Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
How is it that the Contrave denial and "bad" CRL is bad news for VVUS and good news for ARNA? Any thoughts?
So you think if Aria signs a partnership with 150 mil upfront, she loses 10%? You are kidding right?
Agreed I thought we would be higher post pos succeed. Maybe she's a slow starter kinda like the J-E-T-S.
But then again, I am a true card-carrying, pom-pom waving long. So I am not so sure my opinion is the most unbiased.
You still long Cris? Let me know your opinion in a private message if you would be so kind. Thanks
Let me guess, you are new to Aria?
Check the date this is old news
I would say the gap is somewhere around $5.60-$5.75. I would not be a bit surprised if it got there should the overall market continue this little correction. I didn't expect this kind of a pullback after the positive Succeed news. Disappointed but not surprised. Future is very bright for this company and I would expect a lot of interest once risk comes back in favor. Bio and banks are getting the worst beatings.
If this stock is @ $10 within a year, those $7.32 shares will be a about a 40% ROI. Not too shabby, huh? Just relax, this will be distant a memory soon.
From the CC:
"We are pleased to announce.... blah blah blah..... Thanks to our great partner Merck.....blah blah blah..... and BTW, we are doing another 20 mil offering."
How do you like them apples?
Certainly doesn't make you all warm and fuzzy to see $100k+ evaporate from your account, but that is the way it goes. Aria is in a great position right now. Hopefully the Harv keeps his hands out of the dilution jar for a while. He said no deals till Succeed results. 534 is the real deal and I think we should see something relatively soon.
For what it's worth, the INCY chart would be just lovely by me!
I have a huge position as well and I added another 20k @ $6.30. BTW, Aria isn't the only bio getting killed today.
Are you guys for real? Your disappointed you didn't sell @ the highs????? Obviously looking backwards that would have been a good idea, but you don't have that luxury. Come back in six months and let me know "how badly it has acted". IMO, that was THE major hurdle for a while. If I didn't sell going into Succeed then I'm definitely not selling now after it just cleared.
NEWS FLASH GUYS!!!!!! STOCKS GO DOWN TOO!!!!!!
I don't think anyone thinks that, but the timing sucks.
So he sold 50k shares in the last month? I know he has 500k+, but that doesn't exactly warm the heart. Not something you want to see going into a major data release, regardless if it is a trivial amount.
Is that the 25k from 12/20 or an additional 25k?
One major difference. 1999-2000 (MC 880 mil) Aria was extremely overvalued. 2011 (MC 770 mil) Aria is actually cheap if you ask me. Just need to clear this one big hurdle.
BTW, I don't think our big brothers issues are helping us much today. Mrk failure spill over imo
The SS MRK is taking on some serious water. Perhaps another reason to aggressively pursue Ariad. I can only hope they don't add Rida to their list of failures. Nail biting time around the Aria board these days!
HB said Q12011
I listened to the presentation last night. I noted that Berger led with Rida for the first time in a while. That may be purely because of the imminent data coming out any day. I also felt he seemed upbeat and a little Rida chatty if you will. However, I trust HB about as far as I can throw him!
I agree with PGS and BTH that it is a very bad idea for your net worth to base investment decisions on the CEO's cheer leading. I have been burnt exactly this way before.
At this point I think it is an obvious gamble to hold thru Rida final, but it is one I think I am going to take. For me the qustions are:
-Where does the PPS land should Succeed fail?
-How long before it returns to the current levels?
-Is it worth risking say 25% of my gains for the potential of say 300-500% gain within a year or so?
Anybody disagree with my assessment?
Thanks Blade for your input. I have a sell in for 1/2 @ 6 and will let the rest ride (I thought it might hit it today). As for the Aria Succeed trial, thats the biggie right now. Fingers crossed.
Blade,
What do you think of Ziop here? It is up over $1 since the deal announcement.
Thanks 2da
Some posters here felt that the pps action pre-Succeed announcement should be a good indication of the outcome. I guess the thought being that the good news would be known prior to the announcement. Well the announcement is due anytime now and the pps has moved up considerably. So here are my questions:
1- Does the pps strength given the eminent announcement give any clue as to the outcome? (IMO the answer is no)
2- Shouldn't the pps have pulled back recently given the whole "bio-run up" trading strategy that permeates micro-biotechs? It certainly has had every chance to back up in the recent consolidation range. (IMO the answer is yes)
What I DO get a kick out of is the fact that this stock is up a lot since most of us loaded the boat. The daily fluctuations really won't matter much should the drugs do what they are intended to do. Just makes for a nice daily conversation.
1- Anyone know exactly how many trials Mrk has Rida in combo?
2- What does everyone think about Barclay's $4.50 floor? Seems a little optimistic to me.
agreed
Am I reading that right? They are saying $4.50 floor should Rida fail? That is the most bullish I have ever read from an analyst. You gotta love those projected number's! And that's with only $7/share for Pona.
It's not too late for you to start waving the BULL FLAG!
Anyone have a copy of the Jeffries report? Allegedly raised the target to $8. Woops, didn't realize our sunny day at the beach friend BTH already requested it.
I just checked the historical price chart on Yahoo. The volume did pick up considerably in the run from $3.80's - $5's. It has slowed some in the last 2 weeks. Someone more tech savvy than me should look this over and see what they come up with.
I don't know about you, but that chart up top is sure starting to look like a bull flag to me. I don't know if the volume is sufficient for a confirmed bull flag though. Any thoughts resident TA experts?
Maybe. We will see soon enough. I have some concern holding into a major bio event with such a substantial gain. I have looked into the puts and they just don't seem juicy enough to make it worth the money. Maybe I'm missing something. Have you considered "hedging"? LOL
Perhaps but many of us thought that we would get slammed when the Lilly debacle ended. Look what happened, the price went up. I think we might see a significant amount of buying if the stock got that low. Question: with Pona 1 1/2 years away and all these Rida combos, why would you say Aria is dead money for a year?
I don't see Aria taking that kind of a haircut on Rida failure. 60% is too much for a drug we don't even own. My guess is maybe we go as low as $3.50 or so. What do you think?
I'd call it a new luxury car! lol
And if it closed flat for the day then started a steady climb in the new year, what would you call it then?
Maybe a lil Christmas $
Doesn't he have 575K remaining?
Do you expect results at the conference on the 12th?
I think BTH has a point. MRK's commitment is prob based on it's value in combo in so many other applications. Not b/c of the Sarcoma trial. If the trial is a success then that's the icing on the cake. I have not read anywhere that the SUCCEED trial is a slam dunk. Nobody seems to really have a solid grasp of the outcome of the trial. I remember the guy who used to write on Seeking Alpha (Justin somebody) thought it had a 70% chance. He seemed to be the most optimistic of anyone I have read outside of this board and he prob isn't as knowledgeable as some posters here and on BV. I have a little trepidation holding into the trial. If we get a nice run (not that this one hasn't been nice) I might sell half just in case. Buy back the rest after. After the trial, it's a no lose IMO.
At this point, I don't see a better fit than MRK. The price part is the real question. I can't see HB selling for less than $20. That's a market cap of about 2.3 bil. If Rida makes it past this crucial point, I could see it happening by the spring.
So why are you guys holding firm on your position in the company if you have so much trepidation with Succeed? I am in the same boat and I consider lightening up my position daily. At this point, I am ready to flip a coin. Thoughts on selling some of your position.