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"Why try to understand me?"
I dunno. I also wonder why monkeys throw poop. It strikes me as very peculiar how convinced you always are in your predictions and conclusions and yet how infrequent you have been correct on anything related to nwbo. Maybe this trend will continue with your postulations on Direct. Now I am second guessing my own doubt. Usually a position contrary to your ramblings is the most profitable. Hmm..
Just trying to understand your recent barrage. Kind of odd for someone without a current position or any financial interest. You seem really pissed.
How much money have you lost on nwbo this year? Be sure to include opportunity cost.
Woodford also likes to make money while he waits.
I hope every stock I ever own is "manipulated" higher by the likes of Woodford and Buffett.
Very thorough analysis. I have a $15 long range target with approval of L and up to $25 if Direct shows promising extended OS, improved quality of life, and maybe even some complete responses in phase 2. Still some potential upside, but it isn't a trillion dollar market cap future (or even a 5 to 10 bagger from here) as some would like to believe.
Still bullish on NBS?
Wasn't too long ago that NWBO was just a penny stock (reverse splits removed). You should know that being such an investing genius and all. Are you not familiar with NWBO's history?
And why do you always bring a political twist when you try to discredit or demean. Seriously, please save that kind of garbage for YMB or someplace else.
Thanks for not criticizing my strategy. I hope we continue higher. It means my average sale price will be higher and everyone that is holding for the top will make out like bandits. We all win. Good luck to you as well.
Well everyone's situation is different. Your strategy probably makes good sense for a million dollar plus portfolio. Also, you probably have a much smaller % of your total portfolio in this stock than I do.
I am back to almost 200% gains on NWBO and it is now very overweight in my portfolio. The gains in NWBO the last few months have actually doubled the value of my entire portfolio. I know all too well how fast these paper gains can evaporate. I would rather risk missing the top and the opportunity cost of that choice, but still have my very sizable gains. If I repeat the same mistakes as last year and end up with nothing, I might as well quit these biotech adventures and stick to mutual funds.
Last year I had 200% + gains on the spike in June. I did not have an exit strategy and was on the fence as to what to do. I almost decided to take some off the table, but greed got the better of me and I spent the rest of the year watching all of my paper gains disappear.
If I sell some here, is there a chance I may miss out on even larger gains? Yes, but the increase we have seen the past few months is extremely rare (at least for me) and I am very happy with it. Is there a chance something nefarious could happen with my shares when I sell them? Yes, but I doubt the size of my holdings matter much in the big picture. There are much larger blocks constantly being traded by the institutions.
After the beautiful run up this year, I plan to average out of my position to a smaller core. If the price continues higher, my average sale price will follow it up. If we fall back to lower prices, the average will help me in that regard too and I may reinvest some of my earnings when we reach a stable floor. Stocks do not rise like this indefinitely and it will sell off at some point.
I invested in NWBO to make money. I don't plan to repeat my mistakes from last year and give it all back. Maybe my tolerance for risk isn't as high as some of the others here. Best of luck to you.
You probably shouldn't be criticizing anyone's writing ability smart guy.
Ever heard of buy low sell high? Maybe you prefer to jump in after a huge run? Good luck.
Well than I guess Woodford and I agree about the bio bubble. Are you saying that a severe sector correction would leave nwbo unscathed? I think there are a lot of index funds that own nwho.
What do you think is max price in the near term? Woodford has added hundreds of millions in value this year. And rightfully so, we were severly undervalued. Do you think this alone will continue to take us to a multi-billion valuation? I don't. There is still a long wait before the completion of L (next year at the earliest) and even longer with Direct. Have you noticed the phase 2 hasn't even started yet?
Nice! I think positive info from the upcoming conferences could push us into double digits. I will be taking some off the table in the 9-12 range (hopefully closer to 12). I think drawing comparisons with other biotecs that are grossly overvalued as a justification that nwbo should be just as grossly overvalued is foolish. There will be a market correction, it's just a matter of when.
Guess I have a different less greedy approach this year after getting burned last year and giving back substantial gains.
Yes, I think our $40-$50 best case scenario is turning into $15-$25. Depends on the level of dilution from payment of services to Cognant with $4 shares and additional warrants.
I also think there's a real possibility of a bio-bubble correction that could work against us this year. Hope not, but it's foolish to ignore that possibility considering the pie in the sky valuations of Kite, Juno and others. I haven't sold anything yet, but the higher we go the more cautious I get.
