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Re-read our posts from yesterday...LOL, classic. And prescient.
No partnering anywhere on the radar; should be the last of the dilution for a long, long, time.
LOL.
Stuff like this is the reason people hate Berger.
I'm just glad it's over with (and having the discussion about raising funds).
It really is annoying. It just makes him look like a total a-hole, and goes along with what DewDilgence said about him.
The raise will give them $200 million (plus) in cash. Thats a good balance sheet. Takes a lot of the B.S. overhang off the stock as well....this entire raise was telegraphed to the Streeet...which is f'ing B.S.
This is actually really funny. Berger says no he's not out there looking for cash and to quote him on it. All the talk on this board lastnight on what to do etc., clearly came early. No more worrying now. Can't wait to see where the pricing is, and how much they did. I hope it decreases the risk of getting involved in this turd at these levels. JPM and JEFF underwriters, overallotment, no warrants (obviously). Will probably price well.
Sadly, the scumbags telegraphed this entire deal to their clients I am sure.
It's clear Berger is planning on going this entire thing alone and there isn't any buyout ANYWHERE IN SITE.
Yes, Berger is a true stock printer. Like I said, it's his only real hobby.
Guess Berger wants to print more.
ARIA just filed a shelf.
But The Harv said he wasn't out there raising money? Man.. brutal.
No wonder this thing acts like shit.
This stock is nothing but miserable.
-5% again. gravitating to all gaps and a 200 day moving average. sad.
200 DMA, 9.71..here we come.
Are there ANY more gaps this POS can fill?
Thank god for good science. Ponatinib seems to be on cruise control which makes me, and I'm sure a lot of others forgive Berger for his past B.S. However, if it wasn't for his past B.S., I would never have been so fortunate to load the boat sub $2.50.
Thanks for your B.S. Berger...don't go back to your old ways.
stock issuance is,one of them.
Do you think it would make sense to partner Europe and Asia/Japan and give up profits/rights, or float 10 million shares here and essentially raise the same type of money?
Honestly, I do not know which way it is going to go.
BTW, $150 million upfront for Europe is probably way on the high end, out of range, considering PCYC just got $150 million (and a lot more in royalties etc) for a WORLDWIDE partnership....for a drug which docs are saying will do for lymphoma what Gleevec did for CML.
Maybe they would get $150 million...I'd be thrilled.
Personally, I wish Roche or someone of that caliber, would take a minority stake in Ariad, the same way Roche did with Genentech (yes, i know, RHHBY spun off DNA as an IPO in 1999.... but u get what im saying)
How many people have enrolled in the Debio trial? hasn't this trial been going on for well over a year and a half now? Do they have at least 10 people enrolled as of now?
Thank you for the notes.
FWIW, DebioPharm is a joke. I dont think its possible Curis management could have picked a worse/pathetic partner. Do they have one person working the trials at Debio?
When is this management and CEO going to garner some actual respect and get a real analyst to cover the firm?
He should just get it the hell over with. I find it amusing (in a bad way) that he would be so reluctant to float 10 million shares up here at $11-12 when he was issuing stock like gangbusters in some horrific financings down in the low single digits ----i mean, sht, BVF and ORBIMED are probably STILL unloading their warrants Berger gave them at $1.75.
Float 10 million shares at $10+, raise $100 million+, get it over and done with. After all the abysmal financings over the past few years below $5.00, whats a few more million....
He probably already has millions to enjoy. it's like these guy like David Tepper who runs Appaloosa. He made a few billion last year. Hell, give me 1/100th of that and I'm all set. But, many of these guys (prob myself included) would get bored or dont know what to do with themselves once their not working ---kinda like a pro athlete who retires 3 or 4 times bc he realizes that sitting at home getting nagged by the wife isnt the same as being in a locker room giving rat tails to your teamates in the shower...LOL
lol, he's 61 according to the proxy statement. 61 isn't the same as it used to be. i'd be bored stiff retired at 61. plus, he wouldnt get to visit liz clayman anymore to do Fox interviews.
It doesn't really matter what I think would be a reasonable price for a buyout would be. If Berger agreed to a sale of the company, I absolutely know, 100%, that I would be thrilled with it, because he's a greedy SOB.
I really have no idea what this area would fetch. Didn't Berger just say Japan-Asian is the second largest market (for drugs)?
They have had terms sheets out there on Ponatinib, literally, for at least a year now (possibly longer).
Does anyone actually think Berger hasn't done a deal because it's either give up a portion, or sell the entire company? When you start breaking up the pipeline to other parties you have multiple crap to deal with ---you gotta deal with Merck (who are a joke in oncology), and now, if they partner with someone else, you run the risk of dealing with someone else as well.
Further, they already gave away rights to a large part of their current franchise (Ridaforolimus), now, if you give partial rights to someone else, you really start making it complicated if you ever do want to sell the entire company. Look at Exelexis...the company is a shit-show insofar as all their ridiculous partnerships over the years---it's probably one of the reasons why no one ever actually did buy them.
I don't know...personally, I hope Takeda is in the process of saying, "Screw it...will you take $3.5 billion for the whole company?" I'm sure everyone will say, "WTF, $3.5 billion is NOT ENOUGH." Maybe that's true. But I'd rather take that money instead of waiting for the POSSIBILITY of the world not going to shit in the next couple of years, or waiting to see if sales of Ponatinib really are in the billions, or waiting to see what 113 does. Give me $23/ tomorrow and I'm thrilled. Again, I'm sure there's a lot of people who think the 1999 $45 Ariad is the same as the 2011 $11 Ariad....it's not...there's only about 100 million more shares since then.
