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Like an investors Robin Hood? Or just Hood?
Nothing under .90 is acceptable IMO, purely off the revenue multiple valuation which, is the most popular in hyper growth markets. Which this one is!
I was born at night but not last night
http://www.cov.com/files/Publication/011e84d9-2fc6-47ff-9e18-004e7e65ba81/Presentation/PublicationAttachment/b51363ab-5a85-49fb-b486-040799fbf1d1/769.pdf
Page 13 of this document, second paragraph, right hand column. You got it wrong...
Agreed, but, if not we'll gat to see his name in lights very soon...
That's way over 5% beneficial holder, and he has to disclose. Just review the filings for Traffix...
Listen up folks!!!!!!!!
This post is an attorney talking, which pretty much debunks duelittle and the other poster I cant remember.
For some reason, people pontificate about that which they do not know. There are very intelligent people on this board, if you know what you're reading.
Hopefully tomorrow we get clarity.
Member mark for you...
Awesome Post!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
That makes the most sense. BD buys ATRN. They save the additional valuation cost, cause they own shares. They grow the business a bit more, then back the friggin truck up to unload shares sitting on the front seat, then leave with an 18 wheeler of benjamins.
I'm partial to 6.45
So then the post we r referring to can be deleted, cause we know it's false.
Let me ask you this...one thing...
Do you think that FORM 25 skirts the need to follow Sarbanes Oxley? You think that filing items to the SEC doesnt mean jack to their Fiduciary Duty to shareholders?
ABSOLUTELY NOT!!!!!!
I'm an insurance broker and I sell D&O. These boys are going to run out of insurance limits, because when, not if, we get done with a class action suit, Dyne and the boys will still have to dig deep in their pockets to pay legal fees and fair value to us shareholders. I promise you that!
This company is going to be valued for peanuts compared to 2015's valuation.
Believe what you want, but I'm telling you they cant get away with lying to shareholders like you insinuated here...
Some apparently do...
Its springtime. Hopefully my money tree is in full bloom next week.
That theory would be plausible, but again, why retire the 13M shares? Why go through the other 4 filings? Makes no sense.
If you are following American Bulls, then you should expect to lose money.
I love a site that says wait, and when the stock tanks, it says, oh yeah, you should have sold yesterday at .10
ONE FINAL ITEM:
If you read this post: http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=73905376
Based upon valuation method in a hyper growth industry. 2-3x revenues puts us at...
$40M revenues = .92-$1.38
$50M revenues = $1.15 to $1.72
<--This is me, to the bashers!
From this link:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/60049-traffix-merger-presents-arbitrage-opportunity
The transaction values Traffix’s share base upon New Motion’s Wednesday closing price of $14.00 at $9.56 a share, more than a 42% premium over Traffix’s closing price on Wednesday.
42% premium over FORM 25 Filing is $.62, which in my mind, is BS!
I'm not going to go through and evaluate Traffix market position at the time of the merger, or the growth potential involved for that company
However, in a hyper growth marketplace, fair valuation is the multiples of revenue approach. Check here: http://www.accountingtools.com/acquisition-valuation-methods
Valuation Based on a Multiple
Another option is to use a revenue multiple or EBITDA multiple. It is quite easy to look up the market capitalizations and financial information for thousands of publicly held companies. The buyer then converts this information into a multiples table, which itemizes a selection of valuations within the consulting industry. The table should be restricted to comparable companies in the same industry as that of the seller, and of roughly the same market capitalization. If some of the information for other companies is unusually high or low, then eliminate these outlying values in order to obtain a median value for the company’s size range. Also, it is better to use a multi-day average of market prices, since these figures are subject to significant daily fluctuation.
The buyer can then use this table to derive an approximation of the price to be paid for a target company. For example, if a target has sales of $100 million, and the market capitalization for several public companies in the same revenue range is 1.4 times revenue, then the buyer could value the target at $140 million. This method is most useful for a turn-around situation or a fast growth company, where there are few profits (if any). However, the revenue multiple method only pays attention to the first line of the income statement and completely ignores profitability. To avoid the risk of paying too much based on a revenue multiple, it is also possible to compile an EBITDA (i.e., earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) multiple for the same group of comparable public companies, and use that information to value the target.
Better yet, use both the revenue multiple and the EBITDA multiple in concert. If the revenue multiple reveals a high valuation and the EBITDA multiple a low one, then it is entirely possible that the target is essentially buying revenues with low-margin products or services, or extending credit to financially weak customers. Conversely, if the revenue multiple yields a lower valuation than the EBITDA multiple, this is more indicative of a late-stage company that is essentially a cash cow, or one where management is cutting costs to increase profits, but possibly at the expense of harming revenue growth.
If the comparable company provides one-year projections, then the revenue multiple can be re-named a trailing multiple (for historical 12-month revenue), and the forecast can be used as the basis for a forward multiple (for projected 12-month revenue). The forward multiple gives a better estimate of value, because it incorporates expectations about the future. The forward multiple should only be used if the forecast comes from guidance that is issued by a public company. The company knows that its stock price will drop if it does not achieve its forecast, so the forecast is unlikely to be aggressive.
Revenue multiples are the best technique for valuing high-growth companies, since these entities are usually pouring resources into their growth, and have minimal profits to report. Such companies clearly have a great deal of value, but it is not revealed through their profitability numbers.
However, multiples can be misleading. When acquisitions occur within an industry, the best financial performers with the fewest underlying problems are the choicest acquisition targets, and therefore will be acquired first. When other companies in the same area later put themselves up for sale, they will use the earlier multiples to justify similarly high prices. However, because they may have lower market shares, higher cost structures, older products, and so on, the multiples may not be valid. Thus, it is useful to know some of the underlying characteristics of the companies that were previously sold, to see if the comparable multiple should be applied to the current target company.
