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I have registered for the teleconference and I have received the following mail from Kevin Price [kevin@minamargroup.net]
Thank you for signing up the for UWRL teleconference. We can only select 10 individuals so please forward us your questions and the 10 best, most relevant questions will be picked from all shareholder questions. Those individuals will be selected for the teleconference.
Please send your questions to Kevin.
Hey Bizzard, I have accumaulated 6 million shares between 0.0009 and 0.0024. My average is 0.0018. I have put all my money here and waiting for the news. I don't have any more money to slap the ask. All the shares i bought on the ask.
Yes. Lets hope for the news on Friday. I think this is Guru alert also and his target is 10cents. If we get a R/M news, we might see 10 cents. No Trade today so far. I think no one wants to sell at less price.
Yes. It would be great if both NWTT and SS*C sit at 0.011.
Authorized shares does not matter.
As per the Last Quarterly filing from their website,
Common stock; $.00001 par value; 2,500,000,000 shares authorized;
1,424,037,201 and 473,685,705 issued and outstanding.
Outstanding only 473,685,705. So I think this might run better than SS*C.
As per the 8-K, they will complete the DD within 15 calendar days from 03-Jun-2010. which means we might get a news by 18-Jun-2010 about the possible reverse merger.
He calculated from high of the day and from not yesterday close.
I think you are talking about GVBP which ran from $0.003 to $1.25. But It was a scam.
Yes. For penny Stocks 126 million is very thin. PPS can move higher with less volume.
Share Structure as of 03/31/2010 quarterly report filed on 05/13/2010
http://www.otcmarkets.com/otciq/ajax/showFinancialReportById.pdf?id=31871
A/S: 1 Billion
O/S: 611,272,285
Restricted: 486,600,000 (CEO shares)
Float: 124,675,285
No. I am not going to buy anymore. I have already bought all I could afford to lose. If I am lucky and my calculations turns out to be true, I might end up getting 40 times of my investment. Otherwise its fine.
I am not scaring people who have invested in this CVR. I am telling the actual Facts and it can be easily achieved.
We will paid if the adjusted EBITDA is $1.267 Billion. Last 10-Q reports says "Each CVR represents the right to receive a pro rata portion of an amount equal to 2.5 times the amount by which cumulative Adjusted EBITDA of APP and FKP Holdings and their subsidiaries on a consolidated basis, exceeds $1.267 billion for the three years ending December 31, 2010."
Here are the calculations to get $6 per CVR after Dec 31, 2010
Max CVR value is $6/ CVR or $980 Million total. If I divide 980 Million /2.5 times = $392 million. (We get 2.5 times the amount that exceeds $1.267 Billion).
So Adjusted EBITDA should be $1.267 Billion + $392 Million = $1.659 Billion.
Adjusted EBITDA as of Mar 31, 2010 : $740 million
Next 3 quarters Adjusted EBITDA (Considering the CVR price goes up) : $330 Million
For us to get the Adjusted EBITDA to $1.659 Billion as of Dec 31, 2010, we have deficit of $1.66 Billion - $1.07 Billion = $590 Million.
So the CVR price should be $590 million / 163 Million CVR = $3.62 / Share.
Also I have not included the sales of DIPRIVAN in the Adjusted EBITDA. It could only go up and required CVR price will be less than $3.62.
Finally, if the CVR price is $3.62 as of Dec 31, 2010 we will be paid $6/CVR. I think its a good oppurtunity for everyone to get the easy profit. MM's might know all these calculations and might slowly accumulate all the CVR's. From Dec 31, 2010 its only 66% profit. But if you consider the current price, the profit will be 5000%.
With these calculations, I am decided to hold my CVR's and see if I get 5000% in 13 months. I know everyone look for the near future. But in the long run, it might turn out to be a good profit.
Sigma, Thanks a lot for your information. Hopefully we get a PR tonight or in the morning.
I have read in the Message board that the CEO owns 83% of the total CVR's. If he feels if they are not goint to reach the target he would have sold his shares. I dont think he will dump his shares at this price. we should see $2 - $3 before dec 31, 2010 irrespective of achieving the target.
I think the actual message was posted this morning EST and this person has copied the same content and posted.
As per the FDA website update, Bicalutamide9 Tablets, Fresenius Kabi Oncology is approved May 17, 2010.
Link : http://www.fda.gov/Drugs/NewsEvents/UCM130961
New and Generic Drug Approvals
Visit Drugs@FDA1 to search Drug Approval Reports by Month.
May 18, 2010
Lamivudine and Stavudine2 Tablets, Hetero Drugs Ltd., Tentative Approval
Retrovir3 (zidovudine) Capsules, GlaxoSmithKline, Labeling Revision
Retrovir4 (zidovudine) Syrup, GlaxoSmithKline, Labeling Revision
Retrovir5 (zidovudine) Tablets, GlaxoSmithKline, Labeling Revision
Savella6 (milnacipran hydrochloride) Tablets, Cypress Bioscience, Inc., Labeling Revision
May 17, 2010
Afinitor7 (everolimus) Tablets, Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corp., Labeling Revision
Alprazolam8 Extended-Release Tablets, Watson Laboratories, Approval
Bicalutamide9 Tablets, Fresenius Kabi Oncology, Approval
Invega Sustenna10 (paliperidone palmitate) Extended-Release Intramuscular Suspension, Ortho-McNeil-Jansen Pharmaceuticals, Inc., Labeling Revision
Letrozole11 Tablets, Fresenius Kabi Oncology, Tentative Approval
Letrozole12 Tablets, Accord Healthcare, Inc., Tentative Approval
Taxotere13 (docetaxel) Injection, Sanofi-Aventis U.S., Inc., Efficacy Supplement with Clinical Data to Suppport
OXALIPLATIN approval was for FRESENIUS KABI ONCOLOGY on 08/07/2009.
