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Tomorrow you can make money.
Today premium burn tight range got the options on the cheapest side, near the lowest cost (the goons don't like to sell cheap!!!).
So tomorrow I expect a stronger , juicy move. If you get on the right side of tomorrow then you make good money while pay the least.
The case is for up, and the case is for down, both feasible
EVERYONE is looking at 340
EVERYONE
That's what I'm thinking !
GOLD is going for the ATH AGAIN
It means EVERYTHING will go for ATH including SPY and ... your cost of living
All in the name of megalomania
It's like watching a dam (dollar) creaking under growing (inflation) pressure and wondering how much we have left until the dam (dollar) breaks and everyone for themselves...
On the positive side I bought GOLD on the huge shakeout-dip as posted, but I'm worried of economic catastrophe induced not by corona as much as by reckless policy and lost of dollar confidence followed by outright dumping ---> and dumping we talk TRILLIONS AND TRILLIONS
We saw CDN over the USD and I know from people how humble experience that was.
Next we could contemplate a life with Mexican peso higher than USD...
The Mexicans already CLOSED the border with US unilaterally, for corona stuff they say. I thought I would not see such a thing Lol. Next closure will be to stop Americans from flooding the Mexican menial job market ...
Once the USD loses the reserve currency status it ain't coming back EVER again, kaput forever.
Today it seems to be the SMALLEST daily range of SPY for a long time, all the way back to February, the pre-crash, LESS than even a measly dollar.
frequency seems to be 1-3 days, so we seem to be due for one either today or Monday
juicy trades ratio for past MONTH:
1% to 2% moves in short period of time
About 10:7 (greens-reds) in favor of greens
of which:
Mega moves of about 2%:
4:4 so equal opportunity, BUT...
The long trades seemed much easier to see in charts and take (provided you ignored negative rantings in media and on board)
Not to mention knowing that the crazy irresponsible men are in charge and dump inflation on the market to inflate prices (and cost of living).
The short trades seem harder and only after frustration (but are still there!!!)
bear this in mind when you trade
they better do somethin' about that no-pulse volume and no-pulse action
wasting the money on bait every day until we catch the whale
FANG is supporting the QQQ and SPY by extension
Apparently the other horses are sold
Is GLD FOUR TIMES higher today (+2.0%) than GOLD itself (+0.5%) ???!!!
What's going on ?!
Also not opinion.
Bullish for market:
- FED inflating money supply
- SPY in uptrend and hardly if ever dip
- SPY ignoring bad economic data and keep rallying
- Election time (where the incumbent uses his power to support the market to support his personal chances for re-election)
- and as a result ---> SPY just a mere a hair under ATH
I read some posters disappointment by SPY behavior, all manipulated, charts useless.
I agree with manipulated, I'm a choir.
Sometimes I see other guys fishing good trades while I am a watcher or worse a loser.
This time however, I have to say that THIS such time/s SPY is moving almost boringly rationally, as per (my) expectations.
It stands to show that none of us have all the cards.
Charts are fine. One has to add a strategy and a plan.
One word of advise to serious chartists/traders - turn your monitor vertically. (or buy one that does)
Then plaster a sandwich of indicators and you can see what is working and how much and when and if ever can be trusted.
To me this was a humbling moment.
Indicators that I trusted (and lost money on them nevertheless) , "special" settings, yada yada yada, proved to be mediocre at best and outright bullshit in many trading occasions.
It's worth to have a good monitor.
Multiple monitors can't do this.
Hopefully I stir an advises storm.. Lol
it's not crazy to protect puts, but it's crazy to HAVE puts once resistance being broken.
Same for calls but in reverse.
I had a put order but cancelled it the very instant resistance was gone. Then SPY jumped even higher. Who needs the aggravation..
Not me
But now at recent highs is play by the ear sort of things.
As usual I don't have time for that.
I didn't even had time to add to my gold on yesterday low as I was sooooo busy. I just heard on radio gold -6% and said fk man, missed opp. But even now is good. Not as good but still very good. Very bullish reverse candle and chart (not to mention circumstances).
You mean unproven!
If some countries use it successfully and return to a NORMAL LIFE ... while US is in covid daily death tool and economic disaster, I don't think it will be long until they cast the arrogance aside and buy the Russian roulette vaccine.
We have the Chinese chipo goods ... and now the infection , why not a Russian vaccine.. Lol
But first it has to be proven and accepted and no other option.
imo this is extremely unconventional.
Resistance implies just that , Resistance. Not an implied speculative number derived in (any) calculation.
Resistance is where it was proven selling to occur.
Speculative fib in ether is grossly unconventional, unlike fib inside traded zone which is conventional thus accepted.