Why spend the money if in days or weeks you will be gone?
If you're selling your house and your carpet is fine, are you going to install new carpet just for $ hits and giggles?
You're out of there...
I care about Monday. DOWNTANK SO I CAN BUY MORE...
Thanks...
I'm also conjecturing the following after comparing Traffix to ATRN timeline of filings...
When Traffix filed their FORM 25, everything moved really, really fast. The deal was done IMO.
When ATRN filed their FORM 25, it was to save all kinds of fees associated with continuing on NASDAQ. Someone on the board mentioned that ATRN saved somewhere in the neighborhood of $2-$2.5M in various fees. This deal, however, IMO, was not done.
Both FORM 25s are identical, and the subsequent 8ks that followed.
The only question that I have is that it looks like Traffix informed investors of merger / acquisition prior to the FORM 25 being filed. It's completely different circumstances, but one thing is really clear...
Once the filing of the FORM 15 was done, it moved quickly. What I mean by this is, all 5%+ owners showed their cards in SC 13 Filings.
I think the same will occur with ATRN, as Direct Buy, Adidas, Zappos and other high profile clients won't want a 'dark', delisting company handling their marketing.
Here's a really interesting tidbit, which I didn't know. Did you folks know New Motion used to be Atrinsic? And New Motion bought Traffix? Maybe Traffix has been sold since then, but nonetheless, here's the details of the deal:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/60049-traffix-merger-presents-arbitrage-opportunity
I've been reading up more on the players involved here. For those that don't know, this is one of our directors...
http://europlaycapital.com/old/ourteam.html
From this website...
Europlay Capital Advisors Team
Our mission is to deliver extraordinary value to our portfolio companies and clients by solving their most challenging business problems, creating massive shareholder value in the process. Europlay Capital Advisors has created Billions of dollars of shareholder value in the past 5 years alone.
Our team has substantial experience in delivering value-added solutions in intellectual property disputes, turnarounds, strategic partnerships and business development contracts.
Europlay Capital is extremely selective in its intake of new clients and assignments seeking to work with only those that can demonstrate extraordinary potential for success or to positively disrupt high value industries and markets.
I bolded the important parts for nervous nellies...
Also, from the site...
Mark Dyne
Chairman and Managing Director
Mark Dyne is Chairman and CEO of Europlay Capital Advisors. He has also served as CEO of Sega Gaming Technologies and Sega Ozisoft Pty Ltd., CEO and Chairman of Virgin Interactive, and as a member of the Board of Directors of Atrinsic based in New York.
Dyne was a member of the original board of Skype together with Janus Friis and Niklas Zennstrom until it was sold to eBay for over $2.6 billion, and subsequently led the negotiations for Joltid to become a major shareholder of Skype in its acquisition from eBay in November 2009 and joined the Board of Directors.
He is a member of the Board of Directors of Synthean, and is Chairman of Tag-It Pacific, Inc. MCV in January 2000 called him "The Deal Maker" and published his Ten Rules of Negotiating.
LET ALL THAT SINK IN
It looks like in the other deal that the merger price was announced prior to the filings we saw yesterday. Am I reading those filings correctly?
Good Dr...
I'm a bit confused by the ATRN events, and looking at the Edgar filings, it looked like the merger / acquisition price was announced prior to the filings that took place with ATRN on Friday.
Never been through one of these before, so any help or insight you can give as far as expectations would be greatly appreciated.
I'm telling you, this is going to spike really, really hard and then, BOOM, crash down. You'll have a few short days to leave the building.
This is nonsense if you ask me.
So a price of 17.4 million is fair value? With 40-50M in revenues??? In a hyper-growth sector??? I can tell you this, if buyout price is anything less than .50, I'm going to be pissed and pursue legal action, because this is manipulative theft is what it is. Wouldnt be hard to make a case in Federal Court.
From my reading, most popular valuation in hyper growth, emerging sector is revenue multiple. 2-3x revenue is what I'm looking for, or 1.14- 1.71.
This is why this neefs to be resolved quickly.
This theory is anything but plausible. Not happening.
So...outside of dart throwing or a magic 8 ball...explain that pps
I agree with the poster who said they dont want this hanging over their customers like direct buy, adidas, etc.
If all signs are pointing to debt paid off, growing affiliate network/customers and revenues drastically spiking, as they demonstrated strong growth in the last report, why in the world would people think this is defensive to stop the implosion of this company?
I think this is strategic...and Kenshoo or MSFT seem likely suitors.
You'll be able to see the tent I've pitched from anywhere in the country if this is over $1.14...
Some quick DD...
One of the most popular ways to value a company in a hyper growth sector, and in turn around mode, is the revenue multiple.
ATRN Competitor
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=VCLK+Key+Statistics
Valuation Methods
http://www.accountingtools.com/acquisition-valuation-methods
Given that ATRN is in a hyper growth sector, I think, after reading, that ATRN fair valuation is a multiple of revenues.
Given their direct competitor's multiple, 2-3x revenues seems legit.
That puts valuation anywhere between $1.14-1.72
Hope I'm right...
Could someone please look up the rules that were quoted in the filing and post them I'm not in front of a computer
In my car and driving. Somebody look up those rules
Form 15 out
Your exactly right. Timing is everything. And the time for this industry is right now. We may not get to share price that we would have gotten if the company remain public. But they have to give us a good valuation based on previous deals and research that was done.
Share price in my opinion is all riff raff right now.
power hour should be really, really fun!
Par Sar on the weekly flips today and next week is INSANE