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That employees want stock in the company they work for... why yes... that does demonstrate significant confidence in the future performance of the company.
excellent post... GW does exactly what the company says it does... once the market understands this... market sentiment will change abruptly... right now we continue to get qualifiers in articles like this... such as "as long as the product does what the company claims"... that will change soon... microsoft already knows... but they aren't telling just yet as they are protecting a competitive advantage in the moment... the fact that microsoft turned to GW for this purpose should tell the market all it needs to know... the tipping point is near... jmo... glta...
Interesting conversation. Thanks for bringing this to our attention. We are nearing a tipping point.... jmo... glta...
Wrote in a hurry. Didn't proof. Good catch.
Ok. That was a mistake. It should have been Novaglass was created a year ago. My bad. Glassware was created before that...
Novaglass utilizes glassware 2.0
It is fun to see Novaglass re-emerge in our collective consciousness on the ihub board... and it suggests pattern and timeline regarding the creation, integration and monetization of product... glassware was created a year ago through a cooperative effort of novarad and s3d... it is not s3d's product per se (basf segment of s3d's business)... novaglass undoubtedly contributed to that first 13 mil in the company's revenue, but we don't know how much... in fact we know very little about it, have heard very little about it... and it is easy in the silence to imagine that it was something of a bust... but clearly it is not... there are a dozen or more such revenue streams being developed right now through s3d... most larger than this one... some we know about, some we guess at, and likely some we are totally unaware of... novaglass was among the first... it demonstrates that it takes time to gain traction in the market place... we are currently in the 6th quarter of monetization for glassware... waiting on financials from the 5th quarter... Nutanix reached a 2 billion valuation in its 11th quarter of monetization... we are still very, very early in this process... but the wheel is about to turn... after more than six months of market pessimism regarding s3d... market sentiment is about to change... it will turn to euphoria by the eoy... jmo... glta...
"The future is stupid bright."
yep... that should be our ihub theme... and it is only for those of us who are stupid enough to hang on through these absurd times... stubborn as a mule, stupid like a fox... ubol...
excellent... what that quote highlights is the increased efficiencies that glassware creates... this is one of the least understood aspects of glassware... it creates profound efficiency advantages... jmo... glta...
Nice catch. I enlarged the image and there it is... Dell... and yet a deal between S3D and Dell has never been announced...
There is so much more going on with S3D than first meets the eye with a casual glance... wonder what's going on with Ericsson these days? wonder what Promark is doing in the government vertical? Do you know what Promark did for Nutanix in the hyperconverged market? There are going to be quite a few moments like this one where upon closer review there is even more going on than at first sight... jmo... glta...
"Novaglass the first virtualized healthcare platform."
Thanks for sharing. Love it. Glassware has barely begun having started only it's sixth quarter of monetization on 4/1. Novarad was among the first to validate GW in a specific commercial use in a specific vertical. Only recently has glassware also become scalable. Soon enough it will also be ubiquitous. Glassware on a chip is on its way. The internet of things will need a platform. ANY suggestions as to where we might look for such a platform?
the volume today on no news... suggests to me two things... that you are correct about pnp selling... and that early whales still have an appetite for a bargain.. they must be bottom feeding whales... i'm encouraged to see those shares supported and picked up throughout this day of heavy selling...
Not much to say. Nothing has changed. Been busy and haven't posted much lately... misinformation continues to be disemminated across message boards...
My take is unchanged... company has guided 160 mil rev run rate eoy 2015... it is my understanding that is a floor and not a ceiling... i expect final eoy run rate moving into 2016 to be x2 to x5 the 2014 combined run rate which is 100 mil annualized (based on 2014 q2 & q3 numbers)... in other words, 200 to 500 mil run rate moving into 2016... please spare me the "let's be reasonable" replies... if you think i am off my rocker that's fine (i probably am)... but i don't plan on being "reasonable" anytime soon in regards to valuing a disruptive technology in a white hot investment space...
i see posts that indicate we should be grateful if this is sold for $30 a share... i won't be grateful... if it is sold for that it will simply indicate this was not a disruptive technology at all... if so, so be it... to me all indications are this is a truly disruptive technology and the revenue ramp is going to be impressive... unfortunately for skiddish investors the more impressive part of the ramp will occur in the second half of this year and into 2016... my intent is unchanged and that is to hold for 12-24 months... unless of course the entity is sold... i expect a sale price to be somewhere between 5 and 20 billion depending on timing... uncle Cyrus will ulitmately decide whether it gets sold and at what price... uncle Cyrus is in charge now... it was and is their investment strategy... i don't think uncle Cyrus will give this away the way skiddish retail investors might...
i think there is a 10-20% chance this could grow into a very large entity of its own, but is much more likely to be sold within the next 24 months...
i also think uncle Cyrus will address ANY cash flow concerns if ANY should occur while this is ramping...
finally, i am amused that ANY technology that even sounds like it mighta, sorta, kinda do something like GW is now being given preeminent status over and above GW... GW is a unique solution that offers profound efficiency advantages over other solutions... GW will not, of course, get the whole pie, but it will get a very nice slice of this new paradigm pie and long horizon investors will do well... jmo... glta...