The only ether speculative I know of that works and was proven is psychological levels like round numbers. 342 is NOT a round number thus invalid. 350 is. But the market handlers usually either frontrun these numbers or overrun by a bit to "shake and bake"...
Other numbers are crazy numbers like 666 (bottom if you remember), or 333 (give or take), which is the 2020 tops.
Resistance in general is where is ACTUALLY SELLING that overcomes buying for all to see, non speculative.
However it is acceptable fib lines as resistance inside a traded zone as well as support lines as it was proven to be LESS speculative that way.
That's what I know
hahaha, bingo 338
339.08 absolute ATH
resistance at 342 ?
Quote: "spy has a weekly resistance at 342 which has been spoken here before"
Yes and no. Every gen has it worse than previous in quality of life. More technology in each gen than prior ones, but that doesn't translate in better life with just few exceptions.
So by definition your gen is better off than the gen after you. You become the good old days.
Look at food. Look how much change (in bad) happened in your gen until now, how much GMO and chemically burned fruits all over the planet.
Look how much dollar VALUE deterioration.
Look at how much loss of liberties.
So even tho you think you have it worse, you are in fact LUCKY and better off than the next guys.
Maybe in the not so distant future we go ... "Soylent Green" (1973)
In effect life is no better with SPY 300 than with SPY 100
We have ever more troublesome problems
no stagflation brain-washing propaganda bs, the 70s were roaring and strong, everyone had money , it was literally a good life
If I can only have that back
The key is the RESERVE status thing.
If USD is reserve then nations will hold.
If it's deemed a "losing holding", then nations will at best "diversify" and buy some GOLD with some of the dollars, and at worst will exchange ASAP their dollars into GOLD - thus GOLD becoming the true Reserve money "ounce" again..
Then this will feed on itself as more and more nations won't want to hold the hot potato USD "reserve" currency..
This didn't happened just yet, it has to gain momentum. Once it starts rolling down, then only massive interest hikes will possibly stop it.
GOLD = ZERO interest rate (UN-printable)
USD = ZERO interest rate (printable, ..... and massively so)
It's not rocket science where things go naturally
previous 4 days last hour was up
;)
The answer is in the past.
More exactly in the pre-outsourcing era. The manufacturing was strong and in fact most everything else. it was a healthy economy with happy citizens with money, and money that had value I might add.
I'm thinking pre-1980
Reverse economic policies to THAT and most problems are solved.
Putting same ingredients makes same stew
Thanks for the good laugh. True
But now it runs out of fumes because the reality seems to be catching up.
But not a risk-free short right now.
For a risk-free short the entire market needs to show weakness at some sort of resistance, then bullish talk to be ignored (market selling them)
Tick-Tock Lol
Fed buying bonds is INJECTING (adding) money into economy = inflation.
Quote: "I've heard fed reserve moves to buy treasuries is actually deflationary because they hold their bonds to maturity rather than letting them get traded like usual, which takes money out of the economy"
The inflation is seen in 3 places imo. 1. regular staples, 2. RE and taxes (like property), 3. Energy and GOLD.
NOT the CPI BS.
Since GOLD is the most widespread of all, and with millenniums of monetary value history , imo GOLD is the ultimate canary in the SPY/market/eCONomy mine.
Due to reserve status of USD the Fed was able to mask inflation by exporting it to the world and suppress the GOLD. If the GOLD price is getting out of hand it will be THE signal of the END is near.
GOLD it's only barely above 2000, but that's nowhere near good news for the fed and gang.
I don't know how will unfold and I don't think anyone knows, and the pundits think business should continue as usual in spite of them going literally crazy with the monetary policies.
This is a mistake any power drunk elite made throughout the history.
I got to see many interesting things in life, like the moon landing, color TV, computers, smartphones, fall of Eastern empire bloc, and now more and more likely it seems I will see the fall of the Western bloc and the USA.
Greece and Italy among others (the "PIIGS") were bailed by Germans (and inflation), so if this economic-monetary shitstorm unravels then We will see a different world landscape.
The main point is that the USA stands to lose the most of them all.
Then without world strong-man a lot of bad things will start happening.
That is really sad to watch.
I even think of corona as past tense because of this.
It was a good run while it lasted.
I'm not trying to pick. Be kind my friend. Anything is possible.
But even by new-old standards 338 is a technical as well fundamental-technical (as per my other post) "sell and watch from fence if you love safety of your capital" zone.
Near 338 the SPY stratosphere is rarefied air and the rascals induce us to try risking good money for mere SPY pennies.
If SPY will make a strong (crazy) move (like the gold through 1800) through the 338 zone resistance then OK, we go along with the Titanic for whatever it's worth.