At the risk of sounding like someone telling you to sell and go buy a sweater, just wanted to say that this is probably a good time to evaluate the current price, market cap, current pipeline, competitors, etc. There isn't anything wrong with taking some off the table. I spent many months wishing I had done so last year after the spike to $10. Our current market cap is much higher now than it was last year at $10. I will probably sell some of my core between 9-12, not sure where yet. We still have a long wait for L and final results of Direct phase 1 (although we may have glimpses here and there). No I'm not trying to spread fud, or sell you puts or anything else. It is my honest opinion. I hope we continue higher.
I know one thing for certain. There is a lot of inherent risk here. The potential reward has to be great enough to compensate the risk. The retail reward side of the equation has been greatly diminished through dilution.
Sure wish Pyrr was around to talk about APR expiration calls and puts. Oh well.. Cheers buddy ;)
And I would be happy with a new deal at current SP. Oh and no need for warrants either.
I don't care how long the shares are locked up!! Do you hear the beep beep beep? It's a Cognant truck backing up for more shares and warrants at a ridiculously low price compared to current market value. Maybe you don't know what dilution is? Here let me explain the consequences to you. The pipe dream of a hypothetical $40-$50 winner (remember the reason we're all here) will be more like $15 if we're lucky. Still worth all the risk? I have a few other choice words for you but will restrain myself.
At what price point does Linda determine it is necessary to renegotiate the shares in lieu agreement with Cognant? Is a 50% share price discount really appropriate for related party transactions?
Great point!
Thanks! It's very helpful to have someone who knows what they talking about set the record straight.
I can figure out my cost basis and it's lower than yours. So by your rationale, I'm better than you.
So, let me get this straight. Woodford is so concerned about protecting his investment at 5.79 that he bought 20k puts, but at the same time confident enough to drop another 40M today to buy shares at 7.40 (above market price). Hmm.. Maybe, but doubtful. Seems more likely to me he is the seller and pocketed the 7 figures from the puts knowing that he controls this for now.
Yeah you keep saying he's hedged. You sure are certain in your arm chair speculation. Maybe he sold all of those puts because he knows he can keep the price above $6 and worst case scenario would love to buy a couple million more shares at $6.
No, that's how you decided to interpret what I wrote. Through his resources, Woodford has much greater access to information about NWBO and their trials than you or I. You can draw you own conclusions about how he obtains the information, but we know for certain it makes him want to invest nearly 70M.
I never said Nwbo or Linda divilged anything to him. He has the necessary resources to procure the information he needs from an unblinded trial.
What?!?. A publicly traded company cannot have any discussion with an institutional investor about the optimal timing of future investments (like a new fnd opening in April) and come to terms that will best suit both parties. How do you think these things happen? Linda picked up the phone this morning and said hey Woody I need 40M and he says done? Hmm.. Ok smart guy you got me..
Just curious. What do you think will happen to the price when the Direct data that Woodford is already privy to becomes public? Ever wonder if maybe Linda had to postpone her plans on releasing Direct data until April, after Woodford could buy more with his new fund? Maybe he expects the price to be much higher after the Direct data release and wanted to lock in another large block in the 7's. I'm sure Linda knows there has to be a little give and take with an investor of this caliber. All speculation of course ;)
Woodford needs someone to buy those puts ;) GL
Without the risk of an unfavorable financing, what is going to pull this back down in the near future? Data confused fickle retail? The weak hands have already been shaken out.
There are several potential positive catalysts and minimal negative. Is AF going to pen another scary article? Traders will play the upside for awhile IMO. And there's always the lottery ticket 1st interim for L. Better to be long (or cover) just in case we see the unexpected.
Yes indeed! Woodford has been doing a lot of 'talking' this year.
No worries, retail is going to sell this back into the 5's any day now..
Wow! Doesn't this knucklehead know he should be buying puts right now to protect his prior investment?? ;) Instead he drops another 40M. Reckless or wise move by the Buffett of the UK??
Actually, I was hoping for a FOX follow up to their original piece on L, to include the positive results from the information arm released in Germany last week, and timed appropriately with the CBS story on Duke's GBM immunotherapy treatment. Oh well..
RK,
I know you have many media contacts. Have any of them ever responded to your requests for coverage? After the CBS segment today, and the positive L news last week, maybe it's time for FOX News to get in on the action. ;)
After watching the 60 Minutes special tonight, I am even more excited about Direct and the upcoming phase 1 results. There is more and more evidence mounting to support the ability of the immune system to destroy cancer. So far we know about the stellar results of Butler and the lung cancer patient and the partial responses in several other cases (with continuing necrosis). These are very exciting times for patients, doctors, scientists and investors :)
Any early stage bio is highly speculative and very risky, but we should easily be at a market cap of 2 to 3 times the current price. Woodford and others recognize this and are pulling a Cramer special BUY BUY BUY!!! :)
Why not just look it up? Go to Nasdaq and click on institutional holdings.