I picked up 20K or so in the .035-.04 area and haven't sold any yet...I traded a few of them but just wondering if you think they have any upside here. They really haven't rebounded as much as some of the other gold stocks.
Bmr
cl001 RE: SMC
Seems to be not a lot of happy campers on the stockhouse board. When do you think financing may be done? That is probably the key to getting this thing close to $1 again. Started adding today...
Bmr
NRDS:
Supposedly they already have been granted the permit and i'm sure it will be made public assuming nothing material comes out of the hearing.
Researcher, RE: GOOG
This happened to GOOG a year and a half ago when they reported a day before expirations...HUGE gains. Me and my buddy were thinking about looking at all the companies that report a day before options expiration and taking a gamble (both ways) on the ones that potentially move the most. I am a little discouraged by your results and it pains me to look at what "could have been". But, alas, that's the stock market for you. If you want to be included on the research let me know.
Matt
I have a tough time thinking the bottom is in; the bottom is usually in when everyone admits defeat, not is calling for it...
KIK: PRLS after hours...
Saw a couple trades go in at 2.13 for 300 shares each, probably doesn't mean much but nonetheless
KIK, PRLS:
Weren't they supposed to report by now? How did you arrive at your last estimate?
TIA
Researcher: CRM
Be careful with this one...it has proven me wrong on a number of different occasions. The valuation on this has always been out of whack, but they are still growing revenues pretty rapidly.
I picked up 2500 more at 1.91 this morning, yup the golden cross is usually a very good thing. That coupled with the good quarter that KIK posted about and hopefully the stock has some good days ahead..
RE: PRLS (KIK)
Just noticed this chart today..see anything interesting?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PRLS&p=D&st=2003-01-01&id=p01541529433&a=132267518&listNum=2&listNum=2