IMO, if Ariad gets down to $50 million in cash (and I do not know when that will be--a couple quarters?) Ariad ended last Q with $86 million (INCLUDING $25 million milestone from Merck). What was there guidance for YE cash? (I dont have it off hand). I suspect they'll be down to $70 million-$75 million EOY.
They have to do something in Q1 (unless they really want to get precariously close to the crap-bag biotech world of having less than $50 million in cash and a big burn with multiple, expensive, large trials on hand or forthcoming), at which point larger investors are going to start to shy away, regardless of what they have in the pipeline - - i.e., if something blows-up out of nowhere then they have 9-12 months cash, and no prudent CEO would ever let it get there anyway).
I wish Berger would just figure out WTF he's planning on doing...because the issue of a financing is clearly coming up. I really don't buy anyone saying, "he's waiting for ASH data to make a deal.." That's B.S. Any potential partner/acquirer would more than likely already have access to data through confidentiality documents, and term sheets etc...am I wrong?
The amazing thing is, I don't think most institutional investors even really think Ariad is a take-over candidate due to their CEO (who most think either would ask way too much, or just simply wouldn't part with the company). You hear many many names in biotechworld as candidates for take-over, but the only people who really mention Ariad are people on Yahoo! who still think there's a $65 poison pill...my god.
