Fresenius Kabi Pharmaceuticals (APCVZ)

[anbu]

My Analysis
2008 and 2009 EBITDA - $663 Million
2010 First quarter EBITDA- $100 Million. If the same trend continues we might have 2010 EBITDA - Approx 400 Million. So total EBITDA for 3 years would be Approx 1.063 million. We will be short of $200 million to reach the Thresh hold. With the approval of two new drugs, considering the annual sales as 1.5 Billion, for 6 months We can have min sales $750 million. 50% profit for the two new products will be $375 million. So total EBITDA for 3 years with new drug approvals could be $1.438 Billion. That is $171 million more than the thresh hold of $1.267 Billion. We will get the 2.5 times of the 171 million for the CVR i.e total value shouldbe approx $427.5 million. Total available CVR approx 170 million. So CVR holders should get approx $2.5 for each CVR they own. This is just my assumptions.