Quote: "What the economy have to do with market prices here?"
I hear you, it hasn't, .....and it has.
It used to be that the fundamentals matter. Even though for a long time it's been a gross shameless disconnect, it all ends one way or another. This time it's COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. The fed AND it's master puppeteers are at the end of the rope. Somehow cornered.
The only weapon and only power that USA has it's money as reserve status. Naturally all enemies (plenty), and even "friends" are envious and try to undo that.
The worst thing is the internal monetary harakiri the administrations been doing, with worst of them all just recently - too much to explain.
The corona also aided to make this like a perfect storm.
I mentioned the eCONomy to illustrate the circumstance. In February the country was in DIFFERENT, much BETTER shape than now. Even a blind can see that if the SPY/market is at same level something is terribly wrong.
This OBVIOUSNESS MUST work it's magic. We see GOLD shooting up through 1,800 like it was air. GOLD is the PRIMARY (likely the only) competition to USD hegemony as reserve currency and USA power.
Since GOLD is moving in OPPOSITE direction to USD, and strength of USD is literally strength of the USA, then USA have a vested interest to cap the GOLD. But we KNOW by now that no country no matter who can go and win against the whole world. Gold is rising because the world.
This situation is strongly connected to the USA economy. Since this in reality is just a shade, then GOLD will replace the USD as reserve currency willy nilly.
In summary, the fed kind of must let the market free (meaning it will fall) to save the dollar and by extension save the USA, and this in spite of Trump likely fierce opposition (understandably so).
Sacrifice the dollar and the USA?
I don't think so, but who knows, other empires had smart leaders too and made the suicidal choice nevertheless in the END.
So I look at technical and fundamentals in the eye - February versus NOW. Then I think of the critical fundamentals just described - that's why I said what I said.
I try to trade only technical, but can't ignore some fundamental milestones things like FOMC, or GOLD, or closures and such.
The FANGS or "corona" stocks are different, they don't qualify for value criticism of February vs August, although they are more bloated than ever with 20 inches of lipstick on their lips.
Thank you
Have a great weekend and good luck
I have done work on this myself, but not on SPY but QQQ.
It's very intriguing.
As per my own studies I can attest that YES it is a valid concept.
338?? don't you expect the rulers to at least PRETEND that the 337 is resistance?
If SPY runs by 337 ... then all and I mean ALL shorts , smart AND stupid will be out and put buying (and writing!) will be dead.
By this thing alone and I expect a pullback.
Fundamentally as the eCONomy is NOT good as in February also calls for a top
Technically tho we got to ignore all that
Yes, and makes sense to have and justify the volume.
You are not alone there about this.
There is one more thing as the famous detective would say:
The money!
There is no way the insiders (aka big and smart and connected money) won't suck on this tit.
So the insiders buy say $1,000,000 , then what you say happens (the insiders use the fed money to do the scheme what you described).
Then say at 5% rise the insiders liquidate their position and pocket the $50,000. They have to sell to bank (wash!) the profit.
This creates the dips. Not all insiders sell at once. So who didn't sell buy more and sell at say 10%.
When it's a coincidental sell of many insiders layers (1%, 2%, 5%, 10% etc) then the dip is much bigger.
I was thinking to try to map such thing as I think is doable.
When SPY drops too much and/or a stampede is provoked, and the insiders run out of position money they want to plant, then they ask for politicians to say something bullish, the media etc, ... or even the fed to outright give them funding -> not you if you are under water, just them.
My thinking anyway.
And I believe the shorting is similar in scheme.
SPY is approaching 337 highs and resistance so ... it's getting too obvious for the regular people ...
Grinding up calls for yet another scheme.
*I disagree based on charts.
(I don't know if all but) MOST TA works , and works flawlessly I might add.
Algos are nothing else but TA in a digital form in a program so the puters can do the button pressing as they do it faster and more objectively.
For example a moving average cross of daily 50-200 would activate the weight on side of trading long and so on - it's an objective TA that it's in programs and is an "algo".
I think the traders' frustration comes from a certain TA not holding true for too long for them to make a buck.
This is because two factors: 1. the MM try to lose the least to market players, and 2. the players became ever more sophisticated thanks to education and charting sites and trading groups, and technology.
So the landscape has changed and quite dramatically, so it is unfair and unreasonably actually to expect the game to remain static with all the change around us.
For example short up-down swings can be caught flawlessly by stochastics, and longer term swings can be caught by moving averages and trendlines and MACD - nothing has changed but tempo of the dance as times change so to speak.