You can see the approval in the link http://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cder/drugsatfda/index.cfm?fuseaction=Reports.MonthlyApprovalsAll
Search for 08/2009 and on 08/07/2009 you will see the approval.
For this approval, APP Pharma has released a PR 08/10/2009.
Link: http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=130431&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1318890&highlight=
Yes profit from the Inventories will make their way to EBITDA. But we are not worried about the EBITDA and worried about Adjusted EBITDA.
If the total Inventory for the Quarter ending Dec 31, 2007 is $100 million and the total inventory at the end of Dec 31, 2010 is $250 million. Which means $150 million should be included in the Adjusted EBITDA at the end of Dec 31, 2010. I am not sure though about the Adjusted EBITDA calculation. I will do more research on this.
Change in the value of contingent value rights is included in the Adjusted EBITDA calculation. The CVR values for the Quarter ended Dec 31, 2009 is $0.30 and Mar 31, 2010 is $0.15. So change is -0.15 and $24.48 million is deducted from the EBITDA. Please refer page 29 in the last 10Q report.
As of now, the Adjusted EBITDA is approx $735 million. If the MM's can raise the PPS to $3.5, total value the CVR will be approx $560 million. So the Current Value of the Adjusted EBITDA + total values of the CVR will be more than $1.267 Billion (this is not including the Adjusted EBITDA for the next 3 quarters). If they can increase the value of the CVR to $3.5, we will be paid $6 per share. Am i missing anything in my assumptions? I feel something is not right.
I have one question. As per the Last 10Q Report page no.9, the Total Inventory (Finished Goods, Work in Progress, Raw Materials) is approx $214 million. In case at the end of Dec 31, 2010 if they have the Total Inventory $250 million, will this be added into the Adjusted EBITDA? If its added into the Adjusted EBITDA, then the target can be achieved easily.
The following are from the Mar 23rd PR for the approval to market Indomethacin for Injection. Actual FDA approval date was Mar 17th but the PR was on Mar 23rd 1.01am EST.
1. APP will supply Indomethacin 1 mg as single dose vials. APP's Indomethacin is bar-coded, preservative-free and latex-free. According to IMS data, 2009 sales of this product in the United States were approximately $22.5 million.
2. APP plans to launch Indomethacin for Injection in the second quarter of 2010.
we might see a PR early morning tomorrow. I would like to see some sales numbers like in the past PR's. If they mention that annual sales is approximately $1.5 Billion and mention that plans to launch in June. I think we should see a PPS of $2.50.
In the last 2 hours, I think only 3 million shares traded. So its a good thing. Not many are selling for cheap.
My Analysis
2008 and 2009 EBITDA - $663 Million
2010 First quarter EBITDA- $100 Million. If the same trend continues we might have 2010 EBITDA - Approx 400 Million. So total EBITDA for 3 years would be Approx 1.063 million. We will be short of $200 million to reach the Thresh hold. With the approval of two new drugs, considering the annual sales as 1.5 Billion, for 6 months We can have min sales $750 million. 50% profit for the two new products will be $375 million. So total EBITDA for 3 years with new drug approvals could be $1.438 Billion. That is $171 million more than the thresh hold of $1.267 Billion. We will get the 2.5 times of the 171 million for the CVR i.e total value shouldbe approx $427.5 million. Total available CVR approx 170 million. So CVR holders should get approx $2.5 for each CVR they own. This is just my assumptions.
My suggestion would be set a target for sell and take your profit. If it tanks again, then buy with your profit and wait until June 15th to see if the buyout is true or not. Good luck.
http://www.otcmarkets.com/otciq/ajax/showFinancialReportById.pdf?id=30593
In this they have posted the exact share structure. 128 Million O/S and CEO's shares 120 million not restricted.
As I said Last night, they have already released a PR saying they can go ahead with the Borad's decision. So I think I am right on Point#1. Anyways I hold some shares and will try to sell when it goes up. For me, something is better than nothing. If the deal is true in the end, I will feel I am unlucky not to hold. Good luck to all.
My opinion on this deal. This is just my view.
A/S 1.5 Billion and O/S 1.3 Billion. Out of 1.3B O/S, CEO has 1.1B Restricted shares. If the deal is true and goes through, I feel CEO might have to give back some shares. For e.g: CEO might give back 800 Million shares. Then the buyer might pay only for 500 Million shares. i.e approx $175 Million. Even if the CEO gives back 800 million shares he still gets $105 million. Nothing is confirmed until we get the buyer name and $0.35/share. My personal opinion is this is scam. The CEO will not announce the buyer for atleast 15 days and they will release PR once in two days and they will unload their shares. For trading you dont need to get $0.35/share. You can trade based on news and make profits.
1. Tomorrow we might see a PR that the Board can authorize the sale of the company because CEO owns more than 90% of the total O/S. Then the share price might will trade between Low 6 cents and high 10 cents and End at 8 cents.
2. After one or two days, they will say they have decided to sell the company for $0.35/share because the deal is sweet. But due to confidentiality the buyer cannot be announced. The shares will trade between 7 and 12 cents and end at 8 cents.
3. After few days we will get a PR saying the company is doing due diligence and the buyer will be announced in few days. Again we will see a jump in PPS.
4. Finally they will announce the fake buyer and the share price will Initially go up and end up down. The people will realize its a scam and the share price will go back to less than a cent finally.
Smart people will make money and some people will end up bagholders.