IMO, if Ariad gets down to $50 million in cash (and I do not know when that will be--a couple quarters?) Ariad ended last Q with $86 million (INCLUDING $25 million milestone from Merck). What was there guidance for YE cash? (I dont have it off hand). I suspect they'll be down to $70 million-$75 million EOY.
They have to do something in Q1 (unless they really want to get precariously close to the crap-bag biotech world of having less than $50 million in cash and a big burn with multiple, expensive, large trials on hand or forthcoming), at which point larger investors are going to start to shy away, regardless of what they have in the pipeline - - i.e., if something blows-up out of nowhere then they have 9-12 months cash, and no prudent CEO would ever let it get there anyway).
I wish Berger would just figure out WTF he's planning on doing...because the issue of a financing is clearly coming up. I really don't buy anyone saying, "he's waiting for ASH data to make a deal.." That's B.S. Any potential partner/acquirer would more than likely already have access to data through confidentiality documents, and term sheets etc...am I wrong?
The amazing thing is, I don't think most institutional investors even really think Ariad is a take-over candidate due to their CEO (who most think either would ask way too much, or just simply wouldn't part with the company). You hear many many names in biotechworld as candidates for take-over, but the only people who really mention Ariad are people on Yahoo! who still think there's a $65 poison pill...my god.
1. CEO says he is not out there looking for money (in secondary issuance terms)(and to quote him on it);
2. CEO still deciding on whether to partner EU (with decision in early Q1, according to Reuters (but then again, they have interns writing their crap)..) How many times have we heard Berger say they're keeping Europe and now Reuters is saying he told them that decision will be made in Q1? I thought he ALREADY made that decision?;
3. CEO still debating Asian partnership and will 'go it alone' in Q1-2 starting a trial in Japan;
4. CEO back and forth (which one is it), on partnering Europe, not partnering Europe, partnering Asia, not partnering Asia. Going it along, not going it alone. You can listen to numerous investor conferences and it's really difficult to even understand what direction this guy even wants.
Having said that...it's either one or the other---or not. You either partner, or you raise money. The "not" part of it is you don't do either and you're in negotiations to sell the entire company or take sell a large minority stake in the company (for some reason I do not see Berger parting ways with 100% of Ariad unless he's making $1 billion for himself). Either way, the company is going to need money...one way or the other....or not.
Why cant this PIG start acting more like PCYC? There is clearly a financing overhang at work here that is holding back any real buying interest in the stock.
my thesis is the stock price of this company in 12-18 months is north of $25.00 with progressively lower down side risk....It's risky but...you gotta take your shot when it comes and before you die..
On a positive note, the market completely sucked today....driven entirely by low volume (consolidaed tape vol was even lower than Fridays tape), EUR/USD algorithmic B.S. I highly doubt there was much of any "carbon based" traders out there trading today. I would have thought/figured ARIA would have been true to form and sold off at least 10% today like it usually does on a data presentation event...the fact we were only down 2.5% is a good thing, especially in this crap market. ....lets hope a dump doesnt come tomorrow when there isnt any news in the a.m. (as if people think Berger is actually holding out to announce a big partner at ASH).
Theres a lot of shitbag CEOs out there violating RegFD....(especially in the microcap category)
They just deny it when called upon.
Is this the drug they acquired a couple of years ago for less than $20 million?
If so, good for them....could be a huge winner for them. I never really bothered to follow the company or do any real DD on them bc I always thought nimotuzumab was crap. They have some incredibly smart institutional holders (Baker Bros et al).....its the Yahoo posters who probably drove me from looking further into it.
Geez. I wonder if they used the same boilerplate contract that Curis' CEO uses when he signs away all of Curis' drugs.
That's the first time in a long time I've heard him open the door a bit more to a Euro-Pona partner rather than close it down -- perhaps he's starting to get some concessions?
There has got to be a lot of ASCO news from Ridaforolimus combination studies (which are well into Phase 2 now). They're supposed to submit NDA for Ponatinib mid-2012, right? Think it looks good, but if Europe still has its head up it A## in 2012, we're going to be up and down up and down until something happens one way or the other. really sick of it.
it gapped up to $7+
Yeah. I would think the next "event" for Ariad will be the JP Morgan conference in early 2012.
Does this pig ever NOT selloff on news?
LAZARD CAPITAL RAISES ARIAD PHARMACEUTICALS INC <ARIA.O> PRICE TARGET TO $16 FROM $14
I think Vismodegib will be priced inline with Zelboraf, around $75,000/year. Roche did a recent study, a sampling, and says around 1.5% of the 2,000,000 BCCs in the US per year would be prospects for aBCC or mBCC. Thats 30,000 patients a year just alone on the first indication. Times that by $75,000/ year and see what you come up with. Of course, Curis only gets less than ten percent of that. This is all simple math and assumptions, and by no means hard forecasts. Having said that, a lot of people thought that Gleevec in CML was a very small market with a small patient population and as you know, Gleevec is a multi billion year drug.
I am not familiar with the ONXX story, but was this trial setup as a pivotol trial? I am just wondering if the FDA could pull something like this with ARIADs PACE P2 Ponatinib study.
He used the word, "encouraging." Show me a biotech executive who doesnt use that boilerplate word. Whats he supposed to say?
the agency advised the company that recent Oncology Drug Advisory Committee recommendations specify a preference for Phase 3 trials for the accelerated approval pathway