It is up to the trader (you) to do some actual work and put up a symbiotic trading plan where there will be a trading strategy and MM around TA. Absent that the trading is more like gambling (with the frustration and pain that it brings).
Yes, I agree and liked that TT's post(s) - it's good food for thought for searching minds.
You also have some excellent posts.
*Quote: "since the algos took over most tried and true classic TA patterns no longer work, in fact, just the opposite. Also, trendlines don't seem to hold very well anymore"
.
By the same metrics SPY HOY in 2011 was about 114.
So today it should be (if we follow the value metrics example of 2x) SPY 218
But SPY is 322 (give or take), and climbed to near 340 which is almost 3x the 2011 reference value metric (114 x 3 = 342)
So Money has been destroyed 300% vs 2011, so 3x value multiplier is more appropriate if we look at SPY which IMO is a better representative of money supply since most of the QE money creation/destruction is dumped in the market assets.
So if we use the 3x we have GOLD 1,900 x 3 = 5,700 GOLD (that's where it is headed)
Not sure about Oil as it doesn't have the GOLD quality of storing value, but if we would use the same metric because the Oil central role in economy (corona or no corona), then Oil 2011 was VERY SIMILAR to SPY (about 110 highs from 2010 for few years), so Oil too can potentially shoot to 330 (in spite of Tesla and electric cars snake oil hype)
From this it would look that Oil is even more of a bargain for a trade than Gold is - GOLD a 300% potential vs Oil a 800% potential..
Consequently a price mapping can be done with the companies mining these, but that is getting too complex for my like.
Especially now as GOLD broke above the ATH of 2011 !!!!!
Now the money is even more worthless, so GOLD can skyrocket to a tangible asset price multiplier - so if a property cost in 2011 100,000 and now is 200,000 then the multiplier is 2x, so then the GOLD consequently can climb with that value multiplier from 2011 price.
So in effect GOLD can go 1900 x 2 = 3,800 and that at TODAY value, as if values continue to climb due to money destruction then GOLD will continue the catch up.
Trump and the fed can not print real assets like GOLD and properties, they only destroy the value of your money by ongoing reckless QE.
Since RE and GOLD have REAL demand, then the price have no choice but adjust accordingly to match the real value, and that unfortunately is up.
In effect the (price rise of) RE and GOLD represent the whole group of values, therefore a REAL CUT in our incomes and profits and savings(which don't even have an interest paid)..
10x ? Very good. You are right, you should've done that.
Telling wife? Bad idea, and a reason for losing. (too complex to explain long)
The difference between a business and trading is that trading is way more scalable and liquid, no comparison.
There are very few exceptions like Amazon, but the exceptions only validates the reality.
So if you step back and find a trading "trap" that works, then you can scale it. Done.
What stays in the way of this is the greed. It brings impatience and breaks the discipline.
But totally doable.
sorry for this question - is this the low of the week?
It WILL
for now it's fixed (rigged with naked paper)
But when a big entity (think China) will step in front of it and demand delivery -----> EXPLOSIVE GOLD PRICE (and dollar demise)
I think they (Chinese etc) are still crunching numbers and calculate the hit for maximum efficiency.
Impossible to time it, but good to be exposed.
inflation
keep an eye on inflation
A cheap store I like to go to just nearly doubled price of beef.
I think it's "testing the market" for now, but wow
Essentially this would cut all the people's income in HALF
Thanks T and T
I wouldn't. I'm not that brave to step in front of uptrend.
Also the month+ range seems broken to upside..
The next RESISTANCE that I see is near 311-312 area where shorting may be more safe.
OR - if SPY turns and goes back inside the range and does it strongly.
At which point last week highs would be resistance.
imo when trend is up focus on support (and BTFD)
I do realize SPY (technical uptrend) runs against reality on the ground and fundamentals..
They want to tie fundamentals to SPY.
That's fine. But is it really?
Headline propaganda: "Markets up on opening economies"
I call that a big lie.
No, it's not my opinion. It's factual.
I have quite few objective indicators. But I will pick ONLY ONE, the most prominent.
***** THE TRANSIT *****
Since the transit is a 100% TRUE reflection of the economic activity, as people MUST travel ... then I MUST see the transit gets full again near or at capacity.
From what I can see (and hear others tell me) there is NO return to ANY normalcy in transit.
Wherever you live watch this one factor - it tells you the reality.
And please feel free to share your findings (particularly if all looks good and back to normal).
Re: "Everyone saying don’t fight the Fed forgets they were doing $120B of repo per day for 6 months before the crash. Didn’t see that money stopping a 35% nose dive."
See my view exactly on this point in this regard...
I rest my case..