Lol... much, much smarter...
Uncle Cyrus is all in too... that by itself should tell investors something.
Ericsson, mobotix too...
Yes. Stealth remains very much in play. S3d should be private company right now at this stage of development in tech, software, cloud industry. We are lucky to be here. All is well for long horizon investors. Actually far beyond well. Business fundamentals very much in tact. Stay the course. Ignore the noise. That is my plan. Jmo... glta...
Excellent post.
No. No cancelation. No worries.
I don't think you are looney. I think you are spot on.
Yes. Call based on floor, not ceiling, but fair call based on available info.
True dat. The recent angst on this board is somewhat amusing. 5/15, 8/15, 11/15 these dates matter and will tell the tale... 160m... floor not ceiling... all is very, very well... jmo... glta...
Nice find. Thanks. Company is certainly not backing away from 160.
I don't think cusip drives pps without revenue increase to drive demand.
Thanks pete. Great post.
Very well said.
To clarify 3-5 years is about what it would take to achieve vmware type market cap (35-40 bil). 12 to 24 mos I'm looking for 5 to 10 bil market cap. Buyout during next 24 mos definite possibility and I don't see that happening for less than 20 bil. Would take 10-15 years to reach Google, Microsoft behemoth status. All of course jmo...
MSFT most likely buyer at this point. Wonder if Google can allow msft to have it? Wonder if there is anything they can do to stop it?
Agreed. 3-5 years or until it is bought out.
I always enjoy your posts as well and find your contributions here immensely helpful to me. I learned long ago that I have only a very tiny share of the universe's wisdom. You and several others make this board worth participating in. So your disagreement is accepted in the spirit with which it is expressed.
As I'm certain you realize I am a long horizon investor. If my timelines are pushed back six months it won't matter much to me. I feel quite confident regarding the direction and essence of my posts. This is an unusually lucrative investment opportunity. Jmo... glta...
Agree. Found the way they broke out financials very interesting. Will have more to say on subject, but not for a week or so.
Agree. Big data is very big deal. And the fully merged S3D is in excellent position to take advantage of it across the product line.
I had low expectations for cc and said as much. I don't believe message boards have much impact on a stock and certainly don't think my posts should have much impact on others. Each is responsible for their own expectations.
Do I think gw on a chip happens by eoy. Yes. I think it is quite likely. Could the time line get extended? Sure.
My expectations for q1'15 are not high. I am hoping for maybe 30 mil. Will be disappointed with 25 as it is 2014 baseline.
My expectations for eoy run rate moving into next year... x2 to x5 2014 baseline. Am I crazy? Maybe. The bears certainly think so.
Plenty of reasonable questions remain re: gw... i agree with you there... questions regarding gw are no longer does it work, but is now how big will it be. Not if big, but how big. Gw is a solution for Windows and legacy software, will play a role in big data solutions, containerizing apps, cloud migration so on and offers unique efficiencies. Questions now are around how big? Jmo. Glta.
"When the GW floodgates open"
They open wide sometime in 2015. Maybe mid -year, maybe eoy... wide open.... everything to this point has been proof of concept... customization required. Scale out limited. This is changing. GW refined. Off the shelf, so to speak... in a chip is next.... in a chip by eoy... on devices then.... ubiquitous.
2014 was about proof of concept for GW... 2015 is about scale out... per PB tweet.
2015 eoy run rate will be crazy enough, but 2016 is when the really crazy numbers happen. Jmo. Glta.
Yes. Exactly.
Management is executing masterfully regarding business fundamentals, which is not to say their execution of the CC was masterful. It was not.
Stealth remains highly relevant at this stage of development for a proprietary technology such as glassware. Stealth is to protect value of investment for all those who are long.
Agree with your take on 160 mil and yes Azure deal is very, very big deal.
Hand wringing over CC missteps has been extensive, but no negative material events regarding business development.
"no discussion of GW products" ???
We were told GW Would be sold as subscription service in education market and priced at 15 to 200 base on usage.
This information also reveals that glassware has now been developed to the point where minimal customization is required, which was a critical development for scale out to occur.... scale out in education sector, but other sectors as well... this is a major step on the road to glassware ubiquity.
Neither accurate n
or fair to say no discussion of glassware products occurred.... management gave us more than most realize at the CC...
Yes. Eom.
Novarad, Dell, Azure = 3 important material validations of Gw to date across 2 verticals and into the cloud... not exactly screaming Gw is a bust to me. That plus S3D sans overland in 2014 compares quite nicely to vmware at same stage of monetization... that is at first 4 quarters of monetization.... jmo.... glta...
Yes. Quite likely a significant factor as well. Good point. Expectations for CC were definitely overheated.