You voiced my point
It's only bailout for selective buddies, the rest of us we are seen as suckers, just cows to be milked and pay
About the Fed I disagree being all powerful. The Fed does have power, maybe bigger than most, but it is LIMITED - even if they print non-stop.
Envision this:
MOST of people would get LONG, and the Fed pumping up MUST (then) enrich day in and day out a GROWING number of winners. Soon people will just get paid and not work? IMPOSSIBLE THING
So there must be a breaking point, even seen mathematically by their computer models. ("shaking off monkeys" saying, when too many on one side comes to mind). The unlimited printing is a very VERY dangerous thing they try. It potentially will outright demolish the market and the Fed as we know it. I'm (sadly) looking forward to it.
Lovely line:
"How several targets are taken precisely and the next one just so close is not? it could be that that target is reserved for fund managers and their quarterly "indicators" so it is not ripe just yet? "
Well, it's been a pleasure (rare thing here unfortunately) this shop exchange.
I see your belief. I understand how you may have come to it.
I flipped myself few times on things (and therefore expect more flipping).
In my belief (ACCOUNTING FOR YOUR VERY VALID CONCERNS) trends DO exist and the rest (S/R, Gann, Angles, waves, etc etc).
Those are VALID elements. The MM have a problem with that as it potentially offer an edge to the players. So since they CAN NOT obliterate them (and I suspect they do NOT want to either) , then the next best thing is to :
1. cut them short (i.e. trendline, MA and channel followers fail just as they gain confidence)
2. Rotate them (let small swings go so Stochastic work and moving average players go crazy losing, then morph into a trending period so the stochastic players get frustrated and lose)
Once a trend takes hold the pattern becomes visible, so a trendline MUST be broken. So by the time 2 points are established and forms a trendline or channel they think it's time to change so no one can use that.
Sometimes they let it a while longer so to build trust in the game (think setup)...
I'm thinking that rotation comes in many ways. One of them is indicators and setups. MM has to fight an ever intelligent growing and advanced environment and I can't blame them for trying to NOT lose to the players.
I already mapped some items. Works, and I use it/them whenever possible, but it's a far cry from what could or should be. For example (under same logic as above) you can NOT have similarity in days. After a strong (long) day the odds are truly slim for another similar day, and if you get a second one then odds are excellent for a slow down, almost 100%.
I mapped this in two ways , one is shape/strength of a given day (daily chart) , and two, intraday strength seen through some short term EMA/SMA. The precision sometimes is spectacular. This is encouraging for similar work and thinking.
I think to try to map "indicator use" and "pattern use" (cadence of MM used tools). As always, I don't expect good results, but you never know. (time and too may projects are my nr1 problem)
The "clearing" I suspect is subject to the same "rotation to fool them foxes" thing
It's simple, but not easy
1,000 words
TT, while I agree with + like your concept, I just realized that I disagree with this side of it. This exchange of lines, this time, made me realize it.
Quote:
JK: "next level is cleared - do you have more above?"
TT: "Of course, as long as there is Market there are targets..."
Here's my common sense on this matter:
(circumstance) Price wiggles down.
In the process it builds and leaves behind/above resistance points (above this move) based on continuous breaking support that tries to form.
Your concept where we agree is that a move above such a resistance point should clear stops clustered logically there. Any move above a resistance point qualifies for that.
But there are 2 types of clearing, a valid and a fake one.
The valid is when the price clears, then resume the trend.
The fake (where I disagree) is when the price clears, but then do NOT resume the trend, but hangs around, typically ABOVE the resistance it supposedly just cleared. This shows that THAT resistance is in fact a support now - a technical valid concept.
Further more, based on this logic, the common sense dictates that there should be NO expectations of "more (resistance) targets" above this incident - as stops for the most part are typically moved (trailed) WITH the price advancement and typically the last resistance/clearing point is THE important clearing point (a max of 2 points if in proximity and cleared in the same day).
So the meat of stops is say at 298 level, so at 299 is barely few stops, so why the effort to clear that...
But the point is that after each clearing of resistance if the price then builds a support right there, then there should be no more expectations of clearing, no more "lines".
Now there is a thing unaddressed - the timeline. Trends and moves and legs are confined in a time frame. Each has their resistance chains to be cleared and if you go higher time frame (i.e. 15min vs 60min or daily) you have different cleaning expectations.
For example a stab above a resistance seen in daily will "clean" that resistance but will NOT destroy the resistance (and may only clean weak hands) if price CLOSE the day still bellow it.
But maybe I'm wrong and you base your concept on people that trade against the trend thus wrong trading and where they may place their "crops" of stops.
Just food for thought
Also, a "shaker" would be a final trend move before an invalid "clearing".